Friday, 16 March 2018

Nifty, Sensex in a Downward Spiral – Weekly closing report-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


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16 March  2018

 I had mentioned in last Friday’s closing report that Nifty, Sensex might try to rally. The major indices of the Indian stock markets were volatile during the week and closed on Friday with small losses over last Friday’s close. The trends of the major indices in the course of the week’s trading are given below: The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
 
Weekly Indices (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)


Value buying by investors, along with positive global cues, pushed the BSE Sensex index to over 600 points and the Nifty50 of the National Stock Exchange (NSE) by almost 200 points on Monday. According to market observers, the sharp upward rally of the key indices came on the back of broad-based buying in sectors like FMCG (fast moving consumer goods), auto, IT (information technology,) banking, metals and oil and gas. Index heavyweights like Bharti Airtel, ITC, NTPC, Tata Motors and Hero MotoCorp were the top gainers on the BSE. Top gainers on the NSE were HCL, ITC and Infosys, while on the declines were Coal India, State Bank of India and Aurobindo Pharma. On the NSE, there were 856 advances, 698 declines and 70 unchanged.  

Automobile manufacturer Eicher Motors on Monday said the company has decided to shut its joint venture -- Eicher Polaris Private Ltd (EPPL) -- with US-based Polaris Industries Inc. The decision was taken in a meeting held last week on Friday (March 9), Eicher Motors said. "The initial interest (among customers) could not be sustained, and subsequent sales performance was significantly slower than the company's expectations," it said in a regulatory filing to the BSE

The Rajya Sabha on Monday failed to conduct any business due to a continued standoff between the government and several other parties over a range of issues including special status for Andhra Pradesh, the PNB fraud and the sealing drive in Delhi. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

A sudden sell-off in stocks of IT (information technology) majors like Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) and Infosys pulled the BSE Sensex index lower on Tuesday. According to market observers, TCS scrip plunged over 5% on announcements of block deals on both the BSE and National Stock Exchange (NSE). On Monday, Tata Sons had sold $1.25 billion of its stake in the company.
Earlier on Tuesday, macro-economic data, along with buying in banking, consumer durables, oil and gas and healthcare stocks had lifted the key Indian equity indices. The BSE Sensex reclaimed the 34,000-mark in the course. On the NSE, there were 1,062 advances, 452 declines and 63 unchanged.

Bharti Airtel on Tuesday said Singapore Telecommunications Ltd (Singtel) has invested Rs2,649 crore in Bharti Telecom, the promoter company of Airtel. As per the deal, shares have been allotted to Singapore International Investments Private Ltd, an affiliate of Singtel, Bharti Airtel said in regulatory filing to the BSE. This transaction concludes the investment process that Bharti Airtel had announced on February 5. With this investment, "Singtel's total stake (along with its affiliates) in Bharti Telecom has increased to 48.90%," the filing said, adding that, Bharti Enterprises continues to hold over 50% stake in the company. 

Weak cues from the Asian markets, as well as selling pressure in banking, oil and gas, and auto stocks, pulled the key Indian equity indices lower during the mid-afternoon trade session on Wednesday. Market observers said the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) move to discontinue the system of issuing Letters of Undertaking (LoUs) by banks for availing trade credits for imports into India with immediate effect eroded investors' risk-taking appetite.

Top gainers on the NSE were Tech Mahindra, UltraTech Cement and Ambuja Cement, while on the declines were Infratel, Bharti Airtel and State Bank of India.
Key Indian equity indices, which traded in the negative territory during the day pared some losses to close Wednesday's trade on a flat-to-negative note. On the NSE, there were 876 advances, 829 declines and 315 unchanged. Private lender Yes Bank announced it has acquired more than 17% share in Fortis Healthcare, making the bank the largest shareholder in the healthcare major. In a stock exchange filing, Yes Bank said the 17.31% equity in Fortis has been acquired in lieu of the default in loan repayment by the promoters of the healthcare company. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The major indices of the Indian stock markets were volatile on Thursday and closed with small losses over Wednesday’s close. On the NSE, there were 964 advances, 540 declines and 65 unchanged. The market indices have not been able to break out higher and instead have been under tremendous pressure. It is like that the market would head lower with Nifty heading towards 10,000 we had said on Thursday. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

On Friday, a huge sell-off across all sectors -- led by oil and gas, metals, auto and banking stocks -- dragged the Indian equity markets further into the negative territory during Friday's afternoon session, with the BSE Sensex shedding over 500 points. On the NSE, there were 563 advances, 1,162 declines and 293 unchanged. The correction in the major indices at the time of close of trading on Friday was over 1.5% over Thursday’s close. Tata Motors, Adani Ports, NTPC, ONGC and ITC were the top drags on the BSE.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Credit cost to rise as LoUs issuance discontinued: SBI Ecowrap-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


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16 March  2018
 
SBI(The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)


The RBI's decision to discontinue the Letters of Undertaking (LoUs) or Letters of Comfort (LoC) might increase the credit cost for imports as it will lead to a shift towards "other off-balance sheet" products, said a State Bank of India (SBI) report on Friday. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
According to SBI Ecowrap report, the shift to "other off-balance sheet" products will be "administratively time consuming" and in the short-term might impact export funding as well. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
On March 13, RBI decided to discontinue the system in the wake of the Rs 12,600 crore fraud at the state-run Punjab National Bank (PNB).
"Banning LoUs/LoCs might lead to shifting to other off balance sheet products -- LCs, Bank Guarantees, other fund based facilities or on to balance sheet," the SBI Ecowrap report said.
"We, however, believe the shift to other off balance sheet products if occurs, will be administratively time consuming. However capital charge may vary for different products leading to changes in capital requirements in either direction depending on the product used and associated risk."
Earlier, banks were permitted to issue guarantee/LoU/LoC in favour of overseas supplier, bank or financial institution up to $20 million per import transaction under the automatic route for a maximum period up to one year in case of import of non-capital goods. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
As per the latest available RBI data, guarantees given on behalf of constituents outside India stood at Rs 1.95 lakh crore as on March 31, 2017.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Lok Sabha passes bill to increase employees' gratuity limit-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


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16 March  2018
 
Gratuity(The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)


 The Supreme Court on Thursday ordered real estate major Amrapali Group and its home buyers to meet on Saturday and arrive at a consensus on the status of its various housing projects nearing completion.

A bench of Justice Arun Mishra and Justice U.U. Lalit said the meeting will be held on March 17 at 11 a.m. at the Supreme Court consultation room and, thereafter, a joint statement on the development of the meeting would be filed before the court.

There was an urgent need for consensus between the Amrapali Group and home buyers to identify projects that were nearing completion, mid-way and those nowhere near completion, said the bench, adding that it wants that home buyers get their flats at the earliest and refund of money is not the solution to the problem. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

On February 22, the court had directed the real estate group to finish the remaining work on 19 towers in its Leisure Valley housing project in Greater Noida. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The Amrapali Group had earlier submitted a comprehensive proposal on how it planned to deliver 42,000 flats to its buyers in various projects.

Earlier, the Group, facing insolvency proceedings initiated by the creditor bank for not repaying the loans, had told the court that it was not in a position to complete the projects and hand over possession of flats to over 42,000 home-buyers in a time-bound manner, and the properties were needed to be developed with the help of co-developers. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The Amrapali Group has liabilities of about Rs 3,000 crore towards authorities and owes over Rs 1,000 crore to about 10 banks, and it needs about Rs 3,000 crore to complete its ongoing projects.

The apex court has been hearing a batch of pleas filed by home buyers who have sought quashing of the National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT) order admitting insolvency proceedings against Amrapali Group.

Buyers belong to the low and middle-income groups and must be granted equal protection as other stakeholders -- financial and operational creditors, the home buyers' plea had said.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

India’s effort to be a global financial hub has lost its momentum: Ashok Chawla -The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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16 March  2018
 
Financial centre (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)
 As the balance of power in the global economy shifts east and the financial world puts greater focus on Asia, top cities in this part are vying for a place of pride and challenging traditional hubs like London, which is likely to lose its standing following the politico-economic rebalancing of Brexit. 

Within Asia, Hong Kong has lost much of its competitive edge over the years as Singapore beat it in the race. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

But it remains a long shot for India’s financial capital Mumbai, which has over the years dreamt big and done too little to even be in the recknoning. 

“We lost the momentum in the last 9-10 years because of the global financial crisis. Political factors, too, caused a lot of volatility,” Ashok Chawla, NSE Chairman and former finance secretary, told an elite gathering at the ETMarkets Global Summit in Mumbai on Thursday.
The National Stock Exchange (NSE) last month caused a ripple in the global financial markets when it announced withdrawal of licence for Nifty futures trading on the Singapore Stock Exchange. Overseas portfolio investors use these future contracts to hedge their exposure to the Indian market. 

GIFT City, which aspires to take on Asian financial hubs from Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s home city Ahmedabad, is seeking to draw these FII money by launching a proxy contract on its platform. 

India, Asia’s third-largest economy, is fast gaining clout in the global economic order and is being projected to become the world’s fifth-largest economy in a few years. A large young population, booming domestic consumption, a fast-expanding economy and a relatively steady and accommodating policy environment are making multinationals and financial giants to draw up big plans for this market. 
The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

“Any country or city that aspires to be a global financial centre must be a robust economy,” says Chawla. “Be it London, Frankfurt or Tokyo, these financial hubs were all anchored in strong economies. We are moving in that direction, but are not there yet,” he said. 

Meanwhile in Mumbai, the Maharashtra government is chalking out plans to make another big push to earn itself the pride of place. 
Chawla is hopeful that by 2030, India and China would be important centres in terms their return on investment and shares of global savings. 

By 2030, India is projected to contribute 7 per cent of global savings, from 3-4 per cent at present. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

“Our laws, regulations and institutions must be of global standards; this is the second pre-requisite to be a global financial hub. We often falter on this count. Our institutions or economic architecture is still not of global standards,” he pointed out. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

All instruments need to be liquid, and they need to have more and more foreign participation, Chawla insisted. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Later, talking to ETMarkets.com on the sidelines of the event, Chawla said he is optimistic that the NSE will be able to launch its IPO in FY19. He noted that the matter related to the co-location case has still not been settled. “Once that is settled, we are geared up to go for the IPO,” he added. 

Asked if there would be some proxy contracts to replace SGX Nifty futures trading on the Singapore Stock Exchange (SGX), the NSE chairman said discussions were on between the NSE management and the Singapore authorities and it would be premature to give any indication at this stage. 

On NSE’s overseas ambitions, the NSE chairman said the exchange is competent and equipped to move to other markets. "It is exploring viable propositions elsewhere. Generally, they come through a transparent bidding process. Whenever we feel it is appropriate, we will go for it,” Chawla said. 
The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

US Stocks Gain As Banks, Tech Companies And Retailers Rise-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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16 March  2018


Wall stree financial markets (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)
U.S. stocks are edging higher Friday morning as technology companies and banks make gains. While retailers are mostly higher, jewelry chain Tiffany and Hibbett Sports are both falling after investors were disappointed with their quarterly reports and forecasts. The S&P 500 has slipped for four days in a row and is down 1 percent this week. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
KEEPING SCORE: The S&P 500 index gained 9 points, or 0.3 percent, to 2,756 as of 10 a.m. Eastern time. The Dow Jones industrial average added 79 points, or 0.3 percent, to 24,953. The Nasdaq composite climbed 22 points, or 0.3 percent, to 7,503. The Russell 2000 index of smaller-company stocks was unchanged at 1,576. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
LOOKING GOOD: Ulta Beauty climbed $12.42, or 6 percent, to $218.56 after the beauty products retailer's fourth quarter report. Software maker Adobe reported results that beat analysts' forecasts and rose $9.24, or 4.2 percent, to $228.15.
GEM STONED: Tiffany dropped $6.95, or 6.8 percent, to $95.76 after it reported weaker sales than analysts expected. Its forecast for the current year was also below what investors were looking for. Also sinking was Hibbett Sports, which posted a smaller profit than analysts had hoped for and also forecast disappointing sales. The stock gave up $2.37, or 10.7 percent, to $20.13.
OVERSTOCK SINKS: Online discount retailer Overstock.com said profit margins have fallen hard because of competition with Wayfair, and CEO Patrick Byrne said the company will "respond in kind," meaning Overstock will try to ramp up its growth and will be willing to lose money to achieve that goal. The stock dropped $4.55, or 9.4 percent, to $43.65 while Wayfair lost $5.06, or 6 percent, to $78.90. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
INDICATORS: The Federal Reserve said factory output continued to rise as companies in the U.S. produced more cars, computers and furniture. It reported that manufacturing output rose 1.2 percent in February after three months of weak results. Factory output has increased 2.5 percent over the last year.
The Commerce Department said homebuilders started work on fewer apartment buildings in February, and that caused overall housing starts to drop 7 percent. Builders have shifted their efforts to single-family homes recently as the economy has improved. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
OIL: Benchmark U.S. crude was little changed at $61.20 a barrel in New York. Brent crude, used to price international oils, lost 10 cents to $65 a barrel in London. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
BONDS: Bond prices fell. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose to 2.85 percent from 2.83 percent. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
CURRENCIES: The dollar declined to 106.04 yen from 106.24 yen. The euro fell to $1.2286 from $1.2303. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
OVERSEAS: The German DAX, Britain's FTSE and the CAC 40 in France all edge up 0.1 percent. Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 0.6 percent while South Korea's Kospi edged 0.1 percent higher and Hong Kong's Hang Seng index dipped 0.1 percent..The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Thursday, 15 March 2018

Nifty, Sensex Precariously Poised – Thursday closing report-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


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15 March  2018

I had mentioned in Wednesday’s closing report that Nifty, Sensex might rally. The major indices of the Indian stock markets were volatile on Thursday and closed with small losses over Wednesday’s close. On the NSE, there were 964 advances, 540 declines and 65 unchanged. The trends of the major indices in the course of Thursday’s trading are given in the table below: The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
 
Major Indices (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)


The market indices have not been able to break out higher and instead have been under tremendous pressure. It is like that the market would head lower with Nifty heading towards 10,000. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The Finance Ministry has been asked to lower the existing export duty on sugar to zero in the wake of bumper domestic production this year, Union Food Minister Ram Vilas Paswan said on Thursday. We have sent our recommendations to the Finance Ministry three weeks ago for reducing duty," Paswan told reporters here. At present, there is 20% duty on export of sugar. According to the industry body Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA), sugar production of 295 lakh tonnes is expected this year, which will be over 92 lakh tonnes more than last year. EID Parry India shares closed at Rs298.55, up 1.91% on the NSE.

Global software major Infosys on Thursday said it will soon open a technology and innovation hub in the US state of Connecticut and hire about 1,000 American workers by 2022. The hiring of Americans is seen as a fall-out of US President Donald Trump's executive order on H1-B visas in April 2017, as clients in North America contribute about 60% of the $10.3-billion company's software export revenue annually. Infosys shares closed at Rs1,182.50, up 0.09% on the NSE.

Private airline Jet Airways said it will introduce 144 new weekly flights in the first phase of its upcoming summer schedule. "As part of the new schedule, Jet Airways will strengthen connectivity between the country's capital and the Northeastern region via a bouquet of non-stop services including thrice a week flights to Aizawl and Jorhat and four times a week flights to Silchar from Delhi," it said in a statement. The carrier would also begin a daily, non-stop service between Mumbai and Tiruchirappalli, Tamil Nadu, and a new direct service between Tiruchirappalli and Delhi. Among other destinations, Jet Airways will also connect Patna with non-stop flights to Mumbai, it said. Jet Airways India shares closed at Rs721.90, up 0.97% on the NSE.

The US dollar traded mixed against other major currencies as investors were sifting through the latest economic data from the country. Advance estimates of US retail and food services sales for February 2018 came in at $492 billion, a decrease of 0.1% from the previous month, missing market consensus of a 0.4% gain, the Commerce Department said on Wednesday. "Retail sales continue to disappoint, especially the biggest ticket auto and furniture components. GDP estimates will be revised down again," said Chris Low, chief economist at FTN Financial, in a note. Meanwhile, the Producer Price Index for final demand advanced 0.2% in February, seasonally adjusted, in line with market estimates, the US Labour Department reported. On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index increased 2.8% for the 12 months ended in February. There are many common factors between the trends in the US dollar and the Foreign institutional investors’ net investment in emerging markets like India and there may be a small pull-out from India, if these trends continue.

The top gainers and top losers of the major indices are given in the table below: The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
 
Top Gainer (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)


The closing values of the major Asian indices are given in the table below: The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Asian Indices (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)



February trade deficit narrows to $12 billion, exports show 4.5% growth -The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


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15 March  2018
 
Trade Deficit (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)


India's trade deficit for February narrowed to $12 billion compared to $16.3 billion in the previous month. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Imports for the month of February stood at 37.8 billion dollars, up 10.4% whereas exports for the same month stood at $25.8 billion rising 4.5%. 

The rise in imports was led by higher crude oil prices, data from the commerce ministry said. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Total imports from April to February stood at $416.8 billion, showing a rise of 21% compared to same period last year. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Total exports for the April-February period stood at $273.73 billion showing a rise of 11% on year. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

India's trade deficit touched a nearly 56-month-high in January sparked by a rise in import of petroleum, chemicals, silver, pearls and machine tools. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


RBI may start raising interest rates next year, says Fitch-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


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15 March  2018
 
RBI (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to start raising interest rates next year as growth gains further traction amidst high inflationary pressures, says a research report. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

In its latest Global Economic Outlook (GEO) report, Fitch Ratings says, "Indian economy continued its bounce-back in the final quarter of 2017, growing 7.2%. The influence of one-off, policy-related factors, which had been dragging down growth, has now waned. The money supply recovered to its pre-demonetisation level in mid-2017 and is now increasing steadily, similar to the previous trend. Meanwhile, disruptions related to the rollout of the goods and services tax in July 2017 have gradually diminished.”


According to the ratings agency, inflation has increased quite sharply in recent months, rising from a 2017 mid-year low of 1.5% to 5.2% last December before easing back slightly to 4.4% in February 2018. Accelerating food prices were the main cause of the pick-up in headline inflation. By contrast, fuel price increases have been contained by the government’s decision to roll back excise duties to keep pump prices stable in the face of rising oil prices. We expect inflation to hover a bit below 5% in 2018 and 2019, in the upper band of the Reserve Bank’s target, Fitch added. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


The budget for FY2018-19, unveiled in February, envisages a slower pace of fiscal consolidation and therefore should support the near-term growth outlook, Fitch says, adding, "It contains measures that will benefit low-income earners such as a minimum price support and free health insurance and support rural demand. The government also plans to ramp up infrastructure outlays, in particular by state-owned enterprises. Those policies come on top of a substantial road construction plans and a bank recapitalisation plan announced late last year, which should also provide some support to growth in the medium term."

"Minimum support price (MSP) scheme for agricultural products and increased customs duties on certain products like electronics, textiles and auto parts will boost prices against a backdrop of accelerating growth," Fitch added.

According to Fitch's GEO, world economy is experiencing boom-like growth conditions and central banks are becoming less cautious as inflation risks rise. The US, Eurozone and China are all likely to grow well above trend in 2018 and global economic growth is set to remain above 3% for three consecutive years until 2019, a performance not achieved since the mid-2000s. 


"The acceleration in private investment, pro-cyclical US fiscal easing and global monetary policies that are still very loose are all boosting growth in the advanced economies, while high commodity prices and the weakening of the dollar have underpinned the emerging market recovery. China is gently touching the brakes but is still prioritising high growth in the near term," Brian Coulton, Chief Economist at Fitch, concluded.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions