Thursday, 7 July 2016

Will Bandhan Bank move to the next level? -The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Contact Your Financial Adviser MONEY MAKING MC
07  July 2016 
BB(The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)
Bandhan Bank has transitioned well from a micro-finance institution to a bank after commencing banking operations in August 2015. Brokerage firm Religare has come up with some interesting insights on this unlisted Kolkata-based bank based on its annual report. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Up to March 2016, it had garnered Rs121 billion of deposits. Out of these, current and savings account (CASA) deposits stand at Rs26 billion. Banks accounted for around 35% of its total deposits. Bandhan Bank has a stellar savings account (SA) deposit ratio of 20%. It has issued 77 lakh debit cards up to now. 

On the flip side, there is a concentration risk with respect to deposits as the top 20 depositors constituted 30% of the total deposits. Another problem for the bank is that the savings account balance per account is low. After doing some number-crunching, Religare estimates that the average balance per savings account for the bank is at a little more than Rs3,000. This low ratio impacts profitability as the operating costs of these accounts is high in comparison to the income generated.

Coming to the loan book, agriculture and allied loans constitute more than half of its total loans. Currently, its small and medium enterprises (SME) loans stand at Rs65 crore. These constitute merely 0.5% of the total loans. It intends to focus on SME loans with a ticket size of Rs1 lakh– Rs10 lakh and retail loans. Its retail loans stand at Rs60 crore i.e. 0.5% of the total loans. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Its return on equity (RoE) stands at a around 17% on an annualised basis, while its return on assets (RoA) is at 3.8%. Currently, around 1/3rd of its total branches are situated in urban regions. Its future plans include opening of 180 new branches by March 2017. The majority of its new branches will be opened outside West Bengal. The management plans to brand the bank as a pan-India bank. The bank is experimenting with low-cost small format branches in parts of West Bengal and Bihar in order to reduce operational costs. These branches will have minimal staff and will largely restrict themselves to deposit-taking and withdrawal of money. The Total Investment & Insurance Solution 

Bandhan Bank, which was set up as a micro-finance company in 2001, received a banking license from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in 2014. Some of the investors in the Bandhan Bank include World Bank Group's International Finance Corporation (IFC) and Small Industries Development Bank of India (SIDBI). The Total Investment & Insurance Solution

Nifty, Sensex could be under pressure - Thursday closing report-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Contact Your Financial Adviser MONEY MAKING MC
07  July 2016 

In Tuesday’s closing report we had mentioned that Nifty, Sensex may give up some gains. Today up to 2.00pm the benchmarks moved sideways near to Tuesday’s close. After that, the indices moved higher to hit the day’s high however could not sustain there for long and gave up the gains to close marginally higher. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
Indian(The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

The indices had risen for six consecutive trading days before falling on Tuesday. The markets were closed on Wednesday for Eid-ul-Fitr.

The 30-scrip Sensex of the BSE, which opened at 27,209.97 points, closed at 27,201.49 points - up 34.62 points or 0.13% from the previous close at 27,166.87 points. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The wider 51-scrip Nifty of the National Stock Exchange (NSE) rose by 1.95 points or 0.02%, at 8,337.90 points. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The Sensex touched a high of 27,288.22 points and a low of 27,146.95 points during the intra-day trade.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Technology stocks, including those in media and entertainment space, came under selling pressure with their sectoral indices losing over 1.5%, even as the indices for fast-moving consumer goods, healthcare and banking sectors closed with gains. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Lupin was the top gainer among the Sensex stocks, with a rise of 6.25% at Rs 1,657.30, followed by Hindustan Lever (up 3.03% at Rs 917.35), Dr. Reddy (up 2.25% at Rs 3,525.15) and HDFC up 2.51% at Rs 1,290.95.

Tata Steel was the top loser, down 4.92% at Rs 317.65, followed by Tata Consultancy, down 2.16% at Rs 2,429.05, Coal India, down 1.96% at Rs 315.45 and Adani Ports, down 1.84% at Rs 210.40.

The top gainers and top losers of the major indices are given in the table below: The Total Investment & Insurance SolutionS
Major Indices(The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

The closing values of the major Asian indices are given in the table below: The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Asian Market(The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)



Wednesday, 6 July 2016

Cabinet approves interest subvention scheme for farmers-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Contact Your Financial Adviser MONEY MAKING MC
06 July 2016 

The union cabinet which met here on Tuesday with Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the chair approved the interest subvention scheme for farmers for 2016-17.

"The government has earmarked a sum of Rs18,276 crore for this purpose. This will help farmers getting short term crop loan payable within one year up to Rs3 lakhs at only 4% per annum," said a cabinet communique.

According to the scheme, the central government will provide interest subvention of 5% per annum to all farmers for short term crop loan upto one year for loan upto Rs3 lakh borrowed by them during 2016-17. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

"Farmers will thus have to effectively pay only 4% as interest. In case farmers do not repay the short term crop loan in time, they would be eligible for interest subvention of 2% as against 5% available above," the release added. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

In order to give relief to small and marginal farmers who would have to borrow at 9% for the post harvest storage of their produce, the central government has approved an interest subvention of 2% i.e an effective interest rate of 7% for loans upto 6 months. 

To provide relief to the farmers affected by natural calamities, the interest subvention of 2% will be provided to banks for the first year on the restructured amount. 

The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Three Major Changes in Bond Market That would Create a Big Impact-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Contact Your Financial Adviser MONEY MAKING MC
06 July 2016 
Bond(The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

The regulators in India continue to make changes to streamline the regulatory regime surrounding the Indian bond market. Lately, there has been a number of changes which is likely to cause a positive impact, which otherwise has been performing well during the last one year. There seems to be some effort from the government to push all the regulators towards a common goal. There are three changes, of which two have already come and one is expected to come, that we are bullish about, first, issue of debt securities through electronic book building mechanism, second, changes in the deposit rules for the companies to allow issuance of listed unsecured corporate bonds and third, RBI’s draft notification to allow FPIs to invest in corporate bonds. Let us discuss each of the above separately. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Issue of debt securities through electronic book mechanism
Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) vide circular CIR/IMD/DF1/48/2016 dated on 21 April 2016 had provided a mandatory framework for issue of debt securities by private placement with an issue size excess of Rs500 crore through an electronic book mechanism (EBM). One such requirement of the circular stated that EBM shall be provided by the recognized stock exchanges after approval from SEBI. Accordingly, SEBI has granted its approval to NSE and BSE to act as EBP. By this, all the issuers of debt securities and market participants shall mandatorily make such private placement offer only through the EBM for their issuances with effect from 1 July 2016.

The old mechanism through which debt securities were issued on private placement basis in primary market lacked transparency. However, the EBM will enable efficient price discovery, reduction in times and cost, transparency among other things. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Changes in the Deposit Rules
Until recently, the Companies (Acceptance of Deposits) Rules, 2014 barred the corporates from issuing unsecured debt instruments. However, the Ministry of Corporate Affairs (MCA) vide notification dated 29 June 2016 issued the Companies (Acceptance of Deposits) Amendment Rules, 2016 (Amendment Rules) thereby providing relaxation with respect to issuance of corporate bonds.

The Amendment Rules has addressed this issue by excluding listed unsecured non-convertible debentures (NCDs) from the definition of deposits. Earlier, corporates, other than financial entities, were allowed to issue either secured bonds or bonds compulsorily convertible into equity within a period of five years from the date of issuance, anything apart from the said were treated as deposits. 

There is however a disconnect with the SEBI (Listing Obligations and Disclosure Requirements) Regulations, 2015 (Listing Regulations 2015), which requires the maintenance of 100% asset cover for discharging the principal amount at all the times, except in case of unsecured debt securities issued by regulated financial sector entities eligible for meeting capital requirements as specified by respective regulators. Therefore, unless necessary changes are made in the Listing Regulations 2015, the non-financial entities will not be able to take the benefit of this change. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The situation, however, will not be any different for the financial entities, since, they were allowed issue unsecured bonds in accordance with the directives issued by their regulators.
The guidelines framed by Reserve Bank of India (RBI) allow the non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) to issue unsecured NCDs with a maturity of more than one year and with the minimum subscription amount being Rs1 crore per investor. This is why the bond market in India has been mainly dominated by the NBFCs during the last few years and the same can be viewed in the figure below.

Bond(The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

In many of the developed countries bonds are issued without creation of security interest, subject to certain compliances, so as to enable easy raising of funds by the corporates.  Most corporates, other than NBFCs, do not have assets to create charge in favour of bond or debenture holders, as the assets are already charged in favour of banks. It is counter intuitive to expect a corporate to issue secured bonds; if the corporate had security to offer, it may be easier to access bank loans. It is when companies exhaust their security interests that they opt for bonds. Bonds are an incremental, additional source of funding, and not the first source of borrowing for most companies. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Investments by Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs)
Another significant change that is all set to come is that the foreign portfolio investors (FPI) will now be allowed to make investments in unsecured corporate bonds and securitized debt instruments. RBI issued a draft circular on 17 June 2016 laying down new norms for FPI investments. The draft circular states that the FPIs will now be able to invest in primary issues of NCDs or bonds by public companies issued in demat form. However, the funds so raised cannot be invested for real estate activities, purchase of land, investing in capital markets or on-lending to other entities. Once put to effect, this circular can turn out to be a huge boost for the Indian capital markets. 

Each of the changes that we discussed in this article has come from different regulators and all of them facilitate is likely to facilitate the growth of the Indian capital markets. This entire episode can be summed to say that the heydays of the Indian capital market are soon to come.
The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions




US doubts India's 7.5% growth, wants reforms to match rhetoric-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Contact Your Financial Adviser MONEY MAKING MC
06 July 2016 

Doubting India's claim of a 7.5% growth, the economic diplomacy arm of the US State Department has said that the Indian government must pursue reforms to match the rhetoric even as key bills struggle to get past parliament.

"Ostensibly, India is one of the fastest growing countries in the world but the depressed investor sentiment suggests the approximately 7.5% growth rate may be overstated," said the Bureau of Economic and Business Affairs in its latest report. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The comprehensive report took note of a range of initiatives that have been taken by the Narendra Modi government since May 2014, notably in opening up the economy to enhance Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), the "Make in India" initiative and removal of bureaucratic hurdles.

"However, the government has been slow to propose other economic reforms that would match its rhetoric, and many of the reforms it did propose have struggled to pass through parliament," it added in the India-related section of the report "Investment Climate Statements for 2016".

Giving examples, the report said the government failed to muster political support on the land acquisition bill in Parliament, all but ending its chance of passage in the near term, and still awaits the Opposition's nod in passing the Goods and Services Tax Bill (GST Bill). The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

It also had a piece of advice for those dealing with India.

"India's political system is highly decentralised. Investors must be prepared to face varied political and economic conditions across India's states and union territories, including differences in the quality of governance, regulation, taxation, labour relations and education levels."

The report said this situation has resulted in many investors backing off somewhat from their once forward-leaning support of the Bharatiya Janata Party-led government. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

"Prime Minister Modi's courtship of multinationals to invest and 'Make in India' has not yet addressed long-standing hesitations over India's lack of effective IPR enforcement," the US Foreign Ministry report said in a reference to India's Intellectual Property Rights (IPR) regime, which has been a sore point in India-US trade relations. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

"The Modi government has been very willing to engage in discussions with the US government and US industry on IPR in 2015," it said.

Last month, the World Bank retained the 7.6% growth rate projection for India in the current fiscal. The country registered a 7.6% growth rate in 2015-16.

The US State Department questioning of the GDP figures now adds fresh fuel to the controversy in India around calculation of the national GDP under a new methodology unveiled by the Central Statistics Office last year.

The report also lauded the fact that "the monetary stewardship of Raghuram Rajan, the respected Governor General of the Reserve Bank of India, further boosted investor sentiment". The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


Rajan has announced his intent to return to academia at the end of his tenure in early September. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Manufacturing lifts India's economy in June-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Contact Your Financial Adviser MONEY MAKING MC
06 July 2016 

Strong manufacturing industry lifted Indian economy while business activity in the service sector rose at its second lowest rate in the current 12-month period of growth in June, key macroeconomic data showed on Tuesday.

The Nikkei India composite PMI (purchasing managers' index) which is a key macro data that indicates monthly trends in overall economic activity stood at 50.3 in June, in the current 12-month sequence of above-50 readings, down from 51.0 in May. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

An index reading of above 50 indicates an overall increase in the economic activity, while below 50 an overall decline.

Though employment rose fractionally, outstanding business in June was up compared to May while faster increase in input costs contrasted with slowdown in charge inflation. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Contributing to stronger increase in private sector activity, manufacturing production sped to a three-month high.

"Although manufacturing shifted into a higher gear in June, variables such as new orders, employment and production stayed below their respective long-run averages," said Markit economist Pollyanna De Lima.

The seasonally adjusted Nikkei India Composite PMI Output Index increased from 50.9 in May to 51.1 in June.

In the reveiwed month, June experienced softer rise in services new business with growth falling to the slowest in 11 months.

For the first time in five months, outstanding business for service providers increased slightly and survey participants reported delayed client payments.

According to the index, service providers observed a rise in staffing levels in June but not significantly high. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

"The Indian service sector saw a further cooling of growth momentum in June, the third in consecutive months, with a weaker rise in new business leading to a softer expansion in activity," said De Lima.

Though factory employment was broadly unchanged in June, additional hiring indicated greater output requirements.

Interestingly, input prices in service sector rose for the ninth consecutive month in June, petrol and vegetables being on the higher side while rate of cost inflation was moderate, lower than the long-run trend.

Service providers charges however continued to rise in June, as they passed on the higher cost burdens. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
Though activity growth over the coming year is slated to be backed by aggressive marketing campagins, concerns on competitive pressures has been highlighted.

"Nonetheless, India remains a leading performer within emerging markets at a time when many of its peers are struggling," added De Lima. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


Global Markets & News-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Contact Your Financial Adviser MONEY MAKING MC

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU16 -0.61%) are down -0.67% and European stocks are down sharply by -2.09% on concern the fallout from Brexit will slow global economic growth. Late Tuesday, New York Fed President Dudley warned that the risks from Brexit could escalate if it triggers turmoil beyond the UK. A decline in European bank stocks is leading the overall market lower after BlackRock downgraded European stocks to underweight, with a negative view on the Eurozone banking sector due to fallout from Brexit. European stocks were also undercut after German May factory orders came in weaker than expected. On the positive side, mining stocks and gold producers are higher as the price of gold (GCQ16 +1.22%) rose to a 2-1/3 year high. GBP/USD is down -0.27% to a fresh 31-year low, while global government bond yields fell further into uncharted territory. The German 10-year bund yield slid to a record low of -0.205%, the UK 10-year gilt yield fell to a record low 0.729% and the U.S. 10-year T-note yield dropped to a record low 1.318%. Asian stocks settled mostly lower: Japan -1.85%, Hong Kong -1.23%, China +0.36%, Taiwan -1.61%, Australia -0.58%, South Korea -2.05%, Singapore and India closed for holiday. China's Shanghai Composite rallied to a 2-1/2 month high on speculation the government will boost measures to spur economic growth in the wake of the fallout from Brexit. Japan's Nikkei Stock Index fell to a 1-week low as exporter stocks declined after USD/JPY slid to a 1-week low, which reduces the earnings prospects of exporters.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.04%) is down -0.05%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.05%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -1.39% at a 1-week low.
Sep T-note prices (ZNU16 +0.18%) are up +7.5 ticks at a 3-1/2 year nearest-futures high. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
BOE Governor Carney warned that the risks from Brexit have started to crystalize and "there is the prospect of a material slowing of the economy and that the number of vulnerable households could increase due to a tougher economic outlook." The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
German May factory orders were unch m/m and -0.2% y/y, weaker than expectations of +1.0% m/m and +0.9% y/y.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) weekly MBA mortgage applications (previous -2.6% with purchase sub-index -3.0% and refi sub-index -2.4%), (2) May trade balance (expected -$40.0 billion, Apr -$37.4 billion), (3) Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo speaks at an event in Washington D.C. on financial regulation and monetary policy, (4) revised Jun Markit U.S. services PMI (expected unchanged at 51.3, prelim-Jun unch at 51.3), (5) Jun ISM non-manufacturing PMI (expected +0.4 to 53.3, May -2.8 to 52.9), and (6) minutes of the June 14-15 FOMC meeting.
Russell 1000 companies reporting earnings today: Walgreens Boots Alliance (consensus $1.14), MSC Industrial Direct (1.00).
U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: none.
Equity conferences this week include: none. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions 

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Netflix (NFLX +1.28%) fell over 2% in pre-market trading after it was downgraded to 'Underperform' from 'Hold' at Jeffries on subscriber growth concerns,
Royal Gold (RGLD +0.44%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at Dundee with a 12-month price target of $85. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
Teledyne Technologies (TDY -1.64%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at CL King with a 12-month target price of $107.
Dow Chemical (DOW -1.57%) was downgraded to 'Underperform' from 'Outperform' at CLSA. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
U.S. Steel (X -3.45%) was upgraded to 'Hold' from 'Sell' at Deutsche Bank.
Harley Davidson (HOG -10.84%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at UBS.
Newmont Mining (NEM +0.10%) and Coeur Mining (CDE +1.24%) both are up over 2% in pre-market trading as the price of gold climbed to a 2-1/3 year high.
Biogen (BIIB -1.24%) rose over 1% in after-hours trading on positive carryover from Tuesday's decision by the European Commission to approve Biogen and Abbvie's Zinbryta for treating relapsing forms of multiple sclerosis.
Ventas (VTR +0.83%) said it will acquire a group of medical and life-science properties from Blackstone Group LP for $1.5 billion.
Comcast (CMCSA -0.41%) dropped over 1% in after-hours trading on negative carryover from Tuesday's session when the company said it will incorporate Netflix's web-streaming services from Comcast cable boxes.
Tesla (TSLA -1.16%) slid over 1% in after-hours trading after the Detroit Free Press reported a Tesla Model X was in Autopilot mode when it crashed and rolled over on the Pennsylvania Turnpike on July 1.
Medivation (MDVN +2.73%) gained over 1% in after-hours trading after Reuters reported that it is in talks with Sanofi and other companies after it recently rejected a raised bid from Sanofi. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

MARKET COMMENTS

September E-mini S&Ps (ESU16 -0.61%) this morning are down -14.00 points (-0.67%). Tuesday's closes: S&P 500 -0.68%, Dow Jones -0.61%, Nasdaq -0.60%. The S&P 500 on Tuesday closed lower on concern about Brexit fallout after Standard Life Investments suspended trading in its 2.9 billion pound ($3.9 billion) fund after seeing a surge in redemption requests. Stocks were also undercut by weakness in energy producers after crude oil prices plunged -4.9%.
Sep 10-year T-note prices (ZNU16 +0.18%) this morning are up +7.5 ticks at a 3-1/2 year nearest-futures high. Tuesday's closes: TYU6 +26.00. FVU6 +11.00. Sep T-notes on Tuesday rose to a 1-week high and closed higher, while the 10-year T-note yield fell to an all-time low of 1.354%. T-note prices were boosted by increased safe-haven demand with the sell-off in stocks and by carryover support from a rally in UK gilts and German bunds to all-time highs. T-note also received a boost from the slightly weaker-than-expected U.S. May factory orders of -1.0% (versus expectations of -0.9%). The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.04%) this morning is down -0.052 (-0.05%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0006 (-0.05%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -1.41 (-1.39%) at a 1-week low. Tuesday's closes: Dollar Index +0.517 (+0.54%), EUR/USD -0.0078 (-0.70%), USD/JPY -0.82 (-0.80%). The dollar index on Tuesday recovered from a 1-week low and closed higher on the decline in GBP/USD to a 31-year low and on weakness in EUR/USD on concern over contagion of the Brexit crisis to the rest of Europe. The dollar was undercut by safe-haven demand for the yen as USD/JPY fell to a 1-week low. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
Aug WTI crude oil (CLQ16 -1.33%) this morning is down -59 cents (-1.27%) at a 1-week low. Aug gasoline (RBQ16 -3.12%) is down -0.0360 (-2.52%) at a 2-3/4 month low. Tuesday's closes: CLQ6 -2.39 (-4.88%), RBQ6 -0.0848 (-5.60%). Aug crude and gasoline on Tuesday closed sharply lower with Aug gasoline at a 2-1/2 month low. Crude oil prices were undercut by the stronger dollar and by news that OPEC June oil production rose +240,000 bpd to a 5-month high of 32.88 million bpd.
The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions