Thursday, 25 May 2017

Most World Stocks Rise After Fed Minutes; Oil Rally Fades-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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25 May 2017
world stock markets (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

Most world stock markets rose Thursday as investors assessed the Federal Reserve's latest meeting minutes, while crude oil's rally fizzled out ahead of an OPEC meeting on production.

KEEPING SCORE: Most European benchmarks climbed after an early wobble. France's CAC 40 added 0.3 percent to 5,354.57 but Germany's DAX slipped 0.1 percent to 12,631.83. Britain's FTSE 100 edged 0.1 percent higher to 7,521.88. Wall Street was poised to open higher a day after pushing into record territory. Dow futures gained 0.3 percent to 21,049.00 and broader S&P 500 futures added 0.2 percent to 2,407.10. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

FED IN FOCUS: According to the minutes from the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee on Wednesday, officials signaled that they would soon be ready to resume raising interest rates if economic data came in line with their expectations. They wanted more evidence that a recent slowdown in U.S. growth was "transitory before taking another step" to raise rates. They also discussed steps for shrinking the U.S. central bank's $4.5 trillion in bond holdings. The comments indicate policymakers are sticking to their plans to gradually remove the stimulus that has helped prop up stock markets for years.

ANALYST VIEWPOINT: "Although expectations of a rate hike in June were realized when Federal Reserve officials said it would 'soon be appropriate' to raise rates again, the longer-term hiking path remains clouded," said Lukman Otunuga, analyst at FXTM. "The prospect of a third U.S rate increase by the Federal Reserve in 2017 still remains under threat, especially when considering how Trump uncertainty still remains a major theme." The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

RATING REDUX: Investors in Asia shrugged off a Moody's one-notch downgrade of Hong Kong's credit rating shortly after it cut its China rating because of rising debt levels, citing tight links between the two places. Chinese markets appeared to be more focused on growing speculation that MSCI might include mainland Chinese shares to its benchmark next month.

ASIA'S DAY: The Nikkei 225 stock index in Tokyo climbed 0.4 percent to close at 19,813.13 and Hong Kong's Hang Seng rallied 0.8 percent to 25,630.78. South Korea's Kospi jumped 1 percent to 2,342.93 while the Shanghai Composite index gained 1.4 percent to 3,107.83. Australia's S&P ASX 200 rose 0.4 percent to 5,789.60. Shares were also higher in Taiwan and Southeast Asia.

ENERGY: Oil futures reversed earlier gains just ahead of a meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other nations to meet and discuss production. They are expected to extend last year's production cut in a concerted attempt to prevent oil prices from falling. Benchmark U.S. crude fell 10 cents to $51.26 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It lost 11 cents to settle at $51.36 per barrel on Wednesday. Brent crude, used to price international oils, climbed 11 cents to $54.85 a barrel in London. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


CURRENCIES: The dollar rose to 111.83 yen from 111.50 yen. The euro edged up to $1.1229 from $1.1119.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Wednesday, 24 May 2017

Nifty may find support at 9,400 – Wednesday closing report-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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24 May 2017

I had mentioned in Tuesday’s closing report that Nifty, Sensex were in a minor downtrend. The major indices of the Indian stock markets were range-bound on Wednesday and closed with minor losses over Tuesday’s close. The trends of the major indices in the course of Wednesday’s trading are given in the table below: The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
Major Indices (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

The Indian equity markets traded on a flat-to-negative note during the mid-afternoon trade session on Wednesday on the back of mixed global cues, skirmishes on the Indo-Pak border. Heavy selling pressure was seen in metal, healthcare and capital goods stocks. Besides, a flat rupee, coupled with caution ahead of derivatives expiry, capped gains. On the NSE, on Wednesday, there were 277 advances, 1,231 declines and 52 unchanged. On the BSE, on Wednesday, there were 685 advances, 2,037 declines and 147 unchanged. Overall, the market was bearish but there was resistance to a sell-off and falling indices. Oil-gas and aviation sector stocks were firm. Banking stocks traded with mixed sentiments on short covering, observed market analysts. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

China has received a downgrade on its credit rating, on worries about the future state of its economy from credit rating agency Moody's. Moody's brought down China's long-term local currency and foreign currency issuer ratings by one notch to A1 from Aa3. It also changed its outlook to stable from negative. Moody's said China's economy-wide debt levels were expected to increase further in the years ahead, with reforms only likely to slow the growth rate, a CNBC report added. The credit rating agency estimated the Chinese government debt burden to rise toward 40% of its GDP by 2018. With slowing GDP growth, the Chinese stock markets are likely to be less bullish in the medium term.

Software major Infosys Ltd has joined the Enterprise Ethereum Alliance for using Blockchain database across verticals, said the IT firm on Wednesday. "The alliance connects Fortune 500 enterprises, start-ups, academics and technology vendors with Ethereum, a decentralised platform that runs smart contracts," said the city-based company in a statement. Applications on the Ethereum platform run as programmed without downtime, censorship, fraud or third party interference. "The alliance will enable us to adopt Blockchain in enterprises across industries, including insurance, pharma, retail, energy, utilities and services sectors," said the company. As a distributed database, Blockchain maintains records in the form of blocks, which are secured from tampering and revision. Each block contains a timestamp and a link to a previous block.

The India-Pakistan dispute over Kashmir is a matter of concern, and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor may create further tension between the two countries and ignite political instability in the South Asia region, a UN report has said. The report released by the UN's Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (Escap) on Tuesday said instability in Afghanistan could limit the potential benefits of transit corridors to population centres near Kabul or Kandahar, Dawn online reported. This is one more input to analysts who have been closely watching the deteriorating India-Pakistan relations and its impact on the Indian stock markets. A bad relationship could imply a sharp correction in the major indices in the Indian stock markets. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Reliance Infrastructure (RInfra) on Wednesday said that RInfra InvIT has received the final approval from securities market regulator SEBI to float its Rs2,500 crore plus Initial Public Offering (IPO). Sources told IANS that the proposed IPO is expected to be launched in two weeks' time. "RInfra InvIT has received the final observation letter from SEBI for its proposed IPO of units representing an undivided beneficial interest in the Trust. The proposed issue size is Rs25,000 million with an option to retain over subscription up to 25% of the issue size," the company said in a statement. Reliance Infrastructure’s shares closed at Rs493.55, down 6.46% on the BSE. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The central government's ambitious crop insurance scheme for farmers -- Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana -- has put pressure on states even though it succeeded in expanding the farm insurance coverage 50% in a year since its launch. A senior Agriculture Ministry official said some of the states have complained they have ended up paying up to half of their budgetary allocations for agriculture sector for premiums to insurance companies, creating a pressure on the coffers and existing infrastructure. Under PMFBY, launched in January 2016, farmers have to pay just 2% of the sum insured for Kharif crops, 1.5% for Rabi crops and 5% for horticulture and commercial crops, while the central and state government pay the remaining amount equally.  "Last year, about 20% of farmers in the country had opted for crop insurance. However, PMFBY has led to the coverage to increase to 30%. The Centre paid Rs13,500 this year. As states have to share 50% of government share, they had to divert major share of agriculture funds to pay premium for PMFBY," said the official, requesting anonymity. Also, India stood eighth till last year in terms of volume of crop insurance. However, the country jumped to third position after PMFBY. These measures could again increase aggregate demand in the Indian economy from the greater purchasing power of farmers, and the Indian stock markets could be selectively bullish in the medium term. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The top gainers and top losers of the major indices are given in the table below:
 
Top Gainer (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

The closing values of the major Asian indices are given in the table below: The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
Asian Indices (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

Moody's Cuts China Credit Rating Over Rising Debt -The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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24 May 2017
 
China's credit rating (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions) 
Moody's Investors Services on Wednesday downgraded China's credit rating to A1 from Aa3 citing concerns about the country's growing debt, for the first such rating downgrade by the American agency in twenty five years. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

"Moody's expects that economy-wide leverage will increase further over the coming years. The planned reform programme is likely to slow, but not prevent, the rise in leverage," Moody's said in a statement here. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

"The importance the authorities attach to maintaining robust growth will result in sustained policy stimulus, given the growing structural impediments to achieving current growth targets. Such stimulus will contribute to rising debt across the economy as a whole," it said.

The US ratings agency also changed its outlook for China to stable from negative on the basis of balanced risks. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The statement said the downgrade reflected expectations that China's financial strength would "erode somewhat over the coming years, with the economy-wide debt continuing to rise as potential growth slows".

China's economy grew at the rate of 6.7 per cent in 2016, as compared with 6.9 per cent in the previous year. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

While the Chinese government budget deficit in 2016 was at around three per cent of gross domestic product (GDP), Moody's expected the government's debt would rise toward 40 per cent of GDP by 2018 and 45 percent by the end of the decade.

It also expected contingent and indirect liabilities to rise due to the policy bank loans, bonds issued by Local Government Financing Vehicles and other state-owned enterprises' investments.

Moody's also said the economy-wide debt of the government, households and non-financial companies would rise, as economic activity tends to be financed with debt in the absence of a sizeable equity market. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

In this regard, the report noted that the financial sector in China remained underdeveloped despite recent reforms. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


"Pricing of risk remains incomplete, with the cost of debt still partly determined by assumptions of government support to public sector or other entities perceived to be strategic," it said.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Cabinet approves abolition of Foreign Investment Promotion Board-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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24 May 2017

In a bid to further ease doing business in India, the Union cabinet on Wednesday abolished the over 25-year-old Foreign Investment Promotion Board (FIPB) that vetted foreign direct investment (FDI) proposals. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

"The cabinet today (Wednesday) approved the ending of the FIPB," Finance Minister Arun Jaitley told reporters here following a cabinet meeting.


The Union Budget 2017-18 had made an announcement in this regard, Jaitley said, and added that with the liberalisation of FDI rules, 90% of FDI was coming in anyway through the "automatic" route, without needing FIPB clearance.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Iran, Spanish Company Sign $615 Million Deal For Oil Pipes-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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24 May 2017

Iran on Wednesday signed a deal worth $615 million — or euros 550 million — with a Spanish-Iranian consortium under which the group will provide pipes used in Iran's oil industry. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

It was the first major deal for Iran's oil industry since President Hassan Rouhani's re-election last week to another term in office on a platform of reform and greater openness to the international community. The consortium, which includes Spain's Tubacex S.A. and Iran's Foolad Isfahan Company, will produce pipes made of a corrosion resistant alloy for a network of 600 kilometers, or about 370 miles, over three years.

The statement said the pipes will be produced using Japan's JFE Steel Corporation technology, and that the know-how will eventually be given to the Iranians.
At a ceremony marking the signing, Iran's Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh said he was "delighted that a deal worth more than 550 million euros is being signed."
"The Iranian manufacturer is happier than us and perhaps our foreign partner is the happiest party of all today, to have secured itself a long-term market" in Iran, Zanganeh added.

The minister said that during the years of punitive sanctions over Iran's nuclear program, the industry faced a severe shortage of pipes and were the sanctions still in place, "we would be unable to produce them now." The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

"I think it is the biggest tender we have had in this industry for a lot of years," said Antonio Rafael, deputy CEO of Tubacex. "It is very professionally managed."

Iran has been trying to renovate its oil industry since the 2015 landmark nuclear deal with world powers. The country exports 2 million barrels of oil per day, which compromises more than 30 percent of the country's annual budget.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Markets Brush Aside China Rating Downgrade-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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24 May 2017

Global stock markets (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)
Global stock markets traded in narrow ranges Wednesday, with investors brushing aside Moody's decision to cut China's debt rating. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

KEEPING SCORE: In Europe, the FTSE 100 index of leading British shares was up 0.3 percent at 7,506 while Germany's DAX fell 0.2 percent to 12,635. The CAC 40 in France was 0.1 percent lower at 5,341. U.S. shares were poised for a flat opening with both Dow futures and the broader S&P 500 futures unchanged. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

CHINESE DEBT: Moody's cut the Chinese government's rating to a still-relatively robust A1 from Aa3 and changed its outlook to stable from negative. The move, it said, reflects an expectation "China's financial strength will erode somewhat" and economy-wide debt will rise. The Chinese finance ministry criticized the move and said Moody's overestimated the difficulties facing the economy while failing to give adequate weight to economic reforms underway.

ANALYST TAKE: "Today's ratings downgrade reveals little that investors didn't already know about credit growth in China and the risk that it requires the government to accept a big increase in its debt load in future," said Mark Williams, chief China economist at Capital Economics. "The greater concern though, we believe, should be that this debt build-up is contributing to a slowdown in China's sustainable growth rate." The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

ASIA'S DAY: Following an early retreat, the Shanghai Composite Index ended up barely changed at 3,064.08. Hong Kong's Hang Seng ended little-changed at 25,428.50. Tokyo's Nikkei 225 rose 0.7 percent to 19,742.98 and Seoul's Kospi gained 0.2 percent to 2,317.34. Sydney's S&P-ASX 200 advanced 0.2 percent to 5,769.00. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

OPEC FOCUS: The OPEC oil cartel and other producers, notably Russia, are this week expected to extend last year's production cut in a concerted attempt to prevent oil prices from falling. With prices likely to fall because of an oversupply in the market if they don't, both Russia, and OPEC oil giant Saudi Arabia have spoken out in favor of an extension ahead of Thursday's meeting.

ENERGY: Benchmark U.S. crude rose 13 cents to $51.60 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange while Brent crude, used to price international oils, advanced 20 cents to $54.35 in London. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


CURRENCY: The euro was unchanged at $1.1186 while the dollar rose 0.1 percent to 111.82 yen.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Tuesday, 23 May 2017

Nifty, Sensex in a minor downtrend – Tuesday closing report-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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23 May 2017

I had mentioned in Monday’s closing report that Nifty, Sensex were vulnerable to adverse news. The major indices of the Indian stock markets suffered a correction on Tuesday and closed with losses of 0.55%-0.70% over Monday’s close. The trends of the major indices in the course of Tuesday’s trading are given in the table below: The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
 
Major Indices (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)
Equity benchmark indices started of the day on a flat note tracking muted global cues. The indices extended losses in early trades on selling pressure from traders. Depreciation of Indian rupee against US dollar in initial trades also pressured the equity market sentiments, according to market analysts. On the NSE, on Tuesday, there were 223 advances, 1,253 declines and 31 unchanged. On the BSE, on Tuesday, there were 605 advances, 2,113 declines and 158 unchanged. Overall, on Tuesday, the market trends were bearish.

The Goods and Services Tax (GST) will lead to lower tax burden in several commodities, including packaged cement, medicaments, smartphones and medical devices, the Finance Ministry said on Tuesday. There will be lesser tax burden in case of medicaments, including Ayurvedic, Unani, Siddha, Homeopathic or Bio-chemic systems also. Medicaments, in general, attract 6% central excise duty and 5% VAT. Further, CST, octroi, entry tax, etc. are also applicable in general. At these rates, the present total tax incidence works out to more than 13%. As against this, the proposed GST rate on medicines, including ayurvedic medicines, is 12%. The S & P BSE Healthcare Index closed at 14,216.70 down 2.72% on the BSE, on Tuesday.

State-run gas utility Gail India (GAIL) has declared a 69% fall in net profit at Rs260 crore for the fourth quarter ended March on account of an impairment charge on an investment, as compared to a net profit of Rs832 crore in the same period a year ago. Following the results announced after market hours on Monday, GAIL stock was trading lower by 4.22% at Rs374.65 a share on the BSE at 11.10 am on Tuesday. The company's net income, however, rose by 16% to Rs13,674 crore, from Rs11,802.40 crore in the fourth quarter of 2015-16, as revenue from petrochemicals rose by 57% to Rs1,766 crore and natural gas marketing by 12.7% to Rs10,370.56 crore. GAIL, in a stock exchange filing, said the fall in net profit was due to accounting of impairment of investments in Ratnagiri Gas and Power Ltd (RGPPL) of Rs783 crore in the fourth quarter. The net profit without the impact of impairment rose 25% to Rs1,043 crore in the quarter in question over the fourth quarter of 2015-16. The GAIL board of directors recommended the payment of final dividend of Rs2.7 per share for the year ended March 31, 2017. The company’s shares closed at Rs380.45, down 2.74% on the BSE. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


The top gainers and top losers of the major indices are given in the table below:
 
Top Gainer (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)


The closing values of the major Asian indices are given in the table below: The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
Asian Indices (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

To transform, India needs to improve competitiveness of its states-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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23 May 2017
 
India (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)
India has become the fastest-growing economy in the world. The next logical steps are to make this trend sustainable and to ensure that the benefits of this growth percolate down to the lowest rungs of the income hierarchy. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The success of these two goals will highly depend on the improvement in the country's national competitiveness. This is because, to maintain high growth in the global arena, India needs to retain its competitive advantage in the industries it excels in, and to ensure universal prosperity it needs to enhance competitiveness of its factors of production, especially labour.

Considering the importance that the idea of competitiveness holds for India's future, there is a need to understand what drives it. Is competitiveness a macro-economic phenomenon that is dependent on variables such as interest rates, exchange rates and government deficits? Or is it a function of cheap and abundant labour and natural resources? Can it be said to be dependent on the quality of a country's institutions or government policy?

Empirical evidence seems to offer no clear answers. For instance, Japan and South Korea have witnessed rising living standards with widening budget deficits; Germany and Sweden have prospered despite high wages and labour shortages; and Italy experienced a boom even though governance was highly ineffective.

Such global experiences fly in the face of the traditional approach in policymaking towards boosting national competitiveness that give undue importance to factors like interest rates and labour costs. India needs a focussed approach towards a singular goal that boosts its competitiveness to the fullest potential.

Michael Porter, a leading voice in areas of competition and strategy, suggests that competitiveness depends on the productivity with which a nation uses its human, capital and natural resources. According to him, a nation's productivity is the prime determinant of its long-run standard of living since the productivity of the labour determines its wages and the productivity of capital determines the return it earns for its holders. Thus, enhancing productivity caters to the twin goals of ensuring growth sustainability and higher standard of living for everyone.

The importance of productivity growth is aptly summarised in noted economist Paul Krugman's words: "Productivity isn't everything, but in the long run it is almost everything." Porter concurs when he suggests that a policy focus on interest rates, labour costs, exchange rates and economies of scale has only short-term appeal and will never lead to any competitive advantage for nations. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


The recent ongoing distress pangs in the Indian IT sector vindicate Porter's claims. The sector was highly dependent on providing low-cost talent to foreign firms. With higher automation and anti-immigration policies abroad, India has begun to lose the short-lived competitive advantage it had. Cost arbitrage can never be a long-term industry growth strategy. On the other hand, productivity growth requires continual industrial upgradation. To improve productivity, companies must raise product quality, improve product technology, or boost production efficiency. All of these factors require consistent innovation, which has been lacking in Indian IT companies. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Views are also divided on the role of government in boosting the competitiveness of nations. Many believe that government has an essential role to play in framing policies that directly support industries and boost their competitive performance. Others support a laissez-faire approach where the invisible hand guides market operations.

However, both views have their flaws. The former runs the risk of creating high dependency on government support for subsidies and incentives that hurts industry in the long-run. The latter view ignores the crucial role the government plays in providing vital institutional support to companies that can nudge them towards becoming more competitive.

The government's actual role needs to be that of a catalyst, which provides companies with a conducive environment that helps them move towards higher levels of competitive performance. Successful government policies are ones that create an environment that helps companies gain competitive advantage rather than ones that directly involve the government in the process.

The Modi government, in the last three years, has attempted to undertake policy initiatives along similar lines. The consistent efforts to improve ease-of-doing-business across the country is a case in point. The parameters of doing business include regulatory and infrastructural indicators that create a conducive environment for business activities and reduce bureaucratic interference.

Moving forward, the government needs to consolidate on the gains it has made until now on improving competitiveness and act upon areas on which it has missed out. The problem of NPAs, thus, needs to be the first item on the agenda, which seems to be the case considering the free hand RBI was recently given to resolve the issue. The issue of bad loans has severely impacted lending operations to businesses, thus impacting the overall competitiveness of the economy. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


Further, invigorating the nation's competitiveness in the long run calls for some bold moves on the part of the government. In the Indian scenario where regional disparities are widespread, policy on competitiveness cannot be decided at the national level. The government's role in enhancing Bihar's competitiveness, for instance, will be in stark contrast to the policy interventions needed in Maharashtra. Therefore, an apex body (as part of NITI Aayog) devoted to enhancing the overall competitiveness of each state is necessary to stimulate productivity and competitiveness across India. It would work as a principal planning body of competitiveness in India and would be responsible for the socio-economic development of each state operating in consonance with other state departments as well as the central government.

Such a body can understand the nuances of the state and be a facilitator in nudging industries towards achieving competitive advantage in areas where the state's strengths lie.


Competitive regions will beget a competitive economy. The more competitive the economy, the longer it can sustain its booming growth and bring about universal prosperity.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions