Saturday 8 September 2018

Friday 7 September 2018

Nifty, Sensex May Try to Push Higher – Weekly closing report-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


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07 September 2018

I had mentioned in last week’s closing report that GDP growth might propel Nifty, Sensex higher. The major indices of the Indian stock markets closed on Friday with losses over previous Friday’s close. The trends in the course of the week’s trading are given in the table below:


The major indices of the Indian stock markets suffered a correction on Monday and closed with losses over Friday’s close. On the NSE, there were 853 advances, 925 declines and 313 unchanged, after opening sharply higher on the back of healthy April-June GDP.

The indices trimmed the major gains made earlier in the day, due to weak Asian markets. Globally, Asian markets traded in the negative territory on concerns of escalations in the US-China trade war. According to analysts, buying was witnessed in consumer durables, healthcare and IT (information technology) stocks.

Global software major Wipro said it had won a USD1.5 billion (10,500 crore) 10-year deal from the US-based technology firm, Alight Solutions LLC. "We have won a 10-year engagement to provide a suite of solutions and services to the Illinois-based Alight Solutions, a leader in technology-enabled health, wealth, human resources and finance solutions," said the Bangalore-based IT major in a statement. Claiming the deal to be its largest win so far, the company said it would generate $1.5-1.6-billion revenues over the tenure.

The construction arm of L&T has won orders worth Rs2,654 crore across its businesses. The Transportation Infra business wins Rs2,095 crore order from MSRDC for 10th package of Nagpur-Mumbai Expressway. The Heavy Civil Infra business bags Rs559 crore order from MSRDC. 

Graphite India's subsidiary Graphite International BV has signed a definitive Agreement for investment of upto US$ 18.59 million in cash in General Graphene Corporation, a US-based unlisted company located in Knoxville, Tennessee, for a 46%  stake (approx.) in the company. 

The major indices of the Indian stock markets suffered a correction on Tuesday and closed with losses over Monday’s close. On the NSE, there were 414 advances, 1,351 declines and 305 unchanged.

The Reliance Infrastructure Ltd-Astaldi S.p.A.(Italy) consortium has bagged the project for the northern extension of the Rajiv Gandhi Bandra Worli Sea Link from Bandra to Versova, an official said here on Tuesday. The MSRDC had floated the tenders for the construction of the second sea link on an EPC-basis to build the Versova-Bandra Sea Link, 17.17 km-long, or three times the existing 5.6 km-long RGBWSL. RInfra EPC CEO Arun Gupta said the mega-project will further propel the company as a premier EPC company in India.

Lupin's Tarapur API manufacturing facility has completed cGMP inspection carried out by the US FDA. The inspection closed with one observation of procedural type. The inspection focused on cGMP compliance and also on the safety of Lupin's Valsartan, Losartan and Irbesartan APIs.

Budget carriers IndiGo and GoAir offered low-fare tickets for travel during September 2018 to March 2019. Under the IndiGo offer, fares would start from Rs999 and the tickets would be available from September 3 to 6, the airline said in a statement. Persistent Systems has acquired Herald Technologies Inc., an IT (information technology) services start-up in the US, for a cash consideration of US$ 5.2 million. The acquired business will strengthen Persistent's IP led offerings in the Healthcare domain and create a number of cross-sell opportunities.

The major indices of the Indian stock markets were range-bound on Wednesday and closed with losses over Tuesday’s close. On the NSE, there were 625 advances, 1,125 declines and 321 unchanged.

Centrum Financial Services Ltd, the NBFC arm of the Centrum Group, signed an agreement to acquire L&T Finance's Supply Chain Finance business. The business has a loan book of approximately Rs800 crore with a combined customer base of 800 (approx).

Goldiam International has received export orders worth Rs140 crore from its International clients for manufacturing of diamond studded designed gold jewellery. The order was to be delivered within three months.

The key Indian equity market snapped its six-day losing streak after a largely volatile trading session on Thursday. According to market observers, a late recovery in the Indian rupee which breached the 72 per dollar mark for the first time aided the market to pare its earlier losses. Besides, value buying and healthy pick-up in healthcare, oil and gas and banking stocks also lifted investors' sentiments.

Weak global cues and domestic uncertainty over foreign investment norms in the equity market pulled the Indian rupee to a new record low of 71.97 per US dollar, but it later recovered. The rupee opened at 71.45 per US dollar and settled at a record closing low of 71.75, weaker by 17 paise than its previous close of 71.58 per greenback. 

L&T Technology Services has executed a definitive agreement to acquire 100% stake in Bangalore-based Graphene Semiconductor by way of an all cash deal. Graphene had revenues of Rs66.3 crore for the year ended March 31, 2018.
TCS has successfully completed a CRM-based sales transformation program at Maxim Integrated Products, a leading global manufacturer of analog & mixed-signal integrated circuit. The solution provides a streamlined and agile digital sales process to maximize Maxim's sales velocity.

The key Indian equity indices closed in the green on Friday supported by buying activity in the auto stocks and a recovery in the rupee from its previous close. The rupee traded around 71.70 per dollar (3.50 p.m.), against the previous close of 71.99 per greenback. Buying was witnessed in the auto index, which surged by 501.93 points, followed by metal and healthcare indices.

Software major Tech Mahindra said it has entered into a partnership with deep-learning software company Avaamo to develop and deliver conversational Artificial Intelligence (AI) solutions for global enterprises. Tech Mahindra said it would evangelise Avaamo's enterprise products and build solutions around platforms in areas such as the Internet of Things (IoT), AI, and Machine Learning (ML). The collaboration will help Tech Mahindra harness newer enterprise AI technologies and serve global markets in countries like the US, Britain, the Netherlands, Germany, Sweden, Malaysia, Israel, Indonesia and the Philippines, among others. Tech Mahindra shares closed at Rs770.40, down 0.30% on the BSE.

Indian software major Infosys said it has formed a joint venture (JV) with global investment firm Temasek in Singapore to service it and its clients in the digital domain. "The JV will integrate our team with that of Temasek's Singapore subsidiary Trusted Source Pte Ltd, which delivers IT services to it and its clients," said the city-based IT major in a statement here. As per an agreement signed by the partners on Thursday night, Infosys will hold 60% in the JV and Temasek 40%. Infosys shares closed at Rs733.15, up 0.71% on the BSE.

Commercial vehicles major Ashok Leyland Ltd said it has inaugurated its electric vehicle (EV) facility in its plant at Ennore here. In a statement issued here the company said it is India's first integrated facility for design, prototyping, testing, process prototyping and solutions design. "The in-house facilities include engineering, prototyping and testing for motors, battery modules and packs and a power electronics lab. Keeping in mind the rapidly evolving and changing market and technology, it has been conceived as an in-house start-up facility in order to stay flexible and fast," the statement said. "In our 70th year, we are laying the foundation for our future. The EV Centre in Ennore will give us the edge throughout the evolution of eMobility," Vinod K Dasari, Managing Director was quoted as saying in the statement. Ashok Leyland shares closed at Rs131.75, up 1.54% on the BSE.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Major Indices (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)



Total government liabilities rise to Rs 79.8 lakh crore in Q1: Finance Ministry report -The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


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07 September 2018
India (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

Total liabilities of the government increased to Rs 79.8 lakh crore at end-June 2018 from Rs 77.98 lakh crore at end-March 2018, latest data on public debt showed Friday. 

Public debt accounted for 89.3 per cent of total outstanding liabilities at end-June 2018 with internal debt accounting for 83.0 per cent share. 

Public debt accounted for 89.3 per cent of total outstanding liabilities at end-June 2018 with internal debt accounting for 83.0 per cent share. 

Nearly 24.9 per cent of the outstanding dated securities had a residual maturity of less than five years. The holding pattern indicates a share of 42.7 per cent for commercial banks and 23.5 per cent for insurance companies by end-March 2018. 

G-Sec yields have shown a hardening trend in first quarter of the fiscal with the increase in weighted average yield of primary issuances to 7.76 per cent from 7.34 per cent since the last quarter reflecting the impact of both global and domestic developments, said the quarterly Report on Debt Management, released by the Finance Ministry. 

"The manifestation of global developments being increase in crude oil prices, rate hike by the US Federal Reserve, rising geo-political tensions while domestic developments included weak Rupee, rise in CPI, demand-supply imbalance for shorter-tenor securities and weak demand from FPIs," it said. 

During April-June period of the fiscal, the Central government issued dated securities worth Rs 1.44 lakh crore in 12 tranches as against Rs 1.68 lakh crore in the year-ago period. 

The temporary cash flow mismatches were bridged through issuances of Cash Management Bills in three tranches up to Rs 65,000 crore during the quarter. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

India, US hold discussions on ways to promote trade, investm ..-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


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07 September 2018

India US (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)


Senior officials of India and the US Friday held detailed deliberations on ways to resolve trade related issues and boost economic ties. "India - US Commercial Dialogue Intersessional meeting held. Indian delegation led by Commerce Secretary Anup Wadhawan and US side by Gilbert Kaplan, Under Secretary, USDOC," the Department of Commerce said in a tweet.

The meeting assumes significance as India has announced hike in customs duties on as many as 29 products, including pulses, iron and steel products, imported from the US as a retaliatory action against the tariff hikes by Washington.

The meeting follows a visit by Indian officials to the US last week. It was the first meeting of the two sides after India deferred its retaliatory tariffs by 45 days to September 18. US Trade Representative (USTR) for South and Central Asian Affairs Mark Linscott and Deputy USTR Jeffrey D Gerrish are likely to visit India next week to continue the talks.

India is pressing for exemption from high duty imposed by the US on certain steel and aluminium products and resumption of export benefits to certain domestic items under their Generalised System of Preferences (GSP).

As many as 3,500 Indian products from sectors such as chemicals and engineering get duty-free access to the US market under the GSP, introduced in 1976. India's exports to the US in 2017-18 stood at USD 47.9 billion, while imports were USD 26.7 billion. The trade balance is in favour of India. RR ABM ABM The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Rupee at 72 against US dollar: The Pain Might Not Be Over Yet, Says SBI -The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


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07 September 2018
 
USD vs INR (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)


The Indian rupee on Thursday breached the 72 per US dollar mark for the first time. The depreciation in Indian rupee is largely in consonance with US dollar strengthening against all currencies. Since the Indian rupee could not have been immune to such pressure, the current depreciation was long overdue and trends in Non-deliverable forwards (NDF) market suggest the pain might not be just over yet, says a research report.

In the note, State Bank of India (SBI) says, "In the hindsight, the rupee depreciation of 13% in 2018 and around 7% since June 2018 when the RBI started hiking rates is largely in consonance with the US dollar strengthening against all currencies. We analysed the movement of rupee against dollar since global financial crisis period and it is quite visible from the data that depreciation was always followed by appreciation of currency. We believe this time will be no different as currency will start appreciating once the dust settles for the currency to settle at a lower level."

The Indian rupee has now depreciated by 7% from June 2018, when the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) started hiking rates and close to 13% in 2018. "Thus, by any stretch of imagination, the depreciation in rupee has now outpaced other Asian currencies like Indonesia. We believe, beyond a certain level of depreciation, the costs could outweigh benefits. There are many components of such cost," the report says.

The lender also shares an interesting anecdote on asymmetric behaviour on the part of portfolio investors in times of depreciation and appreciation. 

Foreign portfolio investment (FPI) generally responds negatively to domestic currency depreciation over a period. This is obvious, as typical portfolio investor brings in foreign currency but invests in domestic currency and, therefore, a depreciation in domestic currency will only mean that a portfolio investor will be able to take out a lower amount of foreign currency compared to what was originally invested. Thus, it will always be the endeavour of the portfolio investors to prefer a wait and watch policy in the event of a gradual depreciation of the domestic currency. Hence, portfolio investors have a typical asymmetric behaviour as they behave contrarily to appreciation and depreciation of the domestic currency, SBI says.


"Thus, it is likely that once the rupee settles at a lower level, portfolio investors now conspicuous by their absence will return in hordes and the rupee will appreciate. This is what history of Indian foreign exchange market says and sometimes the period of appreciating rupee following a depreciating rupee could be even higher! On a lighter note, this could make both camps happy," the report added. 

Talking down the rupee as was done recently when the markets were volatile might have been counterproductive and thus the pace of depreciation picked up frantic pace in the last week or so. In this context, SBI says, the statement by the finance minister is most welcome and timely one as it has provided an immediate succour to battered market sentiments. The RBI could also chip in with a message that could be most comforting under the current circumstances, it added.

According to SBI, the largest lender in the country, there are two perceived benefits of rupee depreciation in the form of increased exports and automatic adjustment of trade deficit in policy circles. However, it says, it believes the traditional view that weak exchange rates could dramatically boost exports growth is not entirely correct over the long term as India’s export basket has changed significantly from traditional products to more mechanized engineering goods over the years, thus making them more income elastic rather than price
elastic.

Policymakers need to be mindful of the several costs of rupee depreciation, like short-term debt obligation, oil import bill, yields, effect on inflation and return of portfolio investors, the report says.

It says, "First, India’s short term debt obligations at $218 billion due on December 2018 if rolled over could add a significant cost on the Government. Second, oil import bill could go up manifold. Third, with yields increasing, this could add up government fiscal costs too. On all these counts the costs could add up to 0.7% of gross domestic product (GDP). It may be noted that the yields are already under pressure as unlike earlier years, the government borrowing programme has been evenly distributed between two halves in current fiscal."

"Fourth, as per RBI estimates, assuming a 10% depreciation, this could add upto 50 bps on inflation number. In fact, continued rupee depreciation could result in rate action by RBI in October policy, even as headline CPI will decline meaningfully to 3.6-3.7% in September. This could be thus the biggest predicament waiting to unravel," SBI says.

India’s short-term debt obligations as on December 2017 were about $217.6 billion. Assuming half of the amount either has been paid in first half of 2018 or is rolled over to 2019, the remaining repayment amount in rupee terms would be Rs7.1 lakh crore at average 2017 exchange rate of Rs65.1 per US dollar. For second half,  assuming that rupee depreciates to an average value of 71.4 per US dollar, the debt repayment amount would be Rs7.8 lakh crore, thereby implying an extra cost of Rs67,000 crore. 

Talking about oil import bill, SBI says, it assumes that the volume of India's crude oil imports would increase by a modest 3.6% (average of past five years) in 2018. 


"If we reduce the volume of oil imported in the first half of the current FY, the remaining volume of crude to be imported comes to 760 million barrels (bbl). At an average oil price of $74.24 per bbl for the remaining half, crude import bill of India in 2018 should amount to $57 billion. If the average exchange rate remained at Rs65.1 per US dollar, the crude oil import bill would have been Rs3.64 lakh crore. However, with rupee depreciating to an average of Rs71.4 per US dollar in second half of 2018 end, the import bill would increase to Rs4.03 lakh crore, implying an extra cost of around Rs35,300 crore. With crude oil averaging to $76 per bbl for the remaining half and average exchange rate at Rs73 per US dollar, the extra cost could go up to Rs45,700 crore ," the report says.

According to RBI of the Indian rupee by around 5% relative to the baseline, inflation could edge higher by around 20 basis points (bps). With rupee expected to depreciate by say around 14% this year, SBI feels that keeping everything else constant inflation could edge by 56 bps going by the RBI numbers.

According to SBI, if the rupee continues to depreciate, it may move RBI towards increasing the regulatory interest rates and it could pressurise RBI to go for more rate hikes. RBI’s successive rate hikes will have a negative impact on private final consumption expenditure (PFCE) as well as investment expenditure, thereby widening the output gap. For instance, during FY13-14, three successive rate hikes led to collapse of private consumption expenditure to 2.0% in Q3 FY14-15 from 8.6% growth in Q2 FY14-15. During Q1 FY18-19, PFCE increased by 8.6% (6-quarter high) and RBI has already hiked repo rate in two successive rate hikes. The continued rupee depreciation and given the significant costs of RBI intervention in forex market and hence the RBI apathy to take that route could result in at least one more hike, possibly frontloaded, the report added.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

World Stocks Mostly Fall On Possible US-China Tariffs-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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07 September 2018
financial markets (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)


Global stock markets mostly fell on Friday as traders mulled over the effects of possible U.S. tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese goods and looked ahead to U.S. jobs data.
KEEPING SCORE: In Europe, France's CAC 40 fell 0.3 percent to 5,230, while the FTSE 100 index of leading British shares gave up 1 percent to 7,249. Germany's DAX fell 0.3 percent to 11,927, after the country's trade surplus dipped to four-year low. U.S. indexes are set for a subdued open. Dow futures dropped 0.2 percent and the broader S&P 500's futures shed 0.1 percent.
ASIA'S DAY: Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 fell 0.8 percent to 22,307.06 and the Kospi in South Korea dropped 0.3 percent to 2,281.58. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index, which has dropped 18 percent since its peak in late January, was almost flat at 26,973.47. The Shanghai Composite index was 0.4 percent higher at 2,702.30. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 shed 0.3 percent to 6,143.80. Shares were lower in Taiwan and most of Southeast Asia.
US-CHINA TENSIONS: The Trump administration may impose tariffs of up to 25 percent on an additional $200 billion in Chinese goods, after a public comment period ended Thursday. The imports are equal to nearly 40 percent of all the goods China sold the U.S. last year. Doing so would escalate a confrontation between the world's two biggest economies and likely squeeze U.S. companies that import everything from handbags to bicycle tires. China has said that it is ready to retaliate with "necessary countermeasures" if President Donald Trump goes ahead with the tariff hike. Commerce Ministry spokesman Gao Feng said Thursday that the country is confident it can maintain "steady and healthy" economic growth. It has announced a $60 billion list of American products targeted for retaliation. The Chinese government has said it would help local and even foreign businesses in the country mitigate the effects of the trade dispute.
ANALYST'S TAKE: "The market is risk-off and pricing in the effects of new tariffs. It's a done deal as far as investors are concerned," said Francis Tan, investment strategist at UOB Private Bank. "I don't think that China will retaliate with a full-fletched devaluation of the yuan. They will turn to other non-tariff measures," he added.
DATA OUTLOOK: Investors are expecting a string of U.S. releases on Friday, such as the latest unemployment rate. Economists have forecast that employers added 189,000 jobs in August and that the unemployment rate dipped from an already-low 3.9 percent to 3.8 percent. In the coming week, the markets will also be looking out for Chinese data, including the country's year-on-year foreign direct investment and industrial output. Next week's Bank of England and European Central Bank meetings could also affect sentiment.
ENERGY: Benchmark U.S. crude added 12 cents to $67.89 a barrel. The contract dropped 1.4 percent to settle at $67.77 a barrel in New York. Brent crude, used to price international oils, gained 19 cents to $76.69 a barrel. It lost 1 percent to $76.50 a barrel in London on Thursday.
CURRENCIES: The dollar edged up to 110.85 yen from 110.83 yen. The euro strengthened to $1.1611 from $1.1625.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Thursday 6 September 2018

Nifty, Sensex May Rise if Today’s Low Holds – Thursday closing report-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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06 September 2018

I had mentioned in Wednesday’s closing report that Nifty, Sensex might continue to slide. The major indices of the Indian stock markets were range-bound on Thursday and closed with small gains over Wednesday’s close. On the NSE, there were 1,019 advances, 715 declines and 337 unchanged. The trends of the major indices in the course of Thursday’s trading are given in the table below:


The key Indian equity market snapped its six-day losing streak after a largely volatile trading session on Thursday. According to market observers, a late recovery in the Indian rupee which breached the 72 per dollar mark for the first time aided the market to pare its earlier losses. Besides, value buying and healthy pick-up in healthcare, oil and gas and banking stocks also lifted investors' sentiments.

Weak global cues and domestic uncertainty over foreign investment norms in the equity market pulled the Indian rupee to a new record low of 71.97 per US dollar, but it later recovered. The rupee opened at 71.45 per US dollar and settled at a record closing low of 71.75, weaker by 17 paise than its previous close of 71.58 per greenback. In the intra-day trade, the Indian rupee touched 71.97 per US dollar -- the lowest ever mark -- against the greenback at the Inter-Bank Foreign Exchange Market. The RBI (Reserve Bank of India) is known to enter the markets via intermediaries to either sell or buy US dollars to keep the rupee in a stable orbit.

Salt-to-software conglomerate Tata is India's most "consumer-focussed" brand, said a TRA Research report released on Wednesday. FMCG (fast moving consumer goods) major Patanjali, promoted by yoga guru Ramdev, has been ranked 24th in the list of 500 brands, it said. The study measures consumers' keenness to buy a brand's products. The survey was conducted among 6,000 consumer influencers across 16 cities, TRA Research said. 'Closely following (Tata), at second rank is Bajaj, with just a 12% gap from the leader. At third rank in the list is Nike," the report said. Dell was ranked fourth and Apple fifth in the list of "India's Most Consumer-Focussed Brands 2018". Tata Chemicals shares closed at Rs743.00, up 0.34% on the BSE.

State-run Bharat Electronics Ltd (BEL) said it has bagged an order worth Rs9,200 crore for supply of seven Long Range Surface-to-Air Missile (LRSAM) systems to Mazagon Dock and Garden Reach Shipbuilders and Engineers. The contract takes BEL's orderbook to over Rs50,000 crore, the company said in a statement here. "The company has entered into contracts worth about 9,200 crore with Mazagon Dock Ltd (MDL) and Garden Reach Shipbuilders and Engineers (GRSE) to supply LRSAM systems to be fitted onboard seven ships to be built by these two shipbuilders," it said. According to the company, this is the highest-ever single value order it has bagged so far. Bharat Electronics shares closed at Rs91.30, down 3.39% on the BSE.

L&T Technology Services has executed a definitive agreement to acquire 100% stake in Bangalore-based Graphene Semiconductor by way of an all cash deal. Graphene had revenues of Rs66.3 crore for the year ended March 31, 2018. The company’s shares closed at Rs1,744.80, up 0.63% on the NSE.

TCS has successfully completed a CRM-based sales transformation program at Maxim Integrated Products, a leading global manufacturer of analog & mixed-signal integrated circuit. The solution provides a streamlined and agile digital sales process to maximize Maxim's sales velocity. The company’s shares closed at Rs2,074.50, down 0.23% on the NSE.

Aurobindo Pharma USA Inc, has entered into an agreement to acquire commercial operations and three manufacturing facilities in USA from Sandoz Inc., USA, a Novartis Division, for a cash consideration of US$ 0.9 billion (approx. Rs6,439.50 crore). Aurobindo Pharma shares closed at Rs761.95, up 9.33% on the NSE.

Cadila Healthcare - Zydus receives final approval from the USFDA (US Food & Drug Administration) for Acyclovir Sodium Injection, an equivalent drug to US RLD - Zovirax. Acyclovir is an antiviral drug used to treat severe infections caused by herpes viruses. Cadila Healthcare shares closed at Rs424.35, up 5.57% on the NSE.

The top gainers and top losers of the major indices are given in the table below:


The closing values of the major Asian indices are given in the table below:The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
Major Indices (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)