Friday, 28 December 2018

Nifty, Sensex May Head Higher – Weekly closing report-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


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28 December 2018

I had mentioned in last week’s closing report that Nifty, Sensex were under pressure. The major indices of the Indian stock markets were volatile during the week and closed on Friday with small weekly gains of less than 1% over last Friday’s close. The trends of the major indices in the course of the week’s trading are given in the table below:


The major indices of the Indian stock markets suffered a correction on Monday and closed with losses over Friday’s close. On the NSE, there were 532 advances, 1,177 declines and 365 unchanged.

Taking cues from weak global markets major Indian equity indices on Monday ended lower for the third straight session on concerns over the slowing global growth. Except for IT (information technology), Teck (technology, entertainment and media) and telecom sectors on BSE, all the sectors traded lower led by financial stocks. Stocks of major sectors like banking ended 0.33% lower. While metal, energy, oil and gas along with auto and consumer durables counters lost over 1%, dragging down the benchmark index. The domestic currency which closed at 70.15 per US dollar on Friday gained 12 paise as the benchmark Brent Crude declined to 53.64 per barrel.

The major indices of the Indian stock markets were volatile on Wednesday and closed with gains over Monday’s close. On the NSE, there were 730 advances, 953 declines and 378 unchanged. Tuesday was a market holiday for Christmas.

Despite decline in crude oil prices the Sensex on Wednesday dropped over concerns of a slowdown in global growth and a partial shutdown of the US government. All sectors, except consumer durables and capital goods, traded in red. Selling pressure was seen in finance, banking and IT (information technology) stocks. The benchmark Brent Crude prices declined to 50.15 a barrel following which the domestic currency appreciated to 69.97 per US dollar from its previous close of 70.14. However, late in the trading session, the major indices recovered and rallied to close with gains.

All banking operations were paralysed in the country's financial capital on Wednesday, following a strike by various banking employees and officers unions, officials said here. Bank staffers responded enthusiastically to the nationwide strike call for various demands issued by the United Forum of Bank Unions (UBFU).

The major indices of the Indian stock markets were range-bound on Thursday and closed with gains over Wednesday’s close. On the NSE, there were 913 advances, 795 declines and 353 unchanged.

IT (information technology) stocks gained, while the oil and gas and energy stocks edged higher on the BSE. In the past days, investor sentiments were low on concerns that US President Donald Trump would attempt to fire Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Key economic adviser Kevin Hassett's reassurances on Wednesday put this to rest. According to reports, the US president was unhappy post the US central bank hiking the short-term interest rate.

Credit ratings agency ICRA expects the domestic two-wheeler industry's volumes to grow at 8%-10% during FY2019. According to ICRA, the expected growth rate will be supported by growing per capita income, improved farm sentiment following near normal monsoon over last three fiscal, higher MSP and farm loan waiver in select states. "The two-wheeler industry has reported a 11.1% Year over year (YOY) volume growth in April-October 2019. 

This is despite some one-off adverse events during the period increase in insurance premium across the country, floods in Kerala in August 2018 and regulatory changes in West Bengal mandating two-wheeler sale to only valid license holders in July 2018," ICRA said in a statement. "While increase in rural income would support motorcycle demand; the demand for scooters is expected to be led by rapid urbanisation, increased affordability and greater penetration through targeted product launches."

Automobile major Maruti Suzuki India has recalled 5,900 units of light commercial vehicle Super Carry. According to the company, it is "proactively and voluntarily" undertaking the recall campaign. The company would inspect a possible defect in fuel filter of 5,900 Super Carry vehicles manufactured between April 26, 2018 and August 1, 2018. This would also include vehicles in which fuel filter has been replaced in field during this period, the company said in a statement. Starting December 26, 2018, owners of the suspected vehicles would be contacted by Maruti Suzuki dealers for inspection and replacement of the faulty part free of cost. Recall campaigns are undertaken globally to rectify faults that may be potential safety defects.

The major indices of the Indian stock markets rallied on Friday and closed with gains over Thursday’s close. On the NSE, there were 1,085 advances, 611 declines and 367 unchanged.

The financial sector led the gains on the major indices -- BSE Sensex and Nifty50 -- on Friday, as Asian markets advanced, tracking overnight gains in the US markets. Finance stocks, which have the highest weightage among all the sectors on BSE, rose 1.24%. Markets are up on the news of fresh infusion of capital in public sector banks, analysts pointed out.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Weekly Indices (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)



RBI says banks under PCA report slower NPA growth in FY18 -The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


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28 December 2018
 
RBI (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)


The 11 public sector banks that are under the prompt corrective action (PCA) framework have shown lower growth in gross non-performing assets as against non-PCA banks, the Reserve Bank said in a report Friday. 

Of the 21 state-owned banks, as many as 11 are under the PCA framework, which imposes lending and other restrictions on weak lenders. These 11 banks constitute a fifth of the system-wide credit and deposits. 

These are Allahabad BankNSE 0.86 %, United Bank, Corporation BankNSE 2.61 %, IDBI Bank, Uco Bank, Bank of India, Central Bank of India, Indian Overseas BankNSE 1.01 %, Oriental Bank of Commerce, Dena Bank and Bank of Maharashtra. 

The PCA banks have also increased recoveries, while containing the growth in advances and deposits, reducing riskiness of assets and focusing on better rated assets. 

"The PCA banks have also shown lower growth in GNPAs, relative to non-PCA state-run lenders," the report on the 'Trends & Progress of Banking in 2017-18', said. 

The report said various restrictions on PCA banks have resulted in reining in their operating expenses as well. 
Some of these banks have made efforts to identify and sell their non-core assets. However, asset quality and capital position have experienced deterioration. 

"The sharper increase in NPA ratios compared to non- PCA PSBs is also because of decline in advances by the former. As a result, profitability has taken a hit as reflected in negative return on assets," the report said. 

The PCA framework was revised by the RBI with effect from April 2017. Under the framework, RBI monitors key performance indicators of the banks as an early warning exercise and PCA is initiated once the thresholds relating to capital, asset quality and profitability are breached. 

These parameters are tracked through the CRAR/CET 1 ratio, the net NPA ratio and the return on assets. 

The Kerala-based Dhanlaxmi BankNSE 4.95 % is the only private sector bank under the old PCA framework. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Centre mulls zero interest on timely crop loan repayment as new year gift -The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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28 December 2018
Crop Demand(The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)


In a bid to address farmers' distress ahead of 2019 general elections, the government is considering waiving interest on crop loans for farmers who pay on time, costing an additional Rs 15,000 crore to the exchequer, according to sources. There is also a proposal to completely waive premium for taking insurance policy for food crops. The premium on horticultural crops could also be reduced, they said.

The ruling BJP government has swung into action to address distress in the agriculture sector after it lost power to the Congress in three heartland states of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh in the recent state polls.

According to sources, several rounds of meetings have taken place at the highest level in the last few days to chalk out a plan to address difficulties faced by farmers in view of low realisation in several crops amid bumper production.

To provide immediate relief, one of the proposals being studied is to waive 4 per cent interest rate on farmers repaying farm loan promptly within the due date.

At present, farmers get for short-term farm loan of up to Rs 3 lakh at 7 per cent interest rate. An additional incentive of 3 per cent is being given to farmers for prompt repayment.

The government has set a target to provide Rs 11 lakh crore credit to farmers in the current fiscal. It extended Rs 11.69 lakh crore credit to farmers last fiscal, surpassing the target of Rs 10 lakh crore


The Centre bears a cost of around Rs 15,000 crore annually for the interest subsidy of 2 per cent in normal cases and 5 per cent in case of prompt repayment of farm loans.

Sources said that the interest burden could double to Rs 30,000 crore if the interest is completely waived for prompt repayment of farm loans.

Besides, the government is contemplating tweaking Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana (PMFBY) to bring down the farmers' premium burden by fully waiving it on food crops and reducing a bit on horticultural crops.

Launched in April 2016, the PMFBY provides comprehensive crop insurance from pre-sowing to post harvest against non-preventable natural risks at extremely low premium rate of 2 per cent for kharif crops, 1.5 per cent for rabi crops and 5 per cent for horticulture and commercial crops.

The balance premium is paid equally by the centre and state. Claims are settled on the basis of yield loss assessed at the end of the season.

According to sources, farmers are paying currently about Rs 5,000 crore as insurance premium to cover their kharif and rabi crops. The farmers' burden will reduce if the premium is further subsidised.

During the 2017-18 crop year (July-June), 4.79 crore farmers were covered under the PMFBY.

Political experts said that farmers distress will be a major electoral issue in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls.

The agrarian crisis and announcement of loan waivers by the Congress were key factors for the defeat of the saffron party in three Hindi heartland states in recent state polls, they added. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

China allows first-ever U.S. rice imports in 'goodwill gesture' ahead of trade talks-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


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28 December 2018
 
Rice (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

China has opened the door to imports of rice from the United States for the first time ever in what analysts took to signal a warming of relations between the world’s two biggest economies after a frosty year marked by tensions and tit-for-tat tariffs.

The green light from Chinese customs, indicated in a statement posted on the customs authority’s website on Friday, comes in the run-up to talks between the countries in January after U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed a moratorium on higher tariffs that would affect trade worth hundred of billions of dollars.

It wasn’t immediately clear how much rice China, which sources rice imports from within Asia, might seek to buy from the United States. But the move, which comes after years of talks on the matter, follows pledges from China’s commerce ministry of further U.S. trade openings earlier this week.

As of Dec. 27, imports of brown rice, polished rice and crushed rice from the United States are now permitted, as long as cargoes meet China’s inspection standards and are registered with the United States Department of Agriculture.

“The permission for U.S. rice suggests an improving U.S. and China relationship,” said Cherry Zhang, an agriculture analyst with consultancy JCI. Zhang said she expected any imports would likely be ordered by state-owned companies.

Officials at a government-affiliated think-tank in Beijing said the price of U.S. rice is not competitive, compared with imports from South Asia, and said the move to formally permit import should be interpreted as a goodwill gesture.

China opened its rice market when it joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, but a lack of phytosanitary protocol between China and the United States effectively banned imports, according to trade group USA Rice.

Nonetheless in July, China formally imposed additional tariffs of 25 percent on U.S. rice, even though imports were not permitted at the time.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions



Global Stocks Gain After Wall Street Rally, Japan Falls-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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28 December 2018


financial markets (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)


Most global stock markets advanced Friday while Japan edged down following Wall Street's rally after a turbulent week.
KEEPING SCORE: In early trading, Germany's DAX rose 0.7 percent to 10,454.51 points and France's CAC 40 advanced 0.7 percent to 4,627.44. London's FTSE 100 added 0.1 percent to 6,655.09. On Thursday, the DAX slid 2.4 percent, the FTSE 100 gave up 1.5 percent and France's CAC 40 gave up 0.6 percent. On Wall Street, the future for the Standard & Poor's 500 index declined 0.1 percent and that for the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.3 percent.
ASIA'S DAY: The Shanghai Composite Index advanced 0.4 percent to 2,493.90 while Tokyo's Nikkei 225 shed 0.3 percent to 20,014.77. Hong Kong's Hang Seng ended up 0.1 percent at 25,504.20 and Seoul's Kospi added 0.6 percent to 2,041.04. India's Sensex gained 1 percent to 36,163.22 and benchmarks in Taiwan, New Zealand and Singapore also rose.
WALL STREET: U.S. stocks staged a last-minute turnaround that put the market on track to end the volatile week with a gain. That followed its best day in 10 years. Health care and technology companies, banks and industrial stocks accounted for much of the gains. The S&P 500 rose 0.9 percent, the Dow gained 1.1 percent and the Nasdaq composite added 0.4 percent. The downturn that began in October has intensified this month, erasing the market's 2018 gains and nudging the S&P 500 closer to its worst year since 2008. Stocks are on track for their worst December since 1931.
ANALYST'S QUOTE: The upturn might be due less to revived sentiment than to traders covering short positions at year's end in thin trading, said Vishnu Varathan of Mizuho Bank in a report. This "looks suspiciously like a dead cat bounce," said Varathan. "Rather than prematurely rejoicing over a dead bear (and return to a bull market), it may be far more sensible to worry about a dead cat (bounce) that could quickly fizzle and revert to a more prolonged price correction."
JAPANESE FACTORIES: Japan's index of industrial production fell 1.1 percent in November compared with the previous month. Shipments declined 1.4 percent. Growth is below industry expectations, reflecting "weak external demand," said Harumi Taguchi of IHS Markit in a report.
CHINA PROFITS: Profits at major Chinese industrial companies fell in November for the first time in three years amid an economic slowdown and trade tension with Washington. Profit for producers in steel, construction materials, oil, chemicals and equipment manufacturing declined 1.8 percent from a year earlier, a reverse from October's 3.6 percent gain.
ENERGY: Benchmark U.S. crude jumped $1.34 to $45.96 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract plunged $1.59 on Thursday to close at $44.61. Brent crude, used to price international oils, gained $1.35 to $54.08 per barrel in London. It fell $1.97 the previous session to $52.73.
CURRENCY: The dollar declined to 110.47 yen from Thursday's 111.01 yen. The euro advanced to $1.1458 from $1.1430.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Thursday, 27 December 2018

Nifty, Sensex May Be under Pressure, If US Market Weakens Again – Thursday closing report


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27 December 2018

Wednesday’s closing report it observed that Nifty, Sensex might rally if global markets pulled back. The major indices of the Indian stock markets were range-bound on Thursday and closed with gains over Wednesday’s close. On the NSE, there were 913 advances, 795 declines and 353 unchanged. The trends of the major indices in the course of Thursday’s trading are given in the table below:

IT (information technology) stocks gained, while the oil and gas and energy stocks edged higher on the BSE. In the past days, investor sentiments were low on concerns that US President Donald Trump would attempt to fire Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Key economic adviser Kevin Hassett's reassurances on Wednesday put this to rest. According to reports, the US president was unhappy post the US central bank hiking the short-term interest rate. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


Credit ratings agency ICRA expects the domestic two-wheeler industry's volumes to grow at 8%-10% during FY2019. According to ICRA, the expected growth rate will be supported by growing per capita income, improved farm sentiment following near normal monsoon over last three fiscal, higher MSP and farm loan waiver in select states. "The two-wheeler industry has reported a 11.1% Year over year (YOY) volume growth in April-October 2019. 

This is despite some one-off adverse events during the period increase in insurance premium across the country, floods in Kerala in August 2018 and regulatory changes in West Bengal mandating two-wheeler sale to only valid license holders in July 2018," ICRA said in a statement. "While increase in rural income would support motorcycle demand; the demand for scooters is expected to be led by rapid urbanisation, increased affordability and greater penetration through targeted product launches." Hero MotoCop shares closed at Rs3,127.00, down 1.85% on the BSE. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


Budget passenger carrier SpiceJet will launch a daily direct service on Kolkata-Lilabari-Kolkata route under the regional air connectivity -- UDAN -- scheme, the airline announced. The un-served market of Lilabari, located in Lakhimpur district of Assam, was awarded to the airline under the phase II of UDAN scheme. In addition, the airline will also start a new direct flight connecting Kolkata with Jabalpur and an additional frequency on Hyderabad-Jabalpur route. "All new flights and frequencies are scheduled to commence from January 15, 2019," the company said in a statement. The airline said that it will deploy its Bombardier Q400s on all these routes. After the addition of the Kolkata-Lilabari-Kolkata flight, SpiceJet will operate 25 flights under the UDAN scheme. SpiceJet shares closed at Rs86.60, down 1.03% on the BSE.

Automobile major Maruti Suzuki India has recalled 5,900 units of light commercial vehicle Super Carry. According to the company, it is "proactively and voluntarily" undertaking the recall campaign. "The company will inspect a possible defect in fuel filter of 5,900 Super Carry vehicles manufactured between April 26, 2018 and August 1, 2018. This also includes vehicles in which fuel filter has been replaced in field during this period," the company said in a statement issued on Wednesday. "Starting December 26, 2018, owners of the suspected vehicles will be contacted by Maruti Suzuki dealers for inspection and replacement of the faulty part free of cost." Recall campaigns are undertaken globally to rectify faults that may be potential safety defects. On Thursday, Maruti Suzuki shares closed at Rs7,505.30, down 0.86% on the BSE. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


The top gainers and top losers of the major indices are given in the table below:


The closing values of the major Asian indices are given in the table below: The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
Major Indices (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)