Friday 17 February 2017

Nifty, Sensex still range-bound – Weekly closing report-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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17 February 2017

I had mentioned in last week’s closing report that Nifty, Sensex lacked momentum. The major indices of the Indian stock markets were range-bound during the week and closed with small gains on Friday. The trends of the major indices in the course of the week’s trading are given in the table below: The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
 
Weekly Indices (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

Indian equity benchmarks closed flat with very little gains on Monday as the market waited for the January retail inflation data to be announced after-hours. Industrial production declined by 0.4% in December 2016, against the strong growth of 5.7% in November 2016. Bank of Baroda, one of the largest public lenders, fell more than 10% because the market was disappointed with the December quarter results. SBI also fell 1.76%, whereas most of the private bank stocks rose. Coal India fell 1.23% after consolidated net profit fell 20.25%, to Rs2,884.47 crore, on 2.88% rise in total income, to Rs21531.28 crore, for the December 2016 quarter, the results of which were announced on Saturday, 11 February 2017. 

Infosys rose by 1.6% as co-founder NRM Murthy commented that Chairman R Seshasayee enjoys the “highest integrity” and called off his fight with the board, saying that the company will deal with the corporate governance issues. Piramal enterprises rose by 3.37% after reporting growth in total income of 31.11%, to Rs2,313.83 crore, and net profit growth of 31.66%, to Rs404.08 crore. Suzlon rose by 11% after the company reported growth in total income of 75.7%, to Rs3307.48 crore, and net profit of Rs274.34 crore for December 2016 quarter, as against net loss of Rs121.84 crore in December 2015 quarter. On Monday, the Central Statistics Office (CSO) reported that India's annual retail inflation eased to 3.17% in January, from 3.41% in December and 5.69% reported during the corresponding period last year. The increase in inflation could lead to a hardening of interest rates and hence a slowdown in the bullish approach in the stock markets. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Indian equities markets on Tuesday closed on a flat note as disappointing macro-economic data, coupled with broadly negative Asian indices and profit booking, subdued investors' sentiments. The BSE market breadth was tilted in favour of the bears -- with 1,790 declines and 1,039 advances. On the NSE, there were 479 advances, 991 declines and 61 unchanged. India's annual rate of inflation, based on wholesale prices, rose to 5.25% during last month, from 3.39% reported for December 2016, official data showed on Tuesday, mainly due to a rise in fuel costs. According to the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) data released by the Commerce and Industry Ministry, the annual inflation rate was (-)1.07% in January, 2016. The wholesale inflation for food articles declined by (-)0.56% during the month under review, from (-)0.70% in December and 6.46% recorded for January, 2016. However, expenses on primary articles, which constitute 20.12% of the WPI's total weight, rose by 1.27% during January. 

The increased chances of an upcoming US rate hike, along with disappointing quarterly results, dragged the Indian equities markets lower on Wednesday. The key domestic indices closed more than half a per cent down, as selling pressure was witnessed in automobile, healthcare and consumer durables' stocks. The BSE market breadth was skewed in favour of the bears -- with 2,143 declines and 698 advances. On the NSE, there were 298 advances, 1,361 declines and 73 unchanged. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

State-run Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL) is set to go public soon to sell 10% of equity shares of Rs10 face value, a top official said on Sunday. "We will soon make Initial Public Offering (IPO) to sell 36.1 million shares, which are equivalent to 10% of the holding by the government. The draft prospectus is ready for filing with the market regulator (Sebi) and have appointed the book-running lead managers," HAL Chairman T Suvarna Raju told reporters. 

The government, which owns the defence behemoth, has diluted 25% (120.5 million shares) of its full holding through buy-back and collected Rs5,265 crore, including Rs981 as tax from the company, during the last fiscal (2015-16). Post-IPO, the government holding in the company will be 65%. "The valuation process is underway to fix the issue price for the IPO. We hope to do so by the end of this fiscal (2016-17) or during the ensuing fiscal (2017-18)," asserted Raju. The cash-rich firm paid Rs750 crore as dividend to the government for fiscal 2015-16. These shares are also likely to be attractive to foreign institutional investors post-listing on the stock exchanges. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Broadly, positive global indices and value-buying lifted the Indian equities markets on Thursday. The key domestic indices closed with gains of more than half a per cent each, as buying was witnessed in healthcare, automobile, and metal stocks. The BSE market breadth was in favour of the bulls -- with 1,807 advances and 992 declines.  On the NSE, there were 1,154 advances, 480 declines and 86 unchanged. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


On Friday, the major indices of the Indian stock markets were range-bound and closed with small gains of 0.50%-0.59%. However, some gains were capped on the back of negative global cues and profit booking. The BSE market breadth was marginally in favour of the bulls -- with 1,418 advances and 1,392 declines. On the NSE, on Friday, there were 866 advances, 760 declines and 83 unchanged.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Foreign stake in HDFC Bank crosses 74% limit again: RBI-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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17 February 2017

Private sector HDFC Bank has again crossed the foreign investment limit prescribed as a percentage of paid-up capital for Indian companies, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said on Friday. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Only a day earlier, on Thursday, the RBI announced that such investments had fallen below the ceiling. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The apex bank had said that foreign investors' holdings in HDFC Bank had fallen below the threshold limit prescribed under the foreign direct investment (FDI) policy. 

In a raction, foreign investors bought the stock, crossing then limit.

"The foreign shareholding by American Depository Receipts (ADR)/Global Depository Receipts (GDR)/ Foreign institutional Investors (FIIs)/Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs)/ Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)/Non-Resident Indians (NRIs)/ Persons of Indian Origin (PIOs) in M/s HDFC Bank Ltd has crossed the overall limit of 74 per cent of its paid-up capital." an RBI statement said on Friday. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

"Therefore, no further purchases of shares of this company would be allowed through stock exchanges in India on behalf of Foreign institutional Investors (FIIs)/Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs)/ Non-Resident Indians (NRIs)/ Persons of Indian Origin (PIOs)," it added.

The RBI monitors the ceilings on FII/NRI/PIO investments in Indian companies on a day-to-day basis. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


The HDFC stock surged initially on Friday after the RBI removed the ban on buying by FIIs, but fell later in the day to close at Rs 1,377.15 a share, up 49.80 points, or 3.75 per cent, over its previous close on the BSE.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Deposits raised by unregulated entities are on the radar of Finance Ministry-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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17 February 2017



Finance (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)
India is a country where business is largely carried on in the form of proprietary concerns and partnership firms, and not in the form of companies and Limited Liability Partnerships (LLP). The way of doing business is quite informal, including modes of raising funds for business.

While a few companies (Saradha, Sahara, Sumangal, and Sanchayita) were responsible for the scams in the past, all those doing business will have to bear the brunt of their acts. When the deposit rules under the Companies Act, 2013 became stricter, it was obvious for people to think of LLPs. Most people would prefer not to do business in a highly regulated environment, especially when the business model itself is fairly simple. Fund requirement is a perennial issue and, depending on the size of business and capacity of the businessman, the source varies. So, one may not necessarily go to a bank or a non-banking finance corporation (NBFC) or one’s relatives to raise funds for a business, and instead may go to  ‘Khanna uncle’ or ‘Balbirbhai’. However, the enforcement of Banning of Unregulated Deposit Schemes and Protection of Depositors’ Interests Act, 2016 (the Bill 2016) will curb this practice. Looking at the penal provisions, businessmen would prefer to suffer losses rather than to go to jail.

Section 45S of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Act also prohibits acceptance of deposits by unincorporated bodies. The intent of this bill is also to spread the net on all deposit-takers who accept or solicit deposits to defraud investors, and not to meet the fund requirement in the ordinary course of business. However, the exclusion carved out does not adequately consider options like borrowings from ‘Khanna uncle’, unless they are obtained as advance for supplying goods, or rendering service, or received as credit. Similarly, raising money through issue of bonds, debentures by LLP or trust has not been included, unless these entities are Alternative Investment Funds (AIF) or mutual funds.

In September 2015, SEBI in an informal guidance given to Vijay Suraksha Realty LLP, conveyed that while the definition of ‘debt securities’ under SEBI (ILDS) Regulations 2008 covers securities issued by a LLP (a body corporate), the definition of ‘issuer’ talks specifically about company, public sector undertaking or statutory corporation. Further, the option for LLPs to raise funds from other sources, not partners or relatives of partners, gets prohibited under this Bill.  

Every Ponzi scheme is followed by a new law and such reactive law-making adds to the woes of genuine entrepreneurs. The penal provisions under such law are equally scary. ‘Scheme’ means to make plans, especially in a devious way or with intent to do something illegal or wrong. The intention is to prohibit such persons from defrauding investors. However, funds raised from third person for genuine business purpose cannot be regarded as a scheme for raising deposits in a country where a large part of business is run in an unorganised manner. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

So each time an unincorporated body or LLP requires funds, it will have to look at the Central Government and plead ‘Prabhu path pradarshitkariye’ to wait for the Central Government to notify deposit schemes that shall not be treated as Unregulated Deposit Schemes for the purposes of this Act. Instead of specifying what schemes can be excluded, a litmus test must be provided such that meeting of any of those conditions would regard the loan as unregulated deposit. 


Considering the above mentioned points and keeping in view the small businesses, this Bill may be made lenient for particular cases. Protection should be given to those who intend to be protected, therefore, the known investors (other than relatives) should also be able to lend to such businesses.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Note ban hit microfinance loans in Q3 by 26%: MFIN-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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17 February 2017

The Indian microfinance industry recorded a drop of 26% in the number of loans disbursed and a 16% decline in loan amounts disbursed during the third quarter ended December, as compared to the corresponding quarter of the last fiscal, the Microfinance Institutions Network (MFIN) said on Thursday. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

"The pulling out of the High-Value Currency Notes (HCVNs) from circulation significantly impacted the microfinance sector, which is 99 per cent cash-driven," MFIN -- the self-regulatory body of the Reserve Bank-regulated non-banking finance companies (NBFCs) and microfinance institutions (MFIs) -- said in a release here.

"The decrease on both disbursement and collection is due to the impact on industry post discontinuance of Rs500 and Rs1,000 notes," it said.

"Post the discontinuation of HCVNs with effect from midnight of 8th November, the industry was thrown out of gear initially," said MFIN Chief Executive Ratna Vishwanathan.

"During the whole two months post discontinuing of High-Value Currency Notes, MFIN has had to engage with state governments, at both the ministerial level as well as the bureaucracy, the RBI and extensively with the press, to quell the surge of disinformation with reference to microfinance practices," she added. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

According to the body, loans disbursed during the third quarter ended December amounted to Rs12,424 crore, as compared to Rs14,707 crore disbursed during the same quarter last year.

However, the microfinance industry grew by 53% year-on-year during the quarter in consideration, the statement said. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The aggregate gross loan portfolio of microfinance institutions stood at Rs56,634 crore in the quarter ended December 2016, as compared to Rs36,912 crore in the same quarter of the previous year. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


The MFIN also said that 56% of total disbursements during the quarter came from five states -- Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra, Odisha and Bihar.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

U.S. Dollar Higher, But Looking Toppy-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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17 February 2017

STOCK INDEX FUTURES
NASDAQ futures advanced to new historical highs yesterday. However, stock index futures are lower today as industrial metals prices declined, U.K. retail sales fell in January and European equity markets are mostly weaker.
The 9:00 central time January leading index is expected to be up .5%.
The main trend for stock index futures is higher. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

CURRENCY FUTURES
After two days of lower prices the U.S. dollar is higher today in spite of lowered prospects of tighter credit policies from the Federal Open Market Committee.
Strength in the U.S. dollar is likely to be limited due to the belief that a greenback that is too strong will prompt verbal intervention from U.S. government officials.
The euro currency is lower as a result of political uncertainties in France and dovish commentary from the European Central Bank. Yesterday there were press reports that economic stimulus from the European Central Bank will not be removed until inflation has risen in a sustainable way.

The British pound is lower after a report showed retail sales in the U.K. fell for a third month, declining .3% in January. The median estimate called for an increase of 1%.

Lower crude oil prices pressured the Canadian dollar and the Australian dollar. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES
Thirty year Treasury bond futures are higher as a result of lower stock index futures and mostly weaker industrial commodities.

In addition, there was some support on news that China snapped a six month streak of selling U.S. Treasuries in December, even though its holdings for the year declined by the most on record. China's holdings of U.S. Treasuries increased by $9.1 billion in December to $1.06 trillion. This was the first monthly increase since May.
There was also support due to lessened prospects of tighter credit policies from the FOMC.
The probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will increase its fed funds rate at its March 15 policy meeting is 18%, when 22%was predicted yesterday. The probability of a rate hike at its May 3 meeting is 44%, which compares to 49% yesterday and the probability of a rate increase at the June 14 meeting is 70%, when 75% was expected on Thursday.
Longer term, the dominant inflation influence, both commodity and wage inflation, will push futures lower, especially the 30 year Treasury bonds. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
March 17 S&P 500
Support 2333.00 Resistance 2354.00
March 17 U.S. Dollar Index
Support 100.310 Resistance 100.880
March 17 Euro Currency
Support 1.06320 Resistance 1.06960
March 17 Japanese Yen
Support .88000 Resistance .88920
March 17 Canadian Dollar
Support .76270 Resistance .76670
March 17 Australian Dollar
Support .7644 Resistance .7731
March 17 Thirty Year Treasury Bonds
Support 150^12 Resistance 152^2
April 17 Gold
Support 1233.0Resistance 1249.0
March 17 Copper
Support 2.6800 Resistance 2.7450
April 17 Crude Oil

Support 53.03 Resistance 54.35

Thursday 16 February 2017

Nifty, Sensex in a sideways mode – Thursday closing report-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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16 February 2017

I had mentioned in Wednesday’s closing report that Nifty, Sensex were turning weak. The major indices of the Indian stock markets rallied on Thursday and closed 0.50%-0.60% lower than Wednesday’s close. The trends of the major indices in the course of Thursday’s trading are given in the table below: The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
 
Major Indices (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)
Broadly positive global indices and value buying, lifted the Indian equities markets on Thursday. The key domestic indices closed with gains of more than half a per cent each, as buying was witnessed in healthcare, automobile, and metal stocks. The BSE market breadth was in favour of the bulls -- with 1,807 advances and 992 declines.  On the NSE, there were 1,154 advances, 480 declines and 86 unchanged. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


With the Union Cabinet granting approval to the merger into the State Bank of India (SBI) of its five associate banks, the public lender on Thursday said the combined entity would have lower management costs resulting in savings on operating costs. "Once merger is complete, we will be in a position to save costs of these associate banks, because the structure of the five head offices will fold into one corporate office of the SBI. The zonal offices will also get integrated into our operations," SBI Managing Director DK Khara told BTVi in an interview. "Lesser management costs of these offices will get reflected in saving operating costs of banks. CASA (Current Account, Savings Account) will go up. Lots of cost efficiency and capital efficiency will come into play. It will save costs for banks, which will save resource cost and prove advantageous," Khara said. He said that though there are no plans to shut down branches, rationalisation of branches would take place -- meaning dedicated branches for small and medium entreprise (SME) lending, servicing high net worth individuals (HNIs), among others. "It will create much more value for customers," he added. The merged entity with the one-fourth of the market share would have a balance sheet of about Rs40 lakh crore, 23,000 physical branches and 22,000 ATMs, Khara said. Post-merger, a shareholder will get 28 shares of SBI for every 10 shares of State Bank of Bikaner and Jaipur (SBBJ). The legal entity of the associate banks will cease to exist from the effective date of merger. State Bank of India shares closed at Rs270.40, up 0.65% on the BSE. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


Automobile major Maruti Suzuki India on Wednesday launched its multi-purpose vehicle (MPV) Ertiga Limited Edition priced between Rs7.85 lakh and Rs8.10 lakh (ex-showroom, New Delhi). "The all-new features of Ertiga Limited Edition highlight the company's focus on building a customer connect through product differentiation while creating delight," RS Kalsi, Executive Director Marketing and Sales, Maruti Suzuki India, was quoted as saying in a statement. The company has sold over three lakh Ertiga MPV since its launch in 2012. Maruti Suzuki India shares closed at Rs6,027.05, up 2.84% on the BSE. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


Continuing with the revival in exports for the fifth month in a row, Indian merchandise shipments overseas at $22.12 billion in January 2017 registered an uptick of 4.32% over the $21.20 billion exported in January 2015, official data showed on Wednesday. Imports during the month in consideration at $31.96 billion also marked an increase of 10.70% over the $28.87 billion worth of imports in January last year. Consequently, the trade deficit in January was higher at $9.84 billion, as compared to the deficit of $7.67 billion during same month of 2016. "The growth in exports is positive for USA (2.63%), EU (5.47%) and Japan (13.43%), but China has exhibited negative growth of (-1.51%) for November 2016 over the corresponding period of previous year as per latest WTO statistics," a Commerce Ministry release here said.  Cumulatively for the April-January period, exports rose marginally by 1.09% in dollar terms at $220.9 billion, as against exports of $218.5 billion over the same period last year. "Non-petroleum exports in January 2017 were valued at $19.42 billion against $19.11 billion in January 2016, an increase of 1.6%," a statement here said. Cumulative imports for April-January were worth more than $307.3 billion, which was a 5.81 per cent fall from the over $326.3 billion worth imports recorded for the same period of the previous fiscal. With global oil prices climbing back to nearly $55 a barrel, India's oil imports during January were valued at $8.14 billion, which was a massive 61.07% jump over oil imports valued at $5.05 billion in the corresponding month of 2016. Non-oil imports in January were static, increasing by 0.01% to $23.82 billion, from $23.81 billion in the same month of last year. The merchandise trade deficit cumulatively for April-January, however, declined by 19.82% to $86.39 billion, as against $107.7 billion in the same period of 2015-16. As per Reserve Bank of India data on Wednesday, services exports during December 2016 were valued at $13.80 billion, while imports stood at 8.29 billion, resulting in a positive trade balance of $5.5 billion. Export oriented companies are likely to maintain their bullish trend on the stock exchange.

Tata Steel workers in the UK on Wednesday voted robustly in favour of accepting steel producer's proposal on pensions, jobs, investment and production. As many as 72.1% of the members who turned out for votes from Community and 75.6% from Unite and 74% of the third union, GMB, voted for the rescue plan. "This result provides a mandate from our members to move forward in our discussions with Tata and find a sustainable solution for the British Steel Pension Scheme (BSPS)," said Roy Rickhuss, General Secretary of Community. "Steel workers have taken a tough decision and have shown they are determined to safeguard jobs and secure the long-term future of steelmaking. Nobody wanted to be in this situation, but as we have always said, it is vital that we now work together to protect the benefits already accrued and prevent the BSPS from free-falling into the PPF," he added. Tata Steel shares closed at Rs469.80, up 2.11% on the BSE. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


The top gainers and top losers of the major indices are given in the table below:
 
Top Gainer (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)


The closing values of the major Asian indices are given in the table below:The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
Asian Indices (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)