Friday 18 May 2018

Nifty, Sensex under Pressure – Weekly closing report-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


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18 May 2018

had mentioned in last week’s closing report that Nifty, Sensex were on an uptrend. The major indices of the Indian stock markets suffered a sharp correction during the week and closed on Friday with significant weekly losses over last Friday’s close. The trends of the major indices in the course of the week’s trading are given in the table below:



The major indices of the Indian stock markets were range-bound on Monday and ended flat over Friday’s close. On the NSE, there were 490 advances, 1,252 declines and 313 unchanged.

Higher inflation data and caution ahead of Karnataka election results kept the key Indian equity markets subdued on Monday. India's wholesale inflation rate rose to 3.18% in April from 2.47% in the previous month, official data showed here on Monday. According to market observers, selling was witnessed in consumer durables, auto and capital goods stocks.

The CBI (Central Bureau of Investigation) on Monday filed a chargesheet against some former and current bank officials and several others in the over Rs13,000 crore Punjab National Bank (PNB) fraud case allegedly perpetrated by diamantaire Nirav Modi and his uncle Mehul Choksi.

The major indices of the Indian stock markets were volatile on Tuesday ended flat over Monday’s close. On the NSE, there were 580 advances, 1,117 declines and 349 unchanged.

The key Indian equity indices erased all their early gains and were trading in the red zone on Tuesday afternoon. But, by the close of trading, the major indices recovered to end flat. Expectations of a BJP victory in the Karnataka assembly election had lifted the key Indian equity indices on Tuesday morning. But when Congress and Jana Dal (Secular) got together to form a coalition and stake claim to form the government, stocks fell.

The major indices of the Indian stock markets suffered a correction on Wednesday and closed with losses over Tuesday’s close. On the NSE, there were 632 advances, 1,078 declines and 339 unchanged.

Uncertainty over government-formation in Karnataka, along with weak global cues, suppressed the key Indian equity indices on Wednesday. No party achieved a clear majority in the election results announced on Tuesday, leading to uncertainty over the formation of the next government. According to market analysts, selling pressure was witnessed in oil and gas and banking stocks.

The CBI on Wednesday filed a second chargesheet in the Punjab National Bank (PNB) fraud case against diamond merchant Mehul Choksi and his Gitanjali Group's companies. The chargesheet was filed in a special CBI court in Mumbai, an official said. So far, 15 people have been arrested while Modi and Choksi are on the run.

Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) said it has added more than 200 new employees in the US state of Arkansas, as part of its deal with insurer Transamerica.

Britannia Industries Ltd., India's leading food company, reported a 25% increase in its consolidated net profit to Rs263.16 crore in the quarter ended March 31, 2018 as compared to Rs210.91 crore in the year-ago period. On a comparable basis, its revenue from sale of goods in the quarter under review, stood at Rs2,510 crore, up by 13% from Rs2,230 crore in the corresponding period the previous year. The biscuit maker reported a 14% rise in its net profit for 2017-18 to Rs1,004 crore. While the growth in the dairy business has been subdued due to its focus on driving value-added products and reducing its play in the less profitable commoditised products, profitability has improved considerably.

The major indices of the Indian stock markets closed with losses on Thursday over Wednesday’s close. On the NSE, there were 906 advances, 809 declines and 330 unchanged.

Aditya Birla Group company Hindalco Industries reported a 25% fall in its standalone net profit for the quarter ended in March. In a regulatory filing to the BSE, the company said its standalone net profit declined to Rs376.97 crore during the fourth quarter of 2017-18, against Rs502.52 crore reported in the corresponding period of 2016-17. The total standalone income of the company for the quarter under review stood at Rs11,886.02 crore, down 0.7% lower than Rs11,969.66 crore earned in the same quarter of financial year 2017. For the financial year 2018, the company reported a fall of 7.73% in its standalone net profit at Rs1,436.49 crore. The board of directors have recommended dividend of 120% or Rs1.20 per equity share of face value of Re1 each for the financial year ended on March 31, the company said.

The major indices of the Indian stock markets suffered a correction on Friday and closed with losses over Thursday’s close. On the NSE, there were 478 advances, 1,243 declines and 326 unchanged.

The key Indian equity indices traded in the red on Friday due to weak global cues including persistent rise in crude oil prices along with selling in capital goods, banking and auto stocks. Sensex and Nifty 50 declined for a fourth straight session on Friday, following mixed sentiment in global stock markets, pointed out market analysts.

Air conditioners maker Voltas Ltd reported a 3% fall in its consolidated net profit to Rs194.19 crore in the quarter ended March 31, 2018 as compared to Rs200.47 crore in the corresponding period last year. Total income for the quarter was at Rs2,092 crore as against to Rs2,098 crore in the corresponding period last year. The company said its consolidated total income for the year ended March 31, 2018 was higher by 5%, at Rs6,602 crore as compared to Rs6,307 crore last year, owing to improved efficiencies across businesses. The firm reported its net profit was also higher by 11%, at Rs578 crore as compared to Rs520 crore last year. The board of directors of the company has recommended dividend of Rs4 per share. The company’s shares closed at Rs552.75, down 5.22% on the NSE, on Friday.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

 
Major Indices (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)




Monsoon to hit Kerala on May 29: IMD-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


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18 May 2018
 
Monsoon (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)


Monsoon rains are set to arrive in India, with Kerala receiving the first showers on May 29, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Friday.

India is set to get a normal monsoon this year, with average rainfall likely to be 97 per cent -- essential for the economy.

The southwest monsoon will mark the beginning of the rainy season. As it progresses northward, the heat marred region will experience relief from scorching summer, Met said.

"The southwest monsoon is expected to set in over Kerala on May 29 with a model error of plus-minus four days," IMD said.

In 2017, the average seasonal rainfall over northwest India was 95 per cent, in central India 106 per cent, in southern peninsula 92 per cent and in northeast India 89 per cent.

Over 50 percent of the Indian population is dependent on agriculture and allied sectors. The maximum area under cultivation depends on rain.

Earlier in April, IMD said that India was set to get a normal monsoon this year, with average rainfall likely to be 97 per cent. The prediction stands at a moderate error estimated of plus-minus 5 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA).

A figure between 96 to 104 percent is considered normal monsoon. Monsoon season normally extends from June 1 to September 30.

In 2017, India got the first showers through the southwest monsoon on May 30. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Rise in crude prices poses risk to India's current account deficit -The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


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18 May 2018
 
Crude oil  (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)


Crude oil prices may rise further in the coming months, following which India's current account deficit will be around 2.4 per cent in 2018-19, says a Goldman Sachs report.

According to the global financial services major, the rise in international crude prices poses risks to India's current account deficit.

"Our commodities team expects oil prices to continue to rise over the course of this summer, before moderating slightly at the end of the year. We recently increased our 2018-19 current account deficit (CAD)forecast to 2.4 per cent of GDP (from 2.1 per cent of GDP earlier)," Goldman Sachs said in a research note.

CAD widened to 2 per cent or $13.5 billion in the October-December quarter of 2017, up from 1.4 per cent, or $8 billion, in the corresponding period a year ago.

Globally, brent broke through the $80 a barrel mark yesterday for the first time since November 2014.

"The recent spike in oil prices following the withdrawal of the US from the Iran nuclear deal poses additional upside risks to our headline inflation forecast. We estimate that a 10 per cent increase in crude oil prices leads headline inflation to rise by 10 basis points," the report noted.

Goldman Sachs forecasts 2018-19 headline CPI inflation to average 5.3 per cent.

On RBI's policy stance, the report said, a more hawkish stance by the central bank is likely following a weaker currency (the rupee has depreciated by 6.6 per cent against the US dollar year-to-date) and concerns over a rising current account and fiscal deficit.

The Reserve Bank will announce its second bi-monthly monetary policy on June 6.

"We expect RBI to keep policy rates on hold at its meeting on June 4-6, but shift to a hawkish tone," it noted.

The first bi-monthly monetary policy meeting of 2018-19 was held on April 4-5 and the panel had decided to maintain status quo on the interest rate citing inflationary concerns.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Inflation to edge higher; May CPI likely around 4.6-4.7% -The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


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18 May 2018
 
CPI (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)


Even as monsoon is predicted to be normal this year, its uneven distribution could spike food prices, and inflation is likely to edge further, says a report. 

According to Dun & Bradstreet, rising fuel prices in India, which touched an all-time high, is likely to feed in to other segments and keep the rate of inflation higher. 
D&B expects CPI inflation to be in the range of 4.6-4.7 per cent and WPI inflation around 3.6-3.8 per cent this month. 

"The assumption of a normal monsoon has been one of the primary factors considered for improvement in demand in the current year. 

"However, spatial distribution of rainfall needs to be monitored carefully before setting in firm expectations as uneven distribution of rainfall could flare up food inflation," said Arun Singh, Lead Economist D&B India. 

Moreover, factors like geopolitical risks, escalating tensions in global trade, volatility in international crude oil prices and sharp depreciation in rupee underline the upside risk to inflation. 

"Domestically, we look forward for the government to fulfil its commitment to revive investments, execute infrastructure projects and continue the policy momentum," Singh said. 

The report further said the consistent growth clocked by the capital and infrastructure goods sector is likely to support the IIP growth rates going ahead. 

D&B expects Index of Industrial Production (IIP) to have grown by 6.5-7.5 per cent during April this year. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

World Stocks Mixed Amid Raft Of Corporate Earnings-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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18 May 2018


South korea financial markets (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

Global stock markets were mixed on Friday as U.S. and Chinese officials held a new round of talks seeking to avert a trade war between the world's two largest economies.

KEEPING SCORE: Britain's FTSE 100 fell 0.2 percent to 7,773 a day after closing at a record high, while France's CAC 40 was flat at 5,623. Germany's DAX fell 0.1 percent to 13,105. Futures augured small gains on Wall Street with S&P futures up 0.1 percent and Dow futures up 0.3 percent.

ASIA'S DAY: Asian stock markets finished mostly higher. Japan's Nikkei 225 added 0.4 percent to 22,930.36 and South Korea's Kospi index rose 0.5 percent to 2,460.65. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index advanced 0.3 percent to 31,047.91. The Shanghai Composite Index jumped 1.2 percent to 3,193.30. But Australia's S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.1 percent to 6,087.40. Stocks were flat in Taiwan and were mixed in Southeast Asia.
ANALYST'S TAKE: "A lack of data lies ahead of this Friday, leaving the U.S.-China trade developments the key item to occupy the market's attention into the end of the week," said Jingyi Pan, a market strategist at IG in Singapore. "This all leaves risk assets with little guide of a direction."

TRADE TALKS: The Trump administration has proposed tariffs on up to $150 billion in Chinese products to punish Beijing for forcing American companies to turn over technology in exchange for access to the Chinese market. China has countered by targeting $50 billion in U.S. products. Neither country has imposed the tariffs. While fielding questions from reporters Thursday afternoon, Trump suggested the talks may not end up averting a trade war with China: "Will that be successful? I tend to doubt it," Trump said. On Friday, China announced it was dropping anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigations into imported U.S. sorghum, saying they were not in the public interest.

ITALIAN JITTERS: Stocks and bonds in Italy were down amid concerns about the potential program of a new populist government. The two rival populist parties are thrashing out a program and the early drafts reportedly included, among other things, measures to quickly ramp up government spending. That would potentially add to the already huge debt pile of the eurozone's third-largest economy. Italy's stock index was down 1.2 percent and the 10-year bond yield was up 0.08 percentage points to 2.19 percent.

OIL: Benchmark U.S. crude oil rose 3 cents to $71.52 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract finished flat at $71.49 per barrel in the previous session. Brent crude, used to price international oil, gained 29 cents to $79.59 per barrel in London. It closed at $79.30 a barrel in the previous day, up 2 cents, after briefly touching above $80 a barrel, its highest level since November 2014.

CURRENCIES: The dollar rose to 110.98 yen from 110.76 yen. The euro fell to $1.1785 from $1.1795.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Thursday 17 May 2018

Nifty, Sensex Have Turned Weak – Thursday closing report-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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17 May 2018

had mentioned in Wednesday’s closing report that Nifty, Sensex might head lower if Wednesday’s lows break. The major indices of the Indian stock markets closed with losses on Thursday over Wednesday’s close. On the NSE, there were 906 advances, 809 declines and 330 unchanged. The trends of the major indices in the course of Thursday’s trading are given in the table below: The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Reliance Power has divested its entire holding in Jharkhand Integrated Power Limited (JIPL) to Jharkhand Urja Vikas Nigam Ltd for Rs112.64 crore, a regulatory filing by the company said here. "The company has transferred its entire holding of 1,49,900 equity shares of Rs10 each, aggregating to Rs14,99,000/- held in Jharkhand Integrated Power Limited, a special purpose vehicle created for development of Tilaiya UMPP, to Jharkhand Urja Vikas Nigam Limited, the lead procurer, acting on behalf of procurers of Tilaiya UMPP," the regulatory filing said. According to sources, Reliance Power also got the bank guarantees of Rs600 crore released from the procurers. Reliance Power had announced the termination of power purchase agreement (PPA) of its 3,960 MW Tilaiya Ultra Mega Power Project (UMPP) in Hazaribagh district, in Jharkhand in April 2015. Based on tariff-based bidding managed by Power Finance Corporation (PFC), Reliance Power was awarded the Tilaiya UMPP in February 2009. JIPL, the Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) for implementing the project, was handed over to Reliance Power by PFC in August 2009. JIPL had signed a PPA with 18 power off-takers in 10 states for 25 years. Reliance Power shares closed at Rs35.60, up 6.91% on the NSE. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Birla Corporation Ltd, the flagship company of MP Birla Group, reported a 30% increase in its consolidated net profit to Rs131.12 crore in the quarter ended March 31, 2018, as compared to Rs100.89 crore in the year-ago period. Its income from operations during the quarter was at Rs1,650.6 crore, up 16% from Rs1,420.1 crore in the corresponding period last year. The cement maker said its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) for the quarter were Rs284.1 crore, up 5% from Rs269.7 in the corresponding period of previous year. It said its cement sales for the March quarter stood at 34.1 lakh tonne, compared to 32.8 lakh tonne in same period of previous year, reflecting an increase of 4%. Its board of directors proposed a dividend of Rs6.50 per share and the total outgo on account of dividend, including taxes, works out to Rs60.34 crore. The company’s shares closed at Rs734.00, up 5.80% on the NSE.

Aditya Birla Group company Hindalco Industries reported a 25% fall in its standalone net profit for the quarter ended in March. In a regulatory filing to the BSE, the company said its standalone net profit declined to Rs376.97 crore during the fourth quarter of 2017-18, against Rs502.52 crore reported in the corresponding period of 2016-17. The total standalone income of the company for the quarter under review stood at Rs11,886.02 crore, down 0.7% lower than Rs11,969.66 crore earned in the same quarter of financial year 2017. For the financial year 2018, the company reported a fall of 7.73% in its standalone net profit at Rs1,436.49 crore. The board of directors have recommended dividend of 120% or Rs1.20 per equity share of face value of Re1 each for the financial year ended on March 31, the company said. The company’s shares closed at Rs232.20, down 3.15% on the NSE. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

JK Lakshmi Cement reported a 62.3% rise in its standalone net profit for the quarter ended in March. The company said in a statement that its net profit for the fourth quarter of 2017-18 stood at Rs33.84 crore, against Rs20.85 crore reported in the corresponding period of 2016-17. However, the total income of the cement company in the period under review declined 0.78% to Rs923.32 crore, compared to Rs930.57 crore earned during the fourth quarter of 2016-17, it said. For the financial year 2017-18, the company reported a standalone net profit of Rs83.96 crore, 2.4% higher than Rs82 crore reported in the previous year. The company’s shares closed at Rs376.00, down 2.29% on the NSE.

British Columbia, the Canadian province that is a leader in technology and has one of the fastest growing tech ecosystems in the world, is looking at a shortfall of 30,000 skilled individuals to fill tech-related jobs, with India as an important catchment area for recruiting immigrant talent. This is likely to give an impetus to the information technology industry in India to grow in exports to countries other than the United States and make it broad-based. The S & P BSE Information Technology Index closed at 13,250.20, down 0.10% on the BSE.

The top gainers and top losers of the major indices are given in the table below:


The closing values of the major Asian indices are given in the table below: The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Major Indices (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)



RBI is expected to shift to a hawkish tone on policy interest rates over the year, says Goldman Sachs-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


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17 May 2018
 
Inflation (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)


“We expect the RBI (Reserve Bank of India) to keep policy rates on hold at its meeting in June, but shift to a hawkish tone,” says Goldman Sachs in a research note. Although better activity data, higher inflation, and rising crude oil prices all point towards a more hawkish RBI and could warrant a policy rate hike, Goldman Sachs thinks that  the RBI would await clarity on minimum support price (MSP) hikes for summer crops, monsoon outturns, and more inflation data before embarking on a rate hiking cycle. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Goldman Sachs thinks that the decision facing the RBI is quite close. Its RBI probit model suggests a 30% probability of a rate hike. The policy projection is given in the chart below: The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions 
 
RBIThe Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)


“We maintain our view that the RBI will likely begin hiking policy rates in August this year. The probability of a June hike would increase if international oil prices rise further, or the Indian rupee depreciates significantly ahead of the June meeting,” forecasts the research note. 

Goldman Sachs enlists the following reasons in its analysis for its anticipated hawkish tone from RBI: The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

(a) India’s activity growth data have been gradually improving over the past few months. The Current Activity Indicator (CAI) suggests that India’s economy grew by 8.3% year-over-year in April 2018. Growth has remained above the 8%-mark for four consecutive months for the first time in seven years. The growth recovery was broad-based across the rural and urban economy, although the former is growing at a slower pace. The Rural CAI accelerated to 5.4% yoy (year-on-year) in April 2018, led by a pickup in both consumption (two-wheeler sales), and investment (tractor sales) indicators. Urban economic growth has consistently grown over 9% yoy over the past few months, driven by a pickup in investment-related indicators (manufacturing PMI, commercial vehicle sales, industrial production, etc.). Urban consumption growth is yet to see a meaningful pickup according to our CAI. The shocks from demonetisation and GST implementation appear to be fading. The key downside surprise this year has been the development in the banking sector (Punjab National Bank fraud, higher-than-expected haircuts on existing non-performing loans etc.), which led Goldman Sachs analysts to reduce their FY19 real GDP growth forecast by 40bp (basis points) earlier this year. Goldman Sachs analysts continue to think that the bank recapitalisation program will help kickstart a powerful positive impulse between credit and investment growth, boosting overall activity growth in the second half of the fiscal year 2018-19. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

(b) Headline inflation has bottomed and will likely rise over the coming months. Headline inflation had moderated to 4.3% yoy in March 2018 from 5.2% in December 2017, leading the RBI to lower its headline inflation forecasts by 40-50bp at its April monetary policy meeting. Since then, April headline inflation has surprised to the upside, coming in at 4.6% year-over-year, with core ex-transportation and communication inflation breaching the upper-end of the RBI’s inflation target band. This is likely to warrant a more hawkish RBI. The recent spike in oil prices following the withdrawal of the US from the Iran nuclear deal poses additional upside risks to India’s headline inflation forecasts. Goldman Sachs analysts estimate that a 10% increase in crude oil prices leads headline inflation to rise by 10bp (the impact increases to +25bp including second-round effects). The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The inflation forecast for the rest of the year is given in the chart below:
 
RBIThe Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)
(c) The rise in international crude oil price poses risks to India’s current account deficit. Tightening of global financial conditions have prompted several central banks across the region (particularly the current account deficit countries) to normalise monetary policy – with Philippines hiking most recently, and chances of a hike in Indonesia rising, argue Goldman Sachs analysts.

For these reasons, Goldman Sachs analysts forecast a hawkish tilt in the central bank’s tone at the June meeting, although they do not expect the central bank to hike policy rates given a number of uncertainties still prevail: the government is expected to announce minimum support prices for summer crops in mid-June; July-September is the key rainfall season for India, which eventually determines food production (and consequently food prices) for the upcoming year; and fiscal slippage concerns are likely to exert upward pressures on inflation which need to be carefully watched. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The research note suggests tighter monetary policy over the next couple of years, rising nearly 200bp from current policy rates. RBI is expected to hike interest rates cumulatively by 75bp by Q2 2019, with the risks of more in the second-half of 2019 depending on trends in growth recovery and inflation expectations.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions