Friday, 11 November 2016

SBI's deposits zoom by Rs 53,000 cr in two days, Q2 net falls -The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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11 November 2016

As much as Rs53,000 crore were deposited with the State Bank of India (SBI) during the last two days after the government's demonetisation move, bank Chairperson Arundhati Bhattacharya said on Friday.

She said the bank received Rs31,000 crore on Thursday and Rs22,000 on Friday. 

According to her, the SBI also exchanged currencies valued around Rs1,500 crore.

On Tuesday, the Centre announced Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes ceased to be legal tenders from November 8 midnight. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

"The cash is drying up. But we are taking care of it. There is no need to panic. We still have 50 days in hand. Nothing is going out of fashion. Till that time, please publicise the use of debit cards," she told reporters here while announcing the bank's second quarter results.

The SBI said it closed the second quarter of the current fiscal with a lower net profit of Rs 2,538.32 crore.

The bank said it has posted a net profit of Rs 2,538.32 crore for the quarter ended September 30, down from Rs 3,879.07 crore for the quarter ended September 30, 2015.

The bank's total income for the period under review increased to Rs 50,742.99 crore compared with Rs 46,854.81 crore for the quarter ended September 30, 2015. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The bank's unamortised loss on account of selling its assets to Asset Reconstruction Companies as on September 30, 2016, stands at Rs 516 crore. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The bank's Board of Directors also approved issuance of maximum 13,63,65,146 equity shares of face value of one rupee each, to the shareholders of State Bank of Bikaner and Jaipur (SBBJ), State Bank of Mysore (SBM), State Bank of Travancore (SBT) and the government of India (GoI) for its shareholding in Bharatiya Mahila Bank Limited (BMBL) as on the record date at the agreed swap ratio as under:

a) For minority shareholders of SBBJ -- 28 equity shares of SBI of the face value of Re 1 each to be issued in lieu of 10 equity shares of SBBJ of the face value of Rs 10 each.

b) For minority shareholders of SBM -- 22 equity shares of SBI of the face value of Re 1 each to be issued in lieu of 10 equity shares of SBM of the face value of Rs 10 each.

c) For minority shareholders of SBT -- 22 equity shares of SBI of the face value of Re 1 each to be issued in lieu of 10 equity shares of SBT of the face value of Rs 10 each.

d) 4,42,31,510 Equity shares of SBI of the face value of Re1 to be issued to the Government of India in lieu of their shareholding in BMBL (i.e. 100 crore shares of the face value of Rs10 each).


As a result the issued capital of the SBI will go up from Rs776,35,98,072 to Rs789,99,63,218 (maximum), subject to approval of the schemes of acquisition of SBBJ, SBM, SBT and BMBL by the government of India.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

US probe will not impact Indian drug firms: Fitch -The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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11 November 2016

The probe by the US Department of Justice into the suspected price cartelization in the pharmaceutical industry will not have a major impact on the Indian drug firms, Fitch Ratings said on Friday.

In a statement Fitch Ratings said: "The ongoing probe by the US Department of Justice (DoJ) into suspected price collusion in the pharmaceutical industry is unlikely to have a significant impact on Indian pharma firms." The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Citing news reports, Fitch said while the probe is likely to include more generic drugs, the situation is still evolving amid the current political environment in the US.

"In any case, we expect the impact to be minimal for Indian pharma, given the already-high price-based competition across most categories over the past few years and the reasonably diversified generic portfolios of Indian pharma companies," Fitch said. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The antitrust investigations which began about two years ago have attracted investor attention recently, with news of the likely expansion of the investigation into more generic drugs and the first charges being filed possibly by end-2016. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The probe has focused on a few high-priced complex generic drugs so far, which attracted prosecutors' attention due to considerable price increases amid the ongoing policy focus on limiting healthcare costs in the US. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Indian pharma exports to the US are focused mainly on simple generics, competing with a substantial set of competitors offering similar post-patent products. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Indeed, the high level of direct competition along with channel consolidation has caused downward pressure on prices, leading to deflationary trends in many generic drugs.

"Overall, we expect the regulatory environment in the US to remain supportive for generics-focused pharma," Fitch added. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


This is in light of the underlying policy focus on containing healthcare costs and steps to enhance drug affordability such as faster Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA) approvals under Generic Drug User Fee Amendments (GDUFA), which will increase the availability of economically priced generic alternatives, said Fitch.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Serpentine queues outside ATMs, most run cash-dry -The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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11 November 2016

The general public faced severe hardship in many parts of the country in getting the demonetised currency notes exchanged. This is a round-up from three states:
Despite assurances by the Union Finance Ministry and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) of "sufficient currency notes", most ATMs here and in some other parts of Uttar Pradesh went dry on Friday.

People standing in serpentine queues outside bank branches and ATM kiosks got rowdy at some places while at others they openly aired their disappointment. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Although the ATMs opened on Friday after a gap of two days, many remained cashless. Security guards at these ATMs faced a tough time explaining the situation to angry customers.

Most of these customers said they had urgent needs and emergencies requiring immediate money. 

The RBI office in Gomtinagar here was flooded with people who had more questions to ask but no cash to take away. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Police presence was increased at important banks and ATMs following the huge public turnout. 

Senior officials said they stepped up security at most places as they feared the crowd might turn unruly in case the people were unsuccesful in withdrawing money from banks.

Reports of minor spats between bank customers and security officials at ATMs came in from some parts of western UP. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Small traders and common people were facing severe hardship after demonetisation of Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes even though ATMs opened on Friday after a two-day closure.

Long queues were witnessed at banks and ATMs as people rushed to get new bank notes. However, they faced difficulties in withdrawing money at hundreds of ATMs in Bhubaneswar and other cities as many ATMs ran out of cash in a couple of hours. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Lakhs of people were disappointed as thousands of ATMs did not dispense cash. Adding to the woes, some ATMs were still closed, said sources.

"I had gone to the bank on Thursday and stood in the queue for hours. When my turn came, the bank manager said that the new notes were finished by that time. Now, the ATMs have no cash. I don't know what to do as I have no money," said Ranjan Samal, an engineering student studying in a Bhubaneswar college. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The few people who succeeded in withdrawing money also faced problems in exchanging them in the markets for smaller denomination notes like Rs 100, Rs 50, Rs 20 and Rs 10.

"Small businesses like medicine stores and roadside food stalls are not accepting high denomination notes. The local buses and auto-rickshaws are also not accepting them. Even though I managed to withdraw money from an ATM, I cannot eat anything nor travel," said Biswajit Rout, a resident of Bhubaneswar. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

"Our business has been affected due to the demonetisation. We hardly transact any business as we don't have small denominations. People are coming with Rs 500 notes and we don't have change. The problem will persist till the demand and supply gap in floating cash is bridged," Odisha Byabasayi Mahasangha (traders' body) General Secretary Sudhakar Panda said.

 ATM outlets of many private banks in Kolkata remained closed or had boards reading 'out of order' on Friday, three days after demonetisation of Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 currency notes.

Bank branches, which had resumed operations a day before, saw a more than three-time increase in footfall and an almost five-fold rise in transactions as customers rushed to deposit, exchange and withdraw money. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

People, who were expecting to draw the much-needed cash from the ATMs, which were slated to resume operations from Thursday midnight, braced up for another day without money as several outlets of even SBI were closed near the all-important location of Sealdah Railway Station on Friday morning.

"The ATMs in the vicinity of my residence are closed. I was hopeful that ATM outlets at a busy station like Sealdah would be working. Now I am in a fix," lamented a passenger, who has to undertake a two-hour journey daily to get to his place of work. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

As per the rule imposed by the Reserve Bank of India, each ATM card can be used to withdraw a maximum of Rs 2,000 in a day. However, the surcharge on ATM cards beyond five transactions a month has been waived for the time being. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Even some of the ATMs which were open, ran dry after a few hours, angering people who had queued up before the machines hours earlier. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The pace everywhere was sluggish. Customers were not certain whether they would be able to make use of the ATMs due to high demand. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

"I am worried that ATMs might soon go out of cash as many have brought multiple cards with them to withdraw money," said a man, waiting in front of an outlet for more than a hour.

According to bankers, it would take more than a week to completely flush out scrapped currencies from the ATM outlets across the country and fill them with usable denominations.

"It would take almost 10 days to bring normalcy in ATM operations", said SBI chief Arundhati Bhattacharya. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


Though some people in the queues commended the central government's move to curb black money in the country, almost everyone agreed that their dash for cash would continue for at least a few more days. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Rs3,35,000 cr currency may be destroyed in demonetisation: Think tank -The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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11 November 2016

The surprise demonetisation of high value denomination currency may lead to likely destruction of banknotes worth over Rs3,35,000 crore while new notes worth Rs1,34,000 crore may be added to the banking system, a leading think tank said on Friday. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

"This step by the government is a death blow to the cash component of black money in India," Imagindia Institute President Robinder Sachdev said. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

"Over $50 billion (Rs3,35,000 crore) of illegitimate cash will be destroyed, and over $20 billion (Rs1,34,000 crore) of legitimate cash will enter banking channels to become legal," Sachdev said. 

The move comes in the wake of the voluntary Income Disclosure Scheme (IDS) that ended on September 30 and reportedly netted $19 billion (Rs 1,27,490 crore), according to the Washington Post.

It means that India's war on domestic black money will bring in approximately $40 billion (Rs 2,68,400 crore) into the formal banking system of the country by December 31, think tank Imagindia Institute said.

According to Reserve Bank of India (RBI), the total value of the outstanding currency in circulation in the Indian economy as on October 28 stood at Rs 17.77 lakh crore, or about $265 billion. 

RBI data also shows that as on March 31, currency notes of Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 comprised 86 per cent of the total currency value in circulation. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

"Not all currency notes in circulation are illegally acquired cash. Our model to assess the impact of this step by the Indian government accounts for 70 per cent of cash in currency notes of Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 as legitimate, and 30 per cent as illegitimate cash stowed away in bags and hiding places," it said.

This strike on the black economy will, at the same time, eliminate fake currency and cripple terror financing, significantly strengthening India's financial and banking infrastructure, as well as bring almost all of India into the formal banking system. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

However, Imagindia also added that the current cash in circulation or hide-outs is a minor proportion of the black money that has been generated in India. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

"It can easily be agreed that 20 per cent of India's GDP is unreported, and in the black economy... In the past ten years, from 2006 to 2015, India's accumulated GDP was $20,134 billion," according to World Bank data. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

"At 20 per cent of illegal money, it means that $4,027 billion have been created as black money in India in past ten years," Sachdev said. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Majority of black money generated in past ten years was converted into legal bank deposits, land and property, gold, diamonds, silver, art, and other such items.

In addition, portions of it were sent abroad to safe havens and investments, or circled back as legal investments in Indian companies, he added. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

"Through this war on cash economy, the government will be able to destroy only $50 billion out of the $4,027 billion that was generated. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


"However, this is the maximum that can be done at this stage... nevertheless, it is a body-blow to the future of black money in India," he said.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Nifty, Sensex to remain under pressure – Weekly closing report -The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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11 November 2016

I had mentioned in last week’s closing report that Nifty, Sensex were likely to remain under pressure. The major indices of the Indian stock markets showed a lot of volatility and closed with significant losses for the week. On Friday, in particular, the losses were around 2.5% over Thursday’s close. The trends of the major indices in the course of the week’s trading are given in the table below: The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
 
Weekly Indices (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)
Global cues such as the US presidential election, trends in dollar strength and crude oil prices are expected to drive investors' sentiments during the week. Besides, the direction of foreign fund flows, along with the ongoing quarterly results would be other major themes to look out for during the week starting November 7, market analysts said. 

Short covering, value buying and lower chances of a US rate-hike lifted the Indian equity markets on Monday.  The key indices closed the day's trade with gains of over half a per cent each as buying was witnessed in banking, healthcare and metal stocks. On the NSE, there were 1,097 advances, 392 declines and 46 unchanged. On the BSE, there were 2,020 advances, 861 declines and 129 unchanged. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The government-owned-United Bank of India on Monday said it would raise Rs300 crore through preferential allotment of equity shares to Life Insurance Corporation (LIC). In a regulatory filing in BSE the bank said its Board of Directors has approved preferential allotment of equity to LIC or any fund(s) thereof up to Rs300 crore. Meanwhile, the bank closed the second quarter of the current fiscal with a lower net profit of Rs43.53 crore down from Rs61.86 crore posted during the comparable period in 2015. The bank had earned a total income of Rs2,893.31 crore for the quarter ended September 30, 2016, down from Rs2,927.19 crore earned during the quarter ended September 30, 2015. The bank’s shares closed at Rs21.50, up 3.61% on the BSE. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Private sector ICICI Bank Ltd on Monday said it closed the second quarter of the current fiscal with a net profit of Rs3,102.27 crore as compared to Rs3,030.11 crore for the same quarter last year. In a regulatory filing in BSE, the bank said it its total income has increased from Rs16,106.22 crore for the quarter ended September 30, 2015 to Rs22,759.08 crore for the quarter ended September 30, 2016. During the quarter, the bank launched the Unified Payments Interface, or UPI and  enabled  UPI  based  transactions  on  its’  mobile  banking  applications  -‘iMobile’  and  ‘Pockets’.  The bank now has over 200,000 Virtual Payment Addresses on UPI. On Tuesday, the bank’s shares closed at Rs283.20, up 1.60% on the BSE.

Ceat Limited, an RPG Group company, on Monday reported a 1.55% rise in its consolidated net profit to Rs106.92 crore for the quarter ended September 30, 2016 as compared to Rs105.28 crore in the corresponding period last year. On a consolidated basis, the tyre maker's revenue stood at Rs1,419 crore in the three months ended September 30, up by 5.7% on a year-on-year basis. EBITDA stood at Rs194 crore from Rs192 crore on a year on year basis, while margins were at 13.7% during the quarter. On the products front, the company launched puncture safe tyres for bikes - a first in India, and fuel smart series for passenger cars, a statement added. The company’s shares closed at Rs1,305.95, up 7%, on the BSE.

Profit booking on Tuesday after Monday's gains triggered selling pressure in healthcare, capital goods and IT (information technology) stocks. However, close to the end of the trading session, optimistic investors ensured a rally on thinner trading to close with minor gains over Monday’s close. On the NSE, there were 617 advances, 849 declines and 59 unchanged. On the BSE, there were 1,354 advances, 1,528 declines and 126 unchanged.

On Wednesday at the open, the Sensex crashed 1,688 points, or 6.12%, following Donald Trump’s lead in the US elections and the government's decision the previous evening to demonetise Rs500 and Rs1,000 currency notes. However, by the time Democratic Party’s Hillary Clinton conceded defeat and Trump gave his victory speech, the index had significantly risen from the lows, and was quoting at 27,207.92 points, down 383.22 points, or 1.39%. 

Initially, all the 30 shares that go into the Sensex basket were quoting in the red. But upon the recovery, four stocks were in the green, three of them from the pharma space -- Dr Reddy's, Sun Pharma (closed at Rs661.10, up 4.07%, on the BSE on Wednesday) and Lupin (closed at Rs1,529.05, up 1.31% on the BSE on Wednesday). The State Bank of India was also in the positive territory (closed at Rs259.75, up 2.83%, on the BSE on Wednesday).

On the NSE there were 1,354 declines, 279 advances and 245 unchanged on Wednesday. On the BSE there were 2,157 declines, 610 advances and 97 unchanged. NSE trading volumes were higher than average, reflecting the volatility in the stock markets on Wednesday.

A day after global and domestic cues heavily dented investors' sentiments, the Indian equity markets made substantial gains during the mid-afternoon trade session on Thursday. The key indices traded with gains of more than 0.97% each as positive global markets, rupee appreciation and short covering enhanced investors' risk-taking appetite. Sector-wise, buying was witnessed in all the 19 sub-indices of the BSE, led by banking, metal and healthcare stocks. Another positive trigger for the domestic markets was the Finance Minister's announcement that the Goods and Services Tax would most probably get implemented by September next year. The overall sentiment in the global markets remained positive. On the NSE, there were 1,184 advances, 268 declines and 31 unchanged. On the BSE there were 2,023 advances, 727 declines and 132 unchanged. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


The market indices fell heavily on Friday as there were fears of US rate hike, stronger dollar and fears of lower growth following demonetisation. The key indices, on Friday, traded with losses of more than 2.5% each over Thursday’s close, as selling pressure was witnessed in automobile, consumer durables and banking stocks. The BSE market breadth was skewed in favour of the bears -- with 2,101 declines and 410 advances. On the NSE, there were 1,428 declines, 193 advances and 258 unchanged. The rupee has weakened on the back of the dollar gaining strength. This has also increased the possibility of a US Fed rate-hike in December. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Thursday, 10 November 2016

The impact of Trump on the U.S. economy-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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10 November 2016

What are some of the areas that Trump is really going to be focused on in the first part of his term?


One point that I would make is that even when Obama first came into office and he had both houses of Congress, how hard it was to get things done. And he came in with a pretty long agenda and accomplished Obamacare and a stimulus programme, and certainly the stimulus programme wasn't exactly what he wanted it to be.
So it's very hard, even though you have thoughts about what you want to do, but you have to run it by so many other people, so whatever he wants isn't necessarily what he gets.


But there are a number of issues where he's been pretty clear that he wants something done and that could have an impact on the economy.


Trade has been a signature issue. If the U.S. does have more protectionist policies, what kind of impact could that have?
The biggest impacts there would probably be on our trading partners, rather than us. Although what will happen is we'll slow down the entire world economy if we do less trading; the specific advantages that you get, the specializations you get from trade are all helpful things, and now we're kind of suggesting that maybe we won't be doing that anymore and we'll have a more "buy America" type of focus.


If he puts up trade barriers, it could make goods more expensive in the U.S. If we bring in less stuff from the rest of the world it's going to slow their growth rates, and certainly we'll be able to sell less stuff and we may be subject to more tariffs.


Trade is about 12% of U.S. GDP, so it's not a small number and with very low growth rates to start with, it isn't wonderful. And we're already starting out in the hole, if you will, on trade, where there's very little growth in trade, either in imports or exports over the last year.


So, clearly, some of the things he's talking about addressing have already, of their own volition really slowed up. There's like no growth in goods imports, which is just unheard of.


Immigration is another signature issue. We've talked before about a potential of labor shortages in the U.S. If we do see a limit on illegal immigration and a crack down on undocumented immigration, would you expect some labor market problems?


Maybe it’s a little bit simplistic, but a country's immigration policy is very closely correlated with how the country’s done growth-wise.
Japan has no immigration for all practical purposes. They have a negative GDP growth and a very bad lost decade or decades.
Europe’s got less restrictive policies than Japan, but still not the most optimal policy. They haven't lit the world on fire with the growth rates.


And the U.S. with the more liberal immigration policies has done the best of those three major markets.


Australia and Canada are doing fairly well, but they're helped along by commodities too, but those countries have been able to have a fairly high immigration rate which has helped.


Infrastructure spending. There's some bipartisan support for this. Where would that spending be? Could it have a real impact on growth?


The "where" will be very interesting, and exactly how it's spent. But I think everybody has decided around the world that just maybe a monetary policy and negative rates isn't gonna be enough to get things going again.


How do you do that?


There's many ways, but certainly one of the ways is by government infrastructure building, which puts a lot of people back to work, and helps a class of people that have been having trouble finding work. So it's clearly something that could be very positive.


The question is, where do we get the money to pay for that? That's been the big issue in a lot of countries. It all sounds good, "Oh yeah, let's spend more money on infrastructure," but everybody's running very tight budgets and nobody wants to pay more in taxes. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


Trump potentially could be focused on lowering taxes, changing Obamacare, changing healthcare. When you look at the totality of what he potentially would like to accomplish, does it really change your thinking on what the long-term growth rate for the U.S. is?

I am not changing my forecast. As you know, I've grown increasingly more cautious about the U.S. economy over the last six months as we've seen a number of key industries, like autos, like airliners, like shale, and even healthcare, beginning to top out, and with those being key growth drivers, I've been concerned about GDP growth slowing. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


Now some demographic issues probably mean that's not a disaster, that we're not going to fall to pieces or have another huge, major recession, but certainly pretty dramatic slowing in growth rates.



That certainly adding in some uncertainty in there--I'm not a big one that's like, "Oh uncertainty ruined these ... " anything. I think if somebody's got a great business in front of them, they're not gonna say, "Well gee, I don't know what the president's gonna do, I guess I'm not doing anything." I don't think Steve Jobs said that when he was rolling out the iPhone. So I think that's overused sometimes, but in the short run, the uncertainty created by this, until he actually gets into office and see what he wants to do first, it may just be enough to slow us up even a little bit more than I had been thinking.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions