Friday 8 December 2017

Nifty, Sensex May be Headed Higher over the Next Few Days– Weekly closing reportThe Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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8 December  2017

I had mentioned in last week’s closing report that Nifty, Sensex might remain weak. The major indices of the Indian stock markets were volatile over the week and closed with gains on Friday over last Friday’s close. The trends of the major indices in the course of the week are given in the table below:
 
Weekly Indices (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)
Buying in IT (information technology), metals and healthcare stocks pushed the key Indian equity indices higher on Monday. According to market observers, a surge in stocks of IT major Infosys, along with other index heavyweights like Tata Motors, Bharti Airtel, HDFC and Hindustan Unilever added to the upward trajectory of the key indices. On the NSE, there were 562 advances, 946 declines and 53 unchanged.

Indian shares opened higher on Monday tracking the gains in Infosys, which surged 3% after the company over the weekend said it has appointed Capgemini's Salil Parekh as Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer effectively from 8 January 2018. However, benchmark indices gave up some of their early gains as Reliance Industries, Larsen and Toubro and Sun Pharma came under selling pressure within minutes of opening trade, pointed out market analysts.

Broadly negative global cues, along with selling pressure in auto, consumer durables and capital goods stocks pulled the key Indian equity indices lower on Tuesday. Market observers said investors traded with caution ahead of the outcome of the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) two-day policy review meet on Wednesday. On the NSE, there were 580 advances, 944 declines and 43 unchanged.

To push sales during the year-end period, automobile major Tata Motors said that it has launched a 'Mega Offer Max Celebration' sales offer. According to the company, the offer provides opportunity to customers "to drive home a Tata car at a down payment of INR 1 and enjoy savings of upto 1 lakh, depending on the model and variant". "Tata Motors has tied up with leading financiers and banks to offer up to 100% funding through attractive finance schemes on the passenger vehicles," the company said in a statement.

International ratings agency Fitch lowered the country's GDP growth projection for 2017-18 to 6.7%. According to Fitch's December Global Economic Outlook (GEO), the global ratings agency reduced the growth forecast for the fiscal year to end-March 2018 (FY18) to 6.7% from 6.9%. "The Indian economy picked up in 3Q17, with GDP growing by 6.3% yoy (year-on-year), up from 5.7% in 2Q17. However, the rebound was weaker than we expected, and we have reduced our growth forecast for the fiscal year to end-March 2018 (FY18) to 6.7% from 6.9% in the September GEO," the ratings agency said in its report.

On Wednesday, the key indices were dragged lower by interest-rate sensitive stocks like banking, metals and capital goods. In its penultimate monetary policy review of the fiscal, RBI on Wednesday maintained status quo on key lending rates while citing concerns over rising inflation. It also retained economic growth projection for the 2017-18 fiscal. RBI’s move came even as Indian industry expressed disappointment while the government said a neutral policy stance reflected recognition of the fact that inflation remained "firmly under control". The central bank said its repurchase rate, or the short-term lending rate for commercial banks, had been maintained at 6%. Consequently, the reverse repo rate remained at 5.75%. RBI also raised the inflation forecast for the remainder of the current fiscal to 4.3%-4.7%. It said "two of the key factors determining the cost of living conditions and inflation expectations -- food and fuel inflation -- edged up in November".  "Accordingly, the MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) decided to keep the policy repo rate on hold," the fifth bi-monthly monetary policy statement said. "The decision of the MPC is consistent with a neutral stance of monetary policy in consonance with the objective of achieving the medium-term target for consumer price index (CPI) inflation of 4%... while supporting growth," it added.

Overcoming the previous session's losses, the key Indian equity indices on Thursday surged to trade with appreciable gains as positive cues from the Asian markets and value buying in auto, consumer durables and capital goods stocks lifted investors' risk-taking appetite. According to market observers, buying in index heavyweights like Maruti Suzuki, Bajaj-Auto, Tata Steel, and Larsen and Toubro lifted the benchmark indices. On the NSE, there were 1,219 advances, 474 declines and 296 unchanged.

Extending gains for the second consecutive session, key Indian equity indices on Friday traded on a higher note as positive cues from the Asian markets and value buying in metals, auto and banking stocks gave a boost to investors' sentiments. Top gainers on the BSE market breadth were Tata Steel, Maruti Suzuki, HDFC Bank, Bharti Airtel and Sun Pharma. All sectoral indices are in the green, led by consumer durables, bank, metal and auto. On the NSE, there were 1,017 advances, 677 declines and 298 unchanged. On Friday, the major indices closed with gains of around 1% over Thursday’s close.

The Jet Airways Group reported a net profit of Rs71 crore for the second quarter (Q2) of 2017-18, backed by growth in capacity, revenues as well as accompanying reduction in non-fuel costs. According to the Jet Airways Group, its net debt reduced by Rs194 crore during the same quarter.


In a massive relief to Indian exporters, the government announced liberal incentives of Rs8,450 crore ($1.3 billion) in its mid-term review of the five-year foreign trade policy (FTP) that was rolled out in 2015 and aimed at increasing the export of goods and services to $900 billion by 2020. Exports, meanwhile, declined from $468 billion to $437 billion between 2014-15 and 2016-17.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Tata Motors Nov global wholesales sales up 22% YoY-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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8 December  2017
 
TATA Motor (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

Tata Motors Group global wholesales in November 2017, including Jaguar Land Rover, were at 1,12,473 nos., higher by 22%, over November 2016.

Global wholesales of all Tata Motors’ commercial vehicles and Tata Daewoo range in November 2017 were at 40,845 nos., higher by 51%, over November 2016.
The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Global wholesales of all passenger vehicles in November 2017 were at 71,628 nos., higher by 10%, compared to November 2016.

Global wholesales for Jaguar Land Rover were 54,244 vehicles (JLR number for November 2017 includes CJLR volumes of 8,179 units).

Jaguar wholesales for the month were 12,287 vehicles, while Land Rover wholesales for the month were 41,957 vehicles.

The stock ended at Rs 411.05, up by Rs 8.9 or 2.21% from its previous closing of Rs 402.15 on the BSE. The scrip opened at Rs 406.75 and touched a high and low of Rs 413.7 and Rs 406.5 respectively.

TML, on the consolidated level, derives ~80% of its revenue from the wholly owned subsidiary, JLR, which had witnessed EBITDA margin decline in FY16 and FY17 on account of weakness in volumes growth, model mix and forex losses.
The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Standalone business (~80% CV and PV) has experienced market share losses and is expected to turnaround the trend on account of better acceptance of SCR technology (CV) and series of new launches in PV segment (Tigor/Hexa/Tiago).
The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

PACL Committee appoints retired judge RS Virk for hearing objections and representations-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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8 December  2017
 
PACL (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)
A Committee set up by Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) under the Chairmanship of Justice (Retd.) RM Lodha for disposing of the properties of the company, PACL Ltd has appointed retired judge RS Virk for hearing objections and representations send to the Committee.

In a release, SEBI said, “While the PACL Committee had undertaken the process of selling the properties of PACL, it has received objections and representations in respect of this work being undertaken by it. In this regard, the PACL Committee has appointed RS Virk, District Judge (Retd) for hearing the objections/ representations in respect of the work being undertaken by the PACL Committee.” The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

SEBI has asked all applicants of PACL Committee to put up their cases before Judge Virk. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


Objections or representations in respect of the work being undertaken by the PACL Committee can be sent to the Office of RS Virk, District Judge (Retd.) at fourth floor, Plot No.226, A-2, Sec – 17, Dwarka, New Delhi.  A cause list providing the list of matters to be heard by the Judge will be provided on the SEBI website on a daily basis. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Japan Economy Gains Momentum, Grows 2.5 Percent In July-Sept-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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8 December  2017

Japan economy (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)
Japan's economy is gaining momentum, expanding at a 2.5 percent annual pace in July-September, the government said Friday.

The upward revision from an earlier estimate of 1.4 percent growth reflects higher business investment and rising inventories, it said.

In quarterly terms the world's third-largest economy expanded at a 0.6 percent pace, twice the original estimate, the report said.

Private demand rose 0.3 percent from the previous quarter; the earlier estimate had it flat. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

A revival in demand across the region and in other major markets has helped breathe new life into Japan's recovery. However, annual growth in net exports was unchanged in this latest report, at 0.6 percent.

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has announced plans for longer-term efforts to support growth and productivity as the nation ages and its population declines — a trend that is causing alarm but also creating new business opportunities in automation and services for Japan's fast growing population of senior citizens.

The economy is in its longest expansion in years, with unemployment below 3 percent, but growth remains meager and inflation is still well below the 2 percent official target. Economists say that wages are rising too slowly to ignite faster price increases, and Abe and other officials have urged companies to use huge cash piles that have accumulated over the past few years to help spur growth through investment and wage hikes. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Other data reported Friday showed year-on-year growth in cash income slowing to 0.6 percent in October from 0.9 percent in September, mainly due to lower bonus payments. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Productivity is rising just 0.4 percent in annual terms, not fast enough to force companies to raise prices, Marcel Thieliant of Capita Economics said in a commentary. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


"However, the economy is running into capacity constraints and firms face increasingly severe staff shortages. The upshot is that the expansion should slow again before long," he said.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Strong US Jobs Figures, Brexit Hopes, Lift Global Stocks-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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8 December  2017

South korea financial market (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)
Strong U.S. jobs figures combined with progress in Britain's talks to leave the European Union and hopes surrounding the formation of the next German government to shore up global stock markets on Friday.

KEEPING SCORE: In Europe, Britain's FTSE 100 was up 0.7 percent to 7,370 while Germany's DAX added 1.1 percent to 13,182. The CAC 40 of France rose 0.3 percent to 5,303. U.S. stocks were poised for solid gains at the open with Dow futures and the broader S&P 500 futures up 0.3 percent.

US JOBS: U.S. employers added a robust 228,000 jobs in November, a sign of the job market's enduring strength in its ninth year of economic recovery. And the unemployment rate remained at a 17-year low of 4.1 percent, the Labor Department reported. The figures have reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will not only raise interest rates again next week and that there could be another three or four rate hikes next year too.

ANALYST TAKE: "An accompanying pick-up in wages, however, could also prove a portent of higher inflation, with taller interest rates surely on the horizon over the coming months," said Dennis de Jong, managing director at UFX.com.
BREXIT: British Prime Minister Theresa May announced that an agreement between Britain and the European Union guarantees the rights of 3 million EU citizens in the U.K. and 1 million Britons elsewhere in the bloc. It also ensures there will be no hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland after Brexit. The European Union's chief negotiator welcomed the breakthrough but said there was still work to be done.

GERMANY POLITICS: Germany's center-left Social Democrats have agreed to open talks with Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservatives on whether to renew their governing coalition or at least to support a minority government. Party leader Martin Schulz, Merkel's defeated challenger in Germany's Sept. 24 election, secured a party congress's agreement to a motion calling for talks on "whether and in what form" the party could support a new government.

ASIA'S DAY: Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 index rose 1.4 percent to 22,811.08, while South Korea's Kospi eked out a 0.1 percent gain to 2,464.00. Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 1.2 percent to 28,639.85 and the Shanghai Composite in mainland China added 0.6 percent to 3,289.99. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 climbed 0.3 percent to 5,994.40. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

ENERGY: Oil futures retreated. Benchmark U.S. crude climbed 89 cents to $57.58 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange while Brent crude, the international standard, picked up 93 cents to $63.12 a barrel in London.

CURRENCIES: The euro fell 0.2 percent to $1.1751 while the dollar rose 0.2 percent to 113.34 yen.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Thursday 7 December 2017

Nifty, Sensex to Head Higher – Thursday closing report-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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6 December  2017

I had mentioned in Tuesday’s closing report that Nifty, Sensex might rally if Tuesday’s low holds. On Wednesday, the Indian stock markets suffered a correction and closed with losses over Tuesday’s close. However, the major indices of the Indian stock markets rallied on Thursday and closed with gains of more than 1% over Wednesday’s close. The trends of the major indices in the course of Thursday’s trading are given in the table below: The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
 
Major Indices (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)
Overcoming the previous session's losses, the key Indian equity indices on Thursday surged to trade with appreciable gains as positive cues from the Asian markets and value buying in auto, consumer durables and capital goods stocks lifted investors' risk-taking appetite. According to market observers, buying in index heavyweights like Maruti Suzuki, Bajaj-Auto, Tata Steel, and Larsen and Toubro lifted the benchmark indices. On the NSE, there were 1,219 advances, 474 declines and 296 unchanged. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Earlier on Wednesday, the key indices were dragged lower by interest-rate sensitive stocks like banking, metals and capital goods. RBI (Reserve Bank of India) held the key interest rates unchanged.

Full service carrier Jet Airways announced that it has started a seven-day fare sale with discount of up to 30 per cent across its international network. The airline said it will offer the discounted fares on the prevailing lowest base fare for travel in both premiere and economy classes. "The seven-day fare sale from December 5-11, 2017, will be valid for international travel commencing from January 15, 2018 onwards," the airline said in a statement. The shares of the airline closed at Rs695.20, up 1.83% on the NSE.

Indian software major Wipro said it was opening its third office in London to offer digital print on demand (pod) services to its regional customers. "The new office near the Broadgate Circle will be in addition to our two offices on City Road and Sheldon Square in London, with 1,800 employees," said Wipro Digital Vice-President Rajan Kohli at a trade event. Pod is a digital printing technology used for printing books and other publications for online sales worldwide. Terming the opening of the third office a milestone in the IT major's growth journey, Kohli said the latest digital pod in London would attract design and engineering talent to serve its clients in Britain and Europe. Wipro shares closed at Rs280.90, down 0.57% on the NSE. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Automobile major Tata Motors rolled out the first batch of the compact sedan Tigor's electric variant from its Sanand facility in Gujarat. According to the company, Tigor EVs (electric vehicles) are being manufactured for the Union government's order of electric vehicles from the Energy Efficiency Services Ltd (EESL), an entity under the Ministry of Power. Flagging off the batch of EVs, N. Chandrasekaran, Chairman, Tata group was quoted in a statement as saying: "As we work together to build the future of e-mobility in India, I am confident that our customers will respond very favourably to this electric model.". Tata Motors shares closed at Rs402.55, up 1.39% on the NSE.

In its penultimate monetary policy review of the fiscal, the RBI on Wednesday maintained status quo on key lending rates while citing concerns over rising inflation. It also retained economic growth projection for the 2017-18 fiscal. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) move came even as Indian industry expressed disappointment while the government said a neutral policy stance reflected recognition of the fact that inflation remained "firmly under control". The central bank said its repurchase rate, or the short-term lending rate for commercial banks, had been maintained at 6 per cent. Consequently, the reverse repo rate remained at 5.75%. The RBI also raised the inflation forecast for the remainder of the current fiscal to 4.3%-4.7%. It said "two of the key factors determining the cost of living conditions and inflation expectations -- food and fuel inflation -- edged up in November".  "Accordingly, the MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) decided to keep the policy repo rate on hold," the fifth bi-monthly monetary policy statement said. "The decision of the MPC is consistent with a neutral stance of monetary policy in consonance with the objective of achieving the medium-term target for consumer price index (CPI) inflation of 4%... while supporting growth," it added. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The top gainers and top losers of the major indices are given in the table below:
 
Top Gainer (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)
The closing values of the major Asian indices are given in the table below: The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
Asian Indices (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)



Domestic auto-component industry to grow 9-11% in FY18-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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6 December  2017
 
ICRA (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

The Rs2.90 trillion (FY2017) domestic auto component industry is expected to grow by 9-11% during FY2018e, driven by robust growth expectation in domestic passenger vehicles (PV)s and two wheelers (2W) segment. According to an ICRA note, after considering the increasing content per vehicle due to various technological advancement as well as regulatory measures (emission, safety regulations), the growth in the auto component industry will be relatively higher than the underlying growth in the automotive industry in the medium to long term. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

ICRA’s sample of 48 auto ancillaries, constituting around 25% of the industry’s turnover, witnessed revenue growth of about 13.5% (revenue) during Q2 FY2018e. The same was driven by higher realization in the backdrop of steady increase in commodity prices, whereas volumetric growth was in the mid-single digit. Overall, during H1FY2018, the sample space grew by 9.5% which is in line with 9%-11% growth estimate for FY2018.

Exports, which account for 28% of industry’s demand, with the US and Europe making up for 60%, witnessed a decline. This was sharper in the US M&HCV market during H2 CY2015 and CY16. However, the trend seems somewhat reversed now with incremental order inflow for class-8 trucks being encouraging over the last six months. As for European markets, new PV and CV registration numbers have witnessed marginal growth YTD CY2017 and their growth outlook remains tepid over the near to medium term. Exports will also be affected by rupee appreciation.

Commodity prices have been rising over the last 4-5 quarters, thereby pressurising industry’s profitability. Amongst all ancillaries, tyre manufacturers were the worst impacted due to sharp volatility in rubber prices which has peaked around Rs 160/Kg in Q4FY17, though it subsequently moderated to around Rs 130/Kg level at present. Easing rubber prices has helped operating margins to recover during Q2FY18 after a five year low level during Q1FY18. Other commodities like steel and lead also remained at elevated level and continued to pressurize profitability of players. Nevertheless, strong revenue growth during Q2FY2018 has offset some impact of commodity price pressure. Though overall OPM continues to remain lower than last year’s level, most auto ancillaries have witnessed sequential improvement in operating margins.

ICRA expects industry-wide credit profile trends to remain stable, supported by robust demand from the OEM segment in the near term. Supported by healthy cash accruals, gearing as well as coverage indicators for the industry have improved considerably over the past two years. However given surplus capacities, the industry has been on a consolidation mode over the last two years, taking steps towards deleveraging their balance sheet. With select OEMs exploring inorganic growth opportunities in India as well as in overseas market to support growth, as well as to diversify its clientele and product portfolio, some incremental leverage may be expected. Overall ancillaries are concentrated on moving up the value chain to mitigate profitability and competitive pressure in the intensely competitive industry.

Incremental investments by auto ancillaries are primarily towards new order/platform related requirement or debottlenecking of existing capacity. Few have started investing keeping in mind the requirements for BS VI (in 2020), CAFE norms and electric vehicles in 2030.   
The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

L&T’s Hydrocarbon Engineering arm awarded order worth Rs1,600cr-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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6 December  2017
 
L&T (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

L&T Hydrocarbon Engineering Ltd (LTHE), a wholly owned subsidiary of Larsen & Toubro Limited, has won an order worth over Rs1,600 from Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited, Visakhapatnam refinery.

The project is a part of HPCL Visakh Refinery Modernisation Project (VRMP) and involves Engineering, Procurement, Construction and Commissioning of 3.053 MMTPA Full Conversion Hydrocracker Project.

The order reinforces L&T’s unique capability to deliver ‘design to build’ engineering and construction solutions across the hydrocarbon spectrum.

The Hydrocarbon segment contributed to ~9% of the consolidated revenue of the group in FY17. The company has a total order book of Rs2575bn as on September 30, 2017. Order book under Hydrocarbon segment constituted 10% of the total order book as on September 30, 2017. The Hydrocarbon segment posted an EBITDA margin of 8.8% in H1FY18. The stock is trading at a P/E of 23.48.
The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The stock is trading at a price of Rs1207.10, up by 1.33% or Rs16, on NSE at 9.40am
The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Bitcoin hits $15,000 for first time, jumps over 50% in just one week-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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6 December  2017

Bitcoin surge (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

Bitcoin ploughed past $15,000 to a fresh record on Thursday, triggering a warning the cryptocurrency was "like a charging train with no brakes" and prompting fresh concern about its looming launch on mainstream markets.
It struck a new high of $15,075 in European trading hours, according to Bloomberg News. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
The rally came just a day after the virtual currency, which has been used to buy everything from an ice cream to a pint of beer, hit the $12,000 mark for the first time, while it has soared more than 50 percent in value in just one week.
Bitcoin -- which came into being in 2009 as a bit of encrypted software and has no central bank backing it and no legal exchange rate -- has risen from a 2017 low of $752 in mid-January and surged dramatically in the past month.
The increased interest has been driven by growing acceptance among traditional investors of an innovation once considered the preserve of computer nerds and financial experts. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
But some, including the US Federal Reserve, have warned against dabbling in bitcoin as it could threaten financial stability, and fears of a bubble have increased as the price has soared.
"Bitcoin now seems like a charging train with no brakes," said Shane Chanel, from Sydney-based ASR Wealth Advisers. "There is an unfathomable amount of new participants piling into the cryptocurrency market."
But he warned: "Once the hype slows down, we will most certainly see some sort of correction."There are mounting concerns about its introduction into the mainstream financial system after US regulator the Commodity Futures Trading Commission last week cleared the way for bitcoin futures to trade on major exchanges, a decision which analysts say has helped spur the recent rally.
Bitcoin is to be offered on the CBOE Futures Exchange from this weekend and on the world`s biggest futures venue, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), from December 18. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
The Futures Industry Association, which groups some of the world`s biggest derivatives brokerages, criticised the plans in a letter to the regulator, saying that contracts are being rushed through without the risks being properly weighed up.
"A more thorough and considered process would have allowed for a robust public discussion among clearing member firms, exchanges and clearing houses," said the association.
Transactions happen when heavily encrypted codes are passed across a computer network. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
The NiceHash marketplace was meanwhile on Thursday investigating a security breach resulting in the theft of bitcoin.
"Clearly, this is a matter of deep concern and we are working hard to rectify the matter in the coming days," NiceHash said in a statement.
"In addition to undertaking our own investigation, the incident has been reported to the relevant authorities and law enforcement and we are co-operating with them as a matter of urgency." The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
Bitcoin and other virtual currencies use blockchain, which records transactions that are updated in real time on an online ledger and maintained by a network of computers. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
In 2014 major Tokyo-based bitcoin exchange MtGox collapsed after admitting that 850,000 coins -- worth around $480 million at the time -- had disappeared from its vaults. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Bitcoin`s use on the underground Silk Road website, where users could use it to buy drugs and guns, also raised suspicions about the virtual money.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions