Wednesday, 17 August 2016

Empower state-run banks' boards, cut government control: Rajan-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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17Th Aug 2016

Outgoing Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Raghuram Rajan on Tuesday suggested empowering of boards of state-run banks while making the case for a major reduction in government and regulatory oversight, including by the RBI itself.

"Today, a variety of authorities -- parliament, the Department of Financial Services, the Bank Board Bureau, the board of the bank, the vigilance authorities, and of course various regulators and supervisors, including the RBI -- monitor the performance of the public sector banks," Rajan said in his address here at the FICCI-IBA Annual Global Banking Conference.

"With so many overlapping constituencies to satisfy, it is a wonder that bank management has time to devote to the management of the bank," he said.

Proposing withdrawal of RBI nominees from the boards of public sector banks, Rajan stressed the need to reduce the overlaps between the jurisdictions of the authorities, while specifying "clear triggers or situations" where one authority's oversight is invoked.

He said agencies like the Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG) and Central Vigilance Commission (CVC) should only get involved in extraordinary situations where there is evidence of malfeasance, and not when legitimate business judgment has gone wrong.

"It is important that bank boards be freed to determine their strategies. Too much coaching by central authorities will lead to a sameness in public sector banks," the Governor said.

"Over time, RBI should also empower boards more, for instance, offering broad guidelines on compensation to boards but not requiring every top compensation package be approved," he said.

"Though the most pressing task for public sector banks is to clean up their balance sheets, a process which is well underway, a parallel task is to improve their governance and management." The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

"Over time, as the bank boards are professionalised, executive appointment decisions should devolve from the Bank Board Bureau (BBB) to the boards themselves, while the BBB, as it transforms into the Bank Investment Company (BIC), which is the custodian for the government's stake in banks, should focus only on appointing directors to represent the government stake on the bank boards," he added. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Rajan, whose tenure ends in early September, also voiced concern over state-run banks shunning project loans, saying they should tap their large low-cost deposits from "casa" or current account saving accounts deposits to finance infrastructure projects.

He said that since the crisis in the infrastructure space, banks are shunning project loans and are aggressively targeting retail borrowers. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


"There are inputs to making profitable project loans such as the availability of casa deposits that will be accrued to the banks that build out their IT to access and serve the broader saver cheaply and effectively," Rajan said.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Nifty, Sensex directionless – Wednesday closing report-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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17Th Aug 2016

I had mentioned in Tuesday’s closing report that Nifty, Sensex were in no man’s land. The major indices of the stock exchanges were range-bound on Wednesday and closed with small losses over Tuesday’s close. Investors were cautious and the trading volumes on NSE were also on the lower side. The trends of the major indices in the course of Wednesday’s trading are given in the table below: The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
Major Indices (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

India Vix closed at 14.78, up 4.21%. NSE turnover was at 94.16 crore.
Negative global cues, along with profit booking, subdued the Indian equity markets during the mid-afternoon trade session on Wednesday. Heavy selling pressure was witnessed in information technology (IT) and technology, media and entertainment (TECK) stocks. Auto and aviation stocks showed some strength and traded with firm sentiments, pointed out market analysts. Sugar stocks traded down on the lack of buying interest. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


Reliance Brands, a part of the Mukesh Ambani-led industrial group, has entered into a master franchise pact with the premium Dutch youth fashion company, Scotch and Soda, to set up its stores in all major Indian cities by next year. "Reliance will also grow the brand through other channels of sale in India, such as ecommerce, travel commerce, and leading multi-brand department stores," the company said, adding the range will cover menswear, womenswear and children’s wear categories through all channels of sale. Scotch and Soda has over 160 stores of their own globally, and can be found in over 8,000 other outlets, including the best global department stores, as also on their Web store. The merchandise is designed at their church-turned-studio in the heart of Amsterdam. Reliance Industries shares closed at Rs1,014.00, down 1% on the BSE on Wednesday. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Cable maker CMI Ltd. said on Tuesday its revenues in the quarter ended June grew 69.9% to Rs77.01 crore from Rs45.32 crore in the corresponding quarter of the previous year. Profit after tax was Rs5.50 crore in April-June 2016 against Rs2.83 crore in the first quarter in the last fiscal, a growth of 93.8%, said a statement issued by the BSE-listed CMI Ltd. The profit after tax grew 3.36% on a quarter-on-quarter basis over Rs5.32 crore recorded in the quarter ended March 2016. The earning per share was Rs3.86 in the quarter ended June, up from Rs2.44 in the first quarter of 2015-16. The company announced in April the start of production at its new facility in Baddi in Himachal Pradesh, which is part of the recently-acquired General Cable Energy Private Ltd from General Cable Corporation. CMI shares closed at Rs182.90, up 4.04% on the BSE.

In view of the high prices of pulses both in the wholesale and retail markets in the country, the Centre on Tuesday decided to import about 20,000 tonnes of 'chana dal' and 80,000 tonnes of 'masoor' dal to strengthen its buffer stock. A decision to import these dals was taken at a meeting of an inter-ministerial committee, headed by Consumer Affairs Secretary Hem Pande, an official source said. "The government has decided to import further 20,000 tonnes of chana and 80,000 tonnes of masoor to strengthen buffer stock," a Food Ministry statement said after the committee meeting. The meeting discussed about an "alternate mechanism" for the release of pulses from the buffer stock at an appropriate time for effective market intervention if sufficient quantity is not lifted by the states, official sources said. This is likely to rein in inflation in the Indian economy and improve the underlying bullish trend in the Indian stock market.

Oil prices rallied for a fourth straight session on Tuesday, amid speculation that the talks of Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries next month could result in a crude output freeze. This is likely to set the major indices in the Indian stock markets on a bullish trend.

The top gainers and top losers of the major indices are given in the table below:
 
Top Gainer (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)
The closing values of the major Asian indices are given in the table below:The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
Asian Indices (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

Tuesday, 16 August 2016

Nifty, Sensex in no man’s land – Tuesday closing report-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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16Th Aug 2016

I had mentioned in Friday’s closing report that Nifty, Sensex were still on an uptrend but risks were also rising.  The major indices of the Indian stock markets were range-bound on Tuesday and closed with small losses over Friday’s close. The stock markets were closed for trading on Monday. The trends of the major indices in the course of Tuesday’s trading are given in the table below:



Major Indices (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)
Negative global cues depressed the Indian equity markets on Tuesday. Consequently, both the key equity indices closed in the red, as selling pressure was witnessed in IT (information technology) and automobile stocks. The BSE market breadth was tilted in favour of the bears -- with 1,634 declines and 1,095 advances. On the NSE, on Tuesday, there were 604 advances, 988 declines and 68 unchanged.

Consumer goods company Unilever on Tuesday announced the acquisition of air purifying solutions company Blueair for an undisclosed sum. "Blueair will be geared to help potentially billions of people rather than millions to create safer, healthier indoor environments as air pollution rises worldwide," said Bengt Rittri, Founder, Blueair, in a statement. According to a recent World Health Organisation (WHO) report, air pollution is now the world's largest single environmental health risk that "Killed around seven million people in 2012 alone,” Rittri added. Blueair will continue to operate under its existing brand name in all its markets, including India, Sweden, China, the US, Japan and South Korea. Hindustan Unilever shares closed at Rs921.65, down 0.97% on the BSE. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Cipla announced an improvement of around 200 basis points in base business EBITDA (earnings before interest, depreciation and taxes) margin. The recent acquisitions of InvaGen Pharmaceuticals Inc. and Exelan Pharmaceuticals Inc. are EBITDA margin-accretive at a consolidated level with the integration plans progressing smoothly, Cipla said in a press release. The company’s consolidated EBITDA margin stood at 17% for the quarter ended June 30, 2016 (Q1FY17) against 6.7% in March quarter. Cipla shares closed at Rs553.55, up 7.14% on the BSE. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

India's annual rate of inflation based on wholesale prices shot up to 3.55% for July from 1.62% in the previous month, due to an 11.82% jump in prices of food articles, official data showed on Tuesday. The prices of potatoes continued to pinch with an annual rise of 58.78%, pulses were dearer by 35.76%, while fruit were 17.30% costlier over the same month of the previous year, as per the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) data of the Commerce Ministry. Data released last week showed that the country's annual retail inflation shot up to a 23-month high of 6.07% for July and beyond the official tolerance level of 6%, again due to higher prices for food articles. The July WPI index at 3.55% marks a two-year high. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Global software major Infosys Ltd. will soon lay off about 3,000 techies since the Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) has cancelled the contract for setting up a new bank (Williams & Glyn). "Subsequent to this (RBS) decision, we will carry out an orderly ramp-down of about 3,000 persons, primarily in India, over the next few months," the city-based IT major disclosed on its website but did not share details with the media. Infosys shares closed at Rs1,050.95, down 1.16% on the BSE.

US stocks rallied on Monday, with all three major indices setting new closing records, as investors focused on a rebound in oil prices while waiting for the minutes of the US Federal Reserve. Oil prices kept rising on Monday, with both US oil and Brent crude jumping nearly 3%, as speculation intensified about potential producer action to support prices in an oversupplied market. Investors were also waiting for the minutes of the Fed's July policy meeting scheduled for release on Wednesday, for more indications on the timing of the next interest rate hike.

The top gainers and top losers of the major indices are given in the table below:
 
Top Gainer (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)


The closing values of the major Asian indices are given in the table below: The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
Asian Indices (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

Infosys to sack 3,000 techies as Scottish bank cancels deal -The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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16Th Aug 2016

Global software major Infosys Ltd. will soon lay off about 3,000 techies since the Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) has cancelled the contract for setting up a new bank (Williams & Glyn).

"Subsequent to this (RBS) decision, we will carry out an orderly ramp-down of about 3,000 persons, primarily in India, over the next few months," the city-based IT major disclosed on its website but did not share details with the media.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


The Edinburgh-based RBS announced last week that it would no longer pursue its plan to separate and list a new UK (British) standalone bank (W&G) and instead pursue other options for the divestment of its business. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

"We have been a W&G programme technology partner for consulting, application delivery and testing services," the IT outsourcing company said on its website.


According to company sources here on Tuesday, RBS signed a five-year multi-million dollar contract with Infosys and the US-based software major IBM for providing IT services to its proposed W&G bank. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Global Markets & News-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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16Th Aug 2016

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU16 -0.13%) are down -0.11% and European stocks are down -0.73% on profit taking from the recent rally. The S&P 500 on Monday had climbed to a record high and the Euro Stoxx 50 rose to a 2-1/2 month high on optimism over the economic outlook. A rally in EUR/USD to a 7-week high has undercut European exporters, such as automakers, while European stocks were also pressured after the German ZEW investor confidence rose less than expected. Stock losses were contained as energy producing companies gained with the price of crude oil up +0.55% at a 4-week high. Asian stocks settled lower: Japan -1.62%, Hong Kong -0.09%, China -0.49%, Taiwan -0.42%, Australia -0.14%, Singapore -0.29%, South Korea -0.01%, India -0.31%. China's Shanghai Composite retreated from a 7-month high and closed lower on long liquidation and Japan's Nikkei Stock Index closed lower as exporter stocks sold-off after USD/JPY tumbled to a 7-week low.
The dollar index (DXY00 -1.02%) is down -0.91% at a 7-week low as the prospects for a Fed rate hike this year remains subdued. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.85% at a 7-week high. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -1.22% at a 7-week low.
Sep T-note prices (ZNU16 +0.15%) are up +7.5 ticks.
The German Aug ZEW survey expectations of economic growth rose +7.3 to 0.5, weaker than expectations of +8.8 to 2.0. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Jul housing starts (expected -1.1% to 1.176 million, Jun +4.8% to 1.189 million) and Jul building permits (expected +0.6% to 1.160 million, Jun +1.5% to 1.153 million), (2) Jul CPI (expected unch m/m and +0.9% y/y, Jun +0.2% m/m and +1.0% y/y) and Jul CPI ex food & energy (expected +0.2% m/m and +2.3% y/y, Jun +0.2% m/m and +2.3% y/y), (3) Jul industrial production (expected +0.3%, Jun +0.6%), (4) Jul manufacturing production (expected +0.3%, Jun +0.4%), (5) Jul capacity utilization (expected +0.2 to 75.6%, Jun +0.5 to 75.4%), (6) Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart (non-voter) speaks to the Rotary Club of Knoxville, TN.
S&P 500 companies that report earnings today: Home Depot (consensus $1.97), Advance Auto Parts expected $2.11, TJ Cos. expected 81 cents, Urban Outfitters expected 55 cents.

U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: none.
Equity conferences this week: Nomura Media, Telecom & Internet Conference on Tue, EnerCom The Oil & Gas Conference on Tue, Wedbush PacGrow Health Care Conference on Tue-Wed, Barclays California MedTools Summit on Wed, Barclays Kohler Utility Mini-Conference on Thu. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

JPMorgan Chase (JPM +0.61%) was downgraded to 'Market Perform' from 'Outperform' at Bernstein.
PG&E (PCG -1.04%) slid 1% in after-hours trading after it started a 4.9 million-share offering.
Vipshop Holdings Ltd (VIPS +3.16%) gained 3% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 net revenue of $2.02 billion, higher than consensus of $1.9 billion.
Praxair PX jumped nearly 7% in European trading after people familiar with the matter said the company has held talks on a possible merger with Linde AG.
Concho Resources (CXO +2.03%) fell nearly 2% in after-hours trading after it began an offering of 9.0 million shares to finance part of its purchase of land acquired in the Midland Basin from Reliance Energy.
Fabrinet (FN +4.21%) rallied over 4% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 revenue of $276.4 million, above consensus of $262.8 million, and said it sees Q1 adjusted EPS of 70 cents-72 cents, higher than consensus of 60 cents.
Aratana Therapeutics (PETX -0.84%) rose 4% in after-hours trading after it said the U.S. FDA approved its Nocita as a local post-operative analgesia for cranial cruciate ligament surgery in dogs.
Shopify (SHOP -0.76%) lost 3% in after-hours trading after it said it will offer 7.5 million Class A subordinate voting shares.
Imprimis Pharmaceuticals (IMMY +0.78%) climbed over 2% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 revenue of $4.91 million, above $4.38 million from Q1 and $1.97 million y/y.
Golub Capital BDC (GBDC +0.97%) fell nearly 3% in after-hours trading after it set a 1.75 million share secondary offering via Wells Fargo.
Hain Celestial Group (HAIN -3.52%) plunged 24% in pre-market trading after it said it will delay its Q4 and fiscal 2016 financial results as it evaluates whether revenue tied to concessions granted to certain U.S. distributors was accounted for in the correct period.
Asterias Biotherapeutics (AST +3.00%) jumped 9% in after-hours trading after it said it will expand the "SCiSTAR" study with two additional cohorts of 5-8 patients each with sensory incomplete injuries. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

MARKET COMMENTS

Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU16 -0.13%) this morning are down -2.50 points (-0.11%). Monday's closes: S&P 500 +0.28%, Dow Jones +0.32%, Nasdaq +0.42%. The S&P 500 on Monday rallied to a fresh record high and closed higher due to strength in energy producing stocks as the price of crude oil rose +2.81% to a 3-week high and increased M&A activity after Mid-America Apartment Communities agreed to buy Post Properties for $3.9 billion and Xylem agreed to purchase Sensus for about $1.7 billion. A negative factor for stocks was the unexpected -4.76 point decline in the U.S. Aug Empire manufacturing survey to -4.21, weaker than expectations of +1.45 to 2.00.
Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU16 +0.15%) this morning are up +7.5 ticks. Monday's closes: TYU6 -9.00, FVU6 -4.75. Sep T-notes on Monday closed lower on reduced safe-haven demand after the S&P 500 rallied to a new all-time high and after crude oil prices rose to a 3-week high, which boosted inflation expectations.
The dollar index (DXY00 -1.02%) this morning down -0.874 (-0.91%) at a 7-week low. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0095 (+0.85%) at a 7-week high. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -1.24 (-1.22%) at a 7-week low. Monday's closes: Dollar index -0.093 (-0.10%), EUR/USD +0.0022 (+0.20%), USD/JPY-0.04 (-0.04%). The dollar index on Monday closed lower on a the weaker-than-expected U.S. Aug Empire manufacturing index, which bolsters the case for the Fed to refrain from raising interest rates, and after EUR/USD rallied when the Bundesbank said in its monthly report that it expects solid German Q3 economic growth.
Sep WTI crude oil (CLU16 +0.42%) this morning is up +25 cents (+0.55%) at a 4-week high and Sep gasoline (RBU16 +0.84%) is up +0.0133 (+0.95%) at a 4-week high. Monday's closes: CLU6 +1.25 (+2.81%), RBU6 +0.0260 (+1.90%). Sep crude oil and gasoline on Monday closed higher with Sep crude at a 3-week high due to a a weaker dollar and comments from Russian Energy Minister Novak who said that Russia is open to cooperation with OPEC to help stabilize the oil market. Another supportive factor for crude prices was the rally in the S&P 500 to a new record high, which bolsters confidence in the economic outlook and energy demand.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Now India's wholesale inflation shoots up on steep food prices-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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16Th Aug 2016

India's annual rate of inflation based on wholesale prices shot up to 3.55% for July from 1.62% in the previous month, due to an 11.82% jump in prices of food articles, official data showed on Tuesday. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The prices of potatoes continued to pinch with an annual rise of 58.78%, pulses were dearer by 35.76%, while fruits were 17.30% costlier over the same month month of the previous year, as per Wholesale Price Index data of the Commerce Ministry. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


Data released last week showed that the country's annual retail inflation shot up to a 23-month high of 6.07% and beyond the official tolerance level of 6% for July, again due to higher prices for food articles. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Industrial activity remains weak with contracting growth in past six months-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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16Th Aug 2016
IIP (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions) 


Industrial activity (IIP) grew by 2.1% YoY (year-on-year) in June 2016 and it was slightly better than 1.1% growth in May 2016. When analysed on trend basis, industrial activity remained weak with contracting growth in the past 56 months. Weakness was concentrated in capital goods, which contracted in double digits for the seventh straight month, according to an Edelweiss research note on the economy. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


On consumption goods front, nondurables continued to decline for the 12th straight month. Durables, however, continued to expand at a healthy pace of 8% YoY. Twowheelers, air conditioners, tyres and gems & jewellery were some of the goods that recorded good growth. Edelweiss expects industrial activity to pick up owing to improved domestic liquidity conditions, higher government spending, good monsoon, and stabilisation of exports.  

The following table and chart capture the position in industrial activity in India:



While industrial activity summarises the supplier’s position in the Indian economy, inflation summarises the consumer’s position. CPI (consumer price index) inflation in July came in at 6.1% YoY. In the past four months, CPI has been inching higher primarily led by food  prices  –  pulses  and  vegetables  –  even  as  core  remained  largely stable.  Excluding these few items, headline CPI remained under 5%. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


On the agricultural front, FY16-17 could see a bumper Kharif output. Besides, the international food prices have reversed course in the past few weeks after the sharp rise since March 2016. This augurs well for food inflation in the next few months. Edelweiss feels that in the next 6 months or so, headline CPI inflation could head back towards 5% levels or even below.  

With regards to monetary easing, Edelweiss expects the central bank to cut rates by 50bps in FY17. However, easy liquidity accompanied by falling global bond yields (both emerging markets and Developed markets) could result in much more cooling of 10year GSec and lending rates. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


The following table and chart capture the position on inflation in the Indian economy in the current context: The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions