Friday 11 January 2019

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12Th January 2019

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Nifty, Sensex May Bounce Back a Bit – Weekly closing report -The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


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11 January 2019

I had mentioned in last week’s closing report that Nifty, Sensex might rally if global markets remained steady. The major indices of the Indian stock markets were range-bound during the week and closed on Friday with small weekly gains over last Friday’s close. The trends of the major indices in the course of the week’s trading are given in the table below:


The major indices of the Indian stock markets were range-bound on Monday and closed with gains over Friday’s close. On the NSE, there were 876 advances, 862 declines and 347 unchanged.

The Sensex advanced on Monday following Asian markets on signs of an easing trade tensions. Talks between US and China are scheduled to be held on Monday and Tuesday. Barring the healthcare sector, all the other sectorial stocks traded comfortably in the green on both the NSE and the BSE.

The Indian currency, however, was trading flat at Rs69.73 per US dollar from its previous close of 69.72.

Cash-strapped state-run Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL) on Sunday said it had taken an overdraft of Rs962 crore. "With anticipated collection up to March, the cash position is expected to improve. Orders for LCA (Light Combat Aircraft) Mark 1A 83 and LCH (Light Combat Helicopter) 15 are in advanced stages," said HAL in a tweet from its official Twitter account. The defence aerospace major, however, did not mention from whom or which bank the overdraft was taken and for what purpose. The company's clarification on its cash crunch is the wake of a media report in a national newspaper on Friday that it had borrowed nearly Rs1,000 crore "to pay salaries to its 29,000 employees". 

The major indices of the Indian stock markets were range-bound on Tuesday and closed with small gains over Monday’s close. On the NSE, there were 829 advances, 896 declines and 341 unchanged.

Caution ahead of the outcome of ongoing US-China trade talks and Q3 corporate earning session kept the major indices in a short range on Tuesday. Sensex and Nifty logged marginal gains during the afternoon session. The US-China trade talks assume special significance as analysts say both sides face a resumption of tariffs in March if they don't strike a deal. The two economic giants agreed on a 90-day trade truce in early December. Also, Q3 corporate earning session starting this week kept the investors from taking position. On the domestic front, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das will meet representatives of Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFC) on Tuesday pushing the banking stocks 0.82% higher. In contrast, consumer durable and power sectors traded lower but the finance stocks managed to stay in the green.

Most of the central government offices, banks, port trusts and other state government departments wore a deserted look on Tuesday as employees launched a two-day nationwide trade strike, a top organiser said here in Mumbai.

The Delhi High Court set aside a Central government notification restricting the manufacture, sale and distribution of an anti-inflammatory medicine Ace Proxyvon manufactured by pharma company Wockhardt Ltd. Ace Proxyvon, which combines the dosage of aceclofenac, paracetamol and rabeprazole, is used to get relief from pain and inflammation associated with rheumatoid arthritis, osteoarthritis and ankylosing spondylitis. The high court observed that the Centre's decision to ban the drug had been taken without application of mind and order was passed without following certain procedures.

The major indices of the Indian stock markets were range-bound on Wednesday and closed with gains over Tuesday’s close. On the NSE, there were 701 advances, 1,009 declines and 356 unchanged.

Sensex gained during Wednesday afternoon's trade session over signs of easing US-China trade tensions and expectation of healthy Q3 corporate results. The third quarter results session will start with the earning announcement of Tata Consultancy Services. The IT (information technology) major is scheduled to announce its results on Thursday. Globally, investors awaited the outcome of US-China trade talks which has been extended. Sector-wise, metal, oil and gas stocks lost over 1% but key finance and banking stocks traded in the green.

State-owned NMDC announced a buyback of 3.23% equity shares at a price of Rs98 per stock for a consideration not exceeding Rs1,000 crore. The buyback decision was taken by the company's Board in its meeting held on Tuesday. The company's regulatory filing to the BSE said that its Board has "approved the proposal to buyback of not exceeding 10,20,40,815 equity shares at a price of Rs98 per equity share payable in cash for an aggregate consideration not exceeding Rs1,000 crore representing 4.11% of the aggregate of the fully paid-up equity share capital and free reserves."

Just a week after lowering its revenue estimate for the first quarter of fiscal 2019, Apple is cutting its current production plan for new iPhones by about 10% for the January-March quarter, the Nikkei Asian Review reported on Wednesday. Apple, being a market leader, is conservative on growth and consequently, equity analysts are conservative about capital appreciation in 2019 in the US stock market as a whole.

The major indices of the Indian stock markets were range-bound on Thursday and closed with small losses over Wednesday’s close. On the NSE, there were 846 advances, 860 declines and 359 unchanged.

Sensex and Nifty traded lower on Thursday over a sharp rise in crude oil prices and decline in financial stocks. Brent crude futures on Thursday surpassed the $60-a-barrel mark. Also, investors awaited Q3 corporate results, set to start on Thursday, and more clarity regarding US-China trade talks. It is observed that crude price rise would have an adverse effect on the Indian rupee. In addition, the supply cut by OPEC and other major oil producers came into effect from January 1. Lately, excess US oil has pushed down prices. Accordingly, the Indian currency weakened to Rs70.57 per dollar from its previous close of 70.46.

On Friday, the major indices of the Indian stock markets were range-bound and closed with small losses over Thursday’s close. On the NSE, there were 707 advances, 1,000 declines and 358 unchanged.

A continuous rise in global crude oil prices, along with caution ahead of key micro-economic data to be released later in the day, dragged the Indian equity market into the red on Friday. The benchmark Brent crude prices rose over 0.5% to cross the $62 a-barrel-mark. Stocks of IT (information technology), banking and finance sectors were heavily sold. Realty sector stocks also ended 1.43% lower after Finance Minister Arun Jaitley said at Thursday's GST Council Meeting that owing to diverse opinions, a decision on the much-expected rate reduction for under-construction homes would be taken at a later meeting.

Bandhan Bank reported a 10.3% increase in its net profit for the third quarter (Q3) of 2018-19. Its net profit during the quarter under review rose to Rs331 crore from Rs300 crore in the corresponding period of last fiscal. "Net Interest Income (NII) for the quarter grew by 53.5% at Rs1,124 crore as against Rs732 crore in the corresponding quarter of the previous year," the bank said in a statement. According to the lender, its net NPA (non-performing asset) as on December 31, 2018 stood at to 0.7% as against 0.8% on December 31, 2017. "Gross NPAs as on 31 December 2018 at 2.4% against 1.3% as on 30 September 2018 and 1.7% as on 31 December, 2017," the statement said. In addition, the bank, without naming the IL&FS Group, said that it has made provision of Rs384.95 crore in respect of an exposure "to a borrower from Infrastructure development and finance sector, which was classified as non-performing asset and fully provided for during the quarter". Bandhan Bank shares closed at Rs452.45, down 4.05% on the NSE.

Indian IT (information technology) bellwether Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) posted robust net profit and revenue growth for the third quarter of this fiscal (2018-19), beating estimates by analysts and a weaker rupee. The city-based Tata Group's flagship company reported Rs8,121 crore consolidated net profit for the quarter (Q3) under review, registering 24% annual growth from Rs6,545 crore in the same period a year ago. Similarly, consolidated revenue for the quarter grew 21% year-on-year (YoY) to Rs37,338 crore from Rs30,904 crore in the like period a year ago. Sequentially, net profit, however, rose 2.5% from Rs7,927 crore but revenue remained flat (0.1%) from Rs36,854 crore a quarter ago. Under the International Financial Reporting Standard (IFRS), net income grew 12% YoY to $1,140 million from $1,014 million in the same period a year ago and gross revenue rose 9.7% YoY to $5,250 million from $4,787 million in the like period a year ago. Sequentially, net income grew 1.9% from $1,119 million and gross income remained flat (0.7%) from $5,215 million a quarter ago. Profit before tax grew 24% YoY to Rs10,727 crore from Rs8,651 crore in the same period year ago and 2.2% sequentially from Rs10,501 crore a quarter ago. Operating margin for the quarter at 25.6% remained flat (0.4%) YoY. Accounting for 30% of the revenue, digital business grew a whopping 53% YoY during the quarter. Geographically, it grew in Britain 25% YoY and in Europe 17.6% YoY. "The board has recommended Rs4 or a whopping 400% dividend per share of Re1 face value," said the company in a statement here later. TCS shares closed at Rs1,842.55, down 2.39% on the NSE.

Global software major Infosys will buy back its shares again and pay special dividend to its shareholders for this fiscal (2018-19), said the company. "The company's Board of Directors will consider buyback of its paid-up equity shares, payment of special dividend and implementation of the Capital Allocation Policy at its meeting on January 11," said the city-based IT firm in a regulatory filing on the BSE. The board had approved the capital allocation policy at its meeting on April 13, 2018. Infosys on Friday reported Rs3,610 crore consolidated net profit for the third quarter of fiscal 2018-19, posting nearly 30% annual decline from Rs5,129 crore in the same period a year ago. In a regulatory filing on the BSE, the city-based IT behemoth said consolidated revenue for the quarter (Q3) under review, however, grew 20.3% annually to Rs21,400 crore from Rs17,794 crore in the like period a year ago. Sequentially too, net profit dipped 12% from Rs4,110 crore but revenue rose 3.8% from Rs20,609 crore a quarter ago. Under the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS), net income declined nearly 37% annually to $502 million in Q3 from $796 million a year ago and declined sequentially 13.6% from $581 million a quarter ago. Gross income under IFRS, however, grew 8.4% to $2,987 million in Q3 from $2,755 million in the like period a year ago and 2.2% sequentially from $2,921 million a quarter ago. Infosys shares closed at Rs683.50, up 0.68% on the NSE.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Weekly Indices (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)



Industrial growth falls to 17-month low of 0.5 per cent in November -The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


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11 January 2019
 
Industrial output growth (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)


Industrial output growth dropped to a 17-month low of 0.5 per cent in November on account of contraction in manufacturingsector, particularly consumer and capital goods. Factory output as measured in terms of the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) had grown by 8.5 per cent in November 2017, as per data released by the Central Statistics Office (CSO) Friday. The previous low was in June 2017, when IIP growth contracted by 0.3 per cent.

The growth for October 2018 was revised upwards to 8.4 per cent from 8.1 per cent. During the April-November period, industrial output grew 5 per cent as compared to 3.2 per cent in the same period of the previous fiscal. The manufacturing sector, which constitutes 77.63 per cent of the index, recorded a contraction of 0.4 per cent in November as against a growth of 10.4 per cent a year ago.

The mining sector posted 2.7 per cent growth during the month as against 1.4 per cent in November 2017.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Power sector output also grew by 5.1 per cent from 3.9 per cent a year ago. Capital goods output declined by 3.4 per cent, compared to 3.7 per cent growth a year ago. Consumer durables output also dipped by 0.9 per cent as against a growth of 3.1 per cent a year earlier.

Consumer non-durable goods also saw a contraction of 0.6 per cent as compared to 23.7 per cent growth a year ago. In terms of industries, 10 out of 23 industry groups in the manufacturing sector showed positive growth during November 2018. As per use-based classification, the growth rates in November 2018 over November 2017 are 3.2 per cent in primary goods, (-) 4.5 per cent in intermediate goods and 5 per cent in infrastructure/construction goods.

India's Iranian oil imports slide in December under U.S. pressure -The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


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11 January 2019
 
India's oil imports(The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)


India's oil imports from Iran fell by 41 percent in December to 302,000 barrels per day oil (bpd), ship tracking data reviewed by Reuters showed, as pressure from U.S. sanctions took effect. The United States introduced tough sanctions aimed at crippling Iran's oil revenuedependent economy in November but gave a six-month waiver to eight nations, including India, which allowed them to import some Iranian oil.

India is restricted to buying 1.25 million tonnes per month, some 300,000 bpd. December imports from Iran were 9.4 percent higher than November when some cargoes were delayed due to lack of ships, the tanker arrival data showed. Iran was the sixth biggest oil supplier to India in December compared to third position it held a year ago and last month Tehran's share of India's overall imports declined to 6.2 percent from 11.7 percent a year ago, the data showed.

 After abandoning the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, U.S. President Donald Trump is trying to end Tehran's nuclear ambitions and ballistic missile programme and curb its support for militants in Syria, Yemen, Lebanon and other parts of the Middle East. In 2018 India shipped about 13 percent more oil from Iran at 531,000 bpd as refiners boosted purchases ahead of the U.S. sanctions drawn by discounts offered by Tehran, the data showed.

Iran was hoping to sell more than 500,000 bpd of oil to India in 2018/19, its oil minister Bijan Zanganeh said in February last year, and had offered almost free shipping and an extended credit period to boost sales to India. In the previous fiscal year that ended on March 31, 2018 India refiners had cut purchases from Iran due to a dispute on the award of development rights of a giant gas field.

Government sources say Reuters' calculations showing India's oil imports from Iran in this fiscal year would be higher than the 452,000 bpd, or 22.6 million tonnes, it imported in the previous year, are correct. In April-December 2018, the first 9 months of this fiscal year, India's oil imports from Iran averaged about 533,800 bpd, up about 22 percent from a year ago, the data showed. India's total oil imports in December were about 4.9 bpd, up about 15 percent from a year ago, the data showed.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Farm loan waivers against economic principles: ADB India chief -The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


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11 January 2019
 
farm loan (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)


Joining the debate on farm loan waivers, Asian Development Bank (ADB) Country Director Kenichi Yokoyama Friday said such write-offs were against economic principles and cannot effectively address the agrarian distress. Yokoyama also advocated for direct transfer of funds to targeted beneficiaries as it would cut down leakages.

On farm loan waiver, he said most of the people are sceptical about it as an economic principle and has moral hazards. "There is a need to address agriculture sector distress...but economic principle wise, farm loan waiver is not an effective means to address farm distress," he said.

 Earlier this week, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said any generalised farm loan waiver adversely impacts the credit culture and the behaviour of borrowers, amid various states announcing waivers. He said loan waiver is related to the fiscal space that a particular state government has. About Rs 1.47 lakh crore of agricultural loans are outstanding in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, which announced waivers recently.

Appreciating the fact that India has a platform to provide Direct Benefit Transfer through Aadhaar, Yokoyama said analysis has to be done on how government can launch universal basic income (UBI) scheme in the most efficient way.

Asked if there was a stress on fiscal deficit, Yokoyama said ADB has no doubt about the government meeting the target. "I think a clear framework is there and mandate given under the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act. We don't have any doubt over it," he said. The Centre has budgeted to contain fiscal deficit at 3.3 per cent of the GDP in the current fiscal, lower than 3.5 per cent in 2017-18.

Last month, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley had exuded confidence of meeting the fiscal deficit target of 3.3 per cent for the current fiscal.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Global Stocks Give Up Some Gains After Solid Start To Year-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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11 January 2019
Financial Markets (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)


Stock markets drifted lower Friday as investors booked some profits after an encouraging couple of weeks that have helped many of the world's leading indexes halve the losses notched up during a bleak end to 2018.
KEEPING SCORE: In Europe, Germany's DAX slipped 0.4 percent to 10,879 while the CAC 40 in France fell 0.5 percent lower to 4,781. The FTSE 100 index of leading British shares was 0.2 percent lower at 6,930. U.S. stocks were poised to open moderately lower too with Dow futures and the broader S&P 500 futures down 0.1 percent.
2019 RELIEF: So far this year, investors have breathed a sigh of relief as hopes of a trade deal between the U.S. and China have risen and comments from officials at the U.S. Federal Reserve have suggested that the pace of interest rate increases could ease this year.
ANALYST TAKE: "Improved trade relations between the US and China and progress towards a deal and away from tariffs is undoubtedly positive and reduces a major headwind," said Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at OANDA. "The same is true of the Fed and its shift to more flexibility on rate hikes."
POWELL SPEECH: Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Thursday that the U.S. central bank has the "ability to be patient" with its plans to gradually raise interest rates. He echoed the tone of other Fed officials who were present at a meeting last month. A market-sensitive Fed is reassuring to investors who fear its tightening policies would send the U.S. economy into recession.
US-CHINA TALKS: Talks between American and Chinese negotiators may have ended without significant breakthroughs, but traders are choosing to focus on the positives. The fact that talks lasted a day longer than planned, conciliatory statements from both sides and the possibility of higher-level talks in the near future are fueling gains in Europe and Asia. In December, U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping agreed to a 90-day tariffs cease-fire, for negotiators to soothe tensions that have unsettled trade.
ASIA'S DAY: Japan's Nikkei 225 index advanced 1 percent to 20,359.70 and South Korea's Kospi was 0.6 percent higher at 2,075.57. Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 0.6 percent to 26,667.27. The Shanghai Composite surged 0.7 percent to 2,553.83.
ENERGY: Benchmark U.S. crude was flat at $52.49 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange while Brent crude, used to price international oils, was down 24 cents at $61.44 per barrel.
CURRENCIES: The euro was up 0.3 percent at $1.1529 while the dollar fell 0.1 percent to 108.27 yen.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Thursday 10 January 2019


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10 January 2019

I had mentioned in Wednesday’s closing report that Nifty, Sensex might log more gains. The major indices of the Indian stock markets were range-bound on Thursday and closed with small losses over Wednesday’s close. On the NSE, there were 846 advances, 860 declines and 359 unchanged. The trends of the major indices in the course of Thursday’s trading are given in the table below:


Sensex and Nifty traded lower on Thursday over a sharp rise in crude oil prices and decline in financial stocks. Brent crude futures on Thursday surpassed the $60-a-barrel mark. Also, investors awaited Q3 corporate results, set to start on Thursday, and more clarity regarding US-China trade talks. It is observed that crude price rise would have an adverse effect on the Indian rupee. In addition, the supply cut by OPEC and other major oil producers came into effect from January 1. Lately, excess US oil has pushed down prices. Accordingly, the Indian currency weakened to Rs70.57 per dollar from its previous close of 70.46.

Tata Power Delhi Distribution Ltd (TPDDL) has signed an agreement with Norwegian power technology company PIXII to explore the use of distributed pole-mounted storage to boost the strength of the distribution grid in the capital, a statement said on Thursday. The Delhi distribution company (discom) said the agreement, signed during Norwegian Prime Minister Erna Solberg's official visit earlier this week, was designed to explore the use of distributed pole-mounted storage for a resilient and sustainable distribution grid. Tata Power Company shares closed at Rs74.90, up 0.74% on the NSE.

US stocks closed higher after the summary of Federal Reserve's meeting held in December 2018 showed the central bank is patient on rate hikes. The Dow Jones Industrial Average on Wednesday increased 91.67 points, or 0.39%, to 23,879.12. The S&P 500 was up 10.55 points, or 0.41%, to 2,584.96. The Nasdaq Composite Index was up 60.08 points, or 0.87%, to 6,957.08. Fed officials acknowledged that the policy path ahead is "less clear" after approving an interest rate hike at their recent meeting. The minutes showed the rate hike came with reluctance from a few members who thought the lack of inflationary pressures argued against another increase. The minutes came after Fed chair Jerome Powell hinted at slower monetary tightening. He said Fed officials were keeping a close eye on the voices of financial market, and that Fed policy was flexible and clung to real-time economic developments. He added that the central bank would not hesitate to adjust its balance sheet reduction plan if it causes problems in the markets. US stocks were also found trading higher on Wednesday as trade talks between China and the US concluded favourably.

The top gainers and top losers of the major indices are given in the table below:


The closing values of the major Asian indices are given in the table below: The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
 
Major Indices (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)


India's fiscal deficit target overshot by 15 per cent: DBS banking group -The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


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10January 2019
 
fiscal deficit (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)


In the first eight months of FY 2018-19, India's fiscal deficit target has overshot by 15 per cent, largely due to a revenue shortfall rather than front-loading of expenditure, Singapore's DBS banking group said in an economic commentary on Thursday.

"Lower than budgeted indirect tax revenues and weak divestment proceeds are a source of worry," wrote Radhika Rao, economist at DBS Group Research, in the commentary. Net direct tax collections have reached the halfway mark. These revenues typically improve towards the end of the year due to end-fiscal flows.

 Markets are less optimistic of a similar boost in indirect collections, the commentary said. The current run-rate of the government's GST revenues is tracking a shortfall of Rs 70,000-80,000 crore against the annual budget. An equally big concern are divestment efforts, with year-to-date collections still at a fifth of the target of Rs 80,000 crore, the commentary said. To jumpstart the process, plans are to offload minority stake sales, conduct share buybacks and exchange-traded funds by end-year, alongside a possible merger of power sector financing firms .

A late push for additional dividends from stateowned entities and the RBI is also likely, with speculation that the central bank might transfer Rs 30,000- 40,000 crore (0.2 per cent of GDP) to the state's coffers, which will be in addition to the Rs 40,000 crore assured in August 2018. "Despite the downbeat year-to-date math, we think that a sizable slippage in the fiscal deficit target is unlikely," the commentary said.

 "We also observe that in recent years, the government has been proactive in jumpstarting expenditure earlier in the year, even if revenues catch-up at a much slower pace," it said. To facilitate this process, the Budget presentation was also brought forward by a month to February. This has led the fiscal run-rate to worsen progressively for three-fourths of the year and then moderate in the final quarter as expenditure is curtailed and seasonal revenue flows kick-in, it said.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions