Saturday, 9 September 2017

Friday, 8 September 2017

Nifty, Sensex Directionless – Weekly closing report-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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8 September  2017

I had mentioned in last week’s closing report that Nifty, Sensex might continue to rise haltingly. The major indices of the Indian stock markets suffered a correction during the week and closed with small losses on Friday, over last Friday’s close. The trends of the major indices in the course of the week’s trading are given in the table below: The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
 
Weekly Indices (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)
Negative Asian markets on the back of escalating geo-political tensions and heavy selling pressure in banking and auto stocks dragged key Indian equity indices -- the NSE Nifty50 and the BSE Sensex -- lower by almost one per cent each during the mid-afternoon trade session on Monday. On the NSE, there were 445 advances, 925 declines and 41 unchanged.

Indian equity benchmark indices edged lower in opening deals led by losses in pharma heavyweights Lupin, Sun Pharma and Dr Reddy's Labs, observed market analysts. Markets are back in the grip of a bear hug after North Korea's nuclear bomb test on Sunday fanned the flames of geopolitical tensions. Stocks across Asia tumbled as investors rushed to safe haven assets.

Power major NTPC reported a growth of 12.55% in generation for August 2017 over the corresponding period last year. "The total generation for the month was 22.347 billion units as against 19.855 billion units," the company said in a statement. "The PLF (plant load factor) increased by 5.58% over the corresponding period last year. Koldam Hydro Electric Power Project generated electricity at its peak capacity during this period." According to the company, in line with the government's thrust on renewable energy its solar stations generated 455 million units from 870 mw capacity. NTPC shares closed at Rs167.90, down 0.15% on the BSE, on Monday. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

On Tuesday, the benchmark indices closed on a higher note as positive European markets and persistent purchasing by domestic institutional investors (DIIs) buoyed investors' sentiments. US stocks sank on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 stumbling to its biggest single-day loss in about three weeks. Asian stocks also slipped, while the dollar was on the defensive with tensions in the Korean Peninsula showing little signs of abating, pointed out market analysts.

Negative global cues and heavy selling pressure in index heavyweights like ITC, Sun Pharma, Lupin and Axis Bank, among others, pulled the two key Indian equity indices lower during the mid-afternoon trade session on Wednesday. Sectorwise, the healthcare and FMCG (fast moving consumer goods) indices plunged into the negative zone. On the NSE, there were 832 advances, 811 declines and 322 unchanged. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

North Korea on Wednesday insisted that it will maintain its nuclear program even if additional sanctions from the international community are imposed on the regime, media reports said. It also accused the US of being the main culprit for escalating tension and nuclear threat, Efe news reported. "The US is terribly mistaken if it thinks it can frighten or persuade Pyongyang by talking about 'all options' on the table and imposing the toughest sanctions and pressure," the North Korean Foreign Ministry said in a statement released late Tuesday by state news agency KCNA. The statement also referred to the UN Security Council's emergency meeting on Monday and US Ambassador Nikki Haley's request to adopt a new and tougher sanctions resolution against North Korea. International markets can hence continue to be volatile in this context.

“The short-term outlook continues to be challenging as the US generics industry is facing rapidly changing market dynamics. Increased competitive intensity and customer consolidation is leading to pressure on pricing; while continued delay in approvals from the Halol facility is also impacting the company’s working,” Sun Pharmaceutical managing director Dilip Shanghvi said in its annual report. “In the Indian market, there is uncertainty amongst the trade channels due to the GST (goods and services tax) implementation, although it may be temporary. Given these factors, growth could be a challenge in FY18 (2017-18) and we expect a single-digit decline in consolidated revenues for FY18 over FY17 (2016-17),” Shanghvi said. The company’s shares closed at Rs474.10, down 3.61% on the NSE.

HCL Technologies on Wednesday announced the acquisition of automation-driven data management platform Datawave for an undisclosed sum. The shares of the HCL Tech closed at Rs852.00, down 0.92% on the NSE. Mergers can happen between healthy banks and not amongst weak ones and the central government should be careful in this regard, said Reserve Bank of India's former Governor Raghuram G Rajan said. Rajan said one has to be careful while merging public sector banks as mergers take time. "It is better to do mergers when banks are healthy than when they are unhealthy," he added. Rajan said in case of weak banks, more time has to be spent on cleaning up their balance sheets.

Key Indian equity indices -- the NSE Nifty50 and the BSE Sensex -- closed on a flat note on Thursday with buying in automobile, metal and capital goods stocks. On the NSE, there were 825 advances, 658 declines and 46 unchanged. The outlook for Indian markets still remains subdued given continued concerns over the escalating tensions around North Korea’s nuclear test, but analysts said markets were still being supported by domestic retail investments, preventing any steep losses. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The West Bengal government will ratify the entry of IT major Infosys in the state, Information Technology Minister Bratya Basu said on Thursday. "A note in this regard will be prepared and placed before the cabinet for approval," Basu told reporters on the sidelines of an event organised by the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII). He said that Infosys has agreed to the terms laid down by the state government. The company would be given incentives on the basis of whatever has been promised but no additional concessions would be given. Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee had announced that the company would start the Kolkata centre with an investment of Rs100 crore and an employment potential of 1,000. Infosys, which was given 50 acres of land at Rajarhat by the former Left Front government in 2010, was going slow on the project as the new dispensation under the Trinamool-led by Banerjee was reluctant to grant the Special Economic Zone (SEZ) status as promised to them earlier. 

Diversified company ITC has filed a Rs1,000-crore defamation suit against proxy advisory firm IiAS at the Calcutta High Court for allegedly making 'defamatory' statements against the company and its directors. The company’s shares closed at Rs270.35, down 1.89% on the BSE, on Thursday. ICICI Bank said in a notice to BSE that ICICI Bank Lombard General Insurance’s initial public offering got an approval and it will open its IPO from 15 to 19 September. The bank’s shares closed at Rs292.70, down 0.86% on the BSE, on Thursday.

After a volatile day of trade, key Indian equity indices closed on a flat note -- marginally in the green -- on Friday (over Thursday’s close), buoyed by buying activities in capital goods stocks. However, selling pressure in index heavyweights like Dr Reddy's Lab, Mahindra and Mahindra, Bajaj Auto and Sun Pharma, among others, capped gains. On the NSE, there were 572 advances, 896 declines and 44 unchanged. Global cues were not pushing the Indian markets to be bearish and the market trends on Friday were due to domestic factors, after North Korea’s nuclear testing had been negative news in the course of the week. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


Tata Motors said that it will launch two new SUV models in 2019. According to Tata Motors' Managing Director and CEO Guenter Butschek, a five-seater SUV model is expected to be launched by early-2019, followed by a seven-seater SUV.  Speaking on the sidelines of the 57th SIAM Annual Convention 2017, Butschek pointed out that going forward the company plans to use two platforms. The company plans to introduce new vehicles on its AMP platform and the LR (Land Rover) platform which has been "modified indigenously" to suit Indian customers. The shares of the company closed at Rs210.15, down 0.50% on the NSE, on Friday.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

CPI inflation likely to be at 3.2% in August: Morgan Stanley-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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8 September  2017
Inflation (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions) 

Consumer price index-based inflation is likely to record a rise to 3.2 percent in August, driven by increases in food and oil prices, global brokerage Morgan Stanley said in a report. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
CPI inflation stood at 2.4 percent in July.
At the same time, stronger food and oil prices are also expected to accelerate wholesale price index (WPI) index to 2.9 percent in August from 1.9 percent in July, the global brokerage said in the report.
 "As base effects waned, we estimate food inflation of 1.7 percent year-on-year in August as compared to (-) 0.3 percent year-on-year in July, which would mark the first positive year-on-year growth print after 3 months of deflation in food prices," Morgan Stanley said. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
"Inflation excluding food and fuel should likely remained sticky at 4.1 percent year-on-year as the impact of the rent house allowance continued to feed through," it added. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
Further, the report estimates that the country's current account deficit would widen to USD 11.2 billion (1.9 percent of GDP) for April-June quarter 2017 from USD 3.5 billion (0.6 percent of GDP) in the preceding quarter.
However, it noted that CAD would still remain within the central bank's comfort zone. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
Going by Morgan Stanley estimates, the trade deficit is expected to narrow to about USD 10.3 billion in August from USD 11.5 billion in July, driven by seasonal factors. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

"With higher oil prices and unfavourable base effects, we expect a moderation in both export and import growth on year-on-year basis," the report said.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Gold price zooms Rs 990 to hit 10-month high of Rs 31,350 per 10 grams-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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8 September  2017
Gold(The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

Gold prices surged by Rs 990 to Rs 31,350 per ten grams - its highest level in 10 months - at the bullion market on Friday in line with global markets.
Besides, increased buying by local jewellers lifted gold prices to 10-month high. The precious metal had lost Rs 240 in last two days.
At the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold for delivery in October was trading higher by Rs 98 or 0.32 percent at Rs 30,380 per 10 grams.
 Globally, gold hit its highest in over a year today as the dollar sagged after weaker-than-expected US jobs data and as festering tensions over North Korea stoked safe-haven demand. As per experts, sentiment got a boost after gold rallied to one-year high in global market as the dollar fell to its weakest level since 2015 in the backdrop of warnings that Hurricane Irma could have devastating impact on the US amid weaker-than-expected jobs data. Besides, simmering tension between North Korea and the US added to the uptrend.
Spot gold was up 0.4 percent at USD 1,352.91. Earlier in the session, it marked its strongest since August last year. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
It was up over 2 percent for the week, on track for a third weekly gain. US gold futures for December delivery rose 0.7 percent to USD 1,359.50.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


RBI identifies more huge loan defaulters for resolution -The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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8 September  2017
 
RBI (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has identified the second batch of large accounts which have defaulted in repayment of loans and has advised banks to resolve them, a senior official said on Thursday.

The information was revealed by RBI Deputy Governor Viral Acharya, while delivering the 8th R.K. Talwar Memorial Lecture here.

The development assumes significance as the RBI in June had come out with a list of 12 large accounts which totaled to about 25 per cent of the current grossnon-performing assets (NPAs) of the banking system for reference under the IBC (Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code).

"The Reserve Bank has now advised banks to resolve some of the other accounts by December 2017; if banks fail to put in place a viable resolution plan within the timelines, these cases also will be referred for resolution under the IBC," Acharya said. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

"The Reserve Bank has also advised banks to make higher provisions for these accounts to be referred under the IBC. This is intended to improve bank provision coverage ratios and to ensure that banks are fully protected against likely losses in the resolution process." The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Acharya said that going forward, the RBI hopes that banks utilise the IBC extensively and file for insolvency proceedings on "their own without waiting for regulatory directions". The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

"Ideally, in line with international best practice, out-of-court restructuring may be the right medicine at 'pre-default' stage, as soon as the first signs of incipient stress are evident or when covenants in bank loans are tripped by the borrowers," he said. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

On the framework side, once a default happens, the IBC allows for filing for insolvency proceedings, time-bound restructuring, and failing that, liquidation. 


The promulgation of the Banking Regulation (Amendment) Ordinance, 2017, and the subsequent actions taken there under, have made the IBC "a lynchpin" of the new resolution framework.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Market Sentiment Kept In Check By Irma And North Korea-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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8 September  2017
Japan financial markets (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

Global stock markets traded in narrow ranges Friday as sentiment was kept in check by worries over Hurricane Irma and developments surrounding North Korea. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
KEEPING SCORE: In Europe, the FTSE 100 index of leading British shares was down 0.4 percent at 7,364, while Germany's DAX was steady at 12,296. The CAC 40 was 0.3 percent lower at 5,101. U.S. stocks were poised for a lower opening, with Dow futures and the S&P 500 futures both down 0.3 percent.
NORTH KOREA: Worries over North Korea have been elevated over the past few weeks after Pyongyang has launched a series of missile tests. This weekend is a particular source of worry as the country celebrates its founding anniversary. North Korea has previously marked key dates with displays of military power, but now its tests appear to be driven by the need to improve missile capabilities.
ANALYST TAKE: "Risk aversion is creeping back into the markets as traders prepare for what could be another troubling weekend in the ongoing standoff between the U.S. and North Korea," said Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at OANDA. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
HURRICANE DAMAGE: Also weighing on sentiment is the huge damage caused by Hurricane Irma, which has slammed the north Caribbean and is projected to reach Florida. The first hurricane warnings for parts of southern Florida have been issued, as the state braced for what could be a catastrophic hit over the weekend. Following in Irma's wake was Hurricane Jose, with some of the islands hit hardest by Irma in its expected path.
ASIA'S DAY: Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 closed 0.6 percent lower at 19,274.82 after the country's growth rate was revised lower. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.3 percent to 5,672.60. South Korea's Kospi lost 0.1 percent to 2,343.72. Hong Kong's Hang Seng added 0.5 percent to 27,668.47, while the Shanghai Composite was little changed at 3,365.24. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
JAPAN ECONOMY: The Japanese economy grew at a slower pace in the April-June quarter, not the surprisingly strong spurt indicated by an earlier estimate, according to revised government data. The Cabinet Office said the gross domestic product or GDP — the total value of a nation's goods and services — grew at an annualized rate of 2.5 percent. That second preliminary reading is a dramatic adjustment from the first, released last month, of 4 percent growth.
ENERGY: Benchmark U.S. crude shed 18 cents to $48.91 a barrel while Brent crude, used to price international oils, gained 12 cents to $54.61 a barrel in London. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

CURRENCIES: The euro was up 0.3 percent at $1.2064 while the dollar slid 1 percent to 17.39 yen.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Thursday, 7 September 2017

Nifty, Sensex Struggling to Rally – Thursday closing report-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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7 September  2017

I had mentioned in Wednesday’s closing report that Nifty, Sensex were likely to remain under pressure. The major indices of the Indian stock markets were range-bound on Thursday and ended flat over Wednesday’s close. The trends of the major indices in the course of Thursday’s trading are given in the table below: The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
 
Major Indices (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)
Key Indian equity indices -- the NSE Nifty50 and the BSE Sensex -- closed on a flat note on Thursday with buying in automobile, metal and capital goods stocks. On the NSE, there were 825 advances, 658 declines and 46 unchanged.

The outlook for Indian markets still remains subdued given continued concerns over the escalating tensions around North Korea’s nuclear test, but analysts said markets were still being supported by domestic retail investments, preventing any steep losses. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


The West Bengal government will ratify the entry of IT major Infosys in the state, Information Technology Minister Bratya Basu said on Thursday. "A note in this regard will be prepared and placed before the cabinet for approval," Basu told reporters on the sidelines of an event organised by the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII). He said that Infosys has agreed to the terms laid down by the state government. The company would be given incentives on the basis of whatever has been promised but no additional concessions would be given. Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee had announced that the company would start the Kolkata centre with an investment of Rs100 crore and an employment potential of 1,000. Infosys, which was given 50 acres of land at Rajarhat by the former Left Front government in 2010, was going slow on the project as the new dispensation under the Trinamool-led by Banerjee was reluctant to grant the Special Economic Zone (SEZ) status as promised to them earlier. 

Diversified firm ITC has filed a Rs1,000-crore defamation suit against proxy advisory firm IiAS at the Calcutta High Court for allegedly making 'defamatory' statements against the company and its directors. The company’s shares closed at Rs270.35, down 1.89% on the BSE. ICICI Bank said in a notice to BSE that ICICI Bank Lombard General Insurance’s initial public offering got an approval and it will open its IPO from 15 to 19 September. The bank’s shares closed at Rs292.70, down 0.86% on the BSE. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


To enable small businesses and start-ups to file their Goods and Services Tax (GST) returns smoothly, Airtel Business on Thursday launched Airtel GST Advantage, a company statement said here. Airtel Business is the B2B arm of telecommunications service provider Bharti Airtel. Launched in partnership with ClearTax, Airtel GST Advantage is being offered free to all existing Airtel Business customers. "The new GST regime is a landmark reform for the Indian economy and with Airtel GST Advantage, we would like to enable small businesses with free filing of returns, and free and secure data access. Airtel is also the data hosting and connectivity partner for the Goods and Services Network (GSTN)," said Ashok Ganapathy, Director & CEO - Airtel Business. Bharti Airtel shares closed at Rs397.45, down 1.36% on the BSE.

E-governance service provider NSDL on Monday said that it has commenced operations of its GST platform -- NSDLgst -- for providing ASP (Application Service Provider) and GSP (GST Suvidha Provider) services. "This is a comprehensive and secure platform, which enables traders, dealers, businesses, chartered accountants (CAs) and tax consultants to upload invoices, file returns and upload information in the prescribed format," the company said in a statement.  "The platform is built using latest technology, combined with simplicity and innovation." The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


The top gainers and top losers of the major indices are given in the table below:
Top Gainer (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)



The closing values of the major Asian indices are given in the table below: The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


Asian Indices (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

Automation to cost 7 lakh low skilled IT jobs by 2022: Report-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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7 September  2017

IT Jobs (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)
About 7 lakh low skilled workers in IT and BPO industry in India are likely to lose their jobs to automation and artificial intelligence by 2022, says a report by US-based research firm HfS Research. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
However, it is not a bad news for everyone, as the report predicts that medium and high skilled jobs will see a rise during the said period.
Due to a rise in adoption of automation and artificial intelligence, the number of low skilled workers in India's IT and BPO service sectors could fall from 2.4 million in 2016 to 1.7 million in 2022, it said. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

However, the number of medium skilled jobs in IT/BPO industry in India could rise from 900,000 to 1 million by 2022, while the number of high skilled jobs could rise to 510,000 in 2022 from 320,000 in 2016.
The trend in India reflects the global scenario, as globally low skilled IT/BPO jobs are expected to fall by 31 per cent, while medium skilled jobs may increase by 13 per cent and high skilled jobs may rise by 57 per cent.
Following the adoption of automation, the net job loss in Indian IT/BPO sector across skill levels is expected to be around 450,000, from 3.65 million in 2016 to 3.2 million in 2022. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
The report noted that following the adoption of automation, globally total jobs in the IT/BPO space are expected to fall by 7.5 per cent with major countries like India, the US and the UK being hit. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
According to the report, Robotic Process Automation (RPA) is merely accelerating the elimination of rote jobs (routine jobs).
"The emergence of RPA is eventually going to sound the death knell for most high-throughput, high-intensity jobs, as both service providers and enterprises master the ability to apply these technologies effectively," it said.

It further said, "the next five years we can manage, it's the five after that when the impact on labour becomes much more challenging."The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

'RBI to recoup forex reserves to combat global contagion'-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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7 September  2017

 






















RBI(The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)
The Reserve Bank is expected to buy forex reserves at every opportunity to combat global contagion, a Bank of America Merrill Lynch report said.

The report said the rupee is expected to reach Rs 66.75/USD level by December.
According to BofAML, the RBI has bought about USD 16 billion in the spot market since April. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
"We continue to expect the RBI to recoup forex reserves to combat global contagion. The import cover looks comfortable at about 11 months on 1-year forward basis, well above the 8 months we deem required for INR stability," Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BofAML) said in a research note.
One of the key factors that require the RBI to recoup forex include moderation in capital flows on account of rich equity valuations.
Moreover, FPI G-sec limits are almost exhausted.
"The BSE Sensex is trading at 1-year forward P/E of 20x far higher than the average of 16x," BofAML said adding that its equity strategists see BSE Sensex at 30000 by December. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
Other reasons cited by the report include, moderation in global liquidity with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) likely to cut down quantitative easing (QE) and foreign investors may favour China over India in bear markets, especially given rising index weights. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
BofAML further said that 'imported' inflation risks are coming off on a weaker US Dollar and low oil prices and "BJP will likely continue to be INR conservative in the run up to the 2019 polls". The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
The Asia forex strategists at the global financial services major expect Rs 66.75/USD by December. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The rupee is currently hovering around Rs 64 against the US dollar.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions