Friday, 7 December 2018

Nifty, Sensex May Try to Rally – Weekly closing report-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


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07 December 2018

I had mentioned in last week’s closing report that Nifty, Sensex were going strong on positive news all round. The major indices of the Indian stock markets suffered a correction during the week and closed on Friday with losses over last Friday’s close. The trends of the major indices in the course of the week’s trading are given in the table below:


The major indices of the Indian stock markets were range-bound on Monday and closed with marginal gains over Friday’s close. On the NSE, there were 925 advances, 811 declines and 342 unchanged.

On Monday, the markets opened on a positive note in line with global markets on signs of easing US-China trade tension who agreed to halt additional tariffs in the G20 meeting in Buenos Aires. Reversing early gains, the key equity indices traded in the red during the afternoon trade session on Monday as investors reacted to disappointing macro-economic data and a rise in global crude oil prices. While the financials traded on a flat note, realty, power and utility stocks gained over 2%. In contrast, the healthcare and auto stocks witnessed selling pressure. Besides, ahead of the OPEC meeting this week, the crude oil prices surged on expectations of supply cuts by the oil cartel. The benchmark Brent Crude traded higher at $62.07 a barrel. Even the domestic currency weakened 63 paise against the US dollar, trading at Rs70.22 from its previous close of 69.59. However, the major indices moved up before the end of the trading session on Monday and closed with marginal gains over Friday’s close.

India's factory output in November rose to an 11 month high on the back of improved demand, according to the Nikkei India Manufacturing PMI. The Nikkei India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was recorded at 54 in November, up from 53.1 in October.

Commercial vehicles major Ashok Leyland Ltd on Monday said its sales went down by 9% last month. In a statement issued here, the company said it sold a total of 13,121 units in November 2018, down from 14,457 sold during November 2017. 

Two and three wheeler maker TVS Motor Company Ltd on Monday said it logged 27% sales growth last month. In a statement, the company said it sold 319,965 units in November 2018, up from 251,965 in November 2017. The company sold 307,142 two-wheelers and 12,823 three-wheelers last month as against 243,323 two-wheelers and 8,642 three-wheelers during November 2017. 

The major indices of the Indian stock markets were range-bound on Tuesday and closed with minor losses over Monday’s close. On the NSE, there were 766 advances, 949 declines and 349 unchanged.

Selling pressure in finance and banking sectors and a slight rise in global crude oil prices dragged the key equity indices lower on Tuesday. According to the analysts, investors were cautious due to the ongoing poll processes in Chhattisgarh, Mizoram, Madhya Pradesh, Telangana and Rajasthan. Counting of votes would take place on December 11. Finance and banking stocks traded over 0.60% lower, while selling pressure was witnessed in telecom, auto and FMCG (fast moving consumer goods) sectors. 

In contrast, buying was seen in IT (information technology) and oil and gas stocks. Ahead of the OPEC (Oil and Petroleum Exporting Countries) meeting this week, the crude oil prices surged on Tuesday on expectations of supply cuts by the oil cartel. The benchmark Brent Crude traded higher at $62.32 a barrel. The rupee, after losing 88 paise on Monday, traded flat at Rs70.44 to a US dollar. Domestic markets like stock markets across the world reacted well on Monday to signs of an easing US-China trade tensions as the two countries agreed to halt additional tariffs. But the domestic markets in India had ended on a flat note on Monday due to release of weak macro data.

Shriram EPC has secured two orders worth Rs166.16 crore and Rs59.55 crore from Jharkhand Urban Infrastructure Development Co. Ltd. for augmentation and strengthening of Dhanbad Water Supply Scheme-Phase 1 and Water Supply for Khunti Nagar Panchayat. 

Alembic Pharma's subsidiary company Orit Laboratories LLC has received approval from the US FDA (Food and Drug Administration) for its ANDA for Glycopyrrolate Tablets USP. The drug is indicated for use as adjunctive therapy in the treatment of peptic ulcer. 

The major indices of the Indian stock markets suffered a correction on Wednesday and closed with losses over Tuesday’s close. On the NSE, there were 467 advances, 1,242 declines and 353 unchanged.

In its penultimate monetary policy review of the current fiscal, the RBI (Reserve Bank of India) on Wednesday kept its key lending rate for commercial banks unchanged at 6.5% for the second time in succession. The Reserve Bank of India also made no changes to its stance of "calibrated tightening" adopted in the policy review of October India's central bank keeps key lending rate intact at 6.5%.

Caution on account of the monetary policy and broadly negative global stock markets dragged the key Indian equity indices lower on Wednesday. All sectoral indices on BSE and NSE traded in the red led by metal, auto and healthcare stocks. According to analysts, the markets on Wednesday are affected more from the global factors rather than the RBI monetary policy. 

In addition, crude oil prices remained volatile amid expectations of supply cuts by OPEC (Oil and Petroleum Exporting Countries), the group of 15 of the world's top oil producers which is to meet on December 7. Brent crude traded lower at $61.02 per barrel. The rupee continued to depreciate and traded at Rs70.53 to a US dollar from its close of Rs70.49.

A Delhi court on Wednesday sentenced former Coal Secretary H.C. Gupta and two other former government officials to three years in jail in a coal block allocation case. CBI Special Judge Bharat Parashar also slapped a fine of Rs50,000 on Gupta and former officials K.S. Kropha and K.C. Samria. He also sentenced Vikash Metal and Power Ltd (VMPL) Managing Director Vikash Patni and authorised signatory Anand Mallick to four years in jail. Last week the court convicted all five of conspiring to get the Moira-Madhujore coal block of West Bengal in favour of VMPL. It was the sixth judgment by the Special Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) court that is exclusively dealing with the coal block allocation cases.

TCS has launched its intelligent power plant solution - TCS IP2. The solution combines AI (artificial intelligence), IoT (Internet of Things), and Digital Twin Technologies to support critical power plant assets, enhance reliability, improve flexibility, cut emissions and reduce operating costs by 2%-3%.

Absconding liquor baron Vijay Mallya, wanted in a Rs9,000 crore bank loan default case, on Wednesday offered to pay back "100% of the principal amount" as speculations over his extradition were raised after AgustaWestland middleman Christian Michel was brought to Delhi for interrogation. 

The indices suffered a correction on Thursday and closed with losses over Wednesday’s close.

But on on Friday they rallied thanks to strong global cues and closed with gains over Thursday’s close. On the NSE, there were 732 advances, 969 declines and 363 unchanged.

The market was supported by a decline in crude oil prices and an appreciating rupee. Buying in banking, auto and consumer goods stocks also supported the domestic equity market, analysts said.

Global ratings agency Fitch Ratings lowered India's growth forecasts to 7.2% from an earlier projection of 7.8% rise for fiscal year ending March 2019.

Indian software major HCL Technologies on Friday said it was buying IBM Software Products for $1.8 billion (Rs12,700 crore) in an all-cash deal. "The transaction is expected to close by mid-2019, subject to completion of applicable regulatory reviews," said the Noida-based company in a mandatory filing on the BSE. HCL Technologies shares closed at Rs961.90, down 5.00% on the NSE.

The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) accorded in-principle approval for the strategic sale of the governments existing 52.63 % majority shareholding in the Rural Electrification Corporation (REC) to the state-run Power Finance Corporation (PFC), along with transfer of management control. REC shares closed at Rs104.70, up 0.82% on the NSE and PFC shares closed at Rs89.50, down 0.61% on the NSE.

US trade deficit widened for a fifth consecutive month and reached a 10-year high in October, according to data from the Commerce Department. US stocks closed mixed as fears for economic slowdown continued. The US dollar extended losses in late trading on Thursday, as a batch of negative economic data cast a poll over investors’ sentiment.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
 
Weekly Indices (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)


Current account deficit widens to 2.9% of GDP in Q2 -The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


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07 December 2018
 
India's current account deficit (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)


India's current account deficit (CAD) widened to 2.9 per cent of the GDP in the second quarter of the fiscal compared to 1.1 per cent in the year-ago period, mainly due to a large trade deficit, the RBI said Friday.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


 The CAD, or the difference between outflow and inflow of foreign exchange in the country's current account, was USD 19.1 billion during the quarter ended September 30, 2018.

 It increased from USD 6.9 billion or 1.1 per cent of GDP in the second quarter of 2017-18. The CAD stood at USD 15.9 billion (2.4 per cent of GDP) in the April-June quarter.

"India's current account deficit (CAD) at US$ 19.1 billion (2.9 per cent of GDP) in Q2 of 2018-19 increased from US$ 6.9 billion (1.1 per cent of GDP) in Q2 of 2017-18 and US$ 15.9 billion (2.4 per cent of GDP) in the preceding quarter," the RBI said.

The CAD has increased to 2.7 per cent of GDP in first half of 2018-19 from 1.8 per cent in the corresponding period of 2017-18 on the back of widening of the trade deficit.

 As per the central bank, the widening of the CAD on a year-on-year basis was primarily on account of a higher trade deficit at USD 50 billion as compared to USD 32.5 billion a year ago.

RBI's preliminary data on India's balance of payments (BoP) for July-September 2018-19 further revealed that net services receipts increased by 10.2 per cent on a y-o-y basis, mainly on the back of a rise in net earnings from software and financial services.

Private transfer receipts, mainly representing remittances by Indians employed overseas, amounted to USD 20.9 billion during the quarter, increasing by 19.8 per cent from their level a year ago. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

In the financial account, net foreign direct investment at USD 7.9 billion in the second quarter of 2018- 19 moderated from USD 12.4 billion in the similar period of last fiscal. RBI said portfolio investment recorded net outflow of USD 1.6 billion as compared to an inflow of USD 2.1 billion in the second quarter last year on account of net sales in both the debt and equity markets.

Further, net receipts on account of non-resident deposits increased to USD 3.3 billion in the second 12/7/2018 Current account deficit widens to 2.9% of GDP in Q2  of 2018-19 from USD 0.7 billion a year ago. In July-September this fiscal, there was a depletion of USD 1.9 billion of the foreign exchange reserves (on BoP basis) as against an accretion of USD 9.5 billion in the year ago period. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Centre working towards increasing GDP of each district: Suresh Prabhu-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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07 December 2018




GDP (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)



The Narendra Modi-led government is planning to work at the micro-level in each district, which will help in boosting the country's overall GDP, Union commerce minister Suresh Prabhu said Thursday. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

 Speaking at an Assocham event here, he said the aim is to increase the gross domestic produce (GDP) of each district in the country, which will cumulatively contribute for the GDP growth of the nation. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

 "We are mapping each and every district to increase GDP of that region by 3-4 per cent," the minister said while addressing the conference on 'Strengthening MSME Ecosystem in Food Processing', adding agencies like Nabard are working with the government on this project very closely. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Prabhu said the government has already identified six districts in five different states - Muzaffarpur in Bihar, Varanasi in Uttar Pradesh, Vishakhapatnam in Andhra Pradesh, a district in Himachal Pradesh and two districts of Ratnagiri and Sindhudurg in Maharashtra - to be taken up in the first phase of the project. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

 "The National Council of Applied Economic Research has already done baseline study of both the districts in Maharahstra," he said. The minister said that the government is also working on an initiative to improve the ease of doing business in each district.
"Ease of doing business has improved considerably and we will try to improve it further," he said, adding, "We want to work on ease of doing business in every district of India."
Prabhu said he has written to all the chief ministers on the same, and most of them have responded positively. The minister said that with the initiatives to increase the GDP and promote ease of doing business, the country will witness economic transformation.

New RBI norms capping bank credit to increase top companies' refinancing needs by Rs 4 trillion: India Ratings -The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


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07 December 2018
 
Reserve Bank guidelines (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)


The new Reserve Bank guidelines on capping fund-based bank credit to corporate is expected to increase their refinancing needs to the tune Rs 4 trillion in the medium-term and up to Rs 7.83 trillion next fiscal year, says a report. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

 According to an analysis by India RatingsFriday, the top 500 debt-heavy corporates will need a total refinancing requirement of Rs 7.83 trillion in FY20, of which Rs 4 trillion will be on account of the implementation of these new guidelines alone.

The new RBI guidelines on bank credit to corporates stipulate that the sanctioned fund-based working capital limits of Rs 150 crore and above must comprise at least 40 percent of the loan component while the remaining may be sanctioned as cash credit effective April 1, 2019.

 The corporate borrower will be allowed to draw down on the cash credit portion only after the entire working capital limit component has been used up. According to the new guidelines, the share of working capital limit is required to be increased to 60 percent from July 1, 2019 onwards. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The India Ratings report said the impact can be significant for working capital intensive sectors, especially those into cyclical businesses. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

"The guidelines, however, allow the lending bank to roll over the working capital limit at maturity. While the current practice is of allowing at least one day of cooling period between the date of maturity and re-issuance of the working capital limit, this could change over the medium-term, given that the liquidation of the long-term portion of the working capital may become onerous for the borrower with weak liquidity profile," it said.

However, in extreme cases of material deterioration in the borrower's credit quality or regulatory/financial limitations on the banks' ability to lend, borrowers may face challenges in rolling over their working capital limits, thereby significantly further restricting their financial flexibility, the report said.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The rating agency expects the internal liquidity of corporates could remain modest at best in both FY19 and FY20. "The effect of a rise in commodity prices and interest rates, coupled with a weaker nominal exchange rates, could weigh down on the debt protection metrics of the stressed corporates. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

As a result, total 12/7/2018 New RBI norms capping bank credit to increase top companies' refinancing needs by Rs 4 trillion: India Ratings working capital needs are likely to rise substantially and some part of the overhang is expected to spill over to FY20," it said.

To mitigate liquidity risk and ensure timely payment of commercial papers (CPs), the agency considers 100 percent liquidity back-up for outstanding CPs and other short-term debt obligations as per its short-term ratings criteria for non-financial corporates. "Back up could be in the form of CPs being carved out of an entity's fund-based working capital limits, cash and cash equivalents, expected operational cash flow sources, tangible parental support, or other forms of liquidity support," it said. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The agency also noted that outstanding CPs accounted for 40 percent of the working capital debt in FY18. With lower revolving fund-based working capital limits available, additional liquidity in the form of unutilised bank lines could be stifled, leading to a significant reduction in the available liquidity headroom, especially for corporate with weak internal cash flows or inadequate group/parent support, it cautioned.

 It believes there would be a higher need for efficient working capital management and financial cash flow discipline among corporates. The report further notes that of the total debt, working capital borrowings for NBFCs accounted for around 13 percent as of end March 2018 and it does not anticipate any material impact on the assetliability management of NBFCs purely on account of the new guidelines. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

However, financial flexibility can be marginally constrained for lower rated entities-- commensurate with their rating levels--especially because the share of working capital borrowings is substantially higher. Nonetheless, NBFCs have more certainty on their cash inflows, it said. It believes NBFCs' debt mobilisation needs and repayment schedules can be matched, considering their historic delinquency rates and collection schedules. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Dow's Recovery Helps Shore Up Markets Around The World -The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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07 December 2018


financial markets (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)
Shares rebounded in Europe and Asia on Friday as worries over U.S.-China trade friction were calmed by conciliatory comments from Beijing. Attention was turning toward upcoming U.S. jobs data.
KEEPING SCORE: In Europe, stock markets made up around half of Thursday's losses in morning trading. Germany's DAX climbed 0.5 percent to 10,867 while the CAC 40 in France advanced 1.3 percent to 4,841. Britain's FTSE 100 jumped 1.3 percent to 6,790. U.S. stocks were poised for retreat after recovering from lows on Thursday — Dow futures and the broader S&P 500 futures were both 0.5 percent lower.
THE DAY IN ASIA: Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 added 0.8 percent to 21,678.68, and Australia's S&P/ASX 200 gained 0.4 percent to 5,681.50. South Korea's Kospi rose 0.3 percent to 2,075.76. Hong Kong's Hang Seng gave up 0.3 percent to 26,063.76, while the Shanghai Composite was flat at 2,605.89. Shares rose in India, Taiwan and Southeast Asia.
ANALYST TAKE: "European and Asian markets have taken heart from a robust rebound last night in the U.S. that saw the Dow Jones claw back a whopping 700 points from the lows," said Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG.
TRADE WATCH: Despite skepticism over the trade truce Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping reached last weekend in Buenos Aires, Argentina, Beijing has signaled it intends to go ahead with talks meant to resolve the dispute. The arrest of Meng Wanzhou, chief financial officer of telecoms network supplier Huawei Technologies, has driven home why it will be so hard for the Trump administration to repair its deepening conflict with China. The U.S. Commerce Department reported Thursday that the gap between what the U.S. sells and what it buys from foreign countries hit $55.5 billion in October while the touchy deficit with China rose 7.1 percent from a year earlier to a record $43.1 billion.
PAYROLLS: How markets end the week could hinge on the upcoming U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for November. Economists have forecast that Friday's figures will show that employers added a healthy 195,000 jobs last month and that the unemployment rate stayed at a five-decade low of 3.7 percent. Most economists think growth will remain brisk despite the rampant worries of stock market investors. Still, analysts expect the economy and hiring to likely weaken somewhat in the coming months.
ENERGY: U.S. benchmark crude rose 28 cents to $51.86 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange while Brent crude, used to price international oils, rose 77 cents to $60.83.
CURRENCIES: The euro was down 0.1 percent at $1.1387 while the dollar rose 0.2 percent to 112.84 yen.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Thursday, 6 December 2018

Sensex tanks 572 points over oil output cut fears, weak rupee- Thursday closing report -The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


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06 December 2018
 
financial markets (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)
Fears over possible crude oil production cut by the OPEC group as well as broadly negative Asians stock markets pulled the barometer S&P BSE Sensex index lower by over 570 points on Thursday.
 
In addition, outflows of foreign funds, weak rupee and uncertainty over the outcome of Assembly elections subdued investor sentiments.
All the sectors ended lower, led by energy sector, which shed 2.52 per cent, the most BSE, followed by realty and auto stocks.
The Sensex settled lower 1.59 per cent, or 572.28 points, at 35,312.13, from its previous close of 35,884.41. It touched an intra-day high of 35,707.23 and a low of 35,266.76. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
The Nifty50 lost 181.75 points or 1.69 per cent to close the session at 10,601.15.
The market breadth was negative as a number of declining stocks was thrice the advancing ones. A total of 656 stocks advanced while 1,814 declined.
The crude oil prices remained volatile amid expectations of supply cuts by OPEC, the group of 15 of the world's top oil producers which is to meet on December 7.
However, Brent crude oil price slipped to $60.46 per barrel after the US President Donald Trump said: "Hopefully OPEC will be keeping oil flows as is, not restricted. The world does not want to see, or need, higher oil prices!"
The rupee continued to depreciate and traded at Rs 70.88 to a US dollar from its close of Rs 70.46. It had slipped below the 71-mark during the afternoon session of the trade. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
Selling by foreign institutional investors (FII's) and domestic institutional investors (DII)on Wendnesday also weighed on investor sentiments as provisional figures from BSE showed that FII sold stocks worth Rs 357.82 crore and DII off-loaded Rs 791.59 crore of shares. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

$100 billion investment in telecom to add $1.2 trillion to India's GDP -The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


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06 December 2018
 
National Digital Communications Policy(The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)


The investment of $100 billion in the Indian telecom industry as envisioned in the National Digital Communications Policy 2018 (NDCP) would result in an increase of $1.21 trillion in India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on a cumulative basis, a report said here on Thursday.

Currently, India is a $2.5 trillion economy. The joint report by Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations and Broadband India Forum also said that a 10 per cent hike in investment in the country's telecom sector may lead to an increase of 3.3 per cent in the country's GDP on an average. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

"The multiplier effect of investment in communications implies that the $100 billion investment envisioned in the new policy could cumulatively add $1.21 trillion (Rs 78,90,711 crore) to the GDP over the duration of the proposed investment," the report said.

 "These are significant impacts and yet could be underestimated given that penetration of internet is still below international levels," it added.

Speaking at the launch of the report, Aruna Sundararajan, Secretary, Department of Telecommunications stated: "While the first wave of mobile revolution heralded a new age of growth and dynamism to the economy, the second wave is now being led by the growth of internet subscribers and investments in telecommunication infrastructure, leading to exponential benefits to the economic and GDP growth." The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

It is critical therefore for states across India to leverage it to ensure greater direct and spill-over benefits, she added. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions