Tuesday, 19 September 2017

Fuel prices may come down by Diwali: Dharmendra Pradhan-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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19 September  2017 

Fuel (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)
Petroleum and Natural Gas Minister Dharmendra Pradhan said that fuel prices may come down by Diwali, which is next month.
The comments come amid criticism by opposition parties of a sharp rise in oil prices after the daily rate revision mechanism was introduced by the government recently. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
"Fuel prices may come down by Diwali festival," said the minister who was on a brief visit here. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
Pradhan, who has been elevated as Cabinet minister this month and given additional charge of the Ministry of Skill Development and Entrepreneurship, said prices of refinery oil went up because production of oil dropped by 13 per cent in the US due to floods. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
On being asked about margin of the oil companies, he said they are being run by the government. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
"And everything is crystal clear," he said, ruling out "higher margins" for the companies. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
When asked about bringing oil under the Goods and Services Tax (GST), Pradhan said that he hoped that it might be brought under the GST. "It will extend enormous benefit to customers."The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


US Current Account Deficit Hits $123.1 Billion-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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19 September  2017
Current account (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions) 

The deficit in the broadest measure of U.S. trade rose to the highest level in more than eight years this spring, reflecting in part a drop in fines and penalties paid by foreign companies. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
The deficit in the current account increased to $123.1 billion, up 8.5 percent from an imbalance of $113.5 billion in the first quarter, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday. It was the biggest deficit since a gap of $150 billion in the fourth quarter of 2008. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
The current account is the most complete measure of trade because it includes not only goods and services but investment flows and other payments between the United States and the world. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
President Donald Trump has promised to reduce America's trade deficit, contending it costs U.S. factory jobs.
One of the biggest contributing factors to the larger deficit in the April-June quarter was a decline in receipts from foreigners after they had risen sharply in the first quarter. The government attributed the $5.2 billion decrease in receipts of secondary income from foreigners to a decline in fines and penalties paid by foreign companies. That category had risen sharply in the first quarter.
Exports of goods and services increased $2.2 billion in the second quarter. Exports are getting a lift from a pickup in global growth and a drop in the value of the U.S. dollar against other currencies. A weaker dollar makes American products more competitive on foreign markets.
Imports of goods and services were also up in the second quarter, rising $11.8 billion, reflecting rising domestic demand from stronger U.S. growth.
The rise in the current account deficit put the imbalance in the second quarter at a level equivalent to 2.6 percent of the total economy, as measured by the gross domestic product, up from 2.4 percent in the first quarter. By comparison, the largest current account deficit in relation to GDP was in the fourth quarter of 2005 when the deficit totaled 6.3 percent of GDP.

Trump says America's trade deficits have been caused by bad trade deals and abusive practices by China and other U.S. trading partners. He has pledged changes that he says will reduce the deficit and bring back American factory jobs.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Global Shares Drift As Investors Pause Ahead Of Fed-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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19 September  2017
Japan financial markets (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

Global stock markets traded in fairly narrow ranges Tuesday as investors paused for breath, a day after U.S. stock markets struck a record high and geared up for the latest interest rate decision from the U.S. Federal Reserve.
KEEPING SCORE: In Europe, France's CAC 40 was up 0.1 percent at 5,234 while Germany's DAX was 0.1 percent lower at 5,234. The FTSE 100 index of leading British shares rose 0.4 percent to 7,278. U.S. stocks were poised for a steady opening with Dow futures and the broader S&P 500 futures up 0.1 percent. On Monday, the two benchmark U.S. indexes extended gains, albeit modestly, to close at record highs. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
THE FED: The consensus in markets is that the Fed will hold off from raising interest rates again but indicate that another increase could come in December. But traders will be listening for any indications the central bank could move sooner. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
ANALYST TAKE: "While we're not expecting any surprises out of the meeting, in terms of another rate hike for example, we should learn a lot about how the Fed plans to tighten monetary policy going forward and that will determine how U.S. yields and the dollar respond," said Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at OANDA. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
CURRENCIES: In the run-up to the decision, the dollar was largely steady, with the euro up 0.2 percent to $1.1974. Against the Japanese yen, the dollar was 0.1 percent lower at 111.48 yen.
ASIA'S DAY: Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 added nearly 2.0 percent to finish at 20,299.38, coming off a national holiday on Monday. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 edged down 0.1 percent to 5,713.60. South Korea's Kospi lost nearly 0.1 percent to 2,416.05. Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell nearly 0.4 percent to 28,051.41, while the Shanghai Composite dipped 0.2 percent to 3,356.84.

ENERGY: Benchmark U.S. crude rose 36 cents to $50.27 a barrel while Brent crude, used to price international oils, advanced 17 cents to $55.67.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Monday, 18 September 2017

Nifty, Sensex Headed Higher – Monday closing report-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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18 September  2017

I had mentioned in Friday’s closing report that Nifty, Sensex were at their best weekly performance in two months. The major indices of the Indian stock markets rallied on Monday and closed with gains over Friday’s close. The trends of the major indices in the course of Monday’s trading are given in the table below: The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
 
Major Indices (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)
Positive global cues, along with buying in automobile, capital goods and banking stocks, lifted the Indian equity markets, with the NSE Nifty50 touching record high levels during the mid-afternoon trade session on Monday. According to market observers, the rally was aided by persistent pumping in of funds by domestic investors. On the NSE, there were 1,011 advances, 658 declines and 309 unchanged. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Benchmark indices opened higher with Nifty hitting new record high, crossing 10,171, surpassing the previous milestone of 10,137, pointed out market analysts. Strong buying from domestic institutional investors (DIIs) has supported the 24% rally in Indian stock markets this year. According to estimates from market analysts, DIIs have pumped in around Rs70,000 crore into stock markets this year till September 2017. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Calling for a cut in the cess on transport fuels, industry chamber Assocham said on Sunday that the consumer is getting restive about a three-year high in the petrol prices and feels the market pricing mechanism is being distorted by tax hikes on petrol and diesel. "Consumers are getting restive about a three year high in the petrol and diesel prices because they feel the concept of market-determined rates was tampered with by frequent tax hikes when the crude oil prices fell steeply and are ruling at exactly half the level of $107 per barrel in May 2014, even after rising in the last three months," an Assocham release said here. "It is true that the crude oil has shot up by about 18 per cent from $45.60 per barrel, taking the pump prices of petrol in Delhi (for instance) to Rs70.39 per litre, from Rs65.40 three months ago," it said. Acknowledging that the increase in the retail prices is far less than hike in crude oil, Assocham said, however, that "the consumer is not willing to compare the crude prices of $45.60 in June versus $54 per barrel today" but "he/she would confront you with $107 per barrel of crude in May 2014 and the pump price of Rs71.51 per litre on June 1, 2014." "With $107 per barrel, the retail price of auto fuel was Rs71.51 per litre, then how come it is about the same when the Indian basket of crude is trading at half that level at $53.83 per barrel, the consumers would ask," the statement said.  If they were solely market determined, retail prices should have been less than Rs40 a litre, it added.  Indian Oil Corporation shares closed at Rs415.50, down 0.04% on the NSE on Monday.

Bankers on Saturday said they are betting on the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code and the process of National Company Law Tribunal for getting quick resolutions in order to solve the problems of bad loans. "The Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code, 2016 is a game-changer," State Bank of India's Managing Director (National Banking Group),Rajnish Kumar said, adding that it will greatly increase the pace of resolution of stressed assets. NCLT process is the new one and not matured but it provides a quick mechanism for getting resolutions for the stressed assets, bankers said, adding that the restructuring of bad loans, under the previously floated models, were tried to get rid of the problems but earlier models did not solve many problems. The S & P BSE Bankex closed at 28175.67, up 0.71% on the BSE on Monday. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The Indian equity markets are expected to take cues from geo-political developments in the Korean peninsula, as well as the policy meet of the US Federal Reserve, during the upcoming week starting September 18, according to market analysts. In addition to global cues, experts maintain that the direction of foreign fund flows will have a major bearing on the stock markets. This week is likely to be dominated by action from global central bank meetings -- the US Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan. The US Fed's Federal Open Market Committee will meet on September 20-21. 

The trends of the top gainers and the top losers of the major indices are given in the table below: The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

 
Top Gainer (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

The closing values of the major Asian indices are given in the table below: The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
Asian Indices (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

Penalty from accounts to partly fund Aadhaar linkage costs: SBI-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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18 September  2017
 
State Bank of India (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)
State Bank of India (SBI) expects to collect Rs 2,000 crore as penalty on savings bank accounts which have failed to maintain a minimum balance, a sum which may be used to partly cover the costs incurred on the linking of accounts with Aadhaar. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The recent directive of the government to link all savings bank accounts with Aadhaar by December 31 was a "very costly affair" as lenders were already facing high costs in maintaining such accounts and complying with the KYC (know your customer) requirement, says SBI Managing Director Rajnish Kumar.

To recover such costs, including the lender's costs on ATMs and business correspondents, the bank expects to realise over Rs 2,000 crore in the current fiscal from account holders as penalty for failing to maintain minimum balance in their savings accounts, he said. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

"Maintaining savings bank accounts and complying with KYC requirement is not an easy task. Now the government has said that you have to link Aadhaar to each and every account by December 31. So I have to look at (SBI's) 40 crore (savings bank) accounts and it is a very costly affair," he told IANS.

According to the government's mandate, all existing bank account holders will have to submit Aadhaar card numbers to banks by December 31 this year, failing which the accounts will become invalid.

Kumar said that the process would add to the costs of banks as it involves a process and making changes in the IT-backend as well.

"It (Aadhaar linking) is a costly affair because you have to contact the customer, you have to do the process, you have to make changes in IT. There are costs associated with savings bank accounts," he said.

The largest public lender said it also invests heavily in technology requirement to take care of the transactions made in the savings bank accounts.

"For maintaining savings bank accounts, there are certain costs. We have to invest heavily in technology. Our cost on technology every year is very high and that is more to take care of the transactions in (savings) accounts," he said.

"The penalty realised, we will use it to recover our outgo on ATMs. On business correspondents (BCs) channel, SBI incurs a loss of more than Rs 400 crore. We are incurring a cost of almost Rs 2,000 crore on business correspondents channel and ATMs per year. At least we should be able to recover that (from the penalty)," he said. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

From April 1, SBI made it mandatory for savings bank accounts in metropolitan cities to maintain Rs 5,000 as minimum balance, Rs 3,000 in urban areas, Rs 2,000 in semi-urban areas and Rs 1,000 in rural areas, failing which a penalty is levied.

He said that the rest of the penalty realised would go to recover the bank's other costs, including Aadhaar linking. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

According to an RTI query, SBI realised Rs 235.06 crore as penalty till June-end from more than 60 million savings bank accounts.

"Out of 27 crore (270 million) savings bank accounts which are required to comply with the minimum balance requirement, there may be about 20 per cent accounts that have not maintained the balance. We have given them enough time and notice. These charges were applicable from April 1. Those who couldn't comply, we recovered penalty in June," he said.

Kumar said that the bank is, however, thinking of exempting senior citizens' and students' accounts from such penalty.

"There is some feedback from senior citizens and students but by and large customers have accepted this. Whether we do make exemption relating to income group, or senior citizens or students, is under deliberation. We are now doing some analysis and we will take a call," he said.

In the normal course, review on such charges happens once in a year and is effective from April 1, but based on customer feedback, the review is expected earlier, the SBI MD said. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

"Review is expected earlier than 2018. Nothing is cast in iron. We will also take into account the competitive situation in the market," he said.


SBI has a total of 400 million savings bank accounts, out of which 130 million are Jan Dhan accounts and Basic Savings Bank Deposit (BSBD) accounts which are exempt from minimum balance requirement and no charges are recovered from these accounts.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Jaitley lists three gains from note ban-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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18 September  2017
 
Finance Minister Arun Jaitley (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)
Increase in volume of digital transactions, widening of tax base and squeezed circulation of high denomination currency were the real measures of success of demonetisation, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley said on Monday.

The success of the November 2016 note ban came under attack after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) revealed that almost 99 per cent of the banned currency had returned to the banks. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

"Some circles have lack of understanding and measure success of demonetisation with only how much money reached banks," Jaitley said here at the launch of Google's new digital payment app -- Tez.

"I have three red lines to measure success of demonetisation. First, how much volume of cash that RBI prints are we able to squeeze over time. High denomination currency has already squeezed in terms of volume. 

"Second test is that as its (demonetisation's) consequence, how many assessees are we able to add and expand tax base."

The third measure would be the increase in digital transaction volumes, he added. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

These three would remain the test of success of demonetisation, which both in the medium and long term would see an advancement in the positive direction, the minister stated.

"Lot of people at that time went for digital payments more as a compulsion rather than because it was easier. We reached a peak (of digital transactions), then slipped marginally and now we will pick up again," he said.

He added that with the technological evolution, the Google's app was perhaps the simplest way of monetary transactions.

Jaitley said the Google's new digital payments app over the next few months was likely to make major advances in digital transaction volumes.

Built on the Indian government-supported Unified Payments Interface (UPI), Tez allows users, free of charge, to make small or big payments straight from their bank accounts. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The app was built for India, working on the vast majority of the country's smartphones and available in English and seven Indian languages (Hindi, Bengali, Gujarati, Kannada, Marathi, Tamil and Telugu).

The app works in partnership with four Banks -- Axis Bank, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank and State Bank of India -- to facilitate the processing of payments across over 50 UPI-enabled banks. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Jaitley said the idea of Tez was discussed by Google's India-born CEO Sundar Pichai in January, just after demonetisation. 

"Google saw a great potential in Indian economy and businesses," he said.

Jaitley noted that the need for finding alternatives to high cash was never an issue seriously debated in the government earlier and the people got in the habit of living in a high-cash economy with low tax base as a normal practice.


Thus, demonetisation was a shock, waiting to happen and India had seen the debate over it evolve, he added.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

'CAD likely at 1.5% of GDP in 2017; funding not a constraint'-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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18 September  2017
Dollar (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

India's current account deficit is expected to widen to 1.5 per cent of GDP in 2017, from 0.6 per cent in 2016, but net capital flows are expected to more than fund this deficit, says a Nomura report. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The Japanese financial services major said that the wider current account deficit in the second quarter and still- elevated trade deficit so far in July-August suggest that the current account deficit is set to widen sharply this year.
Nomura expects current account deficit likely at 1.5 per cent of GDP in 2017 but noted that funding will not be a constraint.
The current account deficit increased to USD 14.3 billion, or 2.4 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in the April-June quarter of this year.
On a sequential basis, the CAD widened from USD 3.4 billion or 0.6 per cent of GDP in the January-March quarter. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
"We expect India's current account deficit to widen to 1.5 per cent of GDP in 2017, from 0.6 per cent in 2016, but we expect net capital inflows ? higher net FDI inflows as well as portfolio investments ? to more than fund the current account deficit," Nomura said in a research note.
According to official data, net foreign direct investment stood at USD 7.2 billion in the reporting quarter almost double from its level in the same period last year.

Net portfolio investment also recorded substantial inflow of USD 12.5 billion in April-June quarter, primarily in the debt segment, as compared to USD 2.1 billion in same period last year.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Global Markets Edge Up Ahead Of Trump Speech, Fed Meeting-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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18 September  2017
China financial markets (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

Global stock markets edged up on Monday as investors looked ahead to a U.S. Federal Reserve meeting and U.S. President Donald Trump's speech at the United Nations. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
KEEPING SCORE: Germany's DAX rose 0.3 percent to 12,549 and France's CAC 40 gained 0. 2 percent to 5,226. London's FTSE 100 added 0.4 percent to 7,246. On Wall Street, the futures for the Dow Jones industrial average and for the Standard & Poor's 500 were up 0.2 percent.
FED WATCH: Investors are looking ahead to this week's Fed policy meeting for indications on the timing of the next rate hike and when the Fed might start shrinking its multitrillion-dollar stockpile of bonds. Forecasters expect the Fed to leave rates unchanged and stick to plans to raise rates in December. Investors also are looking for indications of when and how central bankers will start selling off bonds bought to shore up economic growth after the 2008 crisis.
NORTH KOREA: Markets are also watching Trump's U.N. speech on Tuesday for any mention of military options on North Korea following its latest missile launch. The Security Council criticized Friday's launch over Japan as "highly provocative." Washington's ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki Haley, said Sunday that North Korea will be destroyed if it continues with reckless behavior.
ANALYST'S TAKE: "On the political front, no prizes for guessing that North Korea will top the agenda of President Trump's address to the gathering of world leaders at the U.N.," Rob Carnell of ING said in a report. "The political heat will also rise in Germany and New Zealand ahead of weekend elections. There could also be some more political action in Japan before long, as the media is suggesting that (Prime Minister Shinzo) Abe may call a snap election next month amid his rising approval rating and fragile opposition."
CENTRAL BANK WATCH: In Europe, investors are monitoring a speech by Bank of England Governor Mark Carney for confirmation that the bank expects to raise interest rates in coming months for the first time in a decade. Central banks are also due to hold policy meetings in Japan, Taiwan, Philippines and Indonesia. The Reserve Bank of Australia is due to release minutes of its meeting earlier this month. All are expected to leave policy unchanged but forecasters expect Australian policymakers to strike a more hawkish tone following stronger recent economic activity. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
ASIA'S DAY: The Shanghai Composite Index gained 0.3 percent to 3,362.86 and Hong Kong's Hang Seng added 1.3 percent to 28,159.77. Japanese markets were closed for a holiday. Seoul's Kospi advanced 1.3 percent to 2,418.21 and Sydney's S&P-ASX 200 added 0.4 percent to 5,720.60. India's Sensex gained 0.6 percent to 32,472.62. Benchmarks in Taiwan, Singapore and Bangkok rose while New Zealand and Taiwan declined. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
CURRENCY: The dollar rose to 111.39 yen from Friday's 110.82 yen. The euro was up at $1.1945 from $1.1928. The pound, which had surged last week when the Bank of England hinted a rate increase was coming, was at $1.3544, from $1.3592.

ENERGY: Benchmark U.S. crude fell 36 cents to $49.53 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It closed Friday unchanged at $49.89. Brent crude, used to price international oils, dropped 37 cents to $55.25 in London. It added 15 cents on Friday.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions