Thursday, 17 November 2016

Cash withdrawal concessions to farmers, agri-traders, weddings -The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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17 November 2016

In a bid to ensure a smooth sowing season, the government on Thursday allowed farmers to withdraw up to Rs 25,000 per week from their designated bank accounts and a similar additional amount credited to their bank towards produce they sell to state agencies. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

This apart, traders who are registered with the Agricultural Produce Marketing Committees can withdraw up to Rs 50,000 per week for a smooth procurement process, Economic Affairs Secretary Shaktikanta Das told reporters here. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

"Agriculture is an important component. We are at the commencement of the Rabi season. We want to ensure farmers get smooth supply of fertilizers and other items," Das said. 

While concessions have been made for families that have an upcoming wedding, the amount of money that an individual can exchange by handing over the old Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes in banks has been lowered to Rs 2,000 from Friday, the official said. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

He said a member of the family that has an upcoming wedding can withdraw up to Rs 250,000 subject to one of the members furnishing the PAN card details and also providing an undertaking that no other member will withdraw such an amount for that purpose.


Two other decisions taken on Thursday are: A 15-day extension in the payment of crop insurance and an allowance for withdrawing Rs 10,000 as advance for central government employees up to Group 'C' to be adjusted against their November salary.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Indian banks in China not to accept scrapped bank notes -The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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17 November 2016

Indians living in China cannot deposit the scrapped currency notes of Rs500 and Rs1,000 at Indian bank branches here. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The Indian embassy in an advisory said the demonetised bank notes "cannot be deposited at branches of Indian banks located in China or Hong Kong". The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

One will have to authorise in writing enabling another person in India to deposit the notes into his or her bank account. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

"The person so authorised has to go to the bank branch with the specified bank notes, the authority letter given by you and a valid identity proof," the embassy said.

Thousands of Indians live in China, mostly in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou.

Of the seven India banks here, two are from the private sector.

"I couldn't be more grateful," Isha Luthra, who works in Beijing, reacted sarcastically. "I am glad I have a trip back home before December 30," Luthra told IANS. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

December 30 is the last date to deposit or exchange the spiked currency.


India on November 8 announced the scrapping of Rs500 and Rs1,000 rupee notes to battle corruption and black money.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Moody's retains India's rating, mood not right for upgrade-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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17 November 2016

Global credit rating agency Moody's Investors Service (Moody's) on Wednesday affirmed the Indian government's Baa3 issuer and senior unsecured ratings and maintained the positive outlook on the rating. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Moody's has also affirmed India's P-3 short-term local currency rating.

Last week it was Standard and Poor's that affirmed its "BBB-/A-3" rating with stable outlook for India. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

In a statement, Moody's said: "We are affirming our 'BBB-' long-term and 'A-3' short-term sovereign credit ratings on India. The stable outlook balances India's sound external position and inclusive policy making tradition against the vulnerabilities stemming from its low per capita income and weak public finances." The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

According to Moody's, maintaining a positive outlook on the Baa3 rating rather than assigning a stable outlook to the rating at either Baa3 or Baa2 is based on two drivers:

(a) Economic and institutional reforms introduced since the positive outlook was assigned earlier and potential further reforms, the reasonable expectation that India's growth will outperform that of its peers over the medium term and further improvement in India's macro-economic and institutional profits. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

(b) However, the government's reform efforts has not achieved the conditions that would support an upgrade to Baa2, in particular, in accelerating private investment to support high, stable growth without which the government's debt burden -- a key constraint on the rating -- is likely to remain high for a sustained period. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Moody's said it would consider an upgrade upon evidence that institutional strengthening -- infrastructure improvement, revival in private investment, labour reforms, fiscal discipline, progress in implementation of bankruptcy law, resolution of bad loans and others -- will elicit sustained macro-economic stability, higher levels of investment and more favourable fiscal dynamics. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

According to Moody's, the positive outlook indicates that the likelihood of a rating downgrade is very low. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

"We could revise India's rating outlook to stable if economic, fiscal and institutional strengthening appeared unlikely, or banking system metrics remained weak or balance of payments risks rose," Moody's said.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Sensex, Nifty getting oversold – Thursday closing report-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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17 November 2016

I had mentioned in Wednesday’s closing report that Nifty, Sensex were to remain under pressure. The major indices of the Indian stock markets were range-bound on Thursday and closed with small losses over Wednesday’s close. The caution among investors was clear from the lower than normal NSE trading volumes. Nifty closed down 31.65 points or 0.39% to close at 8,079.95.The trends of the major indices in the course of Thursday’s trading are given in the table below: The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
 
Major Indices (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)
The primary reason indices opened on a flat note was that investors were cautious over possible rate hike by US Federal Reserve's Chairman Janet Yellen.  A hike can potentially lead foreign portfolio investors (FPI) and funds away from emerging markets such as India, and dent the business margins of corporate sector, as access to capital from the US will become more expensive. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Besides, global sentiments continued to remain subdued on worries over trade restrictions with the US as a result of the surprise victory of Republican Donald Trump in the November 8 US Presidential election prevailed in the global markets. On the domestic front, the political bickering over the government's demonetisation move and its impact on the winter session of Parliament, too, eroded investors' confidence with it being adjourned.

USD/INR showed some relief with the Indian rupee appreciating The Indian rupee strengthened by 13 paise to 67.82 against a US dollar from its previous close of 67.95. Astha Jain, Senior Research Analyst at Hem Securities said "Investors were jittery ahead of the US Fed's Janet Yellen's speech later in the evening,” The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


IT and banking stocks failed to sustain at higher levels, while pharma, auto and cement stocks traded down on selling pressure. However, oil-gas and textile stocks traded with firm sentiments on buying support at lower levels, while FMCG, power and media-entertainment stocks traded lower on continuous selling pressure from traders. The S&P BSE IT index plunged by 130.19 points, the Teck (technology, media and entertainment) index declined by 86.63 points, and the telecom index fell by 27.78 points. In contrast, the S&P BSE healthcare index surged by 53.76 points, the metal index rose by 50.89 points, and the oil and gas index edged up by 41.08 points.

Data with exchanges showed that the foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold stocks worth Rs 988.93 crore, and the domestic institutional investors (DIIs) purchased scrip worth Rs 1,144.15 crore. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


On the NSE, there were 491 advances, 1,019 declines and 43 unchanged. On the BSE, there were 943 advances, 1,671 declines and 158 unchanged

The top gainers and top losers of the major indices are given below:
 
Top Gainer (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

The closing values of the major Asian indices are given in the table below:The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
Asian Indices (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

Wednesday, 16 November 2016

Don't support bankers helping currency hoarders: Bank union -The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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16 November 2016

A major bank union on Wednesday said it does not support unscrupulous bankers who do not follow the prescribed procedures and who assist currency hoarders to convert their invalid 500 and 1,000 rupee notes. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

"I am ashamed to hear about bankers who do not follow prescribed procedures while exchanging the invalid currency notes for valid ones. But the system is such that I cannot say all are angels," All India Bank Employees' Association General Secretary C.H.Venkatachalam told IANS.

"The union does not support such acts or those indulging in such acts," he added.

Complaints have been voiced by customers of some banks that somebody else has exchanged the demonetised currency notes, using their accounts with the assistance of bank employees.

The Reserve Bank of India in its instructions has clearly said that a person who does not have a bank account can exchange the 500/1,000 rupee notes using a bank account of his relative/friend having an account only on written permission. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Queried about the supplies of indelible ink to curb multiple note exchange transactions by a single person, Venkatachalam said the bottles are yet to arrive at the branch level.


Meanwhile an employee of a nationalised bank in the Coimbatore/Tiruppur belt told IANS that the situation seems to be improving as customers are now depositing some Rs 100 notes and the length of queue for cash has gone down.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Demonetisation: MFIs like Bharat Financial hit by cash crunch in near term -The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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16 November 2016
Microfinance (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

Micro finance institutions (MFIs) like Bharat Financial Inclusion Ltd -BHAF (erstwhile SKS Microfinance) are facing severe cash crunch, which is hurting their collections and disbursement. However, it is too early to conclude that there will be high loan defaults or weakening of credit culture in MFIs, says a research note. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

In the report, Morgan Stanley, says, "MFIs such as BHAF disburse almost 100% in cash and also collect in cash. Hence, discontinuation of large denomination currencies (86% of cash in circulation) hurts both collections and disbursements. While there will likely be rise in over dues, unless the cash crunch extends beyond two months (ending in mid-January 2017 i.e., the next reporting quarter), we are unlikely to see non-performing loans (NPLs) technically." The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The NPLs at Bharat Financial is on a 60 days past due (dpd). Despite the present situation, Morgan Stanley says it sees the MFI to maintain its efficiency in collection and disbursement. "With respect to credit culture, unlike the Andhra Pradesh (AP) MFI crisis, there is no conflict vis-a-vis the government. Further, even when the non-AP loan book was being wound down during second quarter of FY11 to first quarter of FY13, the company saw a collection efficiency of 97%. Key risk-mitigating factors are also sensitivity to credit score by credit bureaus and the fact that credit from informal channels is likely to be difficult in the near to medium term." The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

According to the report, earning impact on BHAF would be limited assuming stable asset quality. "We assume significant loss of business in F2Q17, with the focus mainly on collections. If we assume that disbursements are flat to down 50% vis-à-vis the recent run rate of 50-60%, FY17 earnings per share (EPS) is likely to be impacted by 5-10%, without giving the benefit of a potential much higher growth in F417," it added.
Microfinance1 (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

Morgan Stanley feels BHAF is better positioned than other non-banking finance companies (NBFCs) with a high share in cash collections. It says, "BHAF disburses via the joint liability group (JLG) mechanism with a low average outstanding per borrower of about Rs16,500. Occupational activities being carried by borrowers are also very basic in nature, with less sensitivity to the economy. While these loans are unsecured, there is significant social collateral, owing to the group-lending mechanism – thus there is good distribution of risk. There is also sensitivity to credit score, given significant credit bureau coverage." The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


Other NBFCs take relatively much larger credit risk on individuals with a better economic background but also with a weak credit profile. Loans are collateralised, but sensitivity to credit bureaus and social pressure is relatively low, whereas sensitivity of borrowers' earnings to economic trends is high. Also, with MFI loan instalments per borrower being much smaller (Rs300-500 per week) against Rs10,000-Rs30,000 per month for other NBFCs, the situation is more manageable with currency of lower denomination. Further, as normalcy in cash flows returns, repayments from MFI borrowers will likely pick up faster, Morgan Stanley added.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Axis Bank cuts cost of lending rate by 0.15%-0.20% from Friday -The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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16 November 2016

Private sector Axis Bank on Wednesday announced a cut in its marginal cost of fund-based lending rate (MCLR) by 0.15%-0.20% effective coming Friday. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

"Axis Bank reviews and reduces the MCLR by 15 basis points (bps) or 0.15% across all tenures up to 1 year and by 20 bps for 2-year and 3-year tenures. The reduced MCLRs will take effect starting 18 November, 2016," the lender said in a statement here. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

For loans of overnight tenure, the new MCLR will be 8.65%. One-month tenure will attract a rate of 8.70% while those for three and six months will be 8.90% and 9%, respectively. 

For one year, the new MCLR will be 9.05%. The bank will levy interest rate of 9.10% and 9.15% for two years and three years, respectively. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Following the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cutting its repo rate by 25 bps last month, public sector lenders United Bank of India, Canara Bank, Indian Bank, Indian Overseas Bank, Bank of India and Syndicate Bank, as well as private sector ICICI Bank and Kotak Mahindra Bank, have cut lending rates.

To nudge banks to transfer the benefit of RBI rate cuts, previous Governor Raghuram Rajan had announced a shift to the MCLR regime. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Under the MCLR, banks need to consider their marginal cost of funds, or the cost incurred on incremental deposits across different maturities, to decide on interest rates.

However, though Rajan -- during his tenure -- had cut rates by 150 bps since January 2015, banks had hardly moved at the same pace to cut their lending rates.


From the state-run banks' point of view, their accumulation of massive non-performing assets (NPAs), or bad loans, that is impacting profitability, is keeping them from cutting rates.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions.

Android smartphones in US sending personal data to China: Report -The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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16 November 2016

Security firm Kryptowire has identified Android smartphones with a "backdoor" software in the US that collected sensitive personal data and transmitted this data to third-party servers in China without disclosure or the users' consent. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

These devices were available through major US-based online retailers like Amazon and BestBuy and included popular smartphones such as BLU R1 HD devices, Kryptowire said in a statement on Wednesday. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

"The core of the monitoring activities took place using a commercial Firmware Over The Air (FOTA) update software system that was shipped with the Android devices we tested and were managed by Shanghai Adups Technology Co. Ltd," Kryptowire said.

These devices actively transmitted user and device information including text messages, contact lists, call history with full telephone numbers, unique device identifiers including the International Mobile Subscriber Identity (IMSI) and the International Mobile Equipment Identity (IMEI).

Adups claims to have a worldwide presence with over 700 million active users, and a market share exceeding 70 per cent across over 150 countries and regions with offices in Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing, Tokyo, New Delhi and Miami. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

"The Adups website also stated that it produces firmware that is integrated in more than 400 leading mobile operators, semiconductor vendors, and device manufacturers spanning from wearable and mobile devices to cars and televisions," the Kryptowire statement read.

The firmware that shipped with the mobile devices and subsequent updates allowed for the remote installation of applications without the users' consent and, in some versions of the software, the transmission of fine-grained device location information. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The firmware also collected and transmitted information about the use of applications installed on the monitored device, bypassed the Android permission model, executed remote commands with escalated (system) privileges, and was able to remotely reprogramme the devices.

"Our findings are based on both code and network analysis of the firmware. The user and device information was collected automatically and transmitted periodically without the users' consent or knowledge,a the global security firm noted.

The collected information was encrypted with multiple layers of encryption and then transmitted over secure web protocols to a server located in Shanghai. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

This software and behaviour bypasses the detection of mobile anti-virus tools because they assume that software that ships with the device is not malware and thus, it is white-listed.

"We analysed the Personally Identifiable Information (PII) collected and transmitted in an encrypted format to servers in Shanghai, including one of the bestselling unlocked smartphones sold by major online retailers," Kryptowire added. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Kryptowire was jump-started by the US Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The security firm has communicated its findings with respect to the affected devices with Google, Amazon, Adups and BLU Products, Inc.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Nifty, Sensex to remain under pressure – Wednesday closing report-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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16 November 2016

I had mentioned in Tuesday’s closing report that Nifty, Sensex were trending lower. The major indices of the Indian stock markets ended flat on Wednesday. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
 
Major Indices (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)
The Indian equity markets on Wednesday closed on a flat note due to heavy selling pressure witnessed during the second half of the session. The key equity indices receded under the selling pressure in healthcare, consumer durables and banking stocks. Earlier, in the day's trade the equity markets made gains on the back of positive global indices, coupled with higher crude oil prices and value buying in selective counters. 

On the NSE, there were 616 advances, 873 declines and 57 unchanged. On the BSE, there were 1,048 advances, 1,553 declines and 153 unchanged.

China's yuan weakened to an eight-year low on Wednesday as expectations of higher U.S. interest rates buoyed the dollar, putting Beijing's commitment to market-oriented reforms in the spotlight as fierce critic Donald Trump prepares to take office, according to  a Reuters report. The yuan has now depreciated 5.4% against the dollar so far this year. Trump has threatened to label
China a currency manipulator on his first day in office and has threatened to slap punitive tariffs on Chinese imports. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions 

The Indian IT-BPM industry is poised to grow at 8-10% in the financial year 2017, demonstrating sustained growth despite global headwinds, IT industry's representative organisation Nasscom said on Wednesday. Sharing its revised guidance as part of its mid-year performance review of the IT-BPM industry, Nasscom reiterated that the industry remains in a strong position as it charts the future growth path for itself. According to the guidance, India will continue to gain market share – 7% of global software and IT services and 56% of global sourcing. "The industry is going through a transient phase with various domestic and global factors impacting its performance. While the effect of various short-term factors may show for a couple more quarters, the worst is behind us," said R Chandrashekhar, Nasscom President, at an event. Driven by strong and stable fundamentals, Nasscom reiterated that the long term opportunity and potential for the industry remains unchanged with a vision to achieve $350 billion by 2025. "Global projected growth for the industry is high and our share remains strong. We are confident that the sector will continue to re-invent itself by investing in digital technologies and competencies, to drive consistent and sustained growth," he added. The Indian IT-BPM industry will receive 14% revenues from digital solutions - four times growth since 2014. Software and IT services globally is set to grow at a healthy pace of 7.2% and 4.4%, respectively in 2017. The S & P BSE Information Technology index closed at 9,445.28, up 1.76%.

No respite seemed to be in sight for thousands of people queuing outside banks and ATMs in Uttar Pradesh on Wednesday, the seventh consecutive day after demonetisation of Rs 500 and 1000 notes, as cash arrival was not "up to the optimum", officials said. The crisis in some parts of the state, including the state capital Lucknow, deepened on Wednesday with bank officials telling the account holders that it might "be a little more time than expected" before the ATMs are adequately recalibrate with the new currency notes and start dispensing cash. The new rule of marking indelible ink on fingers to deter people from returning for cash exchange has also led to crisis as confusion over the issue prevailed. While some are angry that they are being "treated as thieves for their own money", some said. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The US dollar climbed against most major currencies as economic data from the country came out better than expected. In late New York trading on Tuesday, the euro fell to $1.0720 from $1.0729, and the British pound dipped to $1.2440 from $1.2491, Xinhua news agency reported. The Australian dollar rose to $0.7545 from $0.7540. The dollar bought 109.13 Japanese yen, higher than 108.42 yen in the previous session.  The dollar inched up to 1.0021 Swiss francs from 0.9985 Swiss francs, and it fell to 1.3468 Canadian dollars from 1.3560 Canadian dollars. The US Commerce Department announced on Tuesday that advance estimates of US retail and food services sales for October increased 0.8% from the previous month to $465.9 billion, beating market consensus of a 0.6% gain. The positive sales data bolstered market speculation for an interest-rate hike by year-end. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against six major peers, was up 0.09 percent to 100.200 in late trading. The greenback had been increasing for five consecutive sessions as President-elect Donald Trump's potential economic policies boosted market expectation for further interest-rate increases. The strengthening of the US dollar means that foreign institutional investors will find it easy to invest in emerging markets like India with good regulatory systems. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The top gainers and top losers of the major indices are given in the table below:

Top Gainer (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)


The closing values of the major Asian indices are given in the table below:The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
Asian Indices (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)