Friday 21 September 2018

Too Many Negatives Come Together for Nifty, Sensex – Weekly closing report-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


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21 September 2018

I had mentioned in last week’s closing report that Nifty, Sensex might head higher. The major indices of the Indian stock markets suffered a sharp correction during the week and closed on Friday with losses over last Friday’s close. The trends of the major indices in the course of the week’s trading are given in the table below:


The key Indian equity indices closed in the red on Monday, as the S&P BSE Sensex lost more than 500 points and the NSE Nifty50 slipped by around 140 points amidst negative global cues on concerns over the US-China trade war escalating. Sector-wise, selling pressure was witnessed in banking, consumer durables and auto counters.

California-based Internet of Things (IoT) company Ayla Networks on Monday announced a strategic partnership with global technology and design services provider Tata Elxsi to help communications service providers (CSPs). 

Lending major Yes Bank plans to issue bonds worth Rs3,042 crore. According to a BSE filing by the company, the decision was taken by Yes Bank Board's Capital Raising Committee on Friday. 

V-MART Retail’s credit rating has been upgraded by ICRA. Alembic Pharma has received USFDA approval for Desvenlafaxine Extended-Release Tablets, 25 mg, an equivalent of PRISTIQ® of Wyeth Pharma Inc. The drug is indicated for the treatment of major depressive disorder (MDD). Estimated annual sales: US$ 13.3 million (ending Dec 2017). Glenmark Pharma has been granted final approval by the USFDA for its Estradiol Vaginal Inserts USP, 10 mcg, a generic version of VAGIFEM®, 10 mcg, of Novo Nordisk Inc. Approx. annual sales achieved: US$ 286.3 million (ending July 2018).

Private sector HDFC Bank has become India’s most valuable brand for the fifth year in a row with a 21% rise in its brand value to $21.7 billion over the previous year, according to a survey. According to a release here, HDFC Bank retained its top spot in the "WPP and Kantar Millward Brown's BrandZ 75 Most Valuable Indian Brands" ranking that was started in 2014 by the global communication services company.

The major indices of the Indian stock markets suffered a sharp correction on Tuesday and closed with losses over Monday’s close. On the NSE, there were 472 advances, 1,267 declines and 328 unchanged.

The State Bank of India (SBI) has put eight non-performing assets (NPAs), or bad loan accounts, on sale to recover over Rs3,900 crore with the e-bidding auction process slated for later this month. In a notification last week, SBI asked interested asset reconstruction companies (ARCs) and financial institutions to conduct the due diligence of the listed accounts which cumulatively owe the bank over Rs3,900 crore. The NPA accounts up for sale include Rohit Ferro Tech with the highest outstanding loan of Rs1,320.37 crore, Indian Steel Corporation (Rs928.97 crore), Jai Balaji Industries (Rs 859.33 crore), Mahalaxmi TMT (Rs409.78 crore) and Impex Ferro Tech (Rs200.67 crore).  The other defaulters' assets up for sale are Kohinoor Steel (Rs110.17 crore), Modern India Concast (Rs71.16 crore) and Ballarpur Industries (Rs47.17 crore).

Following up on government announcement on Monday about the proposed amalgamation of Bank of Baroda (BoB), Vijaya Bank and Dena Bank into the country's third-largest bank, BoB Managing Director P.S. Jayakumar said it may happen in four to six months. "Going by past practices, the merger may take four to six months. It can be speeded up also...it depends," Jayakumar told reporters.
 
Aurobindo Pharma has received approval from the South African Health Products Regulatory Authority (SAHPRA) for its Dolutegravir, Lamivudine and Tenofovir Disoproxil Fumarate (DLT) tablets, the first-line preferred regimen for HIV patients as per latest WHO guidelines.

The major indices of the Indian stock markets suffered a correction on Wednesday and closed with losses over Tuesday’s close. On the NSE, there were 582 advances, 1,139 declines and 347 unchanged.

Broadly negative global cues on the back of escalation in trade tensions dragged the key Indian equity indices into the red on Wednesday. On a provisional basis, the two key indices closed in the negative territory for the third consecutive session, with the S&P BSE Sensex losing over 150 points. 

The NSE Nifty50 dropped around 50 points to end below the 11,300 mark. Sector-wise, selling pressure was witnessed in banking, FMCG (fast moving consumer goods) and consumer durables counters.

Reliance Infrastructure (RInfra) Chairman Anil Ambani said that he expects the company to become debt-free by next year with the best credit ratings to match following the sale of its Mumbai power business to Adani Transmission for Rs18,800 crore earlier this year. 

Himachal Futuristic bagged Advance Purchase Order worth Rs611 crore approx. from BSNL for OFC laying project, supply of its Accessories and GPON Equipment in Madhya Pradesh under BharatNet Phase-II (for MP-1 Package). This includes O&M at a cost of Rs159 crore for 7 years. 

Sun Pharma has received European Commission (EC) approval for ILUMETRI® for the treatment of adults with moderate-to-severe chronic plaque psoriasis. According to studies, more than 92% of patients who responded to ILUMETRI® within 28 weeks maintained a 75% skin clearance response. 

On Thursday markets were closed. High volatility, following a likely credit crisis in the infrastructure lending and development sector, dragged the market in the red, with the S&P BSE Sensex swinging in around 1,500-point range on Friday. A plunge of over 1,100 points was witnessed on the BSE Sensex around 1 p.m, only to recover from the day's low within few minutes. Similarly, the NSE Nifty50 also recovered after dropping below the 11,000-mark. The sudden sell-off took place across the board with banking and financial stocks losing the most.

The fourth consecutive session's slide was triggered also by other factors, including lower possibility of the Reserve Bank of India cutting its key lending rates, analysts said.

The Reliance Industries (RIL) on Friday said it has permanently shut down its only oilfield in the eastern offshore Krishna-Godavari (KG) basin D6 block after it stopped producing crude. Reliance Industries shares closed at Rs1,216.20, up 0.45% on the NSE.

Indian software major Infosys on Friday announced hiring 1,000 Americans in the Arizona state as part of its commitment to employ 10,000 Americans to bridge the IT skill gap in the US by 2023. The Arizona hub will focus on autonomous technologies, Internet of Things (IoT), full-stack engineering, data science and cyber security. "We will hire graduates from the state's colleges, universities and local techies for the Arizona hub and train them through our curriculum for upskilling," said the statement. Infosys shares closed at Rs710.00, down 1.35% on the NSE.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
 
Weekly Indices (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)


Fitch ups India's growth forecast to 7.8% for FY19 -The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


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21 September 2018
 
Fitch Ratings (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)


Fitch Ratings Friday upped India's growth forecast for the current fiscal to 7.8 per cent, from 7.4 per cent earlier, but flagged rising oil bill and higher interest rates as key concerns. 

Fitch, in its Global Economic Outlook, said it expects inflation to rise to the upper end of the central bank's target band (4 per cent, plus-minus 2 per cent) on relatively high demand-pull pressures and rupee depreciation. 

"We have revised up our forecast for FY2018-2019 growth to 7.8 per cent from 7.4 per cent on the back of the better-than-expected 2Q18 outturn. India's growth likely peaked in 2Q18 (April-June) though," Fitch said. 

Growth forecast for 2019-20 and 2020-21 fiscals, however, have been cut by 0.2 percentage points to 7.3 per cent. 

"The economic outlook is subject to several headwinds, including tightening of financial conditions, a rising oil bill and weak bank balance sheets," it added. 

Fitch said the Indian rupee has been the worst-performing major Asian currency so far this year. 

"And despite the central bank's greater tolerance for currency depreciation, interest rates have been raised by more than anticipated," the global rating agency said in the report. 

The upward revision in growth forecast for current fiscal comes in the backdrop of GDP expanding 8.2 per cent in April-June quarter, higher than Fitch's expectation of 7.7 per cent. 

This robust performance was partly attributable to a powerful base effect, with GDP growth dampened in April-June quarter of 2017 by companies de-stocking ahead of the rollout of the goods and servicesNSE -2.30 % tax, Fitch said. 

"Fiscal policy should remain quite supportive of growth in the run-up to elections likely to be held in early 2019. The investment/GDP ratio has stopped trending down, helped by ramped-up public infrastructureNSE -8.73 % outlays, in particular by state-owned enterprises (SOEs)," the agency said. 

On global growth, Fitch said the US-China 'trade battle' led to increased "downside risk". 

Fitch cut China's growth projection for 2019 by 0.2 percentage points to 6.1 per cent. Global growth is estimated at 3.3 per cent for 2018 and 3.1 per cent for 2019. 

"The trade war is now a reality," said Fitch Chief Economist Brian Coulton. 

"The recently announced imposition of US tariffs on a further USD 200 billion of imports from China will have a material impact on global growth and, even though we have now included the 25 per cent tariff shock in our GEO baseline, the downside risks to our global growth forecasts have also increased," Coulton added. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

World Bank commits $25-30 bn for India's transition to high middle-income country -The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


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21 September 2018

Subhash Chandra Garg (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)


The World Bank Group (WBG) on Friday approved its largest country program for India with a likely assistance of $25-30 billion by fiscal 2021-22 to help India's transition to a higher middle-income country.
"With a fast growing economy, global stature, and its unique experience of lifting the highest number of poor out of poverty in the past decades, India is well-positioned to become a high middle-income country by 2030," World Bank South Asia Vice President Hartwig Schafer said.
The WBG Board endorsed a new Country Partnership Framework (CPF) for India aimed at supporting India's transition by addressing its key development priorities -- resource efficient and inclusive growth, job creation and building its human capital.
"The Group expects to deliver $25-30 billion during this CPF period, ending in FY 2022," the multilateral lending agency said in a statement.
India, which has strong collaboration with Group's institutions, is the largest client of International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD). As of mid-September 2018, total World Bank assistance stood at $27.2 billion representing 104 projects.
At the end of July 2018, International Finance Corporation's (IFC) India portfolio contained 281 projects, amounting to a committed exposure of $6.4 billion.
"This CPF charts a path for how the World Bank, IFC and MIGA (Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency), will leverage their relative strengths to deliver stronger development outcomes for this dynamic country, half of whose population is under the age of 25," Schafer said.
India's Economic Affairs Secretary S.C. Garg complemented the bank for aligning the CPF with India's development and investment objectives, the statement said.
The WBG will focus on promoting a resource efficient growth path, mainly in the use of land and water, to remain sustainable; enhancing competitiveness and job creation; and investing in health, education and skills to improve human capital.
It will also address the challenge of air pollution, jobs for women, raising the resilience of financial sector and investing in early years of children's development. It will harness new technology in all spheres.
The CPF highlights the shift from a "lending" to a "leveraging bank", emphasizing the growing potential and need to draw in capital markets in the financing of development priorities, the World Bank statement said.
Complementing transformational national programs, the bank will also develop strategic state partnerships to address state-specific development priorities.
"The future of India lies in the states of India. The country's transition to high middle-income status will be determined in large part by the effectiveness of India's federal compact," said Junaid Ahmad, Country Director, World Bank India.
The CPF also emphasises on India's global leadership role in promoting renewable energy and disaster resilient infrastructure development through its "Lighthouse India" initiative. India's experience will help countries in Africa and Central Asia, it saidThe Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Kharif acreage up 0.61% YoY to 1,057.81 lakh hectare -The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


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21 September 2018
 
kharif crops (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)


Planting of kharif crops this season has increased over the previous year’s figure. According to latest numbers from the agriculture ministry, kharif crop planting has covered 1,057.81 lakh hectare from June to September 20, a 0.61% increase from 1,051.36 lakh hectares a year earlier. 

Rice, oilseeds and sugarcane saw the increase while pulses, coarse cereals and cotton saw the decline. The government has set a target of planting kharif crop on 1,058.10 lakh hectares this year. 

 .. 
Meanwhile, data from the weather department shows monsoon rainfall has been 10% below normal so far this year. 


Rice planting saw a 2.36% increase over the previous year at 385.85 lakh hectare. 

Higher acreage was reported from Telangana, Karnataka , Madhya Pradesh and Punjab. Planting of oilseeds, chiefly soyabean, sesamum and castor increased while groundnut and niger fell, taking total planting from the previous year to 3.10% increase at 178.27 lakh hectare. 

Sugarcane, was planted on 51.94 lakh hectares, up 4.17% from a year earlier. Area under cotton however was 0.89% lower at 120.64 lakh hectares. The area of pulse cultivation too dropped 1.11% to 137.93 lakh hectares. Major dip was seen in uradbean. 

In coarse cereals the planting fell by 3.92% to 176.16 lakh hectare. All major cereals from jowar, bajra, ragi, small millets and maize saw the dip. 

The 91 major reservoirs held 23% more water as on Thursday compared with last year and 5% more than the ten year average at 120.087 billion cubic metres. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Global Stocks Buoyed By Wall Street Optimism-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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21 September 2018
financial markets (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)


Global stocks rose Friday as a record high on Wall Street buoyed investor sentiment despite global trade tensions.
KEEPING SCORE: In Europe, London's FTSE 100 index rose 0.9 percent to 7,433. Germany's DAX gained 0.4 percent to 12,378 and France's CAC 40 advanced 0.7 percent to 5,487. On Wall Street, futures for the Dow Jones industrial average and the Standard & Poor's 500 index were both flat.
ASIA'S DAY: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.5 percent to 2,797.48 and Tokyo's Nikkei 225 advanced 0.8 percent to 23,869.93. Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 1.7 percent to 27,869.93 and Seoul's Kospi was up 0.7 percent at 2,339.17. Sydney's S&P-ASX 200 added 0.4 percent to 6,194.60 while India's Sensex shed 1.6 percent to 36,512.26. Benchmarks in New Zealand, Taiwan and Southeast Asia also advanced.
TRADE TENSIONS: The Dow and S&P 500 set records as a wave of buying pushed prices higher despite an escalating trade war between the U.S. and China. The latest U.S. tariff hike on Chinese goods in a dispute over Beijing's technology policy takes effect Monday, when Washington imposes an additional 10 percent tax on $200 billion of imports. The tariffs will rise to 25 percent on Jan 1. Beijing announced it would retaliate by imposing tariffs of 5 or 10 percent on $60 billion of U.S. goods including coffee, honey and industrial chemicals.
ANALYST'S TAKE: "The resilience in the U.S. market is evident here and the breakout further renews the momentum," Jinyi Pan of IG said in a report. Still, "warning signs are abundant" amid U.S.-Chinese trade tensions, Pan said. "Cautiousness in the form of stop losses may be ever so important with the uncertainty in post-tariffs exchanges lingering into next week."
MANUFACTURING: A preliminary version of Japan's monthly purchasing managers' index showed factory activity accelerated in September. The measure of new export orders rose to a four-month high. A similar gauge of manufacturing in the eurozone showed mixed signals, with services doing well but manufacturing weakening slightly amid the global trade worries.
ENERGY: Benchmark U.S. crude fell 35 cents to $70.77 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract lost 55 cents on Thursday to close at $70.32. Brent crude, used to price international oils, advanced 85 cent to $79.55 per barrel in London. It tumbled 70 cents the previous session to $78.22.
CURRENCY: The dollar gained to 112.66 yen from Thursday's 112.46 yen. The euro edged down to $1.1769 from $1.1778.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Wednesday 19 September 2018

Nifty, Sensex under Relentless Selling Pressure – Wednesday closing report-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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19 September 2018

had mentioned in Tuesday’s closing report that Nifty, Sensex were awaiting government action on forex front. The major indices of the Indian stock markets suffered a correction on Wednesday and closed with losses over Tuesday’s close. On the NSE, there were 582 advances, 1,139 declines and 347 unchanged. The trends of the major indices in the course of Wednesday’s trading are given in the table below:


Broadly negative global cues on the back of escalation in trade tensions dragged the key Indian equity indices into the red on Wednesday. On a provisional basis, the two key indices closed in the negative territory for the third consecutive session, with the S&P BSE Sensex losing over 150 points. 

The NSE Nifty50 dropped around 50 points to end below the 11,300 mark. Sector-wise, selling pressure was witnessed in banking, FMCG (fast moving consumer goods) and consumer durables counters.

Reliance Infrastructure (RInfra) Chairman Anil Ambani said that he expects the company to become debt-free by next year with the best credit ratings to match following the sale of its Mumbai power business to Adani Transmission for Rs18,800 crore earlier this year. Reliance Infrastructure shares closed at Rs405.00, down 5.34% on the NSE.

Himachal Futuristic bagged Advance Purchase Order worth Rs611 crore approx. from BSNL for OFC laying project, supply of its Accessories and GPON Equipment in Madhya Pradesh under BharatNet Phase-II (for MP-1 Package). This includes O&M at a cost of Rs159 crore for 7 years. Himachal Futuristic Communications Limited shares closed at Rs23.30, up 4.72% on the NSE.

Sun Pharma has received European Commission (EC) approval for ILUMETRI® for the treatment of adults with moderate-to-severe chronic plaque psoriasis. According to studies, more than 92% of patients who responded to ILUMETRI® within 28 weeks maintained a 75% skin clearance response. Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Limited shares closed at Rs647.90, up 0.84% on the NSE.

VarrocCorp Holdings, Netherlands, a wholly owned subsidiary of Varroc Engineering has signed a JV agreement (Varroc-70%) with ELBA SA, a lighting & electronics company-based in Romania. The JV to be located in Timisoara, Romania and will focus on electronics manufacturing. Varroc Engineering shares closed at Rs989.00, down 2.21% on the NSE.

The construction arm of L&T has won orders worth Rs2,048 crore across two business segments. The Power T&D business has secured Rs1,633 crore. The Water & Effluent business has won an order worth Rs415 crore from Tamil Nadu Water Supply & Drainage Board. Larsen & Toubro shares closed at Rs1,333.10, up 0.39% on the NSE.

The top gainers and top losers of the major indices are given in the table below:


The closing values of the major Asian indices are given in the table below:

Major Indices (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)