Thursday, 6 October 2016

Global Markets & News-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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6 October 2016

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ16 -0.16%) are down -0.21% and European stocks are down -0.24% as speculation mounts that the Fed will raise interest rates this year. Friday's monthly U.S. payroll report will be scoured for clues as to the timing of a Fed rate hike after Richmond Fed President Lacker said Wednesday night that a strong U.S. jobs report is going to bolster the case for an interest rate increase sooner rather than later. Mining stocks are raw-material producing companies are leading the overall market lower as the price of copper (HGZ16 -0.46%) falls -0.46% to a 3-week low. Asian stocks settled mostly higher: Japan +0.47%, Hong Kong +0.69%, China closed for holiday, Taiwan +0.13%, Australia +0.55%, Singapore +0.12%, South Korea +0.83%, India -0.41%. Japan's Nikkei Stock Index climbed to a 4-week high after a rally in USD/JPY to a 1-month high fueled gains in exporting companies.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.23%) is up +0.20%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.16%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.14% at a 1-month high.

Dec 10-year T-note prices (ZNZ16 +0.05%) are up +3 ticks.

Richmond Fed President Lacker said a strong U.S. jobs report is going to bolster the case for an interest rate increase sooner rather than later, and that "every FOMC meeting is a live meeting" to raise interest rates. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Sep Challenger job cuts (Aug -21.8% y/y), (2) weekly initial unemployment claims (expected +2,000 to 256,000, previous +3,000 to 254,000) and continuing claims (expected +19,000 to 2.081 million, previous -46,000 to 2.062 million), (3) G-20 finance ministers and central bankers meet in Washington D.C., and (4) USDA weekly Export Sales.

Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: none.
U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: none.
Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: ACI European Biomass to Power Conference on Wed, Seaport Global Securities Dallas Energy Day on Thu. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Twitter (TWTR +5.74%) tumbled 13% in pre-market trading after Alphabet said it is not interested in acquiring the company.
Trade Desk (TTD +3.99%) was rated a new 'Buy' at Cantor Fitzgerald with a 12-month target price of $30.

Raytheon (RTN -0.03%) was rated a new 'Outperform' at Baird with a 12-month target price of $170.

Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA +0.34%) was rated a new 'Buy' at UBS with a price target of $94.

Yum! Brands (YUM -1.84%) slid over 2% in pre-market trading after it reported Q3 adjusted EPS of $1.09, less than consensus of $1.10, and said Q3 China comparable sales fell -1%, weaker than expectations of +4.1%.
Athenahealth (ATHN +0.58%) was rated a new 'Buy' at UBS with a price target of $147.

Zumiez (ZUMZ -1.03%) rallied over 10% in after-hours trading after it said Sep comparable sales were up +6.3%, stronger than expectations of down-0.4%, and after it raised its view on Q3 EPS to 29 cents-30 cents from a prior view of 21 cents-26 cents.

Resources Connection (RECN +1.35%) fell 3% in after-hours trading after it reported Q1 EPS of 15 cents, below consensus of 16 cents.
JD.com (JD +1.60%) jumped nearly 7% in after-hours trading after Wal-Mart raised its stake in the company to 10.8% from 5.9%.

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +2.52%) plunged nearly 40% in after-hours trading after the company said it will discontinue development of its reusiran saying the benefit-risk profile no longer supported continued dosing.

Scynexis (SCYX +6.90%) surged over 15% in after-hours trading after it reported full results from Phase 2 studies on patients using its SCY-078 for candida infections.
Idera Pharmaceuticals (IDRA +2.35%) slumped over 10% in after-hours trading after offering up to $50 million in shares of common stock. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

MARKET COMMENTS

Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ16 -0.16%) this morning are down -4.50 points (-0.21%). Wednesday's closes: S&P 500 +0.43%, Dow Jones +0.62%, Nasdaq +0.38%. The S&P 500 on Wednesday closed higher on the +5.7 point increase in the U.S. Sep ISM non-manufacturing PMI to 57.1, stronger than expectations of +1.6 to 53.0 and the fastest pace of expansion in 11 months. The stock market was also encouraged by the unexpected +0.2% increase in U.S. Aug factory orders, stronger than expectations of -0.2%. Energy producer stocks rallied after the price of crude oil climbed to a 3-1/4 month high.

Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ16 +0.05%) this morning are up +3 ticks. Wednesday's closes: TYZ6 -9.00, FVZ6 -5.25. Dec 10-year T-notes on Wednesday sold off to a 3-week low and closed lower on Chicago Fed President Evans' comment that he expects a Fed rate hike before the end of the year. Other negative factors including the stronger-than-expected Sep ISM non-manufacturing index and increased inflation expectations after the 10-year T-note breakeven inflation rate rose to a 4-1/2 month high.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.23%) this morning is up +0.197 (+0.20%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0018 (-0.16%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.14 (+0.14%). Wednesday's closes: Dollar index -0.044 (-0.05%), EUR/USD +0.0001 (+0.01%), USD/JPY +0.60 (+0.58%). The dollar index on Wednesday closed slightly lower on the smaller-than-expected increase in Sep ADP employment and on strength in the currencies of the crude-exporting countries of Russia and Canada after the price of crude oil climbed to a 3-1/4 month high. The dollar found support on Chicago Fed President Evans' comment that he expects the Fed to increase interest rates once by the end of the year.


Nov WTI crude oil (CLX16 -0.14%) this morning is down -6 cents (-0.12%) and Nov gasoline (RBX16 -1.43%) is down -0.0218 (-1.46%). Wednesday's closes: Nov crude +1.01 (+2.07%), Nov gasoline -0.0180 (-1.20%). Nov crude oil and gasoline on Wednesday settled mixed with Nov crude at a 3-1/4 month high. Crude oil prices were boosted by the unexpected decline in EIA crude inventories for a fifth week, down -2.98 million bbl to an 8-month low (versus expectations were for a build of +1.5 million bbl) and the -0.4% decline in U.S. crude production. There was also concern that Hurricane Matthew may disrupt crude supplies on the East Coast and cause a further drawdown in U.S. crude supplies in the weeks ahead. Nov gasoline retreated from a 1-1/2 month high and closed lower on speculation that Hurricane Matthew will cause gasoline demand to plunge as businesses close and economic activity declines as the hurricane makes its way up the U.S. East Coast.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Stagnant property prices and risk aversion may lead to higher delinquencies in urban portfolio: Report -The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Contact Your Financial Adviser Money Making MC
6 October 2016
 
property-prices (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)
Delinquencies in India's non-banking financier's loan against property (LAP) portfolio could significantly increase in the next four quarters and may even exceed 5% on a static basis for a few players, says India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra). The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions 

In a research note, the ratings agency says, "A combination of stagnant property prices especially in metros and large cities, which are the primary markets for large and medium ticket LAP, and squeeze on refinancing due to risk aversion building up in some financiers is bringing stress to the fore.” The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
 
property-prices 1 (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)
Ind-Ra sees signs of early stress in the LAP business loan pools assessed by it, including a sharp rise in 90 days past due delinquencies for some of the large players. 

Ind-Ra analysed data from the LAP portfolios generated over the last five years and observed that all loans, irrespective of their years of origination, are experiencing a concurrent rise in delinquencies in 2016. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions 
 
property-prices 2 (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)
According to the ratings agency, the LAP market has now entered into a delicate phase with rising delinquencies accompanied by shrinking yields, thereby leaving limited buffers to absorb unexpected shocks. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The average lending rate in the urban high-ticket LAP segment has shrunk to close to 300 basis points (bp) from 500bp over State Bank of India (SBI)'s base rate, which in Ind-Ra's opinion may not be adequate to absorb any spike in credit costs. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
 
property-prices 3(The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)
Increasing acceptance of non-residential properties as collateral may impact liquidation recovery, the ratings agency says, adding, "The quest to expand loan portfolio in the face of intensive competition has diluted the use of risk mitigation practices. Non-residential properties, including industrial, commercial, freehold land, unoccupied residential property, among others are increasingly being accepted as collaterals. This proportion could go as high as 30% of the portfolio for some players. While loan-to-values (LTVs) are lower for non-residential properties, realisation on liquidation is also lower for these properties."
 
property-prices 4 (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)
Ind-Ra says its study on the recovery of SME loans pool acquired by asset reconstruction companies (ARCs) through non-residential collaterals indicates a poor recovery at 25% of principal outstanding (POS). The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The ratings agency says it believes that the eventual losses through the liquidation route could be higher than what is being priced in by non-banking financial institutions (NBFIs). 

Ind-Ra's rated transaction pool data for the housing loan mortgage portfolio acquired by asset reconstruction companies since 2006 show a recovery rate of over 100% of principal outstanding, but when adjusted for the time value it drops to 70%.  

Over the last few quarters, portfolio churn, through balance transfer among NBFIs, has been the significant driver of incremental loan growth. Additionally, a large segment of the market utilised third-party intermediaries to expand its loan portfolio. This has led to less than optimum credit assessment rigour. Furthermore, elevated balance transfer has led to inadequate seasoning for a part of the portfolio, the ratings agency added. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
 
property-prices 5 (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)
As per Ind-Ra observations, a small ticket LAP portfolio has shown a better performance than large ticket loans, though the portfolio is less seasoned. It says, "Newer geographies are facilitating volume growth and due to limited competitive intensity, are allowing lenders to price in the risk. Also, the recent applicability of SARFAESI Act (to systemically important NBFIs and on a loan amount higher than Rs1 crore) may improve portfolio performance as it could reduce slippages and improve recovery." The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


As per the ratings agency, credit appraisal systems based on borrower cash-flow assessment and standardised valuation practices would be critical risk mitigants. "We expects players with largely residential mortgage collaterals to fare well on asset quality metrics. Finally, strong equity and liquidity buffers and matched asset liability profile would continue to differentiate players in this segment," Ind-Ra concluded.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Indian communication satellite GSAT-18 put into orbit -The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Contact Your Financial Adviser Money Making MC
6 October 2016

An Indian communication satellite GSAT-18 was successfully put into orbit by Ariane 5 rocket belonging to French company Arianespace on Thursday, Indian space agency said.

The rocket lifted off from its spaceport in Kourou (French Guiana). The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

According to Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) its Master Control Facility (MCF) at Hassan in Karnataka took control of GSAT-18 and performed the initial orbit raising activities by firing the motors onboard the satellite. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The satellite was placed in a circular geostationary orbit, ISRO said.

GSAT-18 is India's latest communication satellite with 48 transponders that receive and transmit communication signals. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The 3,404 kg satellite will provide services in normal C-band, upper extended C-band and Ku-bands of the frequency spectrum. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The satellite carries Ku-band beacon as well to help in accurately pointing ground antennas towards the satellite. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Its designed in-orbit operational life is about 15 years.

"It is now the fifth time this year that ArianeA5 has performed flawlessly, and this launch celebrates as well its 74th success in a row, now equalling (that of the predecessor) ArianeA4," Arianespace's Chairman Stephane Israel was quoted as saying in a statement issued by the company.

Apart from the Indian communication satellite, the Ariane 5 rocket put into orbit Australian Sky Muster II satellite. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Overall, Arianespace has won 86 percent of all geostationary launch contracts the country has opened to non-Indian launch systems - including those for GSAT-11 and GSAT-17, to be lofted on future missions from the Spaceport in French Guiana, the company said.

Carrying 12 transponders in Ku-band and another 24 in C-band, GSAT-18 will provide telecommunications services for India once in its final orbital position (74 deg. East), strengthening ISRO's current fleet of 14 operational satellites.


The Thursday flight was Arianespace's eighth of 11 launches targeted in 2016.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Three PSU banks cut MCLR -The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Contact Your Financial Adviser Money Making MC
6 October 2016

Three public sector banks -- Indian Overseas Bank (IOB), Bank of India and Syndicate Bank -- on Wednesday announced reduction in their marginal cost of funds-based lending rate (MCLR) for various tenors. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

City-based IOB, in a statement issued here, said its MCLR for one year is reduced to 9.50 per cent from 9.55 per cent with effect from October 1. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Similarly, Syndicate Bank said it has cut its MCLR for one year to 9.45 per cent from 9.55 per cent effective from October 7. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


On its part, Bank of India said its one year MCLR will be 9.35 per cent effective from October 7.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Nifty, Sensex lose momentum; may decline a bit – Thursday closing report -The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Contact Your Financial Adviser Money Making MC
6 October 2016

I had mentioned in Wednesday’s closing report that Nifty, Sensex were still on a short-term uptrend. The major indices of the Indian stock markets were range-bound on Thursday and closed with small losses over Wednesday’s close. NSE trading volumes were however high. The trends of the major indices in the course of Thursday’s trading are given in the table below: The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
 
Major Indices (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)
Negative global markets, coupled with lower crude oil prices and a weak rupee, dented the equity markets during the mid-afternoon trade session on Thursday. Selling pressure was witnessed in automobile, banking and IT (information technology) stocks. The BSE market breadth was tilted in favour of the bulls -- with 1,366 advances and 1,506 declines. On the NSE, there were 658 advances, 960 declines and 255 unchanged. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Initially on Thursday, the benchmark indices opened on a higher note in sync with their Asian peers. However, the global markets, especially the European markets, remained subdued over speculation on curtailment of stimulus measures by the European Central Bank (ECB). Besides, caution prevailed ahead of key US macro-data on jobs to be released on Friday. In addition, lower crude oil prices, profit booking and consolidation added to the downward trajectory. The short-covering rallies earlier in the week have been halted by consolidation and caution ahead of key global event risks, pointed out market analysts.

Three public sector banks -- Indian Overseas Bank (IOB), Bank of India and Syndicate Bank -- on Wednesday announced reduction in their marginal cost of funds-based lending rate (MCLR) for various tenors. City-based IOB, in a statement issued here, said its MCLR for one year is reduced to 9.50% from 9.55% with effect from October 1. Similarly, Syndicate Bank said it has cut its MCLR for one year to 9.45% from 9.55% effective from October 7. On its part, Bank of India said its one year MCLR will be 9.35% effective from October 7. In this context, the bond market is not likely to be more attractive for stock market investors in the immediate context. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The top gainers and top losers of the major indices are given in the table below:

Top Gainer (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

The closing values of the major Asian indices are given in the table below: The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
Asian Indices (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)



Wednesday, 5 October 2016

Nifty, Sensex still on a short-term uptrend – Wednesday closing report-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Contact Your Financial Adviser Money Making MC
5 October 2016

I had mentioned in Tuesday’s closing report that Nifty, Sensex might head higher. The major indices of the Indian stock markets were range-bound on Wednesday and closed with small losses over Tuesday’s close. However, trading volumes were on the higher side on the NSE. The trends of the major indices in the course of Wednesday’s trading are given in the table below: The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Major Indices (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

Negative global indices, coupled with profit booking and lower than expected macro-data, dragged the Indian equity markets during the mid-afternoon trade session on Wednesday. Selling pressure was witnessed in banking, IT and oil and gas stocks. On the BSE, there were 1,739 advances, 1,142 declines and 123 unchanged. On the NSE, there were 841 advances, 598 declines and 43 unchanged. Investors were seen reluctant to chase prices after several days of rise, pointed out market analysts. Negative European markets and disappointing Services PMI figure, too, dragged the key indices lower. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


Anil Ambani-led Reliance Infrastructure on Wednesday said it is selling its entire transmission assets to Adani Transmission. The deal size was not divulged, but banking sources estimated it at over Rs 2,000 crore. Reliance Infrastructure owns the country's first 100% private sector transmission project -- the Western Region System Strengthening Scheme -- in Maharashtra, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka. Reliance Infrastructure also owns 74 per cent in Parbati Koldam Transmission located in Himachal Pradesh and Punjab in a joint venture with Power Grid Corp. All three transmission projects have been completed and are revenue-generating, the company said in a statement. "The entire sale proceeds from the transaction will be utilized for debt reduction," the company said, adding that SBI Capital Markets is their financial advisor for the transaction. "The transaction is in line with the strategic plan of monetizing non-core business and focus on growth areas like defence and engineering, procurement and construction business." The cement business has been monetised and that of roads and Mumbai power are in advanced stages. The company’s shares closed at Rs591.05, up 0.22% on the BSE.

The Union Cabinet here on Wednesday approved "mini Ratna" public sector undertaking HLL Lifecare to sub-lease its 330.10 acres of land at Chengalpattu, located in the outskirts of Chennai, to set up a medical devices manufacturing park (Medipark) through a special purpose vehicle. The shareholding of HLL in the project, which is expected, would be above 50%, it added. The Medipark project will be the first manufacturing cluster in the medical technology sector in the country, envisaged to boost the local manufacturing of hi-end products at a significantly lower cost, resulting in affordable healthcare delivery, particular in diagnostic services to a large section of people. "Medipark will be developed in phases, spread over seven years for completion. In the first phase, physical infrastructure will be developed and plots will be leased from third year onwards. Knowledge management centre will be developed in the second phase," it said. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

State-run oil marketers again raised transport fuel prices effective from Wednesday on account of hikes in dealer commission, by 10 paise for diesel and 14 paise for petrol, inclusive of local taxes in Delhi, with corresponding increase in other states. "There will be corresponding price revisions on petrol and diesel in other states on account of change in dealer commission," Indian Oil Corp said in a statement. Indian Oil shares closed at Rs615.00, up 0.36% on the BSE.

Implementing the Goods and Services Tax (GST) could produce a short-lived pass-through impact on the inflation trajectory, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said on Tuesday. Announcing its first bi-monthly monetary policy review decided by a committee, RBI, in its monetary policy statement, also said an 18 per cent GST rate would not have any material impact on retail inflation. "While the creation of a unified goods and services market in the country would reduce supply chain rigidities, cut down on transportation costs and also bring down costs in general through improvements in productivity, it could also produce a short-lived pass-through to the inflation trajectory," RBI said. The central bank said the impact of implementation of GST on consumer price-indexed inflation would largely depend on the standard rate that would be decided by the GST Council. In the forthcoming year, if both interest rates and inflation remain moderate, stock market investors in India are in for a good time. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The top gainers and top losers of the major indices are given in the table below:

Top Gainer (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)


The closing values of the major Asian indices are given in the table below: The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
Asian Indices (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)