Friday 5 January 2018

Nifty, Sensex Continue to Be on An Uptrend – Weekly closing report-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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5 January  2018

I had mentioned in last week’s closing report that Nifty, Sensex were headed higher. The major indices of the Indian stock markets were directionless through the week and closed on Friday with small weekly gains over last Friday’s close. The trends of the major indices in the course of the week’s trading are given in the table below:
 
Weekly Indices (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)
On Monday, the major indices of the Indian stock markets suffered a correction. Profit booking along with low volumes and higher crude oil prices depressed key indices of the Indian equity markets on Monday -- the first trading day of 2018. According to market analysts, selling pressure was witnessed in banking, auto, metals, oil and gas and IT (information technology) stocks.

Selling pressure intensified in the last 45 minutes of trade. The indices traded in a narrow range in the initial part of the session due to lack of any major domestic and global cues and as most other Asian markets were shut due to the New Year holiday, observed market analysts.

On Tuesday, the key Indian equity indices were trading flat compared to Monday’s close. On the NSE, there were 520 advances, 1,053 declines and 28 unchanged.

Commercial vehicles major Ashok Leyland Ltd on Tuesday said its sales grew by 79% last month on a low base. In a statement issued here, the company said it sold 19,253 vehicles last month, up from 10,731 vehicles sold in December 2016. For the period April-December 2017, the company sold 116,141 vehicles up from 97,445 vehicles sold in December 2016. 

State-run gas transmission utility GAIL India (GAIL) said it has commissioned the country's second biggest rooftop solar power plant in Uttar Pradesh. The 5.76 megawatt peak (MWp) captive solar plant at its petrochemical complex at Pata will generate over 79 lakh kilowatt hour (KWh) of electricity, a GAIL statement said here. "With an expected PLF (plant load factor) of around 15 per cent annually, over 79 lakh KWh of electricity is targeted to be generated for captive use of India's largest gas-based petrochemicals plant," it said.

Coal India Ltd (CIL) reported that it has produced 383.93 million tonnes (mt) during the April to December period, but missed the target by 6%. However, the state-run miner achieved a 7.6% growth in off-take to 421.41 mt during the first nine months of the current fiscal as compared to 391.78 mt during same period last year. Its off-take for December only stood at 53.44 mt, missing the target of 53.84 mt for the last month by only 1%. CIL, which had a target to produce 406.58 mt during the nine month period, clocked a 1.6% growth in production from 377.77 mt produced in the same period last year, its provisional data showed. 

On Wednesday, the key indices of the Indian equity market closed on a flat note after investors booked profits in automobile, healthcare and oil and gas stocks. On the NSE, there were 1,177 advances, 602 declines and 80 unchanged. 

Reliance Industries (RIL) announced the successful commissioning of the world's largest 1.5 million tonne per annum (MTPA)-capacity ROGC complex at Jamnagar in Gujarat along with downstream plants and utilities. According to a brokerage report, monetisation of the ROGC complex, coupled with the petcoke gasification plant, which was in an advanced stage of commissioning, would boost the EBITDA, or operating income, of the company. However, RIL "should allow almost a full year of benefit to flow in fiscal 2018-19. Stabilisation of these projects would give a big boost to oil and gas earnings over 12-15 months", the report said.

The major indices of the Indian stock markets were range-bound on Thursday and closed with gains over Wednesday’s close. On the NSE, there were 999 advances, 520 declines and 26 unchanged. Positive global cues, coupled with buying in consumer durables, capital goods and metal stocks, lifted the key Indian equity indices during the mid-afternoon trade session on Thursday. Index heavyweights like Tata Steel, Larsen and Toubro, Dr Reddy's Lab, Coal India and State Bank of India were the top gainers on the BSE.

Global software major Infosys would pay its new Chief Executive Officer and Managing Director (CEO & MD) Salil S. Parekh Rs16.25 crore salary per annum, the IT (information technology) major said on Thursday. In a regulatory filing on the BSE, the company said in addition to Rs6.5 crore fixed pay and Rs9.75 crore variable pay, Parekh would get its restricted stock units (RSUs) or shares (Rs5 face value) equivalent to Rs3.25 crore as annual equity grant and annual performance equity grant worth Rs13 crore, taking the total package to Rs32.5 crore ($5 million) per annum for five years. Parekh's overall annual compensation ($5 million) is, however, 45% less than the $11.26 million (Rs73 crore) the company paid to Vishal Sikka per annum during his three-year tenure from August 1, 2014 to August 24, 2017. 

The government on Thursday sought Parliament's approval for additional expenditure of Rs80,000 crore for recapitalisation of public sector banks. Minister of State for Finance P.P. Chaudhary tabled the third batch of supplementary demands for grants for 2017-18 in Lok Sabha on behalf of Finance Minister Arun Jaitley. The supplementary grants were later tabled in the Rajya Sabha. The additional expenditure was being sought for meeting "additional expenditure towards recapitalisation of public sector banks through issue of government securities". The Union Cabinet had in October approved a Rs2.11 lakh crore recapitalisation plan for state-run banks in a stimulus package aimed at boosting economic growth. The government had moved the second batch of Supplementary Demands for Grants of Rs66,113 for 2017-18 in December.  

Key Indian equity indices on Friday traded at record high levels, as positive global cues and buying in auto, consumer durables and banking stocks gave a boost to investors' sentiments. On the NSE, there were 991 advances, 733 declines and 278 unchanged. Sentiments were supported by a positive trend seen in the Asian markets after the Dow Industrials on the Wall Street broke above the 25,000-level for the first time overnight, pointed out market analysts.


Taking the strictest action against Pakistan, the US has announced that it was freezing most security aid and the delivery of military equipment because Islamabad continues to shelter terrorists despite several warnings from President Donald Trump and other leaders. This could lead to colder Indo-Pak ties and could adversely affect the bull-trends in the Indian stock markets in the medium term.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Union Budget 2018 to be presented on February 1-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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5 January  2018

Finance Minister Arun Jaitle (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

Finance Minister Arun Jaitley will present the Union Budget for the financial year 2018-19 on February 1, aimed at boosting economic growth through additional spending.
The Budget session of Parliament will commence from January 29. President Ramnath Kovind will address the joint sitting of the two Houses on January 29 and the Economic Survey will be tabled on the same day, Parliamentary Affairs minister Ananth Kumar has said.
The first phase of the session will be from January 29 to February 9. After a recess, Parliament will meet again from March 5 to April 6, Kumar said.
The Winter session of Parliament ended today.
The Budget 2018 comes months after Prime Minister Narendra Modi's bold decision to roll out the Goods and Services Tax (GST) which has slammed the brakes on Asia's third-largest economy.
With uncertainty over how quickly the economy will recover, economists believe that the new Budget is likely to echo what India has become accustomed to in the past -- expansion of spending programmes rather than fiscal restraint.

Indian economy has shaken off the effects of demonetisation and GST rollout as the GDP growth surged by 6.3 percent in the September quarter compared to 7.5 percent in the corresponding period of the previous year. India’s economic growth had decelerated to three-year low of 5.7 percent in the June quarter.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

First estimate pegs GDP growth rate at 6.5% for FY2017-18-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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5 January  2018
 
GDP (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)
Central Statistics Office (CSO) has pegged the GDP growth rate during the FY2017-18 at 6.5% in its first advance estimates as compared to GDP growth rate of 7.1% in FY2016-17 at basic constant prices of 2011-12.

According to CSO, GVA is expected to grow at 6.1% during FY2017-18 against 6.6% in FY2016-17 at basic constant prices of 2011-12.

'Public administration, defence and other services’, ‘Trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting’, ‘Electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services’ and 'Financial, real estate and professional services' are expected to grow above 7% in FY2017-18.


On the other hand, ‘Manufacturing’, and ‘Construction’ are estimated to grow at 4.6% and 3.6%, respectively in FY2017-18. The growth rate for ‘Agriculture, forestry and fishing’ and ‘Mining and quarrying’ are expected to be 2.1% and 2.9%, respectively in FY2017-18.
The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

US Trade Deficit Hits $50.5 Billion, Biggest Since 2012-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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5 January  2018
Trade Gap (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

The U.S. trade deficit rose to $50.5 billion in November, the largest imbalance in nearly six years, as imports and exports both hit records.
The November deficit was 3.2 percent higher than October's $48.9 billion imbalance, the Commerce Department reported Friday. U.S. exports of goods and services were up 2.3 percent to an all-time high of $200.2 billion. Imports rose an even faster 2.5 percent to a record $250.7 billion.
A rising trade deficit, which reduces economic growth, means that the United States is buying more goods and services from other countries than it is selling them. President Donald Trump views America's massive trade deficits as a sign of economic weakness. He blames them on bad trade deals and abusive practices by China and other trade partners.
The politically sensitive deficit with China rose to $35.4 billion in November, the biggest goods deficit that the United States runs with any country and the largest monthly deficit with China since September 2015.
The overall deficit in November in goods and services was the largest since January 2012. Through the first 11 months of 2017, the monthly deficits total $513.6 billion, 11.6 percent above the deficit total for the same period in 2016. The United States had run up a $737.4 billion deficit in goods trade through November and had a $223.8 billion surplus in trade in services such as tourism and banking.
Trump contends that the major tax cut legislation Congress approved last month will help reduce the deficits by encouraging companies to bring production back to the United States. He has also vowed tougher enforcement of U.S. trade laws by imposing penalty tariffs on foreign goods from countries that are using unfair practices to compete against American workers and companies.
Trump has pledged to renegotiate what he sees as bad trade deals such as the North American Free Trade Agreement with Canada and Mexico, and go after countries he believes have rigged the global trade system to their advantage. But many private economists argue that trade deficits are largely caused not by flawed trade agreements or cheating by particular countries but by a bigger economic force — Americans spend more than they produce, and imports have to fill in the gap.
For November, the United States saw petroleum imports rise 10.1 percent to $17 billion, as the average price of a barrel of imported crude oil rose to $50.10, up from $47.26 in October.

U.S. exports of commercial aircraft, telecommunications equipment and American-made autos and auto parts were all up in November. U.S. manufacturers have been helped this year by a rebounding global economy and a weaker dollar which has made American goods more competitive on foreign markets.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Dow Breakthrough Buoys Markets Despite Mixed US Jobs Report-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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5 January  2018
South korea financial markets (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

A day after the Dow Jones industrial average finished above 25,000 for the first time, global stock markets remained firm Friday. A mixed U.S. jobs report did little to alter the underlying mood.
KEEPING SCORE: In Europe, Germany's DAX was up 1.1 percent at 13,319 while the FTSE 100 index of leading British shares rose 0.2 percent to 7,714. France's CAC 40 index was 0.8 percent higher at 5,458. U.S. stocks were poised to extend gains, with both Dow futures and the broader S&P 500 futures up 0.4 percent.
US JOBS: U.S. employers added 148,000 jobs in December, below market expectations for a 190,000 increase. Still, there are few signs that the U.S. economy has taken a turn for the worse and the unemployment rate remained at 4.1 percent for the third month in a row, its lowest level since 2000. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to carry on raising interest rates this year. Over the course of the year, employers added nearly 2.1 million jobs last year, bringing the unemployment rate down from 4.7 percent. Still, average job gains have slowed to 171,000 this year from a peak of 250,000 in 2014. That typically happens when the unemployment falls to ultra-low levels and fewer people are available to be hired.
ANALYST TAKE: "The slightly disappointing 148,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in December will not prevent the Fed from continuing to normalize interest rates, with the next hike probably coming in March," said Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics.
KOREAS: On Friday, the rival Koreas agreed to hold their first official dialogue in more than two years next week to discuss ways to cooperate on the upcoming Winter Olympics in the South. Earlier, the United States and South Korea agreed to delay annual joint military exercises until after the Games, being held in Pyeongchang from Feb. 9-25.
THE DAY IN ASIA: Hopes of an easing in tensions on the Korean peninsula shored up Asian markets earlier. Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 0.9 percent to 23,714.53 and South Korea's Kospi jumped 1.3 percent to 2,497.52. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index climbed 0.3 percent to 30,814.64 while the Shanghai Composite Index added 0.2 percent to 3,391.75. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 advanced 0.7 percent to 6,122.30.
OIL: Benchmark U.S. crude lost 57 cents to $61.44 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude, used to price international oils, fell 62 cents to $67.45 per barrel in London.

CURRENCIES: The euro was flat at $1.2055 while the dollar rose 0.4 percent to 113.14.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Thursday 4 January 2018

Nifty, Sensex may head higher – Thursday closing report-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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4 January  2018
 
BSE (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)
I had mentioned in Wednesday’s closing report that Nifty, Sensex were looking weak. The major indices of the Indian stock markets were range-bound on Thursday and closed with gains over Wednesday’s close. On the NSE, there were 999 advances, 520 declines and 26 unchanged.

Positive global cues, coupled with buying in consumer durables, capital goods and metal stocks, lifted the key Indian equity indices during the mid-afternoon trade session on Thursday. Index heavyweights like Tata Steel, Larsen and Toubro, Dr Reddy's Lab, Coal India and State Bank of India were the top gainers on the BSE. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

New orders and easing of inflationary pressures pushed the output of the Indian service sector higher during December, key macro-economic data showed on Thursday. According to the seasonally adjusted Nikkei India Services PMI Business Activity Index, the service sector's output returned to marginal growth during December due to growth in "Information & Communications and Finance & Insurance". Subsequently, the seasonally adjusted index registered an overall increase from 48.5 in November to 50.9 in December. An index reading of above 50 indicates an overall increase in economic activity and below 50 an overall decrease. The impact of higher Services PMI accelerated the overall private sector's output during December -- the highest since October 2016 -- and greater than the average recorded in 2017. Consequently, the seasonally adjusted Nikkei India Composite PMI Output Index rose to 53 in December from 50.3 in November. This is likely to lead to a long term bullish trend in the Indian stock markets.

Global software major Infosys will pay its new Chief Executive Officer and Managing Director (CEO & MD) Salil S. Parekh a whopping Rs16.25 crore salary per annum, the IT (information technology) major said on Thursday. In a regulatory filing on the BSE, the company said in addition to Rs6.5 crore fixed pay and Rs9.75 crore variable pay, Parekh would get its restricted stock units (RSUs) or shares (Rs5 face value) equivalent to Rs3.25 crore as annual equity grant and annual performance equity grant worth Rs13 crore, taking the total package to Rs32.5 crore ($5 million) per annum for five years. Parekh's overall annual compensation ($5 million) is, however, 45% less than the $11.26 million (Rs73 crore) the company paid to Vishal Sikka per annum during his three-year tenure from August 1, 2014 to August 24, 2017. Infosys shares closed at Rs1,015.00, down 0.62% on the NSE. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Airline major Jet Airways has grounded two pilots who allegedly indulged in physical altercation on-board a London-Mumbai flight which was operated on January 1, 2018. The incident involved the male pilot slapping his female counterpart inside the cockpit of the aircraft which was ferrying 324 passengers, including two infants and 14 crew. Subsequently, the incident has been reported to the aviation regulator Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA). "A misunderstanding occurred between the cockpit crew of Jet Airways flight 9W 119, London-Mumbai of January 1, 2018. However, the same was quickly resolved amicably and the flight with 324 guests, including 2 infants and 14 crew, continued its journey to Mumbai, landing safely," a Jet Airways' spokesperson said. "The airline has reported the matter to the DGCA and the concerned crew have been taken off flying duties pending investigation, that has since been initiated." Jet Airways shares closed at Rs865.20, down 0.62% on the NSE.

The government on Thursday sought Parliament's approval for additional expenditure of Rs80,000 crore for recapitalisation of public sector banks. Minister of State for Finance P.P. Chaudhary tabled the third batch of supplementary demands for grants for 2017-18 in Lok Sabha on behalf of Finance Minister Arun Jaitley. The supplementary grants were later tabled in the Rajya Sabha. The additional expenditure was being sought for meeting "additional expenditure towards recapitalisation of public sector banks through issue of government securities". The Union Cabinet had in October approved a Rs2.11 lakh crore recapitalisation plan for state-run banks in a stimulus package aimed at boosting economic growth. The government had moved the second batch of Supplementary Demands for Grants of Rs66,113 for 2017-18 in December.  The S & P BSE Bankex closed at 28,777.47, up 0.51% on the BSE.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


Govt to seek Parliament's nod for $12.6bn Bank Recap Bonds-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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4 January  2018
 
Bank (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

The central government has sought Parliament's nod for $12.6 billion Bank Recap Bonds. This is a follow up of a mega recapitalisation plan that was announced by the government in October 2017 to counter the rising bad loans of public sector banks. The plan is worth Rs2.11 lakh cr out of which Rs1,35,00cr will be in the form of recapitalisation bonds.

The ratification for recapitalization bonds would act significantly positive for the PSU Banks and the stocks would remain positive on this news. The capital infusion is much needed as it would aid these banks to improve their capital adequacy. As a consequence, it would also improve their loan book growth for the coming years, besides giving room to provide for bad loans.


Nifty PSU Bank Index has climbed over 1.5% after recap bond news. At the time of filing, IDBI Bank was up 6%, BoB, PNB were up by 3% each, Bank of India, Canara Bank were up 2% each, and SBI was up 1.5%
The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Government looks to split GAIL into two units-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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4 January  2018
 
GAIL (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

The government is considering to split GAIL (India) Ltd by spinning off the marketing operations into a separate company, according to media sources. The plan is being discussed in the petroleum ministry, as the central government is unhappy with the state-run player's performance in building a pipeline network in addition to a possible conflict of interest in its role as a infrastructure provider and carrier. The plan to split the company had been discussed in the past too but it did not materialise.

The sources further added that the deal could help the government garner around Rs35,000cr by way of disinvestment receipts. Bharat Petroleum and Indian Oil are looking to take over GAIL, as per media reports of last month. The reports, however, said that the government would first prefer to unbundle GAIL before deciding on consolidation.

There is no formal decision on the issue, however it will be finalised only after consultation with all stakeholders. As of now, several private players are not happy with GAIL’s dominant position.

According to GAIL, its gas marketing and transmission businesses operate at arms length, and hence do not need to be separated.


GAIL’s marketing business formed 71% of its FY17 total sales and 25% of its FY17 segmental PBIT. We value GAIL’s marketing business at an enterprise value of Rs63 per share and its transmission business at an enterprise value of Rs220 per share.
The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Government has a 54.89% stake in GAIL India. GAIL India’s current market cap is Rs84,041cr.
The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

US Businesses Add A Strong 250,000 Jobs In December-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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4 January  2018
Jobs (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

U.S. companies closed out 2017 with strong hiring in December, adding the most jobs in nine months. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
Payroll processor ADP says that businesses added 250,000 jobs last month, up from 185,000 in November. The gains were led by robust hiring in health care, professional services such as accounting and engineering, and retail.
The figures suggest that businesses are optimistic about the economic outlook and are staffing up to meet greater demand. ADP's data bodes well for the government's monthly jobs report, to be released Friday. Economists forecast that will show a gain of 189,000 jobs, according to a survey by data provider FactSet. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
The unemployment rate is projected to remain at a 17-year low of 4.1 percent.
The ADP numbers cover business payrolls and don't include government employment. They often diverge from the official figures.
The U.S. economy is growing at a steady clip, bolstered by a solid holiday shopping season. Most economists expect the Trump administration's tax cuts to accelerate growth in 2018 by roughly one-third a percentage point.
That should bring down the unemployment rate to as low as 3.5 percent by the end of 2018, economists predict, which would be the lowest in nearly a half-century. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, which helps compile the ADP data, said that healthy consumer spending over the holidays helped lift hiring.
A category that includes retailers and shipping companies added 45,000 jobs, the most since last December. Online shopping has spurred shipping companies such as UPS to ramp up hiring over the holidays.
Consumers likely spent more because they anticipate some income gains from the tax cuts, Zandi said. Strong gains in the stock market in December also likely helped. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

"My sense is the tax cuts probably have their fingerprints on the employment numbers," Zandi said.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Global Stocks Rise On Strong European, Chinese Data-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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4 January  2018

Japan financial markets (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)
Global stocks rose on Thursday after strong economic data from Europe and China, while shares in chipmaker Intel were expected to fall again over a data security scare. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
KEEPING SCORE: France's CAC 40 added 1.3 percent to 5,400, while Germany's DAX gained 1.1 percent to 13,122. Britain's FTSE 100 edged nearly 0.2 percent higher to 7,682. U.S. shares were also set for gains, with Dow futures up 0.4 percent and S&P 500 futures adding 0.2 percent.
ECONOMIC DATA: A survey of the manufacturing and services sectors in the 19-country eurozone saw business activity rise in December to its highest in nearly seven years. The survey suggests the bloc's economic upswing is still gathering pace and is shared across the region. A similar survey in China of the services sector also rose, unexpectedly. That suggests the country will be more resilient to a slowdown in industrial production.
ASIA'S DAY: Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 advanced 3.3 percent to finish at 23,506.33 in the celebratory first trading session of the year. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 edged 0.1 percent higher to 6,077.10. South Korea's Kospi lost 0.8 percent to 2,466.46, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng added 0.5 percent to 30,736.48, while the Shanghai Composite gained 0.5 percent to 3,385.71.
CHIPMAKERS: Shares in Intel fell 3.4 percent on Wednesday and were down another 1.9 percent in premarket trading Thursday after security researchers at Google discovered serious security flaws in its computer processors. Though a fix was expected, it's unclear what other chipmakers might be affected. Rival AMD said it believes its chips are safe and saw its shares rise 3.1 percent in premarket trading after a 5.2 percent gain the previous day.
ENERGY: Benchmark U.S. crude rose 15 cents to $61.78 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It added $1.26 on Wednesday. Brent crude, used to price international oils, shed 2 cents to $67.82 a barrel in London. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

CURRENCIES: The dollar rose to 112.62 yen from 112.36 yen. The euro rose to $1.2070 from $1.2014.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions