Friday 7 October 2016

Sensex, Nifty losing bullish momentum – Weekly closing report-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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7 October 2016

I had mentioned in last week’s closing report that Nifty, Sensex might rally if weekly lows hold. The major indices of the Indian stock markets rallied strongly only on Monday. On the remaining days of the week, the indices failed to continue on the upward trajectory. It appeared that the momentum of the initial rally had been lost through the week. Trading volumes were high through the week. The trends of the major indices in the course of the week’s trading are given in the table below: The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
 
Weekly-Market-Copy-Friday-7-October-201 (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions) 
Positive global cues lifted the Indian equity markets on Monday. Buying was witnessed in automobile, capital goods and banking stocks. The BSE market breadth was skewed in favour of the bulls - with 2,228 advances and 660 declines. On the NSE, there were 1,316 advances, 155 declines and 42 unchanged. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Two and three wheeler major Bajaj Auto on Monday reported a decline of 2% in its total sales for September. According to the company, its total sales during the month under review stood at 376,765 units from an off-take of 384,400 units during the corresponding month of 2015. However, total domestic sales in September were up 21% to 255,592 units from 210,599 units sold during the like month of last year. The overall exports during the last month declined by 30% to 121,173 units from 173,801 units shipped out during the corresponding month of 2015. The company's total motorcycle sales during the month under review increased by one per cent to 331,976 units from 330,228 units sold in the like month of last year. In contrast, the overall commercial vehicle sales declined by 17% to 44,789 units from 54,172 units sold during September 2015. Bajaj Auto shares closed at Rs2,875.30, up 1.52% on the BSE.

Reduction in a key lending rate, coupled with short covering and value buying, pushed up the Indian equity markets on Tuesday. The key indices which opened on a higher note following positive cues from Asian markets, held on to their gains after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) announced a 25 basis points cut in one of its key lending rates. Buying was witnessed in interest-sensitive stocks in oil and gas, banking and metals. The BSE market breadth was tilted in favour of the bulls -- with 1,689 advances and 1,156 declines. On the NSE, there were 826 advances, 615 declines and 62 unchanged. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

 The Monetary Policy Committee of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cut a key lending rate by 25 basis points on Tuesday at the conclusion of its first meeting over two days, bringing much relief to commercial banks and India Inc. With the decision, the repurchase rate, or the short-term lending rate charged by the central bank on borrowings by commercial banks, stands lowered to 6.25%. The reverse repurchase rate also automatically stands lowered to 5.75%.  This was the first meeting of the new policy panel, constituted by the government with the primary mandate to ensure a retail inflation of 4%, plus or minus a band of two percentage points. The panel said in a statement that the decision taken on Tuesday was consistent with an accommodative stance, with the objective of achieving the inflation target.  All six members of the panel, chaired by RBI Governor Urjit Patel, voted in favour of the monetary policy decisions -- the minutes of which will be released on October 18. The markets responded to the decision with a spike in key indices. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Negative global indices, coupled with profit booking and lower than expected macro-data, dragged the Indian equity markets during the mid-afternoon trade session on Wednesday. Selling pressure was witnessed in banking, IT and oil and gas stocks. On the BSE, there were 1,739 advances, 1,142 declines and 123 unchanged. On the NSE, there were 841 advances, 598 declines and 43 unchanged. Investors were seen reluctant to chase prices after several days of rise, pointed out market analysts. Negative European markets and disappointing Services PMI figure, too, dragged the key indices lower. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Anil Ambani-led Reliance Infrastructure on Wednesday said it is selling its entire transmission assets to Adani Transmission. The deal size was not divulged, but banking sources estimated it at over Rs 2,000 crore. Reliance Infrastructure owns the country's first 100% private sector transmission project -- the Western Region System Strengthening Scheme -- in Maharashtra, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka. Reliance Infrastructure also owns 74 per cent in Parbati Koldam Transmission located in Himachal Pradesh and Punjab in a joint venture with Power Grid Corp. All three transmission projects have been completed and are revenue-generating, the company said in a statement. "The entire sale proceeds from the transaction will be utilized for debt reduction," the company said. "The transaction is in line with the strategic plan of monetizing non-core business and focus on growth areas like defence and engineering, procurement and construction business." The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Negative global markets, coupled with lower crude oil prices and a weak rupee, dented the equity markets during the mid-afternoon trade session on Thursday. Selling pressure was witnessed in automobile, banking and IT (information technology) stocks. The BSE market breadth was tilted in favour of the bulls -- with 1,366 advances and 1,506 declines. On the NSE, there were 658 advances, 960 declines and 255 unchanged. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions 

Initially on Thursday, the benchmark indices opened on a higher note in sync with their Asian peers. However, the global markets, especially the European markets, remained subdued over speculation on curtailment of stimulus measures by the European Central Bank (ECB). Besides, caution prevailed ahead of key US macro-data on jobs to be released on Friday. In addition, lower crude oil prices, profit booking and consolidation added to the downward trajectory.

Three public sector banks -- Indian Overseas Bank (IOB), Bank of India and Syndicate Bank -- on Wednesday announced reduction in their marginal cost of funds-based lending rate (MCLR) for various tenors. Indian Overseas Bank, in a statement, said its MCLR for one year was reduced to 9.50% from 9.55% with effect from October 1. Similarly, Syndicate Bank said it cut its MCLR for one year to 9.45% from 9.55% effective from October 7. On its part, Bank of India said its one year MCLR was 9.35% effective from October 7. 


Negative global indices and profit booking pulled the Indian equity markets lower on Friday. The key indices traded on a flat-to-negative note during the session, as selling pressure was witnessed in IT (information technology), oil and gas, and capital goods stocks. The BSE market breadth was tilted in favour of the bears -- with 1,387 declines and 1,315 advances. On the NSE, there were 783 advances, 835 declines and 257 unchanged. On Friday, the major indices of the Indian stock markets closed around 0.15% lower than Thursday’s close. To add to the stock market investors’ caution, U.S. employment growth was likely to have picked up in September, putting pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates and signalling that steam could be building in the economy ahead of America's presidential election.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Governance deficit leading to disaffection among people worldwide? -The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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7 October 2016
people-worldwide (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions) 

It would be no exaggeration to say that the world is passing through tough times. The picture today is vastly different from what we experienced as recently as a decade ago. Global economic growth is no longer guaranteed, with several economists talking of what they term as the “new normal”, referring of course to a reduced potential for growth of the world economy. Greater inequality has ensured that the benefits of growth over the last four decades are limited to a few and bypass the vast majority. Consequently, globalisation, which was considered as the one constant factor that would drive the global economy, is meeting a stiff challenge, as evidenced recently by Brexit (Britain withdrawing from the European Union- EU). The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The world is no longer unipolar or even bipolar, as it was during the cold war, with many strong power centres trying to assert themselves in global affairs, thereby making geopolitics very uncertain to understand and deal with. Intolerance, especially religious intolerance, is flaming passions that are difficult to control. Terrorism, including state sponsored terrorism, is a scourge that afflicts all nations. New problems, such as migration, have cropped up for which we do not seem to have any solution. 

The global governance structure that emerged post World War II is proving incapable of addressing these problems. The institutions established at that time including the United Nations Organizations (UNO), the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Trade Organisation (WTO) and the International Court of Justice (ICJ), amongst others, are being challenged by many countries that want a greater say in running these institutions, appropriate to their newfound economic clout. Significant increase in inequality and higher risks of unemployment are leading people to think more about the impact that various policies have on them as individuals rather than be satisfied with the perceived benefit to their country or the world at large. “What is in it for me” is a question being asked more often now than at any time in the recent past. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The main culprit leading to such a scenario has been poor governance, be it governance of companies, the government, international organisations, non-government organisations (NGOs), and, dare-I-say, even families. Human beings have proven incapable of managing organisations in a manner that matches what the corporate sector often terms best governance practices. Governance deficit leads to dissatisfaction amongst people especially amongst those who are adversely impacted and as is happening lately, provokes reactions that endanger the wellbeing of the entire community.

The corporate sector is familiar with the concept of ‘agency cost’. Organisations are established to serve the interest of its stakeholders. These stakeholders appoint professionals to manage organisations and achieve their objectives. More often than not, there is a divergence between the interest of the organisation and that of the managers, resulting in outcomes that are less than optimal, at times even contrary to the organisation’s objectives. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The UN receives maximum financial contribution from the US, which has a dominant say in its functioning. UN policies are often determined by what the US wants rather than what the UN’s own charter demands. Similarly, the heads of World Bank, IMF and Asian Development Bank (ADB) have traditionally been appointed by the US, Europe and Japan, respectively.  These organisations usually serve the interests of these respective countries more than those of other stakeholders or the countries they lend to. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Religious organisations suffer similarly. There is no reason for instance, why Tirumala Tirupati temple (and of course, many other places of worship) should accumulate the kind of wealth they have. Such wealth can be put to better uses but the hoarding of wealth gives the trustees and pundits a sense of power they do not want to let go. Even in families, especially Indian families, nothing can be done to dilute the hold and power the head of the family exercises over others. Resistance to change is the norm and individual initiative is nipped in the bud. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Decision making amongst governments across the world is predicated on its impact first on the head of the state and the party and only then would the impact on the nation be taken into consideration. The interests of the nation and the people who have voted them to power and whose welfare they are entrusted with, is often a mere afterthought. This trend has got accentuated, in recent times, due to the emergence of powerful leaders at the top – China’s President Xi Jinping, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Germany’s Chancellor Dr Angela Merkel, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, Turkey’s President Racep Tayyip Erdogans and many others. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Eventually, when the impact of agency cost breaches a certain threshold level, people react, as they seem to be doing lately. Their anger is manifesting across the globe in ways that was unthinkable earlier. The ‘Arab Spring’, the worldwide angst against bankers post 2008 financial crisis, the migrants’ crisis, anti-globalisation wave, anger against poor governance in India and even widespread terrorism; religion-based or otherwise, are in some ways an outcome of the governance deficit that characterises most institutions globally. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions 
 
people-worldwide1(The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions) 
Various studies have been carried out on the sub optimality of decision making by legislatures and the executive wing of the government. According to these studies, while the benefits of the decisions taken are concentrated and are available to a few, the costs are diffused and are borne by a vast number of people. While the vast majority of people show little inclination towards the problem, the small number of beneficiaries spends significant money, time and effort to ensure decision making in their favour. The decision to pump funds periodically into loss making public sector units (PSUs) and banks is of vital interest to the employees who fear a loss of employment and of other benefits, should the company become a sick entity. In addition, while the sums involved are large for the nation as a whole, individually, people do not have a significant stake and therefore accept such decisions without significant opposition. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The future governance will be determined by our ability, or inability to design government and organisation structures such that the interest of the stakeholders and those managing organisations can be aligned. Can we ensure that the diffused costs for the majority are not sacrificed at the altar of concentrated benefits to a few? Can we take along the vast majority who have little say in decision making in organisations and the government? Can we show enough empathy towards the less privileged and ensure that we do not give primacy to the interests of the elite over the vast majority? As Mahatma Gandhi had said, the true test of a decision is in its impact on the poorest and whether it can help in wiping their tears. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
 
people-worldwide2(The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions) 
Given the recent past, it is difficult to be optimistic of the future and despondency is a natural outcome. We must however take solace from the significant strides made for more than two hundred years since the industrial revolution that have vastly improved standards of living and otherwise made the world a better place to live in. The current period is a time of flux for all of us. Complex forces are at work, where the old established order is clashing with the demands of the new order. Such turmoil is normal during times of significant change. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


Society is a complex entity, which is displaying its dynamism during this period of change. From complicated interplay of various forces at work will emerge a new dawn that would hopefully set new standards of governance. Reaching there will involve struggle. During the period of struggle, things may appear bleak and may tend to compromise our efforts towards change. Our success in this struggle will depend on our ability to hang on to our faith in a brighter future despite the gloom and despair. Changes in society do not happen overnight, especially in a world as diverse as ours.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Google, Apple, Disney out from Twitter acquisition race: Report-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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7 October 2016

Twitter stocks fell significantly after Google and Walt Disney reportedly ruled out to acquire the struggling micro-blogging platform - leaving only Salesforce in the bidding race. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

According to a Re/Code report, Twitter's shares dropped 17 per cent in pre-market trading on Thursday after "deep-pocketed companies Google, Apple and Walt Disney" were reported to be out from the Twitter buyout race. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Twitter is expected to announce its next quarterly earnings on October 27.

According to earlier reports, Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff is "building a case to Salesforce.com Inc. investors and others that his company should be the buyer." The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The acquisition of Twitter - struggling to add new users amid stalled growth - may cost over $20 billion. It currently has 313 million monthly active users. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Salesforce is vying for a social networking platform in its kitty for long. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


The company, "which reached $6 billion in annual revenue faster than any other enterprise software company", offers customer service software, market research tools, email marketing systems and other products and several of them already use social media.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

India's spectrum auction ends in virtual failure, raises 11.6% of target-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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7 October 2016
telecom-spectrum (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions) 

India's telecom spectrum auction -- touted as the largest, given the quantum of airwaves on the block -- ended in a virtual failure, closing within five days with a total commitment of only Rs 65,789 ($9.8 billion) crore, or about 11.6 per cent of the expected Rs 5.66 lakh crore ($8.5 billion). The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The failure has been attributed to the high reserve price decided by the regulator and approved by the central government. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

"It is a failure to an extent. The largest chunk of spectrum didn't find any buyers because of serious miscalculation by the regulator and the central government on the current market value of 700 MHz spectrum. They overpriced it and the players decided to wait till the price becomes more realistic," said Mahesh Uppal, Director of telecom consultancy Com First.

A total 2,354 MHz of spectrum was put on block for e-auctioning, but only 965 MHz were sold -- or just 41 per cent of what was on offer. The money raised on the first day, of around Rs 53,000 crore, was an early portent that not everyone was enthusiastic about bidding for the airwaves. Even the earnest money deposit was low. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


The auction went through 31 rounds for seven bands --700 MHz, 800 MHz, 900 MHz, 1,800 MHz, 2,100 MHz, 2,300 MHz and 2,500 MHz. There were no takers for 700 MHz and 900 MHz -- as had been warned by experts and the industry alike.

But Communications Minister Manoj Sinha tried to put a positive spin on the money to be raised. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


"The total upfront payment due to the government is around Rs 32,000 crore. This is the highest in the last five years. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


"It's a big achievement that we could sell 965 MHz," he said.

Top investment banker Goldman Sachs had predicted that the total proceeds from the auction will be around $7 billion -- less than half of $16 billion obtained in the 2015 auction, and sharply below $85 billion if all spectrum was sold at the reserve price.

The Cellular Operators' Association of India (COAI) said the lack of enthusiasm on the operators' part was majorly due to unrealistic pricing, high debt and single-digit growth that the industry is currently reeling under. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


"We are hopeful the government and the Department of Telecommunications will take cognizance of the role a high reserve price had on bidding, as far as the 700 MHz is concerned, and will re-calibrate the price so that spectrum in the band could be put up for auction, maybe two years from now," said its Director General Rajan S Mathews.

Bharti Airtel, India's largest telecom services provider, on Thursday said that it has acquired 173.8 Mhz of spectrum across 1,800 MHz, 2,100 MHz and 2,300 MHz bands for a total consideration of Rs 14,244 crore. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


The new entrant, Reliance Jio, said it has acquired 269.2 MHz spectrum for Rs 13,672 crore.

"We have expanded our spectrum footprint thereby significantly enhancing capacity of our all-IP data strong network and ensuring world class services for all Indians. Jio is committed to taking India to global digital leadership by bringing the power of data to all Indians," said Reliance Industries Chairman Mukesh D. Ambani. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


Another key player, Idea Cellular, said it has acquired 349.20 MHz of spectrum for Rs 12,798 crore. "Idea is now well equipped to offer 4G services on its own spectrum across 20 service areas," it said. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


The auction would also fail to help in fully realising the revenue target of Rs 98,994.93 crore that had been provided for in the budget for this year against 'other communications services' -- the bulk of which is scheduled from the fee paid for spectrum.

Other companies participating in the auction were Vodafone India, Reliance Communications, Aircel and Tata Tele, all together furnishing a total earnest money of Rs 14,653 crore.

The total amount of money committed through the auction will not immediately come to the government as the operators have been given the option of both upfront and deferred payment.

The biggest telecom auction did not start too well on Saturday with subsequent days seeing only marginal increments taking the amount to Rs 65,789.12 crore on the fifth day, when the process had to be called off for lack of further interest. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


Highlights:

Band (MHz) Quantity put to auction (MHz) Quantity sold (MHz)

700 770 0

800 73.75 15

900 9.4 0

1800 221.6 174.8

2100 360 85

2300 320 320

2500 600 370
The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Over 3,800 flights cancelled in US ahead of Hurricane Mathew-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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7 October 2016

Bracing for a category four Hurricane Mathew, which left around 269 people dead in Haiti, airlines and airports in the US are on an war footing. Around 3,862 flights have been scheduled to be cancelled between Wednesday and Saturday. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Hurricane Matthew was forecast to make landfall on early Friday, between West Palm Beach and Cape Canaveral in Florida, NBCNews reported.

Meanwhile, the hurricane began tropical storm conditions in Florida -- with potentially catastrophic hurricane strike and "sandy-like" storm surge for parts of Florida, Georgia and South Carolina. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Although, the Miami International Airport and Palm Beach International Airport planned to remain open, the commercial scheduled flights were halted.

Even if the airports and airlines wanted to ensure quick restoration of schedules, in an extremely rare move, Ft. Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport shut down for the first time since Hurricane Katrina in 2005. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

As of Thursday evening, 3,862 flights were cancelled between Wednesday and Saturday, according to FlightAware.com, ABC news reported.

The storm had regained category four strength, with winds of 145 mph expected at landfall. There was a chance the winds could reach category five strength.

Florida Governor Rick Scott had warned on Thursday that the impact would be "catastrophic" and had urged 1.5 million people to evacuate. "This storm will kill you."

"This storm is a monster," he said. "Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts along portions of the east coast."


Scott had urged residents across the state's 580-mile Atlantic coastline to brace for the worst.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions