Friday, 1 June 2018

Nifty, Sensex May Trend Higher – Weekly closing report-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


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1 June 2018

I had mentioned in last week’s closing report that Nifty, Sensex might try to head higher.  The major indices of the Indian stock markets were volatile during the week and closed on Friday with small weekly gains over last Friday’s close. The trends of the major indices in the course of the week’s trading are given in the table below: The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


The major indices of the Indian stock markets rallied on Monday and closed with gains over Friday’s close. On the NSE, there were 1,260 advances, 493 declines and 311 unchanged. Buying was observed in capital goods, banking and oil and gas stocks. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Ratings agency ICRA downgraded the Airline major Jet Airways' credit rankings to junk status on the back of a net loss reported for 2017-18. The airline's long term rating assigned to "Long term Loans" and "Non-Convertible Debentures" was revised to lCRA BB+ (negative outlook) from ICRA BBB- (negative outlook). BB+ Rating is just below the investment grade rating of BBB-. It is considered as highest junk rating. According to a BSE filing made on Monday, the company said that ICRA has revised its short term rating to "ICRA A4+" from "ICRA A3".

Tamil Nadu Deputy Chief Minister O. Panneerselvam on Monday said here that the government will take necessary steps to permanently shut down the copper smelter plant of Vedanta Ltd, popularly known as Sterlite Copper.

National Aluminium Company Ltd (NALCO) on Sunday said it is preparing a game-changing business model that will bring an additional Rs935 crore net profit to the company. The development of Utkal D and Utkal E coal mines at Angul is expected to be completed by 2019-20 and 2022-23 respectively. During the 2017-18 financial year, the company achieved the highest net profit in the last 10 years of Rs1,342 crore against Rs669 crore in the previous year. In the fourth quarter, the company has earned a net profit of Rs257.06 crore.

The major indices of the Indian stock markets were up in the morning but suffered a correction on Tuesday and closed with losses over Monday’s close. On the NSE, there were 783 advances, 953 declines and 315 unchanged.

Weak global cues and profit booking by investors depressed the key equity indices on Tuesday. Selling pressure was witnessed in banking, consumer durables and healthcare stocks. However, buying in the capital goods, auto and oil and gas stocks arrested further decline.

In a second successive blow to Vedanta Ltd, the State Industries Promotion Corporation of Tamil Nadu Ltd (SIPCOT) cancelled in "larger public interest" the land allotted in Thoothukudi for the expansion of Sterlite Copper's smelting plant. In its letter to Vedanta, the SIPCOT cited the public protests against the plant's expansion on grounds of increased pollution and expressed concerns over pollution caused by the first smelter plant. The government agency said the price of 342.22 acres deposited will be refunded as per the norms.

Energy exploration and production major Oil India’s net profit during the quarter under review rose to Rs866.50 crore from Rs19.31 crore reported for the corresponding period of 2016-17. In terms of financial year, Oil India reported a rise of 72.27% in its 2017-18 net profit, which increased to Rs2,667.93 crore from Rs1,548.68 crore earned in the previous fiscal. "Crude Oil price realisation increased by $8.36 per BBL to $55.72 per BBL in FY 2017-18 as compared to $47.36 per BBL during FY 2016-17," Oil India said in a statement. The company proposed a final dividend of Re1 per share for FY 2017-18 on post-bonus equity share capital.  This was in addition to the Interim Dividend of Rs14 per share paid earlier on pre-bonus equity share capital.

The major indices of the Indian stock markets were range-bound on Wednesday and closed with small losses over Tuesday’s close. On the NSE, there were 743 advances, 983 declines and 324 unchanged.

Moody's Investors Service report on Wednesday has cut India's GDP growth forecast to 7.3% in 2018, from previous forecast of 7.5% due to higher oil prices and tighter financial conditions. "The Indian economy is in cyclical recovery led by both investment and consumption. However, higher oil prices and tighter financial conditions will weigh on the pace of acceleration. We expect GDP growth of about 7.3% in 2018, down from our previous forecast of 7.5%," the report said. It, however, kept growth expectation for 2019 unchanged at 7.5%.

Mahindra and Mahindra reported a rise of more than 70% in its standalone net profit for the fourth quarter of 2017-18. According to the company, its standalone net profit during the quarter under review increased to Rs1,059 crore from Rs622 crore reported for the corresponding period of 2016-17. In terms of the financial year, M&M's net profit rose 19.57% in its standalone net profit to Rs4,356 crore from Rs3,643 crore earned during the previous fiscal. The Board of Directors recommended a post bonus dividend of Rs7.50 (150%) per share of face value Rs5. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The major indices of the Indian stock markets rallied on Thursday and closed with gains over Wednesday’s close. On the NSE, there were 639 advances, 1,090 declines and 323 unchanged. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Predictions of normal southwest monsoon rains and expectations of an improved gross domestic product data due later in the day pushed the key Indian equity indices higher on Thursday. According to market analysts, buying was witnessed in the oil and gas and banking stocks.

ICICI Bank's Board of Directors have decided to institute a "comprehensive enquiry" to look into an anonymous whistle blower's complaint alleging that Bank's MD and CEO Chanda Kochhar had not adhered to provisions relating to "code of conduct" of the bank. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The Enforcement Directorate (ED) attached a wind farm in Rajasthan valued Rs58.80 crore in connection with its ongoing probe in the multi-crore Punjab National Bank (PNB) fraud involving diamantaire Nirav Modi.

Tech giant IBM announced that its Artificial Intelligence (AI)-powered Enterprise Marketing Cloud services will now be available from its local Cloud Data Centre in India, thus allowing its customers in the country host their data locally.

On Friday, the major indices of the Indian stock markets were range-bound and closed with small losses over Thursday’s close. On the NSE, there were 431 advances, 1,309 declines and 312 unchanged.

Two and three wheeler maker TVS Motor Company Ltd on Friday said it closed last month with 10% sales growth. In a statement the company said it sold 309,865 units last month, up from 282,007 units sold in May 2017. According to the company, two-wheelers registered a growth of 8.2% with sales increasing from 275,426 units in May 2017 to 298,135 units in May 2018. The three-wheelers of the company grew by 78.2%, an increase from 6,581 units in May 2017 to 11,730 units registered in May 2018. The company’s shares closed at Rs597.45, up 1.72% on the NSE. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The Enforcement Directorate on Friday said it has attached properties worth Rs4,700 crore in a Rs5,000-crore bank fraud case involving Gujarat-based pharmaceutical company Sterling Biotech. An ED official told IANS, the agency has attached properties of the Sterling Biotech in Mumbai and Ahmedabad under the sections of Prevention of Money laundering Act, (PMLA), 2002. The ED action comes after the Central Bureau of Investigation's (CBI) FIR. The CBI has booked Sterling Biotech, its directors Chetan Jayantilal Sandesara, Dipti Chetan Sandesara, Rajbhushan Omprakash Dixit, Nitin Jayantilal Sandesara and Vilas Joshi, Chartered Accountant Hemant Hathi, Anup Prakash Garg and some unidentified persons in connection with the alleged bank fraud. Sterling Biotech had taken loans of over Rs5,000 crore from a consortium of banks led by Andhra Bank which had turned into non-performing assets. Total pending dues of the group companies were Rs5,383 crore as on December 31, 2016, said the CBI FIR. The ED said that during the probe, it found that "certain entries" in a diary seized by the Income Tax Department in 2011 showed cash payments amounting to Rs 1.52 crore made to one "Garg, Director, Andhra Bank" between 2008 and 2009 by the Sandesara brothers. The company’s shares last traded at Rs1.45 and trading has been suspended by the BSE for penal reasons.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Weekly Indices (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)



Retail inflation for industrial workers softens to 3.97% in April-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


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1 June 2018
 
Retail inflation (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)


Retail inflation for industrial workers eased to 3.97 per cent in April mainly due lower prices of food items. “The year-on-year inflation based on CPI-IW (Consumer Price Index-Industrial Workers) stood at 3.97 per cent for April, 2018 as compared to 4.36 per cent for the previous month (March 2018) and 2.21 per cent during the corresponding month (April 2017) of the previous year,” the labour ministry said in a statement. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
The CPI-IW is used for working out dearness allowance and dearness relief for central government employees and pensioners respectively.
The food inflation stood at 1.33 per cent against 1.68 per cent of the previous month, and 0.67 per cent in April last year.
The All-India CPI-IW for April, 2018 increased by 1 point to 288.
On 1-month percentage change, it increased by 0.35 per cent between March and April this year, when compared with the increase of 0.73 per cent between the corresponding months of last year. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
The maximum upward pressure to the change in current index came from Food group contributing (+) 1.01 percentage points to the total change.
At item level, rice, groundnut oil, potato, tomato, fish fresh, milk, some vegetables and fruits like apple, and Mango (Ripe) -- in addition to electricity charges, and petrol — are responsible for the increase in index.
However, the increase was checked by wheat, gram dal, eggs, pure ghee, onion and sugar, among others, putting downward pressure on the index.
The indices of 39 centres were above the All-India Index, while for 38 centres they were below national average. The index of Bengaluru centre remained at par with All-India Index.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

RBI likely to leave repo rate unchanged at 6%: ICRA-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


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1 June 2018
RBI (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)
The six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is likely to leave the repo rate unchanged at 6 per cent in a close decision in the June 2018 policy review, amid uncertainty on the impact of some key inflationary risks, according to credit rating agency ICRA. Nevertheless, the tone of the policy document is likely to signal a withdrawal of accommodation and a rate hike could be imminent, it added. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Naresh Takkar, Managing Director and Group CEO, ICRA, said: “Although the headline and the core CPI (consumer price index) inflation for April 2018 revealed negative surprises, an immediate rate hike may be premature, given the lack of clarity on factors such as the 2018 monsoons, the minimum support price (MSPs) and fiscal risks. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
“However, the expected rebound in the average CPI inflation for FY2019, in conjunction with the higher-than-anticipated GDP expansion in Q4 (January-March) FY2018, suggests that a back-ended rate hike cannot be ruled out, which is likely to be reflected in the tone of the policy document.”
Takkar observed that if the availability of capital constrains credit growth of the public sector banks, particularly those under the prompt corrective action (PCA) framework, it may hamper the ability of lower rated firms as well as SMEs to access adequate financing. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
Higher rated corporates are likely to tap the domestic bond market (despite elevated domestic bond yields) and external commercial borrowings (despite higher global rates) for their financing needs, he said.
Lending rates to go up
ICRA, in a statement said, while bond yields have already hardened, the back-ended monetary tightening in 2018 may push up bank lending rates. Accordingly, interest costs are likely to rise in the current fiscal, which would weigh upon margins as well as the strength of the investment recovery in FY2019.
The year-on-year (YoY) CPI inflation prints, released since the last policy review, have provided a mixed trend, with a dip from 4.4 per cent in February 2018 to 4.3 per cent in March 2018, followed by a sharper-than-expected rise to 4.6 per cent in April 2018. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
ICRA underscored that some of the risks highlighted by the MPC in their April 2018 policy review, have come to the fore, such as the substantial rise in global crude oil prices, accompanied by a depreciation of the Indian rupee. Moreover, the core CPI inflation has recorded a sharp uptick to a 44-month high of 5.9 per cent in April 2018, it added. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
“Greater clarity is awaited on the level at which MSPs (minimum support price) are fixed for the upcoming kharif season, as well as the eventual volume and dispersion of the monsoons in 2018.
However, the momentum of the seasonal uptick in food prices continues to be dampened by the weakness in items such as sugar, pulses and onions,” said the agency’s statement. The decline in the CPI inflation from 4.5 per cent in FY2017 to 3.6 per cent in FY2018, was accompanied by one rate cut in 2017.
While the monthly CPI inflation prints are likely to remain volatile going forward, ICRA expects the average CPI inflation to rebound to 4.6 per cent in FY2019, which suggests an imminent rate hike in H2 (July-December) CY2018.
However, there is a low likelihood of immediate monetary tightening in the June 2018 policy review, as the prevailing lack of clarity on factors such as the 2018 monsoons, the MSPs and fiscal risks, are likely to evince varied responses from the MPC members. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
“While the decision to leave the repo rate unchanged at 6 per cent in June 2018 is likely to be non-unanimous, the tone of the policy document is likely to signal that a withdrawal of accommodation and a rate hike could be imminent,” said ICRA.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

India, Singapore to upgrade Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


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1 June 2018
 
India Singapore(The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)


Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Singaporean counterpart Lee Hsien Loong today agreed to deepen the bilateral economic ties and build on defence cooperation as the two sides signed eight agreements including one on logistics cooperation between their navies. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The two leaders, who held wide-ranging discussions on regional and global issues of mutual interests, also called for a peaceful, open, and friendly maritime environment in the Indo-Pacific region.

Prime Minister Modi said that the strategic partnership between India and Singapore has stood the test of time in the real sense.

"We have been able to conclude successfully the second review of Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement (CECA) but we agreed this is not just our target and goal but this only means to an end," Modi said in a joint press statement after the meeting.

"Our officials will soon begin discussions on upgrading and reforming this agreement," he added. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Since CECA was signed in 2004, India-Singapore bilateral trade more than doubled from SGD12 billion (USD 8.97 billions) to SGD 25 billion (USD 18.69 billion). Singapore was the second largest investor in India in FY-2016.

Modi hailed the close defence cooperation between the two countries and welcomed the completion of the logistics agreement between the two navies.

"In the coming times, dealing with cyber security and extremism and terrorism will be important areas of our cooperation," the prime minister said.

Modi and Lee also exchanged views on the regional and global challenges and reiterated their principled position on maritime security and expressed commitment to 'Rules Based' Order. The two leaders also agreed on the need to maintain an open, stable and fair international trade regime.

"We both have reaffirmed our views on maritime security and have shown our commitment to a 'Rules Based' order...We also agreed for a peaceful, open, and friendly maritime environment in the Indo-Pacific region," Modi said.

China is engaged in hotly contested territorial disputes in the South and East China Seas. Beijing has also made substantial progress in militarising its manmade islands in the past few years, which it says it has the right to defend.

China claims sovereignty over all of the South China Sea. But Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines, Brunei and Taiwan have counter claims. In the East China Sea, Beijing has territorial disputes with Japan.

The South China Sea and the East China Sea are stated to be rich in minerals, oil and other natural resources. They are also vital to global trade.

On his part, Lee said the bilateral defence ties have grown stronger.

"Our defence ties have strengthened, our navies have signed an agreement today on logistics cooperation and will also celebrate 25th anniversary of annual Singapore-India Maritime Bilateral Exercise (SIMBEX) this year," Lee said.

He said India and Singapore are collaborating on technology, smart cities and skills development, both at the national and the state level.

Lee pointed out that two projects, that arose from Prime Minister Modi's 2015 visit to the city-state, have been completed.

"Andhra Pradesh Amaravati city project is progressing well with Singapore Consortium. We also recently launched Maharashtra-Singapore joint committee, to explore economic cooperation including planning and development of airport in Pune," he said. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Lee said India is a significant market for Singapore FinTech companies, while Singapore - as a global FinTech Hub - can be a gateway for India to enter the Southeast Asian market. The two countries have agreed to establish a Joint Working Group on FinTech to support this new effort, he added.

He said Singapore, as the current ASEAN chair, will work with India to continue strengthening the regional architecture, and in particular to conclude the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership.

Modi said Singapore has always been a source of foreign direct investment for India and also investments in foreign countries. It has also been a favourite destination for Indian investments abroad, he added.

"I am happy to note that Indian companies use Singapore as a spring board for not only this country but for the entire ASEAN region. For Singaporean companies, as India develops, opportunities are coming up," he said.

Recalling his meeting with CEOs yesterday, Modi said he was happy to see that top executives of many important companies looking at India with confidence.

Modi said the air traffic between India and Singapore is growing rapidly and both countries will enter into a new 'Air Service Agreement' soon.

He said the international launch of RuPay, BHIM and UPI based remittance app in Singapore yesterday represented Digital India initiative and the renewed partnership between the two sides. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Lee said Indian tourists will be able to use their RuPay cards for electronic payments at Changi airport and selected operators across Singapore.

He said he looked forward to welcoming Modi back to Singapore in November for the East Asia Summit, and "to continue working with him to further deepen our cooperation bilaterally and regionally".

Modi, who arrived here yesterday on the last leg of his three-nation visit, earlier made a courtesy call on President Halimah Yacob after a welcome ceremony at the Istana where he was given a guard of honour.

He earlier visited Indonesia and Malaysia.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

European Shares Gain, Asia Falls As Trade Conflicts Deepen-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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1 June 2018


Japan financial markets (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)


Shares prices were higher in Europe on Friday after most major Asian benchmarks fell amid mounting trade tensions.

KEEPING SCORE: Germany's DAX gained 0.8 percent to 12,706.48 and the CAC 40 in France jumped 1.2 percent to 5,461.90. Britain's FTSE 100 climbed 0.7 percent to 7,733.12. Wall Street looked set for gains, with the future for the S&P 500 up 0.4 percent at 2,715.00 and the Dow future contract gaining 0.3 percent to 24,496.00. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

ASIAN SCORECARD: Japan's Nikkei 225 index fell 0.1 percent to 22,171.35 and the Shanghai Composite index tumbled 0.7 percent to 3,075.14. The S&P ASX 200 slipped 0.4 percent to 5,990.40. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index clawed back losses to gain 0.1 percent, ending at 30,492.91. The Kospi in South Korea jumped 0.7 percent to 2,438.96 and shares in Southeast Asia were mixed.

TRADE MOVES: The Trump administration delivered a gut punch to America's closest allies, imposing tariffs on steel and aluminum from Europe, Mexico and Canada in a move that drew immediate vows of retaliation. The parties will likely keep negotiating, and contentious talks between the U.S. and China are due to resume during the weekend. Experts say a trade war remains a remote possibility, but the disputes have been weighing on the markets for months.

ITALIAN POLITICS: Italy's anti-establishment 5-Star Movement and right-wing League succeeded Thursday in forming western Europe's first populist government. It will be headed by a political novice whose first try was rejected four days earlier as too risky for the Italian economy, but the outcome avoids an interim, technical government and a swift return to the polls that investors had feared could end up being a referendum on staying with the euro currency.

THE QUOTE: "The markets are looking much more constructive to end the week than they did to start, and with trade wars still lingering, that is saying a lot," Stephen Innes of Oanda said in a commentary. "And despite all the doom and gloom prophesies, the Italian political mind-bender ended up being little more than a tempest in an espresso cup!" The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

ENERGY: U.S. crude oil gained 12 cents to $67.16 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It lost 1.7 percent to $67.04 a barrel on Thursday. Brent crude, used to price international oils, picked up 5 cents to $77.61 per barrel. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

CURRENCIES: The dollar rose to 109.13 yen from 108.83 yen. The euro fell to $1.1686 from $1.1695. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions