Tuesday, 3 January 2017

Send 40% currency to rural areas, RBI tells banks -The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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3January 2017

The RBI on Tuesday said the supply of currency notes in rural areas was not adequate and asked banks to send at least 40 per cent of the supply to their rural branches. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

"The bank notes, being supplied to rural areas, at present, are not commensurate with the requirements of the rural population," the Reserve Bank of India said in a notification. 

With a view to ensure that at least 40 per cent bank notes were supplied to rural areas, the banks were advised to increase the issue of currency towards the main channels of distribution in these areas.

"Banks should advise their currency chests to step up issuance of fresh notes to rural branches of Regional Rural Banks (RRBs), District Central Cooperative Banks (DCCBs) and commercial banks, white label ATMs and post offices on priority basis which are considered main rural channels of distribution," it said.

RBI asked the banks to issue notes in denominations of Rs 500 and below in rural areas with liberal issuance of existing stock of notes below Rs 100. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

It also asked the bank chests to obtain supply of coins on priority basis and if required even get it issued from the central bank. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

As the rural requirements could vary depending on variations in the rural and urban mix of each district, a certain percentage of allocation has been assigned to each district by RBI to facilitate a need based approach. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


"The indicated proportion may be maintained on weekly average basis at each chest level as it may be difficult to stick to the proportion on daily basis," RBI said.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Demonetisation May Derail Cement Sector Growth, says Ind-Ra -The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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3 January 2017

Cement Sector (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

Demonetisation is likely to derail the growth of the cement sector, with small and medium cement manufacturers feeling the heat, says India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra).

Ind-Ra expects the credit profile of pan India cement players and strong regional players to remain stable. However, the credit profile of small and medium cement companies with high debt levels will come under stress in the next two quarters. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The ratings agency feels that the impact of demonetisation will flow to the economy mainly through the real estate/construction sector, which has strong linkages with sectors such as cement and steel and they will turn credit negative in the short-run. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Ind-Ra expects that post demonetisation, demand from the housing sector, which contributes around 65% to cement demand, is likely to decline. The demand from individual home builders, which mainly consists of farmers, is expected to increase in FY16-17 due to a good monsoon. However, post demonetisation, Ind-Ra expects that cash availability with individual home builders will also be limited.

Cement production is likely to grow by around 4% in FY16-17 as against Ind-Ra's earlier estimate of 4%-6%. The lower cement output for the year is expected to be due to the fall in production in November-December 2016. Cement production has grown by 4.3% during April-November 2016 and recorded a growth of 0.5% in November 2016. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Post demonetisation, Ind-Ra says all India volumes declined in the range of 20%-25% in November-December 2016, while pan-India realisations have declined Rs15 to Rs20 per bag in the same period.

Pet coke, which is a key raw material for the sector, has shown an upward movement in prices to around $60-$70 per tonne from $40 per tonne at the beginning of the financial year. "The rise in pet coke prices coupled with increase in diesel prices is likely to increase power, fuel and freight costs for companies. The higher input cost and lower demand is expected to limit the ability of cement manufacturers to pass on the higher prices to the end consumers, thus potentially squeezing margins," the ratings agency says.


Ind-Ra believes that the working capital cycle for cement companies is likely to increase as most cement companies are net working capital negative, due to the likely additional credit given to dealers as most dealers have shifted to digital payments.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Nifty, Sensex in a resistance zone – Tuesday closing report-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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3 January 2017

I had mentioned yesterday that Nifty, Sensex may give up some of the recent gains. The key indices opened with losses and closed marginally in the green, as buying was witnessed in consumer durables, oil and gas, and banking stocks. The wider 51-scrip Nifty of the National Stock Exchange (NSE) inched up by 12.75 points or 0.16 per cent to 8,192.25 points. The Sensex touched a high of 26,724.40 points and a low of 26,488.37 points during the intra-day trade. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The trends of the major indices in the course of Tuesday’s trading are given in the table below:


Major Indices (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)
The BSE market breadth was tilted in favour of the bulls - with 1,839 advances and 921 declines. In the broader market, the S&P BSE 500 closed 47 points higher at 11,119. S&P BSE MidCap eclipsed equity benchmark Sensex to close 73 points higher at 12,205.13 while S&P BSE SmallCap gained 125 points to close at 12,315.16. In sectoral space, oil & gas stocks gained the most followed by energy stocks, whereas telecom stocks bled the most. Banking stocks pared losses today after yesterday's weakness due to lending rate cut. 

The iron ore prices w.e.f. January 3 have been fixed at Rs 2225/WMT for Lump ore; while at Rs 1985/WMT for Fines. The prices exclude Royalty, DMF, NMET, cess and Forest Permit fee. NMDC, a state controlled mining company was up 1.5% after the company increased its Lump ore prices. Indian Oil Corporation gained around 6%, hitting its 52-week high, while HPCL and BPCL ended 3.71% and 2.96% respectively. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Meanwhile, Indian bonds rallied, with yields falling to the lowest levels in nearly a month, after the government reduced the amount of bond sales in January and February after a recent surge in inflows into a government-run deposits scheme. Government will present on February 1 its budget for the 2017/18 financial year starting on April 1, a senior government official said today.

The top gainers and top losers of the major indices are given in the table below:

Top Gainer (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)
European markets opened higher. Most Asian indices ended higher today, led by gains in mining and metal stocks, after data showed Chinese manufacturing sector expanded faster than expected in December. China's Shanghai Composite and Hong Kong's Hang Seng index also added 1% and 0.6%, respectively, while Japan was closed for an extended New Year holiday. Oil and gas producers also rose tracking gains in prices of crude oil, as the decision by Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and non-OPEC members to cut crude output came into effect from Jan 1. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


The closing values of the major Asian indices are given in the table below:The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
Asian Indices (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

Monday, 2 January 2017

See normalcy in banking system by February-end: SBI Chairperson -The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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2 January 2017

After a New Year gift of 0.9 percentage point cut in lending rates, State Bank of India (SBI) Chairperson Arundhati Bhattacharya on Monday said she saw normalcy return to the banking system by end-February or March, with uptake in credit growth. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Her reference was to the events following the demonetisation of Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 currency notes, which put enormous pressure on commercial banks in servicing people for exchanging or depositing the old currency. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The chairperson said banks, indeed, have huge low-cost funds driven by deposits following the demonetisation drive. This, she felt, will flow out. "But we expect 40 per cent of that to stay with the bank," she added. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

"At that time, we will have a relook at the deposit rates." The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Referring to the rate cut announced on Sunday, Bhattacharya said: "This is a liquidity-driven rate cut. The liquidity in the system in unprecedented, in terms of the fact that what we did in the first nine months of the year, we have done one-and-half times that in 30 days." The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


At the same time, this excess liquidity was marked by a lower credit growth. "But we want to give a very clear signal that we are open for business. There is demand in the economy and there should not be any uncertainty on this."The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Demonetisation provokes manufacturing decline in December: PMI-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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2 January 2017

The government's demonetisation move provoked a downturn in Indian manufacturing growth in December, the first such contraction in a year, as per key macro-economic data.

According to the Nikkei Markit India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) -- a composite indicator of manufacturing performance -- the withdrawal of high-value banknotes has reportedly hit new business orders and factory output in December, with companies signalling fewer amounts of new orders, buying levels and output.

The index fell to 49.6 in December, from 52.3 in November, which marked the biggest month-on-month decline in the index since November 2008 when the global economy had slipped into a severe downturn following the financial market crash in the US.

An index reading of above 50 indicates an overall increase in economic activity, and below 50 an overall decrease. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

"Having held its ground in November, following the unexpected withdrawal of Rs 500 and 1,000 bank notes from circulation, India's manufacturing industry slid into contraction at the end of 2016," Pollyanna De Lima, Economist at IHS Markit and author of the report said in a statement.

"Cash flow issues among firms also led to reductions in purchasing activity and employment," she said. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

De Lima elaborated that surveyed companies widely blamed the scrapping of high-value currency for the downturn. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

"Cash shortage in the economy reportedly resulted in fewer levels of new orders received," the statement said. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

"Concurrently, manufacturers lowered output accordingly," it added. 

Though December saw a decline in manufacturing output, the average figure for the third quarter was above the 50 level, the report said. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

"Nevertheless, the average over the October-December quarter (52.1) was broadly in line with that seen in the July-September period (52.2)," it said. 

According to the survey, cash shortages and lower workplace activity resulted in job shedding and falling buying levels during December. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Higher prices paid for a range of raw materials led average cost burdens to increase for the 15th straight month in December, with the rate of inflation picking up since November.


"With the window for exchanging notes having closed at the end of December, January data will be key in showing whether the sector will see a quick rebound," De Lima said.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Dissatisfied customers can demand service charge not be levied: Government The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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2 January 2017

Customers dissatisfied with service at any hotel or restaurant can opt to seek that service charge not be levied, as this is optional or discretionary as per the Consumer Protection Act, an official statement said on Monday. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The Department of Consumer Affairs, in a statement, also asked state governments to advise hotels and restaurants to disseminate information, such as through displays, that "the service charges are discretionary or voluntary". The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The department said that it received complaints from consumers that many hotels and restaurants charged "service charge in the range of 5-20 per cent, in lieu of tips" and consumers were "forced to pay irrespective of the kind of service provided". The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

A clarification was sought from the Hotel Association of India, which replied that the "service charge is completely discretionary and should a customer be dissatisfied with the dining experience, they can have it waived off", as per the department. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


The department have also asked the state governments to sensitise the companies, hotels and restaurants regarding provisions of the Act.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

SBI cuts cost of lending rate by 0.9% across maturities -The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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2 January 2017

With major infusion of fresh liquidity arising from the demonetisation measure, state-run State Bank of India said on Sunday it had cut its lending rates by 90 basis points for maturities ranging from overnight to three-year tenures, after experiencing a surge in deposits.

The country's largest lender cut its marginal cost of funds-based lending rates (MCLR) effective from New Year's Day in response to a surge in deposits post the demonetisation of high value currency on November 8. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

For loans of overnight tenure, the new MCLR will be 7.75 per cent, instead of 8.65 per cent. One-month tenure will attract a rate of 7.85 per cent, while those for three and six months will be 7.90 and 7.95 per cent, respectively. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

For one year, the new MCLR will be 8 per cent. The bank will levy interest rate of 8.10 per cent and 8.15 per cent for two years and three years, respectively.

Lending rates were lowered also across other maturities, effective from Sunday.

According to estimates, banks have collected cash deposits of over Rs 14.9 lakh crore following Prime Minister Narendra Modi's November 8 announcement, demonetising Rs 1,000 and Rs 500 notes to eliminate black money, counterfeit notes and terror financing.A

The SBI move also comes after Prime Minister Narendra Modi in his address to the nation on Saturday asked banks to "keep the poor, the lower middle class, and the middle class at the focus of their activities," and to act with "public interest" in mind.

State-owned IDBI Bank has also cut in its MCLR by 30-60 basis points (bps) effective Sunday.

The bank said it has effectively reduced MCLR by 30 bps to 60 bps across various tenures since April 2016. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Similarly, state-run Punjab National Bank also slashed its lending rates across maturities ranging from overnight to five years with the new rates effective from Sunday. 

For loans of overnight tenure, the new MCLR will be 8.20 per cent, instead of 8.90 per cent. One-month tenure will attract a revised rate of 8.25 per cent, while those for three and six months will be 8.35 percent and 8.40 per cent respectively. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The lender cut down lending rates for the tenure of one year, three years and five years loans to 8.45 percent, 8.60 percent and 8.75 percent respectively. 

Under the MCLR, banks need to consider their marginal cost of funds, or the cost incurred on incremental deposits across different maturities, to decide on interest rates.

Private sector Axis Bank cut its MCLR in November by 0.15-0.20 per cent

Following the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cutting its repo rate by 25 bps in October, public sector lenders -- the United Bank of India, Canara Bank, Indian Bank, Indian Overseas Bank, Bank of India and the Syndicate Bank -- as well as the private sector ICICI and Kotak Mahindra banks have cut lending rates. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

To nudge banks to transfer the benefit of RBI rate cuts, previous Governor Raghuram Rajan had announced a shift to the MCLR regime, under which banks need to consider their marginal cost of funds, or the cost incurred on incremental deposits across different maturities, to decide on interest rates.

However, though Rajan -- during his tenure -- had cut rates by 150 bps since January 2015, banks had hardly moved at the same pace to cut their lending rates. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


From the state-run banks' point of view, their accumulation of massive non-performing assets (NPAs), or bad loans, that is impacting profitability, is keeping them from cutting rates.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Nifty, Sensex may give up some of the recent gains – Monday closing report-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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2 January 2017

Profit booking, coupled with a depreciating rupee and weak domestic macro-data pulled the Indian equities markets lower on Monday. The key indices closed marginally in the red, as selling pressure was witnessed in banking, finance and IT stocks. The 30-scrip Sensex of the BSE, which opened at 26,711.15 points, closed at 26,595.45 points - down 31.01 points or 0.12 per cent from the previous day's close at 26,626.46 points. The Sensex touched a high of 26,720.98 points and a low of 26,447.06 points during the intra-day trade. Nifty ended lower on Monday in the first trading session of 2017, snapping a four-session winning streak as banks fell on worries their profitability would be hit after reducing lending rates. The Nikkei India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index, or PMI, fell to 49.6 in December from November's 52.3. A level of 50 separates expansion from contraction. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The trends of the major indices in the course of Monday’s trading are given in the table below:
Major Indices (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

The BSE market breadth was tilted in favour of the bulls - with 1,842 advances and 817 declines. Out of 1,903 stocks traded on the NSE, 417 declined and 1,194 advanced on Monday. A total of 19 stocks registered a fresh 52-week high in trade on Monday, whereas 16 stocks touched a new 52-week low on the NSE. On Friday last week, the equity markets had closed up on the back of rupee appreciation, firm global cues and value buying. The India VIX (Volatility) index was up 2.36% at 15.83. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions 

In the broader market, the S&P BSE500 index closed 36 points higher at 11,072. In the midcap and smallcap segments, the S&P BSE Midcap index surpassed equity benchmark Sensex to settle 100 points higher at 12,131 while S&P BSE Smallcap index moved a step further to close 144 points higher at 12,190. The NSE bank index fell 1.14%, with State Bank of India, which cut its marginal cost of funds-based lending rate (MCLR) by 90 basis points across maturities, declining 2.6%. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The rupee opened nearly 3 paise down at 67.95 against dollar on the first day of Calendar 2017 following global cues. The rupee was trading down 16 paise at 68.07 per US dollar. The top gainers and top losers of the major indices are given in the table below:
 
Top Gainer (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

Asian markets closed flat. Japan’s Nikkei closed in red. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and China’s Shanghai Composite ended higher. Post a weak start, European indices rebounded and Germany's DAX index touched its highest level since August 2015. Trading volumes, though, were low as markets in the UK and several other countries were closed for New Year holidays. France's CAC-40 touched a 52-week high of 4879.24 points.


The closing values of the major Asian indices are given in the table below:The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
Asian Indices (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)