Saturday, 24 June 2017

Friday, 23 June 2017

Nifty, Sensex May Correct a Bit – Weekly closing report-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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23 June 2017

I had mentioned in last Friday’s weekly closing report that Nifty, Sensex were to move sideways. The major indices of the Indian stock markets have been range-bound over the week’s trading and closed on Friday with little change over last Friday’s close. Nifty, in particular, closed with a minor loss for the week. The trends of the major indices in the course of the week’s trading are given in the table below: The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
 
Weekly Indices (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)
Cheered by positive global cues and buying in banking, metal and capital goods stocks, the Indian equity markets surged on Monday, the 30-scrip Sensitive index (Sensex) of the BSE closing at another fresh high. Shares of major banks rose and added to the gains on reports that Prime Minister Narendra Modi will review the measures taken by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to resolve the non-performing assets (NPA) issue of the Indian state-run banks. The Bank Nifty index scaled a record high of 23,806.65 points. The wider Nifty of the National Stock Exchange (NSE) rose by 69.50 points or 0.72% to close at 9,657.55 points. Besides, investors' sentiments were buoyant after the GST Council on Sunday unanimously agreed on the July 1 rollout of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) regime.  However, the BSE market breadth was bearish -- with 1,467 declines and 1,218 advances.

Prolonged outflow of foreign funds and selling pressure on banking and FMCG stocks wiped off the morning gains and led the Indian equity markets to close on a flat-to-negative note on Tuesday. However, positive European markets and healthy buying in consumer durables, IT, and oil and gas stocks limited the downslide. The wider Nifty of the National Stock Exchange (NSE) inched lower by 4.05 points, or 0.04%, to close at 9,653.50 points. The 30-scrip Sensex of the BSE, which opened at 31,392.53 points, closed at 31,297.53 points, down 14.04 points, or 0.04%, from its previous close at 31,311.57 points. The Sensex touched a high of 31,392.53 and a low of 31,261.49 points during intra-day trade. The BSE market breadth was bearish with 1,428 declines and 1,229 advances. In terms of the broader markets, the BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices outperformed the Sensex. The S&P BSE mid-cap index was up 0.19% and the small-cap index by 0.19%. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

On Tuesday, Tata Motors was the top gainer on the Sensex as its parent was said to be considering an initial public offering in luxury car-maker unit Jaguar Land Rover. Shares of Lupin fell by 1.9% after Credit Suisse said the price erosion risk faced by the company is highest as 75% of USA profit is from low-competition products. Shares of the logistics companies rallied anywhere between 2% and 9% as the country geared up for the launch of unified tax regime, GST. European stocks rose, heading for their best three-day rise since April, boosted by gains in media shares and optimism about the US economy.

Engineering and construction major L&T rose on high volumes on reports the Government of India offloaded a part of its stake in the company via block deals on Wednesday. According to reports, the Government of India sold 2.5% stake in the company via block deals on the stock exchanges on Wednesday, 21 June 2017. On the BSE, 2.39 crore shares were traded on the counter as against the average daily volumes of 1.97 lakh shares in the past one quarter. Most PSU bank stocks rose. Private bank stocks saw mixed trend. Most metal and mining stocks fell. 

Meanwhile, on Wednesday, media reports suggested that ABB India is in discussions with L&T to acquire the latter's electrical and automation division. According to reports, ABB has offered over Rs14000 crore for the deal and discussions are yet to arrive at a final figure. In a separate development, NHPC announced after market hours on Tuesday, 20 June 2017 that it awarded EPC contract for the development of 50 megawatts (MW) Solar Power project in Tamil Nadu to L&T for an amount of Rs287.48 crore. The project is slated to complete in 9 months.

Taking cue from global markets the key Indian equity market indices on Thursday opened higher. The Sensitive Index (Sensex) of the BSE, which had closed at 31,283.64 points on Wednesday, opened higher at 31,351.53 points. It touched a new high of 31,522.87 points during intra-day trade.  On the NSE, there were 621 advances, 1,045 declines and 81 unchanged.

After two days of corrections, the Indian equity markets closed on a flat note during Thursday's trade session. With speculation on further interest rates hikes from the US government, stock markets in India were being hesitant about new market rallies even in the middle of a reasonable South-West monsoon and good domestic economy trends. Medium term investors could expect to book profits by Diwali. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

On Thursday, buying in stocks of banking majors such as State Bank of India, Axis Bank and HDFC Bank lifted the market sentiment. Bank Nifty closed at 23,736.10, up 0.12% on the NSE.


The Indian equity markets traded in the red throughout Friday as broadly negative global cues, coupled with caution ahead of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) implementation and selling pressure in automobile, capital goods, oil and gas and banking stocks, subdued investor sentiments. At the close of trading on Friday, the major indices closed with losses over Thursday’s close.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Home Loan: Affordable housing finance share to increase to 37% by FY2022 -The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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23 June 2017
 
Home Loan (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)
Accelerated urbanisation due to faster economic growth over the last decade and a half has created a massive need for affordable housing as well as home loans in the ticket size of up to Rs15 lakh, says a research note. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

In its report, India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) says, "Affordable housing finance, largely for loan ticket size up to Rs15 lakh will become a large segment for housing finance companies (HFCs) in the next five years, with the estimated share to increase to around 37% in FY2022, compared with 26% in FY2017." The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Ind-Ra says it anticipates a demand for 2.5 crore homes, which is four times of the entire current housing finance stock, over next five years, in the medium income group (MIG) and lower income group (LIG) categories. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

"A combination of factors like government financial and policy thrust, regulatory support, rising urbanisation, increasing nuclearisation of families, and increasing affordability is converting latent demand into a commercially lucrative business opportunity," the ratings agency added.

Ind-Ra expects the sector to attract over Rs20,000 crore of equity inflows over FY2017-FY2022, which would support growth. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Ind-Ra's analysis reveals that on operating cost metrics, the new entrants with their pan-India ambitions would need to build scale quickly to compete with the incumbents, whose regional-focussed models have helped maintain tight operational expenses (opex) ratios, in addition to their funding cost advantage. 

This, Ind-Ra says, entails building up the book at a rapid pace and hence will lead to high proportion of unseasoned portfolio at any point in time. To offset this, it would necessitate having the right people “with adequate skill-set”, who have seen various cycles and scale and the right 'processes', building a scalable credit funnel and robust underwriting platform while getting the pricing, including risk and opex adjusted spreads, right. These would be the key differentiators for the new age housing finance companies (HFCs). The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

According to the ratings agency, informal credit assessment remains the crux for the segment, and therefore reasonable assessment of instalment-paying ability, while keeping sufficient margin for income volatility over lifecycle, would be of prime importance.

Talking about key risks and possible mitigants, Ind-Ra says, aggressive expansion without ensuring appropriate credit assessment could be a risk for the segment, especially in view of limited financial data available and possibly a less financial savvy customer segment. 

"In addition, the segment requires high customer connect, therefore, attracting and retaining people with on ground connect would be of prime importance," the ratings agency says, adding, "HFCs would need to build a sense of ownership, as well as develop a right incentive structure to manage this risk. Operationally, managing liquidity, mainly in view of long tenure nature of assets, would be key consideration." The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


Ind-Ra says it expects a prudent asset liability tenure management by HFCs. "Informal credit assessment remains the crux for the segment, and hence reasonable assessment of instalment paying ability while keeping sufficient margin for income volatility over lifecycle would be of prime importance," it concluded. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

RBI reconstitutes Overseeing Committee on stressed assets-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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23 June 2017

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Thursday said it has reconstituted the "Overseeing Committee (OC)" formed to look at the stressed assets of the banking sector.

"The OC will, for the present, have five members, including a chairman, and will work through multiple benches as may be necessary and constituted by the Chairman to opine on the cases referred to it by the banks," the RBI said in a statement here. 

Further, the apex bank named Pradeep Kumar as Chairman of its reconstituted OC, whose members will take charge from September 7. The OC's other members are financial experts Janki Ballabh, M.B.N. Rao, Y.M. Deosthalee and S. Raman. 

According to RBI, the reconstitution of the OC with an expanded mandate is meant to promulgate the Banking Regulation (Amendment) Ordinance, 2017.

"The reconstituted OC will work with an expanded mandate to review, in addition to cases being restructured under the Scheme for Sustainable Structuring of Stressed Assets (S4A), resolution of other cases where the aggregate exposure of the banking sector to the borrowing entity is greater than Rs 500 crore," the statement said. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

"The circular advising the banks of the above changes and other details of the process to be followed by banks for resolution of identified stressed assets within six months will be issued separately," the apex bank said. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The Banking Regulation (Amendment) Ordinance, 2017 was passed by the Union cabinet and promulgated by the office of the President of India last month.


The ordinance has enhanced RBI's power to tackle the NPAs issue. The Reserve Bank has since brought the OC under its aegis. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Oil Prices Remain Driver Across Financial Markets-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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23 June 2017
European stock markets (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

European stock markets edged lower Friday amid ongoing unease over the outlook for oil prices as well as a slightly disappointing economic survey. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
KEEPING SCORE: In Europe, France's CAC 40 shed 0.6 percent to 5,250 while Germany's DAX fell 0.7 percent to 12,701. Britain's FTSE 100 slipped 0.4 percent to 7,413. Wall Street was poised for a flat opening with Dow futures unchanged and the broader S&P 500 futures up 0.1 percent. "
EBBING ENERGY: Crude oil's extended decline this week and the effect it is having on broader financial markets weighed on investor sentiment and dragged down energy shares. Crude prices rose on Thursday for the first time in four days but they are still near their lowest levels since August. On Friday, they were up a little more, with benchmark New York crude rose 18 cents to $42.92 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
ANALYST TAKE: "There's little reason to believe this is anything more than a dead cat bounce and that next week may be another painful one," said Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at OANDA. Traders are clearly unconvinced by the cuts that are intended to bring inventories down to their five year average, particularly against the backdrop of rising output from the U.S., Libya and Nigeria."
CHINA CLAMPDOWN: Mainland shares fluctuated as officials tightened up on some companies. Authorities ordered three popular internet services, including Sina Weibo, to stop streaming video after they violated censorship rules on sensitive issues. Adding to the pessimism, reports in the South China Morning Post newspaper and financial magazine Caixin on Thursday said the banking regulator is tightening up scrutiny of companies behind a wave of recent overseas acquisitions by ordering banks to check credit-risk exposure to Wanda, Fosun, Anbang and HNA.
EUROPEAN GROWTH: A monthly survey revealed that economic activity in the 19-country Eurozone slipped to a five-month low in June and below market expectations. However, the IHS Markit composite purchasing managers' index remained well into positive territory, with job creation and business confidence still strong. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
ASIA'S DAY: Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 index finished 0.1 percent higher at 20,132.67 and South Korea's Kospi added 0.4 percent to 2,378.60. Hong Kong's Hang Seng was practically unchanged at 25,670.05 while the Shanghai Composite in mainland China swung between gains and losses before ending 0.3 percent higher at 3,157.87. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 crept up 0.2 percent to 5,715.90.

CURRENCIES: The euro was up 0.2 percent at $1.1172 while the dollar fell 0.1 percent at 111.23 yen.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Eurozone Economy Enjoyed 'Best Quarter In Over 6 Years'-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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23 June 2017
Eurozone (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

The economy of the 19-country eurozone has just enjoyed its best quarter for more than six years, according to a closely watched survey. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
Though growth eased slightly in June, financial information firm IHS Markit said Friday that the eurozone's second quarter overall looks like it will be its strongest since the first three months of 2011. It expects quarterly growth to be 0.7 percent, up from the previous quarter's 0.6 percent.
The firm said its composite purchasing managers' index, a broad gauge of economic activity across the eurozone's manufacturing and services sectors, dipped to 55.7 points in June from 56.8 the previous month. Despite the decline, which was more than anticipated in the markets, the index remains way above the 50 level that marks expansion. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
"The latest reading needs to be looked at in the context of recent elevated levels," said Chris Williamson, IHS Markit's chief business economist. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
The survey, which informs the regular policy discussions at the European Central Bank, is the latest in a long line of evidence showing that the eurozone has moved up the gears over the past few months, amid growing confidence about the future.
That was evident too in official French figures showing that the eurozone's second-largest economy expanded by 0.5 percent in the first quarter, up from the previous estimate of 0.4 percent. Hopes are high that growth in France, a long-time laggard, will be even higher over the rest of the year. The pick-up in confidence was clear in the fact that capital investment rose pretty sharply in the first quarter and that it was due to private companies and households, not the French state.
Higher French growth should help job creation, one of the key concerns of the new French government of President Emmanuel Macron. Unemployment in France has been falling but remains high at 9.5 percent.
According to IHS Markit, the signs are good for further job gains both in France and the wider eurozone. Its survey found that job creation in the eurozone remained at a near decade-high as order books and business confidence were strong. Eurozone unemployment has been steadily falling and in April was at an eight-year low of 9.3 percent. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

"Factory jobs growth remained particularly buoyant, thanks in part to production requirements surging higher on the back of rising exports," Williamson said.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Thursday, 22 June 2017

Nifty, Sensex may suffer a short-term decline – Thursday closing report -The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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22 June 2017

I had mentioned in Wednesday’s closing report that Nifty, Sensex were still on an uptrend. The major indices of the Indian stock markets were range-bound on Thursday after almost hitting a new high and ended flat compared to Wednesday’s close. The trends of the major indices in the course Thursday’s trading are given in the table below: The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
 
Major Indices (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)
Taking cue from global markets the key Indian equity market indices on Thursday opened higher. The Sensitive Index (Sensex) of the BSE, which had closed at 31,283.64 points on Wednesday, opened higher at 31,351.53 points. It touched a new high of 31,522.87 points during intra-day trade.  On the NSE, there were 621 advances, 1,045 declines and 81 unchanged. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

After two days of corrections, the Indian equity markets closed on a flat note during Thursday's trade session. With speculation on further interest rates hikes from the US government, stock markets in India are hesitant about new market rallies even in the middle of a reasonable South-West monsoon and good domestic economy trends. Medium term investors can expect to book profits by Diwali.

Asian indices were showing a positive trend. Japan's Nikkei 225 was trading in green, up by 0.22%, the Hang Seng was up by 0.55% while South Korea's Kospi was also up by 0.31%. China's Shanghai Composite index was quoting in green, up by 0.62%. Nasdaq closed in green, up by 0.74% while FTSE 100 was down by 0.33% at the closing on Wednesday. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Hit by global political and economic uncertainties, the Indian IT industry's software exports are projected to grow at 7%-8%  this fiscal (2017-18), which is lower than 8%-10% in the 2016-17 fiscal, the apex Nasscom said on Thursday. "The outlook for the IT industry in fiscal 2017-18 is 7%-8% growth in exports and 10%-11% in the domestic market as against 10%-12% in 2016-17," the National Association of Software and Services Companies (Nasscom) said in a statement.
The lower export outlook comes in the light of political and economic uncertainties that impacted decision-making and discretionary spend during the last fiscal (2016-17). The $150-billion Indian IT industry includes revenues from Business Process Management (BPM), software services and software products. Their exports contribute about 80% to the revenue, with the US market accounting for 60% of it. Noting that digital solutions and niche segments would be the key growth drivers, the industry's representative body said the revenue projection was based on improvements in financial services and high potential in digital business.  Allaying fears of slowdown and job losses, Nasscom Chairman Raman Roy told reporters that the industry was expected to add 1.3-1.5 lakh jobs during the fiscal as it continued to be a net hirer with the demand for skilled professionals growing across its segments. The industry association, however, admitted that it was imperative for new and existing talent to reskill to prepare for emerging job roles which required new skillsets. The S & P BSE Information Technology 9.887.30, 0.33% down on the BSE. Healthy buying in stocks of banking majors such as State Bank of India, Axis Bank and HDFC Bank lifted the market sentiment. Bank Nifty closed at 23,736.10, up 0.12% on the NSE.

The top gainers and top losers of the major indices are given in the table below:
 
Top Gainer (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

The closing values of the major Asian indices are given in the table below: The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
Asian Indices (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

RBI removes restrictions on foreign investment in IDFC -The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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22 June 2017

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Wednesday removed restrictions on foreign investments in IDFC.

"The foreign shareholding by Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs), Foreign Portfolios Investors (FPIs) in M/s IDFC Limited have gone below the prescribed FII/FPI investment limit," the RBI said in a notification. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


"Hence, the restrictions placed on the purchase of shares by FII/FPI of the above company, are withdrawn with immediate effect."The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Corporate debt contraction and deleveraging continues -The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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22 June 2017
Corporate Debt(The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)
The recent corporate results for about 3,000 listed entities suggest the increase in outstanding loan funds at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 8% or so during FY2017 over FY2015. However, there is a contraction in loan funds outstanding for top corporates in FY2017 compared with previous year, either through repayment, equity conversion or restructuring of debt, says a research report.

In the note, State Bank of India (SBI) says, "The outstanding loan funds as on FY2015 stood at Rs22.8 lakh crore increasing to Rs26.5 lakh crore in FY2017. The loan funds outstanding stood at Rs24.2 lakh crore in FY2016. However, we also observe that some top notch corporates reported contraction in loan funds outstanding in FY2017 over FY2016. About 1,000 entities in aggregate, excluding banks and finance companies, reported decline in loan funds to the extent of Rs1 lakh crore. The debt contraction could either be through repayment, equity conversion or restructuring of debt. The top ten entities, saw decline of about Rs33,000 crore." The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
 
Corporate Debt(The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)
According to the report, some of the best known companies that have lowered loan funds include GAIL (-48%), Piramal Enterprises (-37%), National Fertilizers (-37%), L&T (-24%) Hindalco (-20%) and Jet Airways (-22%). Cumulatively, the amount is about Rs20,000 crore. It says, "This could either be perceived as lower debt utilisation levels or prepayment through internal accruals or through asset sale. The reasons could be many, including QIP or private equity participation." The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Talking about financial performance for FY16-17, SBI says, "We find EBIDTA (midline) exhibiting a double digit growth in most of the top 10 sectors, depicting all round growth in top-line, midline and bottom-line. A normal monsoon can see agrochemicals sector bloom. Capital Goods (Electrical Equipment) topped growth in EBIDTA and PAT margins. Agrochemicals and Capital Goods (Electrical Equipment) are the sectors one may monitor for growth in the coming days." The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


Corporate Debt(The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

Long-Term US Mortgage Rates Slip This Week-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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22 June 2017

 
Long-term U.S. mortgage rates (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)
Long-term U.S. mortgage rates dropped slightly this week.
Mortgage buyer Freddie Mac says the benchmark 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.90 percent, down from 3.91 percent last week. The rate stood at 3.56 percent a year ago and averaged a record low 3.65 percent in 2016. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
The 15-year, fixed-rate home loan, popular with homeowners seeking to refinance their mortgages, also blipped lower — to 3.17 percent from 3.18 percent. A year ago, the 15-year rate was 2.83 percent.
The rate on five-year, adjustable-rate mortgages decreased to 3.14 percent from 3.15 percent. It was 2.74 percent a year ago. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
Mortgage rates have remained low even though the Federal Reserve has been raising short-term rates: The Fed last week ratcheted rates higher for the third time in six months.
To calculate average mortgage rates, Freddie Mac surveys lenders across the country between Monday and Wednesday each week. The average doesn't include extra fees, known as points, which most borrowers must pay to get the lowest rates. One point equals 1 percent of the loan amount.

The average fees on 30-year, 15-year and five-year adjustable mortgages were unchanged at 0.5 point.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions