Monday, 19 March 2018

Nifty, Sensex may try to rally after a brief dip – Monday closing report-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


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19 March 2018


I had mentioned in Friday’s closing report that Nifty, Sensex were in a downward spiral. The major indices of the Indian stock markets suffered a further correction on Monday and closed with losses over Friday’s close. On the NSE, there were 276 advances, 1,472 declines and 287 unchanged. The trends of the major indices in the course of Monday’s trading are given in the table below:
 
Major Indices (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)


Key Indian equity indices on Monday were under consistent selling pressure as metals, banking and oil and gas stocks fell. According to market observers, negative Asian cues on the prospect of global trade wars, along with the country's widening fiscal deficit and caution ahead of the US Federal Reserve's meet on March 20-21, dented investors' risk-taking appetite. BSE Sensex and Nifty traded in negative territory for the fourth straight session, as the trade deficit widens sharply due to higher imports, said market analysts.

Reliance Big TV on Monday said it has tied-up with 12,000 post offices across Maharashtra and Goa for the booking of its "HD HEVC" set-top boxes by making an initial payment of Rs500. "The effectively free HD HEVC Set-Top Boxes, as promised by Reliance Big TV, can now be booked through 12,000 India Post Offices across Maharashtra and Goa," the company said in a statement. The statement added that on the receipt of the set-top box and outdoor unit, buyers have to pay the balance amount of Rs1,500 and avail the services free for one year including high-definition channels and up to 500 free-to-air channels free of cost for five years. 

Voicing concern on the financial deficit states of the northeast, Union Finance Minister Arun Jaitley has said that the Central government will extend full support to reverse the situation in the region, an official statement said on Sunday. With worsening financial deficit on more than one count, there is likely to be downward pressure on the major indices until the next Budget Session of Parliament in 2019.

Budget carrier IndiGo Airlines announced on Sunday that it A320 Neo aircraft that operated on the Bengaluru-Delhi route earlier in the day was withdrawn here for a maintenance check to attend to a reported defect. The airline, in a statement, described the exercise as a maintenance check that was conducted as part of a programme of early detection. "An A320 neo aircraft that operated Bengaluru-Delhi today morning was proactively withdrawn in Delhi for a maintenance check to attend to a pilot-reported defect. These maintenance checks are part of a comprehensive program of early detection," it said. "During the maintenance check, metal chips were observed on 1 Engine, 3 Bearing Chip detector, which is a known concern on the Neo engine." Meanwhile, IndiGo and GoAir cancelled 48 flights on Wednesday as almost a third of their A320 Neo aircraft fleet remained grounded for the third day following a safety directive by the aviation regulator DGCA. Of these flights, 42 are of IndiGo and six belong to GoAir. InterGlobe Aviation shares closed at Rs1,215.80, down 4.07% on the NSE.

Securities market regulator Sebi has fined media organisation NDTV, and four individuals for lapses in mandatory disclosure. According to a Sebi order dated March 16, NDTV has been fined Rs10 lakh. Besides the firm, the regulator has fined -- Prannoy Roy, Radhika Roy, Vikramaditya Chandra and Anoop Singh Juneja -- Rs3 lakh each. NDTV shares closed at Rs43.50, up 0.34% on the NSE.
An annual trade deficit of as much as $150 billion with the US alone does not allow India room to retaliate in the event of a global trade war being unleashed by recent protectionist trends in the developed world, since the country's imports are mostly of an essential nature, industry chamber Assocham said on Sunday. In a trade war, textile exports from India to US may be affected to the extent of lower profit margins for exporters. Arvind Limited shares closed at Rs386.15, down 1.83% on the NSE.

The Congress on Saturday said it would impose a 5% cess on the incomes of the top 1% richest Indians, when it comes to power. The resolution on "Agriculture, Employment and Poverty Alleviation", adopted at the party's 84th plenary here, also said that the party shall create a National Poverty Alleviation Fund while this 5 per cent cess would "be used directly to give education scholarships to the children from Scheduled Castes, Scheduled Tribes, and other BPL families". The Congress also noted that the rising levels of income inequality are a direct result of the "anti-poor policies" of the Narendra Modi government. If this becomes government policy within the next 1-2 years, share prices of large private sector employers may be affected adversely.

The top gainers and top losers of the major indices are given in the table below:
 
Top Gainer (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)


The closing values of the major Asian indices are given in the table below:

Asian Indices (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)



India's current account deficit likely at 1.7% in FY18: Report-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


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19 March 2018

current account deficit(The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

India's current account deficit is expected to be around 1.7 percent of GDP in this financial year, largely owing to higher oil prices, says a report.
With the December quarter, current account deficit worsening to 2 percent of GDP, Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BofAML) raised its current account deficit forecast for this financial year and for the next fiscal.
The global financial services major has raised its current account deficit forecast by 10 bps to 1.7 percent of GDP in 2017-18 and by 20 bps to 1.9 percent of GDP in 2018-19.
According to data released by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday, the current account deficit rose to 2 percent of the GDP at $13.5 billion in the December quarter, up from $8 billion or 1.4 percent in the year-ago period, on the back of higher trade deficit.
On a cumulative basis, current account deficit more than doubled to 1.9 percent of GDP in the April-December 2017 period.
"Looking ahead, we see three pressures on India's balance of payments: higher oil prices will stick the current account deficit at a relatively higher level; FPI equity flows in equities should remain tepid given high equity market valuations; and flows to the Chinese market will likely pick up with A shares entering the MSCI," the report said.
The report further noted that the trade deficit has improved to $12 billion in February from $16.3 billion in January. "This should contain the March quarter current account deficit to $7 billion," it added.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

India, Hong Kong sign double tax agreement-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


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19 March 2018
 
Gautam Bambawale (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)


India and Hong Kong on Monday signed an agreement to avoid double taxation and prevent tax evasion.

India's Ambassador to China Gautam Bamabwale and Hong Kong's Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo signed the treaty.
A former British colony, Hong Kong is a special administrative region of China which enjoys a high degree of autonomy under which it has an independent taxation system.
The agreement is "for the avoidance of double taxation and the prevention of fiscal evasion with respect to taxes on income", the Indian Embassy in Beijing said.
"This agreement will stimulate the flow of investment, technology and personnel from India to Hong Kong Special Administrative Region and vice versa, prevent double taxation and provide for the exchange of information between the two contracting parties," the statement said.
"It will improve transparency in tax matters and will help curb tax evasion and tax avoidance," it added.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

No FDI in defence, ports, coal in Apr-Dec: Govt-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


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19 March 2018

FDI (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)


As many as six sectors, including defence industries, ports and coal production, have failed to attract any foreign direct investments during the April-December period of the current fiscal, Parliament was informed on Monday.
The other three sectors, which were not able to attract foreign inflows are – photographic raw film & paper, dye-stuffs and coir, according to the data shared by Minister of State for Commerce and Industry C R Chaudhary in a written reply to the Lok Sabha.

Barring defence industries and dye-stuffs, the other four segments had not received any FDI in 2015-16 either. The government has relaxed FDI norms in several sectors, including defence, single brand retail and civil aviation, to attract foreign direct investment in the country.

India imports 70 per cent of its military hardware from different countries. During April-December 2017-18, FDI into the country grew by a meagre 0.27 per cent to USD 35.94 billion.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Trade War Fears Stalk Global Markets Ahead Of G20 Meeting-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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19 March 2018
Hong Kong financial markets (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)


Global stock markets have started the new week on a soft note, weighed down by worries about a trade war.

KEEPING SCORE: In Europe, the FTSE 100 index of leading British shares was down 1.2 percent at 7,078 while Germany's DAX fell 0.6 percent to 12,314. France's CAC-40 was 0.5 percent lower at 5,255. U.S. stocks were poised for a soft opening, with Dow futures and the broader S&P 500 futures 0.5 percent lower.

TRADE WORRIES: With finance ministers and central bankers from the Group of 20 leading industrial and developing nations meeting in Buenos Aires Monday and Tuesday, there is mounting concern that a global trade war may be looming following the decision of U.S. President Donald Trump to slap tariffs on imported steel and aluminum. The European Union, for example, has already published a list of American products it plans to tax if it is not exempted from the tariffs announced by Trump. They are worth around 2.8 billion euros ($3.4 billion) in trade annually, but the list could grow to the equivalent of 6.4 billion euros once the full extent of the impact of U.S. tariffs is known.

ANALYST TAKE: "It's been a rocky start to trading at the start of the week, as the prospect of a trade war becomes ever more real," said Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at OANDA. "Despite what he says, I'm not sure that a trade war is what Trump actually wants from these tariffs or that he'll find much support for one within his party."

FED WATCH: Investors will also be closely monitoring this week's first meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve's rate-setting committee under newly appointed Fed chairman Jerome Powell. Another quarter-point increase in the Fed's benchmark rate is anticipated. More important for investors is what the Fed says about the U.S. economic outlook and in particular its forecasts for inflation. "Jay Powell's first meeting as chairman will end with a rate hike, but the accompanying statement's tone and forecast update will be key for markets," said James Knightley, chief international economist at ING.

CHINA'S NEW FACES: A U.S.-trained economist was named to succeed longtime Chinese central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan as part of a slate of new economic officials. The appointments come as Beijing tries to rein in surging debt and reduce financial risk. The new governor of the People's Bank of China, Yi Gang, is a 20-year veteran of the bank and known to foreign investors and regulators as head of China's foreign exchange regulator.

ASIA'S DAY: The Shanghai Composite Index added 0.3 percent to 3,279.25 while Tokyo's Nikkei 225 fell 0.9 percent to 21,480.90. Hong Kong's Hang Seng added 12 points to 31,513.76 and Seoul's Kospi lost 0.8 percent to 2,475.03. Sydney's S&P-ASX 200 advanced 0.2 percent to 5,959.40.

ENERGY: Benchmark U.S. crude fell 9 cents to $62.32 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange while Brent crude, used to price international oils, rose 5 cents to $66.26 per barrel in London.

CURRENCIES: The euro was up 0.2 percent at $1.2314 while the dollar rose 0.4 percent to 106.29 yen.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Friday, 16 March 2018

Nifty, Sensex in a Downward Spiral – Weekly closing report-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


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16 March  2018

 I had mentioned in last Friday’s closing report that Nifty, Sensex might try to rally. The major indices of the Indian stock markets were volatile during the week and closed on Friday with small losses over last Friday’s close. The trends of the major indices in the course of the week’s trading are given below: The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
 
Weekly Indices (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)


Value buying by investors, along with positive global cues, pushed the BSE Sensex index to over 600 points and the Nifty50 of the National Stock Exchange (NSE) by almost 200 points on Monday. According to market observers, the sharp upward rally of the key indices came on the back of broad-based buying in sectors like FMCG (fast moving consumer goods), auto, IT (information technology,) banking, metals and oil and gas. Index heavyweights like Bharti Airtel, ITC, NTPC, Tata Motors and Hero MotoCorp were the top gainers on the BSE. Top gainers on the NSE were HCL, ITC and Infosys, while on the declines were Coal India, State Bank of India and Aurobindo Pharma. On the NSE, there were 856 advances, 698 declines and 70 unchanged.  

Automobile manufacturer Eicher Motors on Monday said the company has decided to shut its joint venture -- Eicher Polaris Private Ltd (EPPL) -- with US-based Polaris Industries Inc. The decision was taken in a meeting held last week on Friday (March 9), Eicher Motors said. "The initial interest (among customers) could not be sustained, and subsequent sales performance was significantly slower than the company's expectations," it said in a regulatory filing to the BSE

The Rajya Sabha on Monday failed to conduct any business due to a continued standoff between the government and several other parties over a range of issues including special status for Andhra Pradesh, the PNB fraud and the sealing drive in Delhi. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

A sudden sell-off in stocks of IT (information technology) majors like Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) and Infosys pulled the BSE Sensex index lower on Tuesday. According to market observers, TCS scrip plunged over 5% on announcements of block deals on both the BSE and National Stock Exchange (NSE). On Monday, Tata Sons had sold $1.25 billion of its stake in the company.
Earlier on Tuesday, macro-economic data, along with buying in banking, consumer durables, oil and gas and healthcare stocks had lifted the key Indian equity indices. The BSE Sensex reclaimed the 34,000-mark in the course. On the NSE, there were 1,062 advances, 452 declines and 63 unchanged.

Bharti Airtel on Tuesday said Singapore Telecommunications Ltd (Singtel) has invested Rs2,649 crore in Bharti Telecom, the promoter company of Airtel. As per the deal, shares have been allotted to Singapore International Investments Private Ltd, an affiliate of Singtel, Bharti Airtel said in regulatory filing to the BSE. This transaction concludes the investment process that Bharti Airtel had announced on February 5. With this investment, "Singtel's total stake (along with its affiliates) in Bharti Telecom has increased to 48.90%," the filing said, adding that, Bharti Enterprises continues to hold over 50% stake in the company. 

Weak cues from the Asian markets, as well as selling pressure in banking, oil and gas, and auto stocks, pulled the key Indian equity indices lower during the mid-afternoon trade session on Wednesday. Market observers said the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) move to discontinue the system of issuing Letters of Undertaking (LoUs) by banks for availing trade credits for imports into India with immediate effect eroded investors' risk-taking appetite.

Top gainers on the NSE were Tech Mahindra, UltraTech Cement and Ambuja Cement, while on the declines were Infratel, Bharti Airtel and State Bank of India.
Key Indian equity indices, which traded in the negative territory during the day pared some losses to close Wednesday's trade on a flat-to-negative note. On the NSE, there were 876 advances, 829 declines and 315 unchanged. Private lender Yes Bank announced it has acquired more than 17% share in Fortis Healthcare, making the bank the largest shareholder in the healthcare major. In a stock exchange filing, Yes Bank said the 17.31% equity in Fortis has been acquired in lieu of the default in loan repayment by the promoters of the healthcare company. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The major indices of the Indian stock markets were volatile on Thursday and closed with small losses over Wednesday’s close. On the NSE, there were 964 advances, 540 declines and 65 unchanged. The market indices have not been able to break out higher and instead have been under tremendous pressure. It is like that the market would head lower with Nifty heading towards 10,000 we had said on Thursday. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

On Friday, a huge sell-off across all sectors -- led by oil and gas, metals, auto and banking stocks -- dragged the Indian equity markets further into the negative territory during Friday's afternoon session, with the BSE Sensex shedding over 500 points. On the NSE, there were 563 advances, 1,162 declines and 293 unchanged. The correction in the major indices at the time of close of trading on Friday was over 1.5% over Thursday’s close. Tata Motors, Adani Ports, NTPC, ONGC and ITC were the top drags on the BSE.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Credit cost to rise as LoUs issuance discontinued: SBI Ecowrap-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


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16 March  2018
 
SBI(The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)


The RBI's decision to discontinue the Letters of Undertaking (LoUs) or Letters of Comfort (LoC) might increase the credit cost for imports as it will lead to a shift towards "other off-balance sheet" products, said a State Bank of India (SBI) report on Friday. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
According to SBI Ecowrap report, the shift to "other off-balance sheet" products will be "administratively time consuming" and in the short-term might impact export funding as well. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
On March 13, RBI decided to discontinue the system in the wake of the Rs 12,600 crore fraud at the state-run Punjab National Bank (PNB).
"Banning LoUs/LoCs might lead to shifting to other off balance sheet products -- LCs, Bank Guarantees, other fund based facilities or on to balance sheet," the SBI Ecowrap report said.
"We, however, believe the shift to other off balance sheet products if occurs, will be administratively time consuming. However capital charge may vary for different products leading to changes in capital requirements in either direction depending on the product used and associated risk."
Earlier, banks were permitted to issue guarantee/LoU/LoC in favour of overseas supplier, bank or financial institution up to $20 million per import transaction under the automatic route for a maximum period up to one year in case of import of non-capital goods. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
As per the latest available RBI data, guarantees given on behalf of constituents outside India stood at Rs 1.95 lakh crore as on March 31, 2017.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Lok Sabha passes bill to increase employees' gratuity limit-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


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16 March  2018
 
Gratuity(The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)


 The Supreme Court on Thursday ordered real estate major Amrapali Group and its home buyers to meet on Saturday and arrive at a consensus on the status of its various housing projects nearing completion.

A bench of Justice Arun Mishra and Justice U.U. Lalit said the meeting will be held on March 17 at 11 a.m. at the Supreme Court consultation room and, thereafter, a joint statement on the development of the meeting would be filed before the court.

There was an urgent need for consensus between the Amrapali Group and home buyers to identify projects that were nearing completion, mid-way and those nowhere near completion, said the bench, adding that it wants that home buyers get their flats at the earliest and refund of money is not the solution to the problem. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

On February 22, the court had directed the real estate group to finish the remaining work on 19 towers in its Leisure Valley housing project in Greater Noida. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The Amrapali Group had earlier submitted a comprehensive proposal on how it planned to deliver 42,000 flats to its buyers in various projects.

Earlier, the Group, facing insolvency proceedings initiated by the creditor bank for not repaying the loans, had told the court that it was not in a position to complete the projects and hand over possession of flats to over 42,000 home-buyers in a time-bound manner, and the properties were needed to be developed with the help of co-developers. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The Amrapali Group has liabilities of about Rs 3,000 crore towards authorities and owes over Rs 1,000 crore to about 10 banks, and it needs about Rs 3,000 crore to complete its ongoing projects.

The apex court has been hearing a batch of pleas filed by home buyers who have sought quashing of the National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT) order admitting insolvency proceedings against Amrapali Group.

Buyers belong to the low and middle-income groups and must be granted equal protection as other stakeholders -- financial and operational creditors, the home buyers' plea had said.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

India’s effort to be a global financial hub has lost its momentum: Ashok Chawla -The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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16 March  2018
 
Financial centre (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)
 As the balance of power in the global economy shifts east and the financial world puts greater focus on Asia, top cities in this part are vying for a place of pride and challenging traditional hubs like London, which is likely to lose its standing following the politico-economic rebalancing of Brexit. 

Within Asia, Hong Kong has lost much of its competitive edge over the years as Singapore beat it in the race. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

But it remains a long shot for India’s financial capital Mumbai, which has over the years dreamt big and done too little to even be in the recknoning. 

“We lost the momentum in the last 9-10 years because of the global financial crisis. Political factors, too, caused a lot of volatility,” Ashok Chawla, NSE Chairman and former finance secretary, told an elite gathering at the ETMarkets Global Summit in Mumbai on Thursday.
The National Stock Exchange (NSE) last month caused a ripple in the global financial markets when it announced withdrawal of licence for Nifty futures trading on the Singapore Stock Exchange. Overseas portfolio investors use these future contracts to hedge their exposure to the Indian market. 

GIFT City, which aspires to take on Asian financial hubs from Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s home city Ahmedabad, is seeking to draw these FII money by launching a proxy contract on its platform. 

India, Asia’s third-largest economy, is fast gaining clout in the global economic order and is being projected to become the world’s fifth-largest economy in a few years. A large young population, booming domestic consumption, a fast-expanding economy and a relatively steady and accommodating policy environment are making multinationals and financial giants to draw up big plans for this market. 
The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

“Any country or city that aspires to be a global financial centre must be a robust economy,” says Chawla. “Be it London, Frankfurt or Tokyo, these financial hubs were all anchored in strong economies. We are moving in that direction, but are not there yet,” he said. 

Meanwhile in Mumbai, the Maharashtra government is chalking out plans to make another big push to earn itself the pride of place. 
Chawla is hopeful that by 2030, India and China would be important centres in terms their return on investment and shares of global savings. 

By 2030, India is projected to contribute 7 per cent of global savings, from 3-4 per cent at present. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

“Our laws, regulations and institutions must be of global standards; this is the second pre-requisite to be a global financial hub. We often falter on this count. Our institutions or economic architecture is still not of global standards,” he pointed out. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

All instruments need to be liquid, and they need to have more and more foreign participation, Chawla insisted. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Later, talking to ETMarkets.com on the sidelines of the event, Chawla said he is optimistic that the NSE will be able to launch its IPO in FY19. He noted that the matter related to the co-location case has still not been settled. “Once that is settled, we are geared up to go for the IPO,” he added. 

Asked if there would be some proxy contracts to replace SGX Nifty futures trading on the Singapore Stock Exchange (SGX), the NSE chairman said discussions were on between the NSE management and the Singapore authorities and it would be premature to give any indication at this stage. 

On NSE’s overseas ambitions, the NSE chairman said the exchange is competent and equipped to move to other markets. "It is exploring viable propositions elsewhere. Generally, they come through a transparent bidding process. Whenever we feel it is appropriate, we will go for it,” Chawla said. 
The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions