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27^Th January 2018

ICICI Prudential SIP(The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

Nifty, Sensex May Go Sideways – Weekly closing report-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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25 January  2018

I had mentioned in last week’s closing report that Nifty, Sensex were on a roll. The major indices of the Indian stock markets rallied during the week and closed with gains on Thursday over last Friday’s close. The trends of the major indices in the course of the week’s trading are given in the table below: Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

 

Weekly Indices (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

Broadly positive global cues, coupled with buying in energy, consumer durables and capital goods stocks, pushed key Indian equity indices to trade at fresh highs on Monday. According to market observers, upbeat quarterly corporate earnings along with continuous inflow of foreign funds lifted investors' risk-taking appetite. Both benchmarks, Nifty and Sensex, climbed to fresh record highs in early trade on the hopes of government meeting the fiscal deficit target as it announced generating Rs370 billion through stake sale in petroleum refinery. On the NSE, there were 950 advances, 772 declines and 259 unchanged.

Budget passenger carrier SpiceJet on Monday said it has launched its "Great Republic Day Sale" with one-way fares starting as low as Rs769 and Rs2,469 for travel to select destinations on its domestic and international network respectively. According to the airline, the four-day sale launched on Monday would be open till January 25 while the travel period covered would be till December 12. Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Infosys on Monday announced a strategic partnership with Hong Kong-based AS Watson Group (ASW), an international health and beauty retailer, to accelerate ASWs digital transformation initiatives. AS Watson Group has over 13,700 stores in 24 markets. Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Key Indian equity indices on Tuesday climbed to new highs as investor sentiments were uplifted by bullish global cues, combined with fresh inflows of foreign funds and buying support in metals, banking and oil and gas stocks. Market observers said the sentiments were uplifted on projection of India's economic growth outlook, along with optimism over the Union Budget to be presented next week. Investors received a boost from International Monetary Fund's projection that India could emerge as the fastest-growing country in the world in 2018 at 7.4% amid optimism over Prime Minister Narendra Modi's address to the World Economic Forum. Also, investors' expectation from the Union Budget helped the market to reach new highs, pointed out market analysts. On the NSE, there were 885 advances, 797 declines and 333 unchanged. 

Asian Paints said its consolidated net profit after non-controlling interest (from continuing operations) rose by 21.6% to Rs554.64 crore during the third quarter (Q3) ended 31 December 2017, from Rs456.18 crore reported during a year-ago period. The company's consolidated revenue from operations edged higher by 10.9% to Rs4,267.49 crore during the quarter under review from Rs3,846.53 crore reported during the corresponding period of last fiscal. "The decorative paint business in India registered single-digit volume growth in the current quarter," K.B.S. Anand, Managing Director and CEO of Asian Paints, said in a statement. "The automotive coatings JV (PPG-AP), witnessed good growth in the auto OEM, auto refurnish and general industrial business segment; whereas good growth in the powder coatings segment led to decent performance of the Industrial Coatings JV," he added. According to Anand, units in Bangladesh, Oman, Bahrain and Nepal witnessed good growth. "However, the international group performance was impacted by adverse exchange fluctuations in some key markets," he added. On a standalone basis, the paint company's Q3 net profit surged by 24.2% to Rs528.97 crore compared with Rs425.83 crore reported during Q3 2016-17. Revenue from operations for the reviewed quarter stood at Rs3,587.43 crore -- up 11.3% -- from Rs3,222.32 crore during the like period of last fiscal. Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Key Indian equity indices closed Wednesday's trade on a flat-to-positive note -- wiping off most of last five sessions' gains -- as investors booked profits. However, key indices managed to close at fresh levels after touching new highs on an intra-day basis. According to market observers, stocks of IT (information technology), Tech and FMCG (fast moving consumer goods) contributed to the marginal gains in indices, while the consumer durables, oil and gas, and auto stocks dragged lower. Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Battery maker Eveready Industries India Ltd (EIIL) on Wednesday said it has agreed to enter into a joint venture (JV) with Indonesia-based Universal Wellbeing Pte. Ltd for manufacturing or importing and marketing of fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) in India. The city-based battery and lighting major would acquire 30 per cent shares of the joint venture while 70% would be acquired by the Indonesian firm. Universal Wellbeing, part of the Wings Group of Indonesia, is one of the leaders in the FMCG market in Southeast Asia and develops, manufactures and sells a wide variety of products in fabric and household care, personal care, skincare, and foods and beverages.

Idea Cellular posted consolidated net loss of Rs1,284.5 crore for the third quarter (October-December) 2017-18, a company statement said here on Wednesday. The company had posted consolidated net loss of Rs384 crore during the corresponding period in 2016-17. The company attributed its loss to the reduction of mobile termination charge in the industry from 14 paisa to 6 paisa per minute by the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India. 

Breaking a six-day gaining streak, the key Indian equity indices on Thursday slid into the negative territory as investors turned cautious on the day of January futures and options (F&O) expiry. According to market observers, profit booking in banking, IT (information technology) and consumer durables stocks dampened the sentiment. On the NSE, there were 585 advances, 1,140 declines and 289 unchanged. Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Asian stocks held near a record high on Thursday though concerns about the Trump administration's stance cast a shadow on financial markets while the dollar was under pressure after US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin welcomed a weaker currency, pointed out market analysts.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Government to infuse Rs1 lakh crore into PSBs this fiscal: Jaitley -The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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25 January  2018

 

FM (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

Seeking to perk up public sector banks that have been hit by huge non-performing assets (NPAs), the government on Wednesday announced plans to infuse over Rs. one lakh crore including Rs 80,000 crore through recap bonds and Rs 8,139 crore as budgetary support during the current fiscal.

The government will raise Rs. 10,312 crore from the market, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley disclosed at a press conference here giving details of the recap programme. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions 

Of the recap amount, among others the government will give Rs 10,610 crore to IDBI, Rs 8,800 crore to State Bank of India, Rs 5,375 crore to Bank fo Baroda, Rs 4,865 crore to Canara Bank and Rs 4,524 crore to Union Bank 

"We have announced recapitalisation of PSBs in October, 2017 to the tune of Rs 2.11 lakh crore over two years. I have already moved a supplementary grant in Parliament on this. The entire objective of this exercise has been that it is government's prime responsibility to keep PSBs in good health," Jaitley said.

"We inherited a very major problem. The problem is of the past. Our objective was to find solution and create an institution so that the mistakes are not repeated," he said. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Banking Secretary Rajiv Kumar said the recap plan would enable additional credit offtake capacity of PSBs by over Rs five lakh crore.

Economic Affairs Secretary Subhash Chandra Garg said the recap plan would be cash neutral and the bonds thus issued would be non-SLR (Statutary Liquidity Ratio) and non-tradable. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Jaitley said while planning recapitalisation the government had two objectives -- which bank would get how much money and also that what happened in the past leading to large ammount of NPAs does not repeat itself.

He said this would be ensured by making sure that banks follow various steps to ensure that the governance of banks follows higher standards.

The recap would be accompanied by strong reforms package across six themes incorporating strong action points, an official statement said.

The six themes include customer responsiveness, responsible banking, credit off take, PSBs as Udyami Mitra, deepening financial inclusion and digitalisation and developing personnel for brand PSB, it said.

"The overarching framework for the reforms agenda is Responsive and Responsible PSBs." The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

There are 21 PSBs in the country that comprise 70 per cent of the banking industry, said Rajiv Kumar, Banking Secretary.

"This plan addresses regulatory capital requirement of all PSBs and provides a significant amount towards growth capital for increasing lending to the economy," he said. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

"As discussed earlier this recapitalisation will be front loaded depending on the performance and merit of the PSB," he said adding that loans above Rs 250 crore would be specially monitored. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Making a pitch for responsible banking, Kumar said that banks would need to have a minimum 10 per cent exposure for consortium loans.

"So unlike earlier when some parties used to take loans from 13-14 lenders, there would now be only six-seven lenders." The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

He also added PSBs should give loans responsibly so that there are no non-performing assets. "A separate stressed asset management vertical will be set up in each PSB. Each bank should adopt a policy according to its core strength."

Allaying fears among the public in the wake of social media reports on safety of deposits in PSBs, he said: "Depositors' money in PSB is safe."

The government also said the banks need to identify non-core assets to monetise it. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Kumar added that government would not interfere in any PSB's corporate decision making. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Talking about how to measure progress of recapitilisation, Kumar said an annual index will be launched, which would be a survey by an independent reputed agency on it. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

"Taken together, the recap and reform agenda is sharply focused on strengthening PSBs, increasing lending to MSMEs and making it easier for MSMEs and retail customers to transact as well as significantly increasing accress to banking services," the statement said.

"It includes a commitment to banking services within five kilometres of every village, refund within 10 days of any unauthorised debt in electronic transactions, a mobile app for locating banking outlets and a mobile ATM in every undeserved district," it said.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Gold price hits 14-month high, surges to Rs 31,450 per 10 gram-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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25 January  2018

Gold (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

Gold prices soared by Rs 350 to trade at over 14-month high of Rs 31,450 per 10 gram on Thursday, tracking a firm trend overseas amid pick-up in buying by local jewellers. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Silver regained the Rs 41,000-mark by jumping Rs 1,100 on increased offtake by industrial units and coin makers. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Bullion traders attributed the rally in gold to a firm trend overseas as the dollar weakened to near three-year lows in the wake of comments by US Treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin that he welcomed a weaker currency, raising demand for the precious metal as a safe haven. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Besides, an uptick in seasonal buying by local jewellers firmed up the prices, they added. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Globally, gold ruled firm as it rose 0.43 percent to trade at nearly 1-1/2 year high of USD 1,363.60 an ounce in Singapore. Silver also rose by 0.29 percent to USD 17.58 an ounce. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

In the national capital, gold of 99.9 percent and 99.5 percent purity shot up by Rs 350 each to Rs 31,450 and Rs 31,300 per ten gram, respectively, a level last seen on November 9, 2016. It had gained Rs 25 in yesterday's trade.

Sovereign however held steady at Rs 24,800 per piece of eight gram.

Tracking gold, silver ready jumped Rs 1,100 to Rs 41,000 per kg and weekly-based delivery Rs 1,190 to Rs 40,130 per kg.

Silver coins however remained steady at Rs 74,000 for buying and Rs 75,000 for selling of 100 pieces.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

IIP growth at 6%+ for Dec. 1 and, 4%+ for Jan. 18: SBI Study -The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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25 January  2018

SBI (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

“We believe the economy is now in a gradual recovery mode. The 8.4% IIP growth in November is possibly no flash in the pan and a 6% + growth in December as per SBI Index may not be ruled out. In January 2018, the IIP may continue to grow in excess of 4%, indicating a marginal moderation in month-on-month growth,” says a report from the Economic Research Department (ERD) in SBI Corporate Centre.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

ERD aims at tendering technical advice to the management on economic and financial problems in which the bank has interest and which requires expert analysis. The report has been authored by  Dr. Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Group Chief Economic Adviser, SBI. The yearly SBI Composite Index for Jan’18 is at 52.1 (Moderate Growth), compared to 53.1 (Moderate Growth) in Dec’17. The M-o-M index declined to the benchmark of 50 and is at 49.5 (Low Decline) in Jan’18, compared to 50.6 (Low Growth) in Dec’17.

The report points out that improved credit ratio (upgrades to downgrades) during the 9-month ending Dec’17 favoured NBFCs, especially housing finance companies with credit ratios of 3, i.e. nine companies upgraded during the period as compared to downgrade of 3 companies. “This indicates that household consumption growth remains robust and will only improve in the coming days,” says the report. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

In the infra sector, power producer and electric utility companies have also shown improved credit ratio of 1.35 and 1.88 during the period. In the consumption space chemicals, auto components, container and packaging etc. have shown credit ratios of above one between Apirl’17 and  Dec’17 as per the data of all rating agencies. Improved credit ratio indicates that household consumption growth remains robust and will only improve in the coming days.

According to the study, a synchronized global growth with an uptick in the commodity cycle will also help sectors like metals, textiles and even sugar. For example, credit growth in textiles, traditionally an employment intensive sector, has dipped into negative territory since the sector earned a bad name due to defaults. However, going by FY17 IPO mop up of more than Rs800 crore, the study expects textiles to do well in the coming fiscal.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

World Stocks Stabilize As Focus Remains On Dollar Drop-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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25 January  2018

Japan financial markets (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

Stocks mostly edged up Thursday despite a drop in Asian benchmarks as investors weighed the potential impact of a sharp drop in the dollar this week.

KEEPING SCORE: Germany's DAX was up almost 0.1 percent to 13,418 and the CAC 40 in France rose 0.4 percent to 5,518. Markets were awaiting comments from the European Central Bank, which was due to keep its policies unchanged. Britain's FTSE 100 was flat at 7,645. Wall Street looked set for small gains on the open, with both S&P 500 futures and Dow futures up 0.2 percent.

DAVOS FACTOR: The dollar fell to a three-year low against the euro and dropped sharply against other currencies on Wednesday after U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said the dollar's recent weakness was "good" for trade. On Thursday, he repeated that the U.S is "not concerned" about the value of the dollar in the short-term. The comment broke with two decades of U.S. policy in which Treasury chiefs largely said they supported a strong dollar and raised concern that the U.S. government might be trying to talk down the dollar's value to help U.S. exporters. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

ANALYST'S VIEWPOINT: "The overnight focus had all been on the U.S. dollar with another jab sending the currency weaker against major currencies," Jingyi Pan of IG said in a commentary. "Meanwhile, concern over trade and protectionism is currently the new flavor of the month, adding a tinge of cautiousness in the latest equity surge." The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

THE DAY IN ASIA: Japan's Nikkei 225 sank 1.1 percent to 23,669.49 and Hong Kong's Hang Seng slipped 0.9 percent to 32,654.45. South Korea's Kospi surged 1.0 percent to 2,562.23 while the S&P/ ASX 200 in Australia fell 0.1 percent to 6,050.00. The Shanghai Composite index lost 0.3 percent to 3,548.31 and India's Sensex dipped 0.5 percent to 35,975.44. Shares rose in Taiwan and Thailand but fell in Singapore and Indonesia. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

CURRENCIES: The dollar dipped below 109 yen but was trading late Thursday Tokyo time at 109.02 yen, down from 109.22 yen late Wednesday. The euro slipped to $1.2398 from $1.2411, having earlier hit a new three-year high against the dollar of $1.2461. The ICE U.S. dollar index fell almost 10 percent in 2017 and is down 3 percent so far this year. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

ENERGY: Benchmark U.S. crude rose 41 cents to $66.02 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It gained $1.14 on Wednesday. Brent crude, used to price international oils, gained 25 cents to $70.78 per barrel. It added 57 cents the day before.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Nifty, Sensex may move sideways – Wednesday closing report-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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24 January  2018

I had mentioned in Tuesday’s closing report that Nifty, Sensex were in a strong bull grip. The major indices of the Indian stock markets were range-bound on Wednesday and closed with minor gains over Tuesday’s close. On the NSE, there were 405 advances, 1,005 declines and 25 unchanged. The trends of the major indices in the course of Wednesday’s trading are given in the table below:

 

Major Indices (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

Key Indian equity indices closed Wednesday's trade on a flat-to-positive note -- wiping off most of last five sessions' gains -- as investors booked profits. However, key indices managed to close at fresh levels after touching new highs on an intra-day basis. According to market observers, stocks of IT (information technology), Tech and FMCG (fast moving consumer goods) contributed to the marginal gains in indices, while the consumer durables, oil and gas, and auto stocks dragged lower.

Battery maker Eveready Industries India Ltd (EIIL) on Wednesday said it has agreed to enter into a joint venture (JV) with Indonesia-based Universal Wellbeing Pte. Ltd for manufacturing or importing and marketing of fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) in India. The city-based battery and lighting major would acquire 30 per cent shares of the joint venture while 70% would be acquired by the Indonesian firm. Universal Wellbeing, part of the Wings Group of Indonesia, is one of the leaders in the FMCG market in Southeast Asia and develops, manufactures and sells a wide variety of products in fabric and household care, personal care, skincare, and foods and beverages. The company’s shares closed at Rs432.85, down 1.57% on the BSE.

Bankers have suggested accelerated investments and interest subvention for investments in long gestation infrastructure projects, along with lowering of corporate tax rate and minimum alternative tax (MAT) to boost credit growth, said a survey released on Wednesday. The survey, by the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce & Industry (Ficci) and the Indian Banks' Association (IBA), also said bankers recommended that the government should allow a full tax deduction on the NPA provisioning as against the cap of 5% of taxable income. "The bankers have suggested specific measures that may be announced in the upcoming Union Budget to facilitate credit growth and investment pick-up in the economy. They recommend accelerated investments in infrastructure sector as well as interest subvention for investments in long gestation infrastructure projects," the survey said. 

Idea Cellular posted consolidated net loss of Rs1,284.5 crore for the third quarter (October-December) 2017-18, a company statement said here on Wednesday. The company had posted consolidated net loss of Rs384 crore during the corresponding period in 2016-17. The company attributed its loss to the reduction of mobile termination charge in the industry from 14 paisa to 6 paisa per minute by the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India. Idea Cellular closed at Rs94.05, down 5.38% on the BSE.

SBI Capital Markets will evaluate Indian Railways' overhead equipment (OHE) network for electrical traction as the state-run transporter is exploring the monetisation of its transmission assets. Expecting to raise about Rs25,000 crore from monetisation of these assets, the Railways has asked SBI Caps to study its transmission and distribution network for valuation and submit a report next month. Railways has about 25,000 km of electrified routes involving OHE through which electric locomotives draw power for running trains and an action plan finalised by Railway Minister Piyush Goyal has envisaged the complete electrification of the network by 2020-21. 

Indiabulls Housing Finance reported a rise of 55% in its consolidated net profit to Rs1,167.73 crore during the third quarter (Q3) ended on December 31. According to the company, its net profit for the quarter under review stood at Rs1,167.73 crore -- up 55.39% -- from Rs751.49 crore during the corresponding period of the previous fiscal. In a regulatory filing to the BSE, the company said its Q3 total revenue edged higher by 36.65% to Rs4,105.66 crore from Rs3,004.47 crore reported during a year ago period. The company declared an interim dividend of Rs14% equity share for the financial year 2017-18, the BSE filing said. The company’s shares closed at Rs1,359.65, down 1.43% on the BSE.

The top gainers and top losers of the major indices are given in the table below:

 

Top Gainer (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

The closing values of the major Asian indices are given in the table below:

Asian Indices (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

PSU Banks recapitalization plan linked with reforms is a positive step-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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24 January  2018

 

Banking (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

The government will infuse more that Rs88,000cr into public sector banks in FY18 itself, as a part of its Rs2.11lakh crore recapitalization plan to boost the capital of state owned banks.

The capital infusion plan for 2017-18 includes Rs80,000cr through Recap Bonds and Rs8,139cr as budgetary support. This plan addresses regulatory capital requirement of all PSBs and provides a significant amount towards growth capital for increasing lending to the economy.

This capital infusion is a step in the positive direction, as it will fund their growth plans and would cushion these banks to provide for NPA provision. Besides, this will increase lending to MSMEs and make it easier for MSMEs and retail customers to transact. However, the NPA provisions of the PSU banks are expected to remain higher for next 1-2 quarter, which in turn would dent their profitability.

The reform agenda is aimed at EASE – (Enhanced Access and Service Excellence), focusing on six themes of customer responsiveness, responsible banking, credit off take, PSBs as Udyami Mitra, deepening financial inclusion & digitalization and developing personnel for brand PSB.

The banks whose regulatory requirement haven’t fallen below RBI minimum limits will get Rs35,828cr and the banks under prompt corrective action will get Rs52,311cr. The additional capital infusion by the Government is contingent on the performance of PSBs on the reform.

The breakup of capital infusion into non PCA banks for FY18 is as follows - SBI-Rs8,800cr, PNB-Rs5,470cr, BOB-Rs5,375cr, Canara Bank-Rs4,865cr, Union Bank-Rs4,524cr, Syndicate Bank-Rs2,839cr, Andhra Bank-Rs1,890cr, Vijaya Bank-Rs1,277cr, Punjab & Sind Bank-Rs785cr.

The breakup of capital infusion into PCA banks for FY18 is as follows - IDBI bank-Rs10,610cr, Bank of India-Rs9,232cr, UCO Bank-Rs6,507cr, Central bank of India-Rs5,158cr, Indian Overseas Bank-Rs4,694cr, Oriental Bank of Commerce-Rs3,571cr, Dena Bank-Rs3,045cr, Bank of Maharashtra-Rs3,173cr, United Bank of India-Rs2,634cr, Corporation Bank-Rs2,187 cr and Allahabad Bank-Rs1,500cr.

Indian Bank has not been allotted any funds, due to its better capital adequacy and performance.

The approach to the recapitalization of PSU banks has been aligned with reforms. This is with the intent to create an institutional mechanism so that the NPA problem does not occur in future. Also, the government wants to ensure maximum governance of PSU banks.

The few reforms are discussed below:
• There will be separate stress asset management mechanism for all the PSU banks for timely recovery.
• All the loans above Rs250cr will undergo special monitoring.
• Breach of any loan covenant will be shared W/entire lending consortium as a red flag.
• PSU banks will need to identify their non-core assets to monetize it.
• Each bank to adopt a policy in accordance with their core strength.
• The state run banks will have to maintain regulatory capital and would not be allowed to fail it.
• Board of the respective banks will have to assign one independent director to review progress. In addition, one survey will be conducted by the regulatory agency in respect of EASE to review the performance of these banks.

Large state-owned banks, namely, SBI, BOB, and PNB, are likely to be the key beneficiaries of the government action. We believe reported profitability of state-owned banks would remain depressed due to the accelerated provisioning requirement through FY19E.

Our top picks in PSU banks space are SBI, BOB, PNB, Canara Bank and Indian Bank.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions