Friday 14 July 2017

Nifty, Sensex in consolidation mode – Weekly closing report-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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14 July 2017

I had mentioned in last Friday’s closing report that Nifty, Sensex closed on a flat note. Indian shares entered into consolidation mode after a four-day rally that took benchmark indices to record highs. The trends of the major indices in the course of the week’s trading are given in the table below:
Weekly Indices (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

Positive global cues and buying in banking, IT (information technology) and capital goods stocks pushed the Indian equity markets to fresh highs during the mid-afternoon trade session on Monday. Equity benchmarks started-off on a strong note with both equity benchmark indices hitting record highs. Global cues and buying support aided in the markets' rise, pointed out market analysts. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Full-fledged trading resumed on the National Stock Exchange of India (NSE) during the mid-afternoon session on Monday after a technical glitch impacted trading during an early-morning session. The stock exchange said that the technical glitch impacted trading on its Cash and Future and Option (F&O) segment during the early-morning trade session, and that the glitch has been resolved. The NSE said that all its market segments were operational as of 12.30 p.m.

India's steel consumption grew by 4.6% to nearly 21 million tonne in the first quarter of the current fiscal over the same period in 2016, while the country's steel exports jumped by nearly 66% in the April-June period, a Ministry report said. "India's consumption of total finished steel saw a growth of 4.6% in April-June 2017 at 20.999 mt (million tonne) over same period of last year, under the influence of a rising production for sale," the report said.

 The Ministry's study also pointed out overall consumption at 7.204 mt in June was down by four per cent over the previous month (May 2017) and was up by 5.3% over corresponding month (June 2016) last year. "Export of total finished steel was up by 65.9% in April-June 2017 at 1.387 mt over same period of last year. Overall exports in June 2017 at 0.648 mt was up by 0.9% over May 2017 but was up by 20.2 per cent over June 2016," said the report of Joint Plant Committee. However, the import of total finished steel at 1.715 mt in June quarter declined by 6.4% over same period in 2016. Overall imports at 0.653 mt in June was up by 17% over May and increased year-on-year by 3.2% over same month last year (June 2016). India was a net exporter of total finished steel in April-June 2017, the report said. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

After a huge fall in sugar production 2016-17, that forced the import of 500,000 tonnes, official and industry circles expect the upcoming "sugar year" to be sweeter, thanks to a good monsoon and signals of better yield from the field. According to the officials in the Agriculture Ministry and organisations representing private and cooperative sugar factories, output in 2017-18 (the "sugar year" starts from October) is to cross 25 million tonnes, almost 25% higher than in 2016-17. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The major indices of the Indian stock markets were range-bound on Tuesday and closed with minor gains over Monday’s close. Positive global cues and buying in automobile, capital goods and IT (information technology) stocks pushed the Indian equity markets to fresh highs during the mid-afternoon trade session on Tuesday. Equity benchmarks extended Monday's gain and is trading positive due to global market. Sugar stocks made gains on the back of government's decision to increase import duty in sugar, pointed out market analysts. State Bank of India shares gained more than 1% intraday after the central board of directors approved dilution of bank's stake in its life insurance subsidiary. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The major indices of the Indian stock markets were range-bound on Wednesday and closed with small gains over Tuesday’s close. Expectations of robust quarterly results, along with buying in energy sector stocks pushed the Indian equity markets higher on Wednesday. According to market observers, gains were capped due to investors' reluctance to further invest in expensive market conditions and caution over the upcoming macro-economic inflation and industrial production data points. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The major indices of the Indian stock markets rallied on Thursday and closed with gains over Wednesday’s close. The key domestic equity indices S&P BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty on Thursday scaled record highs on the back of positive global cues and hopes of an easing of the monetary policy. Global equities traded higher after US Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, hinted at more gradual tapering programme at her testimony before the US Congress, pointed out market analysts. India's retail inflation hit a record low of 1.54% in June, lowest since 1999, raising hopes of an interest rate cut by RBI (Reserve Bank of India) ahead of monetary policy next month (in August). The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

After lowering the Immediate Payment Service (IMPS) charges, the State Bank of India (SBI) on Thursday reduced charges for National Electronic Funds Transfer (NEFT) and Real Time Gross Settlement (RTGS) transactions up to 75% effective July 15. The reduced charges will be applicable on the transactions done through internet banking and mobile banking services offered by the bank, the bank said in an official statement here on Thursday.

With the retail inflation easing to a record low of 1.54% in June, the government's Chief Economic Adviser Arvind Subramanian on Wednesday said it reflects a paradigm shift in the process to low levels of inflation, which has been missed in the large systematic inflation forecasts made. As per the Central Statistics Office (CSO) data on Consumer Price Index (CPI), retail inflation was dragged lower to 1.54% in June due to a sharp fall in the prices of food items like pulses, vegetables, and other perishables. The current inflation rate is the lowest since the series began in 2012. With low inflation, interest rates are likely to soften, giving a boost to business and stock markets in India. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Indian shares entered into consolidation mode after a four-day rally that took benchmark indices to record highs. The S&P BSE Sensex index fell almost 90 points from the highest point of the day but managed to hold on to the 32,000 mark, ending at 30,020. The NSE Nifty-50 index recovered nearly 40 points from the lowest point of the day to end at 9,886, a shade lower than the record closing high of 9,891 which it posted on Thursday.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


Interest coverage ratio witnessed recovery in FY2017, says report-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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14 July 2017

Interest Coverage Ratio (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)
Banks are currently dealing with a challenging problem of stressed assets that has adversely impacted their profitability. As a precautionary measure, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) wants banks to be prudent in their assessment of possible future stress in their asset portfolio, for which provisions needs to be made. In this regard, the RBI recently directed the banks to review various financial parameters of borrowers with the objective of framing policy for making provisions for standard assets. One such suggested parameter to be looked at closely is interest coverage ratio (ICR) that help understand and evaluate present and potential risks of borrowers. In general, the ICR witnessed a recovery in FY2017 after a continuous decline in the earlier period, says a research note. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
Interest Coverage Ratio (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

In the report, CARE Ratings Ltd, says, "With regard to classification based on net sales, companies in the lower turnover bracket (net sales < Rs100 crore) had low interest cover and vice-versa. The classification of companies on their debt levels indicated that companies with higher debt (> Rs10,000 crore) were witnessed to have deteriorating debt servicing capabilities, which is a concern. Sectors like FMCG, automobile and ancillaries, pharmaceuticals and drugs, chemicals, consumer durables, construction material are better placed with regard to debt servicing capabilities." The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
Interest Coverage Ratio (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

In its analysis of 2,183 companies across industries excluding banks, oil exploration and refineries, finance and IT firms, the ratings agency found that interest payment capabilities did come down till FY2016, but improved marginally in FY2017. "For all years, the ICR is above 3 indicating comfortable debt servicing capability of the corporates in these years. However the interest coverage ratio declined considerably from 4.47 in FY2013 to 3.68 in FY2016, improved marginally to 3.84 in FY2017," it says. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
Interest Coverage Ratio (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

According to the ratings agency, the recovery may be attributed to a combination factors. It says, "First interest rates have come down in FY17 which has lowered the outflow on this score. Also companies have been substituting cheaper credit points (CPs) with bank credit to take advantage of lower market rates compared with bank MCLRs. Second, overall borrowing by the corporate sector has been subdued due to a drop in investment. Third, as per CARE’s study on corporate results for FY2017, growth in profits also improved for a select set of companies relative to FY2016."The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


Cheaper Gas, Wireless Plans Keep US Inflation In Check-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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14 July 2017
Consumer Prices (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

Lower costs for gas, airline tickets, new and used cars and wireless mobile phone plans kept U.S. consumer prices flat in June, evidence that inflation remains muted.
The unchanged reading followed a drop of 0.1 percent in May, the Labor Department said Friday. Inflation has climbed just 1.6 percent from a year ago. That's down sharply from February, when prices rose 2.7 percent from a year earlier. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
Excluding the volatile food and energy categories, prices rose 0.1 percent in June and 1.7 percent from a year earlier. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
As inflation has slowed, the Federal Reserve's plans to raise interest rates once more this year and three times next year have come under greater scrutiny. The Fed typically hikes rates to ward off rising inflation, yet price gains have declined this year. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
Fed policymakers have lifted their benchmark short-term rate four times in the past 18 months.
Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen hinted on Wednesday that the Fed could slow its rate hike plans if inflation continues to run below the Fed's 2 percent target. That caused a rally in the stock markets as investors celebrated the prospect of lower interest rates for longer.
Yet on Thursday, in a second day of testimony before Congress, Yellen sought to clarify those views and said it would be "premature" to conclude that inflation will remain weak. Fed officials have previously cited big drops in the cost of wireless communications plans as a temporary factor holding down prices.
On Thursday, Yellen said the low unemployment rate would likely force employers to raise pay to attract and keep workers, which in turn should push up prices. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
The measure of wireless phone costs fell 0.8 percent in June and is down 13.2 percent in the past year. That mostly reflects new unlimited data plans. The government records additional goods or services for the same price as the equivalent of a drop in price. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Gas prices fell 2.8 percent in June, after a 6.4 percent fall in May. Electricity costs slid 0.6 percent.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Global Stocks Steady As Earnings And US Data Eyed-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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14 July 2017

South Korea Financial Markets (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)
Global shares traded in fairly narrow ranges Friday as the quarterly U.S. corporate earnings results season began in earnest and as investors awaited some key U.S. economic data.
KEEPING SCORE: In Europe, the FTSE 100 index of leading British shares was down 0.3 percent at 7,394 while Germany's DAX was flat at 12,645. The CAC 40 in France was 0.1 percent higher at 5,240. U.S. stocks were poised for a tepid open with Dow futures and the broader S&P 500 futures down 0.1 percent. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
EARNINGS WATCH: Companies in the U.S. are beginning to report quarterly financial results, with banks taking center stage on Friday. The largest U.S. bank by assets, JPMorgan Chase & Co., reported a second quarter profit of $1.82 per share, above expectations for $1.59 a share.
US DATA: Competing with earnings for investor attention are monthly U.S. inflation and retail sales figures. Both, but particularly the inflation data, could impinge on expectations on how many more interest rate hikes the Federal Reserve will make this year. In a congressional testimony this week, Fed Chair Janet Yellen suggested that interest rates may rise more gradually than previously thought, and that helped stocks while weighing on the dollar. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
ANALYST TAKE: "After Yellen highlighted worries about inflation weakness earlier in the week, today's reading will be key for dollar direction into the rest of the month," said Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG. "Meanwhile, bank earnings will let us see whether trading revenue has suffered from the lack of volatility in recent months." The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
ASIA SCORECARD: Japan's Nikkei 225 added 0.1 percent to 20,118.86 and South Korea's Kospi rose 0.2 percent to 2,414.63. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index inched up 0.2 percent to 26,389.23 and the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.1 percent to 3,222.42. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 gained 0.5 percent to 5,765.10. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
OIL: Benchmark U.S. crude rose 28 cents to $46.37 per barrel in electronic trading on New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude, used to price international oils, was up 29 cents to $48.71 per barrel in London. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

CURRENCIES: The euro was up 0.2 percent at $1.1417 while the dollar fell 0.2 percent to 113.07 yen.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Thursday 13 July 2017

Nifty, Sensex Make a New All-time High – Thursday closing report-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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13 July 2017

I had mentioned in Thursday’s closing report that Nifty, Sensex were in an uptrend again. The major indices of the Indian stock markets rallied on Thursday and closed with gains over Wednesday’s close. The trends of the major indices are given in the table below: The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
 
Major Indices (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)
The key domestic equity indices -- S&P BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty -- on Thursday scaled record highs on the back of positive global cues and hopes of an easing of the monetary policy. Global equities traded higher after US Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, hinted at more gradual tapering programme at her testimony before the US Congress, pointed out market analysts. India's retail inflation hit a record low of 1.54% in June, lowest since 1999, raising hopes of an interest rate cut by RBI (Reserve Bank of India) ahead of monetary policy next month (in August). The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Global IT spending is projected to reach $3.5 trillion in 2017 -- a 2.4 per cent increase from 2016, market research firm Gartner said on Thursday. Global spending on devices which include PCs, tablets and mobile phones is projected to grow 3.8% in 2017 to reach $654 billion -- an increase of 1.7% from previous quarter's forecast. The mobile phone growth will be driven by increased average selling prices (ASPs) for premium phones in mature markets due to the 10th anniversary of the iPhone while the tablet market may continue to decline. "Digital business is having a profound effect on the way business is done and how it is supported," said John-David Lovelock, Vice President, Gartner, in a statement. The growth rate is up from the previous quarter's forecast of 1.4 per cent owing to decline of the US dollar against many foreign currencies. According to Gartner, the worldwide enterprise software market is forecast to grow 7.6% in 2017. The S & P BSE Information Technology Index closed at 10,148.28, up 0.23% on the BSE. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Reliance Capital Ltd on Thursday said it has received Rs378 crore from Nippon Life Insurance on the completion of increasing its stake to 49% in Reliance Nippon Life Asset Management Ltd (RNAM). In a statement here, Reliance Capital said it will book capital gains on this final transaction during the third quarter ending September 30, 2017. RNAM is the largest asset manager in India in terms of assets under management (AUM), managing Rs3,58,059 crore as of March 31, across mutual funds, pension funds, managed accounts and offshore funds. Nippon Life Insurance is already a strategic partner in RNAM. Nippon Life Insurance acquired 26% stake in RNAM (formerly known as Reliance Capital Asset Management) in 2012. Thereafter, Nippon Life has increased its stake to 49% in various tranches, reflecting the success of the partnership. Nippon Life Insurance is an over 125 years old insurer and a Global Fortune 500 company that manages over $530 billion in assets - amongst the largest total assets in the world for any life insurer. The company is one of the largest life insurers in the world. Reliance Capital shares closed at Rs663.30, up 0.74% on the BSE. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

After lowering the Immediate Payment Service (IMPS) charges, the State Bank of India (SBI) on Thursday reduced charges for National Electronic Funds Transfer (NEFT) and Real Time Gross Settlement (RTGS) transactions upto 75% effective July 15. The reduced charges will be applicable on the transactions done through internet banking and mobile banking services offered by the bank, the bank said in an official statement here on Thursday. State Bank of India shares closed at Rs288.60, up 0.42% on the BSE. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

With the retail inflation easing to a record low of 1.54 per cent in June, the government's Chief Economic Adviser Arvind Subramanian on Wednesday said it reflects a paradigm shift in the process to low levels of inflation, which has been missed in the large systematic inflation forecasts made. "This low, heartening number is consistent with our analysis for some time now -- and which will be fully elaborated in the forthcoming Economic Survey -- of a paradigm shift in the inflationary process to low levels of inflation, a shift that I think has been missed by all reflected in the large, one-sided, and systematic inflation forecast errors that have been made," Subramanian told reporters here. As per the Central Statistics Office (CSO) data on Consumer Price Index (CPI), retail inflation was dragged lower to 1.54 per cent in June due to a sharp fall in the prices of food items like pulses, vegetables, and other perishables. The current inflation rate is the lowest since the series began in 2012. With low inflation, interest rates are likely to soften, giving a boost to business and stock markets in India.

The top gainers and top losers of the major indices are given in the table below:
 
Top Gainer (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

The closing values of the major Asian indices are given in the table below: The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
Asian Indices (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

Deposited demonetised notes still being counted: RBI Governor -The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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13 July 2017
 
Urjit Patel (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)
Eight months after demonetisation, RBI Governor Urjit Patel still refused to give the amount of junked notes deposited with banks, saying they are still being counted. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

He also parried a question on Wednesday at a meeting of the Parliamentary Standing Committee on Finance on the names of 12 industrialists whose outstanding loans amounted to 25 per cent of the Non-Performing Assets in the banking system. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Patel was deposing before the committee, which is expected give a report on demonetisation during the Monsoon Session of Parliament beginning next week. 

He was specifically asked to give details of the value of the Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes which were allowed to be exchanged till December 30. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

He is learnt to have told the panel that the process of counting the junked notes was still on and the central bank has to verify fake notes for which specialised machines are being procured. While some machines have been procured, tenders have been floated to procure more, Patel was quoted by sources as having told the committee. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Another reason given for the delay was the window given to the central bank to accept the junked notes collected by District Central Cooperative Banks (DCCBs) as well as pending issues with Nepal where Indian currency is used widely, sources said. 

Patel is learnt to have told the panel that the process was being expedited with help of machines and staff putting in extra hours. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Patel said the total money in circulation in the country now was Rs 15.4 lakh crore against Rs 17.7 lakh crore at the time of demonetisation in November last year, according to sources.

The government last month allowed the District Central Cooperative Banks (DCCBs) to deposit the demonetised notes, collected during the five-day period after demonetisation was announced on November 8, 2016, with the Reserve Bank of India in 30 days.

Sources said a member told the RBI Governor that since the junked notes have so far not been been counted, how will the central bank know how much of these were fake or genuine. 

Samajwadi Party member Naresh Agrawal staged a brief walk out from the meeting after not being satisfied with the response to his questions. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

He is understood to have demanded the names of 12 industrialists whose outstanding loans amounted to 25 per cent of the Non-Performing Assets in the banking system. 

The meeting of the panel, chaired by Congress leader M. Veerappa Moily, lasted for about three hours. Former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh was among those present. 

Members also asked questions about the vigil being maintained over the use of bitcoins. 

Issues relating to GDP growth and progress towards digital economy also figured in the meeting. 

Members are learnt to have asked about transaction cost being levied on digital payments and inadequate presence of banks in rural areas. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Paytm acquires majority stake in ticketing platform Insider.in-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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13 July 2017

E-wallet platform Paytm on Thursday announced it has acquired a majority stake in Insider.in, a ticketing platform of events company OML Entertainment, for an undisclosed sum. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Paytm has been expanding into the events ticketing industry that is currently pegged at Rs 4,000 crore, with online ticketing accounting for 10 per cent of the overall volume. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

"Digital discovery and events marketing expertise will increase supply of quality events in India. This is a natural extension for us as we continue to build India's go-to destination for online movies and events," said Madhur Deora, Chief Financial Officer, Paytm, in a statement.

Insider.in provides tools, data and analytics to organisers that enables them to conceptualise, market and execute their events. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

"Our partnership with Paytm will enable us to reach more organisers and event goers, and exponentially grow this ecosystem in India," added Shreyas Srinivasan, CEO Insider.in.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions