Thursday, 20 December 2018

Nifty, Sensex Still on an Uptrend – Thursday closing report-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


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20 December 2018

I had mentioned in Wednesday’s closing report that Nifty, Sensex were continuing to head higher. The major indices of the Indian stock markets were range-bound on Thursday and closed with minor losses over Wednesday’s close. On the NSE, there were 829 advances, 883 declines and 350 unchanged. The trends of the major indices in the course of Thursday’s trading are given in the table below: The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


In line with global markets, BSE Sensex and Nifty50 traded lower on Thursday after the US Federal Reserve raised its short-term interest rate. Metal and telecom stocks witnessed selling pressure along with index pivotals finance and banking stocks. Fed's decision to increase the short-term interest rate and its indication for a milder path of future increase weakened the dollar which supported the domestic currency, observed market analysts. 

The Indian rupee gained close to 40 paise after the Fed decision. It traded at Rs70.09 against the US dollar after closing at 70.40 on Wednesday. Analysts said the rupee may soon breach the 70 a dollar mark.

With the failure of conciliation talks, about 10 lakh bankers in private and government banks will go on strike on December 26 protesting against the merger of Bank of Baroda, Dena Bank and Vijaya Bank, the All India Bank Employees Association (AIBEA) said on Thursday. 

India's civil aviation regulator said that it has not found any safety concern with Jet Airways due to the financial strain being faced by the airline. According to the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) chief B.S. Bhullar, the regulator has been monitoring the airline for the past 4-5 months. The DGCA sought the information under its CAR (Civil Aviation Requirement) which relates to financial surveillance from safety perspective. Bhullar during a press interaction here said the regulator sought broad-based information from Jet Airways on its ability to maintain aircraft and schedule. The senior DGCA official said the information was sought every 15 days. Jet Airways shares closed at Rs252.35, up 2.66% on the BSE. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Automobile major Maruti Suzuki is likely to log a 5% growth in wholesale sales during the upcoming January-March quarter, said the company's Chairman R.C. Bhargava. Bhargava, in a media interaction here said that the first quarter of the calendar year 2019 would reverse the recent subdued trend. 
"The wholesale figures in the first quarter next year will rise again, not to double digits, but to around 5%. It will reverse the trend which you had in the last five-six months of low growth," he said. He noted that likely offloading of stocks in December due to offers and incentives, would result in firm wholesale demand in the March ending quarter. "Good response" for the Ertiga also would pump sales, Bhargava told reporters. The Maruti head further said that the company would launch a new car during the first quarter of 2019, although he did not reveal any further details on it. The company’s shares closed at Rs7,808.95, down 1.35% on the BSE. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Indian IT (information technology) bellwether Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) unveiled a new private cloud in Canada to help enterprises move into the digital space. "We are extending our cloud offerings to customers in Canada and reinforcing the key role we play in their digital transformation," said TCS global head for cloud infrastructure Satish Chandra Doreswamy in the statement. TCS shares closed at Rs1,956.35, down 0.55% on the BSE.

US stocks fell after the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate for the fourth time this year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average on Wednesday plunged 351.98 points, or 1.49%, to 23,323.66. The S&P 500 decreased 39.2 points, or 1.54%, to 2,506.96. The Nasdaq Composite Index was down 147.08 points, or 2.17%, to 6,636.83. All but one of the 30 components of the Dow closed lower. 

All the 11 primary S&P 500 sectors closed lower, with consumer discretionary and technology down 2.23% and 1.94%, respectively, leading the laggards. Of the S&P 500 member stocks, 60% ended up in bear market territory on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve announced its decision to raise short-term interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point. "In view of realised and expected labour market conditions and inflation, the (Federal Open Market) Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 2-1/4 to 2-1/2 per cent," the Fed said in a statement after concluding a two-day policy meeting. It marked the Fed's fourth rate hike this year and the ninth such move since late 2015, as the central bank moves forward on the path of monetary policy normalization.

The top gainers and top losers of the major indices are given in the table below:


The closing values of the major Asian indices are given in the table below: The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
 
Major Indices (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)


Government to put draft e-commerce policy up for wide ranging consultation -The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


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20 December 2018
 
Ecommerce (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)


The Department Of Industrial Policy and Promotion (DIPP) will put the draft e-commerce policy up for broad based consultation and seek comments for a period of ten days, once it is finalised. The department is in the process of finalising the policy and has already discussed issues related to logistics and exports with stakeholders. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


“The draft e-commerce policy will be put up for comments for ten days once it is final. The government will ask for online comments for the draft,” said an official in the know of the details. DIPP is now the nodal agency for all matters related to e-commerce and has begun fresh discussions for a policy to regulate the e-commerce sector, after the Department of Commerce floated a draft policy in July. “We are in the process of drafting the new e-commerce policy,” said DIPP secretary Ramesh Abhishek at the sidelines of an event, on Thursday. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The government has also set up a group of secretaries to look into the issues of the sector after concerns were raised on some proposals of the commerce department’s draft e-commerce policy. Deep discounts and the predatory pricing by e-commerce players has been a key area of concern. Domestic retailers, led by the Confederation of All India Traders and All India Online Vendors Association (AIOVA) have red flagged deep discounting and loss funding by online companies, saying it is against the extant foreign direct investment norms. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

“Till now, none of our consultations have been sought or included despite multiple requests. Now that it will be open to public, we will ask all sellers to write directly to the department. We hope sellers’ issues are given weightage,” said an AIOVA member.
The issue also came up at a recent meeting to improve India’s ease of doing business ranking and industry representations made to commerce and industry minister Suresh Prabhu. The initial draft fell through as stakeholders questioned the role of the commerce department and opposed key suggestions on data localisation, setting up of an e-commerce regulator, move to allow 49% foreign investment in inventory-based online retail and preference for RuPay. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

India's November crude imports mark biggest decline in nearly four years-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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20 December 2018
crude (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

India’s monthly crude oil imports in November marked their biggest year-on-year decline in nearly four years, data from the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC) of the oil ministry showed on Thursday.

The country’s November crude imports slid 11.4 percent to 17.01 million tonnes, registering their largest year-on-year percentage fall since Feb. 2015, when it tumbled 21.3 percent, the government data showed.

The fall was largely attributed to maintenance shutdowns at some Indian refineries. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

In November, oil imports from Iran also declined to the lowest level in a year as purchases were curbed as a result of the reimposition of U.S. sanctions on Iran.

Meanwhile, imports of oil products declined about 7 percent and exports fell 6.8 percent, the data showed.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

US Rate Jitters Continue To Weigh On Global Stocks-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


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20 December 2018

Global stock prices fell sharply Thursday after Wall Street plunged in the wake of some fairly hawkish commentary from the Federal Reserve about future U.S. interest rate increases. However, many European indexes have come off their lows amid hopes that the U.S. will open slightly firmer later.
KEEPING SCORE: In Europe, France's CAC 40 index was down 1.3 percent to 4,715 while Germany's DAX dropped 0.9 percent to 10,675. London's FTSE 100 was down 0.2 percent at 6,754. All three European indexes were above earlier levels largely because U.S. stocks were poised to recoup some ground at the bell — Dow futures and the broader S&P 500 futures were up 0.3 percent. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
FED WATCH: Investors have had another bout of jitters in what is turning into a disappointing end of year for global stock markets, which has seen many indexes enter bear-market territory. The latest concerns centered on the Fed, which on Wednesday raised its key interest rate for a fourth time this year to reflect U.S. economic strength and said it plans more increases next year. That lifted the Fed's benchmark rate to its highest level since the 2008 global financial crisis. The Fed said it expects two rate increases next year instead of three. Investors were disappointed Chairman Jerome Powell failed to go further in indicating a slowdown in the pace of increases. The Dow and S&P 500 both lost 1.5 percent on Wednesday while the Nasdaq dropped 2.2 percent.
ANALYST TAKE: "European indices played catch-up with yet another bruising session in the U.S.," said Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG. "Since then however there has been a flurry of buying, as might be expected following such a rout." The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
ASIA'S DAY: Tokyo's Nikkei 225 lost 2.8 percent to 20,392.58 after being down 3.2 percent at one point. The Shanghai Composite Index retreated 0.5 percent to 2,536.27 and Hong Kong's Hang Seng gave up 1 percent to 25,615.85. Seoul's Kospi shed 0.9 percent to 2,060.09 and Sydney's S&P-ASX 200 declined 1.3 percent to 5,505.80.
CHINA LENDING: Beijing unexpectedly announced a 100 billion yuan ($15 billion) lending program to support entrepreneurs. Financial analysts said the "targeted easing" appears to be aimed at shoring up economic growth without reigniting a rise in national debt levels.
JAPAN INTEREST RATES: Japan's central bank, as was widely expected, left its short-term policy rate unchanged at a negative 0.1 percent and its 10-year bond yield target at 0 percent. The bank's economic outlook was optimistic but said it would keep rates "extremely low" for an extended period.
ENERGY: Oil prices fell again after a brief respite on Wednesday. Benchmark U.S. crude fell $1.69 to $46.48 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange while Brent crude, used to price international oils, retreated $1.95 to $55.29 per barrel in London.
CURRENCY: The euro was up 0.7 percent at $1.1458 while the dollar declined 0.7 percent to 111.70 yen.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Wednesday, 19 December 2018

Nifty, Sensex Continue to Head HigherMajor Indices (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions) – Wednesday closing report-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


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19 December 2018

I had mentioned in Tuesday’s closing report that Nifty, Sensex were on an uptrend. The major indices of the Indian stock markets were range-bound on Wednesday and closed with gains over Tuesday’s close. On the NSE, there were 1,136 advances, 562 declines and 362 unchanged. The trends of the major indices in the course of Wednesday’s trading are given in the table below:
Amid mixed Asian cues and falling crude oil prices, the benchmark Sensex extended its early gains on Wednesday. Apart from the export-oriented IT (information technology) and pharma stocks all other sectors gained on both NSE and BSE.

The domestic currency continued to gain against the US dollar on Wednesday after registering a Rs1.11 rise -- the strongest single day gain in five years. Rupee was trading at Rs70.16 against the US dollar from its previous close of 70.44 after the benchmark Brent Crude slipped to $56.68 a barrel.

Indian bonds, equity and the currency have outperformed other major markets by a big margin, pointed out market analysts.

Investors are, however, still cautious about the ongoing Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting later in the day. The committee is widely expected to raise interest rates, which has kept the sentiments tepid, analysts said.

Tokyo stocks opened lower on Wednesday, as concerns over a US government shutdown, a slump in oil prices and concerns that the US Federal Reserve may go too far with its rate-hiking policy led to investor consternation.

A skills-based immigration system will be introduced in the UK to "get control over our borders" when free movement from the EU ends, Home Secretary Sajid Javid is set to announce. 

The Life Insurance Corporation (LIC) has made an open offer to acquire 26% stake in the public sector lender IDBI Bank for Rs61.73 a share. Currently, the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) norms mandate an open offer if a company acquires up to 25% stake in a listed entity. IDBI Bank shares closed at Rs62.05, up 0.40% on the NSE.

Private sector IDFC Bank announced that the lender's merging of non-banking finance company (NBFC) Capital First with it has become effective on Tuesday following the lodging of the relevant NCLT (National Company Law Tribunal) order with the Registrar of Companies. An IDFC stock exchange filing also said following the regulator's approval, the bank board has appointed V. Vaidyanathan as the MD and CEO of the bank with effect from December 19, 2018, in place of Rajiv B. Lall. The board also approved the appointment of Rajiv B. Lall as the part-time non-executive Chairman of IDFC Bank with effect from December 19, 2018, subject to Reserve Bank of India (RBI) approval.  The National Company Law Tribunal has already approved the amalgamation of Capital First, Capital First Home Finance and Capital First Securities with IDFC Bank. "The approval of the RBI has been received for change of name of the Bank from IDFC Bank Ltd to IDFC First Bank Ltd," the filing said.  "However, the new name will be effective after receipt of approvals from the shareholders of IDFC Bank and the Central government."  The merged entity will have an authorised share capital of Rs5,363 crore, the filing added. IDFC Bank shares closed at Rs42.80, up 3.88% on the NSE.

Private lender Yes Bank said it has sold 2.13% share stake of Fortis Healthcare. According to a BSE filing, the bank said it sold the stake in various tranches. Fortis Healthcare shares closed at Rs137.10, up 0.55% on the BSE.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said on review of the evolving liquidity conditions, it has decided to scale up the amounts to be purchased in the remaining two OMO (Open Market Operation) auctions scheduled in December 2018 to Rs15,000 crore each. "Consequently, the total injection of durable liquidity for the month of December 2018 would amount to Rs500 billion (Rs50,000 crore)," the Central bank said in a statement. 

The decision comes amid concerns of a liquidity crisis in the economy after the default by IL&FS Group companies and government's calls for more liquidity infusion.  Additionally, the RBI said it will inject Rs50,000 crore into the market by purchasing government securities in January 2019. "Further, based on an assessment of the durable liquidity needs going forward, the RBI has decided to conduct purchase of government securities under OMOs for an aggregate amount of Rs500 billion in the month of January 2019," the statement said.  "The operations will be conducted through five auctions of Rs100 billion each."

US stocks closed higher as investors awaited the central bank's latest decision on interest rate hikes. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 82.66 points, or 0.35%, to 23,675.64 on Tuesday. The S&P 500 rose 0.22 point, or 0.01%, to 2,546.16. The Nasdaq Composite Index was up 30.18 points, or 0.45%, to 6,783.91. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hike its benchmark overnight lending rate for the fourth time this year when it concludes a two-day policy meeting on Wednesday. Rising interest rates can be a hurdle to smaller companies that carry a high proportion of debt, so any sign that the Fed plans to continue to raise rates each quarter could weigh on corporate sentiment. In the meantime, investors continue to digest soft economic data. Construction of single-family homes fell to a one and a half year low, pointing to deepening housing market weakness that could spill over to the broader economy. New York manufacturers reported on Monday that business activity is growing at a slower pace in recent months. The Empire State Manufacturing Survey's headline general business conditions index, aggregated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, fell 12.4 points to 10.9 in December, weaker than analysts' expectations of around 20.6.

The National Stock Exchange (NSE) said it has received security market regulator SEBI's approval to start weekly options contracts on the Nifty50 index. The weekly options will have seven consecutive weekly expiry contracts, excluding the week where monthly contracts expire, the NSE said in a statement. "All contracts shall expire at the normal market closing time on the expiry day or such other time as decided by the exchange," it said. The new serial weekly options contract shall be introduced after the expiry of the respective week's contract, it added.

The top gainers and top losers of the major indices are given in the table below:


The closing values of the major Asian indices are given in the table below:

Major Indices (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)



Niti Aayog strategy document estimates 8% average GDP growth during 2018-23 -The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


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19 December 2018
 
Growth (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)


Niti Aayog on Wednesday estimated economic growth rate of about 8% on average during 2018-23 in its much awaited strategy document for a new India by 2022. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

This will raise the economy’s size in real terms from $2.7 trillion in 2017-18 to nearly $4 trillion by 2022-23 and Increase the investment rate as measured by gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) from the present 29% to 36% of GDP by 2022, the Aayog said. 

Teh document has called for shift in agriculture with emphasis to converting farmers to ‘agripreneurs’ by further expanding e-National Agriculture Markets and replacing the Agricultural Produce Marketing Committee Act with the Agricultural Produce and Livestock Marketing Act.

 The document is likely to be a guiding document for policy makers going forward as it sets targets for all ministries. The overarching focus of the strategy document is to further improve the policy environment in which private investors and other stakeholders can contribute their fullest towards achieving the goals set out for New India 2022 and propel India towards a $5 trillion economy by 2030.

The forty-one chapters in the document have been disaggregated under four sections: Drivers, Infrastructure, Inclusion and Governance.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

This is a detailed document that recognizes the progress already made, identifies binding constraints, and suggests the way forward for achieving the clearly stated objectives. It comes several months after the Aayog released it's three-year action plan. This is expected to be followed by 15 year vision document soon. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Government likely to make additional capital infusion in PSU banks: Subhash Chandra Garg -The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


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19 December 2018
 
capital infusion(The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)


The government is likely to make additional capital infusion in the public sector banks, Economic Affairs Secretary Subhash Chandra Garg said Wednesday.

This will be over and above Rs 1.35 lakh crore capital infusion announced by the government for the public sector banks (PSBs) in October last year to meet global capital risk norms called Basel III. Asked whether the government is considering to make additional capital infusion in PSBs, Garg said, "Yes...wait for the supplementary which is coming up tomorrow. Most probably tomorrow". The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Additional capital infusion would be done through recapitalisation bonds as has been the practice since October 2017. This does not have any impact on the fiscal position of the government as recap bonds are part of below the line items. According to sources, the government is considering additional capital infusion of up to Rs 30,000- 40,000 crore in PSBs as they have been unable to raise required funds from the markets.

As part of the capital infusion plan announced by the Finance Ministry in October 2017, the government envisaged that public sector banks (PSBs) would raise Rs 58,000 crore from the stock markets by March 2019 to meet Basel III norms.

However, due to subdued market conditions, banks have been unable to raise enough funds from the markets so far. In addition, nonperforming assets of many banks have seen a spurt in the first two quarters of this fiscal, putting stress on their bottom lines.

However, the banks have got a breather in respect of Capital Conservation Buffer (CCB), a part of Basel III norms. The RBI, at its last board meeting of November 19, deferred the requirement to meet the CCB target by one year, leaving about Rs 37,000 crore in the hands of banks.

 Despite this relaxation, PSBs need more funds to meet global capital norms called Basel III as the RBI has retained the capital to risk weighted assets ratio (CRAR) at 9 per cent, sources said, adding that the shortfall could be around Rs 30,000 crore.

The government had decided to take a massive step to capitalise PSBs to the tune of about Rs 2,11,000 crore over the next two years -- through budgetary provisions of Rs 18,139 crore,
recapitalisation bonds of Rs 1,35,000 crore, and the balance through raising of capital by banks from the market while diluting government equity estimated at Rs 58,000 crore.

 As per this plan, the remaining capital infusion is about Rs 42,000 crore. Earlier this year, the government pumped in Rs 11,336 crore into five PSBs -- PNB, Allahabad Bank NSE 4.31 % , Indian Overseas Bank NSE 1.35 % , Andhra Bank NSE 2.98 % and Corporation Bank NSE 4.66 % -- to improve their financial health. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Germany Tightens Checks On Foreign Investment Plans-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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19 December 2018
German Economy Minister (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

Germany tightened the rules Wednesday on foreign investments in some sectors, including the media, lowering the threshold at which it can consider blocking such plans. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
An order introducing the new rules, which partly reflect increasing concerns about Chinese investors, was approved by the Cabinet. Authorities will now be able to launch an investigation of whether an investor from outside the European Union can go ahead with an investment if the planned stake is 10 percent or higher, rather than 25 percent at present.
The change will apply to companies in areas such as the defense and telecommunications sectors, as well as electricity, gas and water supplies.
Economy Minister Peter Altmaier said such companies "are of paramount importance for our lives. That also goes for the media sector."
"Companies like investing in Germany and it should stay that way," Altmaier said. "But with sensitive infrastructure, we must be able to look closely at who is buying it and what consequences that has."
He said Germany is "strengthening our national security."
Altmaier's ministry said the media were included because of its significance for a functioning democracy. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
The Association of German Chambers of Commerce and Industry said it was "problematic" for Germany, Europe's biggest economy, to lower the threshold for examining foreign investments.
"That is particularly true in view of the negative signal that is being sent to our foreign partners," its foreign trade chief, Volker Treier, said.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions