Thursday, 3 May 2018

Nifty, Sensex May Head Higher – Thursday closing report-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


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3 May 2018

I had mentioned in Wednesday’s closing report that Nifty, Sensex might go sideways. The major indices of the Indian stock markets were range-bound on Thursday and closed with small losses over Wednesday’s close. On the NSE, there were 460 advances, 1,264 declines and 320 unchanged. The trends of the major indices in the course of Thursday’s trading are given in the table below: The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The key equity indices traded in the negative territory on Thursday following a decline in the global markets. Selling pressure on the capital goods, consumer durables and auto stocks also weighed on the indices. Asian shares opened in the red ahead of the Sino-US trade talks. The US Federal Reserve has held interest rates unchanged at its latest monetary policy review, while indicating that inflation in America is rising towards the central bank's medium-term target as a signal to investors of possible rate hikes later in 2018.

Demand for gold in India for January-March quarter (first quarter) of 2018 was down by 12% at 115.6 tonne compared to overall Q1 demand for 2017 due to rising gold prices, exaggerated by a weakening rupee, a World Gold Council statement said here on Thursday. This is likely to encourage the long term bullish trends in the Indian stock markets. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Sugar production in the country crossed a record 31 million tonnes mark this year and the total production will be around 32 million tonnes when the season ends, the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) said on Thursday. EID Parry India shares closed at Rs272.90, down 0.36% on the NSE.

Fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) major Wipro Consumer Care and Lighting plans to add two manufacturing locations, one in Andhra Pradesh, and the other in Guangzhou, China as the company's revenue crossed $1 billion-mark in 2017-18, a statement said here on Thursday. The two manufacturing units are expected to be operational in FY20. The statement said, the business crossed Rs6,630 crore with industry-leading growth both in India and overseas. "The key driver of growth this year was our ability to handle the GST transition in India. We proactively engaged with our distributors and partners and clarified their doubts about GST. This gave us momentum in June - July 2017, leading to 18 per cent growth in the India business in FY18. Distribution also improved especially post GST implementation. Santoor and Garnet LED brands did particularly well," said Vineet Agrawal, CEO, Wipro Consumer Care and Lighting. Wipro Consumer Care clocked 50% of its revenue from International markets where Malaysia crossed $145 million, followed by China at $120 million. Indonesia, which had a sluggish first half also bounced back with a double-digit growth in the second half of 2017-18, the statement said. Among its brand portfolio, Santoor is the biggest with a turnover of about $300 million, followed by Enchanteur with $150 million. It has several $50 million plus brands with Yardley, Romano, Bio Essence, Safi and Garnett LEDs. "Home Care, Lighting and Digital are going to be some of the key thrust areas for us," said Agrawal.  Wipro Limited shares closed at Rs271.45, down 1.38% on the NSE. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Budget passenger carrier IndiGo reported a decline of 73.3% in its net profit for the quarter ended March 31, 2018. According to the airline, the net profit during the quarter under review fell to Rs117.64 crore from Rs440.30 crore reported for the corresponding period of 2016-17. "Results include certain credits received from manufacturers to offset some of the impact of aircraft groundings and delivery delays," IndiGo said in a statement. However, the low-cost carrier's revenue from operations grew by 19.6% to Rs5,799.11 crore for the quarter ended March 2018 compared to the same period last year. InterGlobe Aviation shares closed at Rs1,206.05, down 10.63% on the NSE.

Two-wheeler major Hero MotoCorp reported a rise of 34.78% in its net profit for the quarter ended March 31, 2018, to Rs967.40 crore from Rs717.75 crore reported in the corresponding period of the previous year. "With strong sales of 20,01,595 units in the fourth quarter of FY'18 (January-March 2018), Hero MotoCorp... reported Revenue from operations (net of excise duty) of Rs8,564.04 crore (vs. Rs6,922.80 crore in the corresponding quarter last year); a growth of 23.7%," the company said in a statement. Besides, the company reported a rise of 9.48% in its net profit for the financial year ended March 31, 2018 which increased to Rs3,697.36 crore from Rs3,377.12 crore reported for the previous corresponding period. "Riding on its highest-ever sales of 7,587,154 units in a financial year, the company registered revenue from operations (net of excise duty) of Rs32,230.49 crore, as compared to Rs28,500.46 crore; a growth of 13.1%." The company’s shares closed at Rs3,655.60, down 0.41% on the NSE.

State-run explorer Oil and Natural Gas Corp (ONGC) bid for 37 oil and gas blocks while private sector Vedanta Resources placed bids for all the 55 areas on offer in the first auction of oil and gas acreage under the new open acreage licensing policy (OALP), according to an official announcement. ONGC shares closed at Rs181.10, up 0.39% on the NSE. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The top gainers and top losers of the major indices are given in the table below:


The closing values of the major Asian indices are given in the table below: The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Major Indices (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)



Low investor confidence in India's growth story: Morgan Stanley-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


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3 May 2018
 
India growth story (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)
US investment banker Morgan Stanley said on Thursday that lower return expectations from the Indian stock market is due to persistent growth disappointment of past few years, signalling low investor confidence in the nation's growth story. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

In a research report, "Where has the India Story Vanished", the American financial services multinational said that within the country's aggregate investor base, this "erosion in confidence" was concentrated in foreign portfolio investors (FPIs), who have reduced their India position in the average emerging markets (EM) portfolio to a seven-year low. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Using "beta" as a measure of the volatility, or systematic risk, on returns from the Indian market as compared to EMs, report authors Ridham Desai and Sheela Rathi said India's beta in relation to EMs had fallen 37 per cent since December 2014 "to a 13-year low". The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

"Price action (i.e., beta) suggests that the India idiosyncratic story is at its weakest in history and India's returns are being driven largely by EM factors," the report said. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

"We think the fall in relative volatility is down due to persistent growth disappointment of the past few years. This probably means that investor confidence in India's growth story is low. 

"And within the aggregate investor base, this erosion in confidence is concentrated with foreign portfolio investors who have reduced their India position in the average EM portfolio into a seven-year low -- explaining the fall in India's relative volatility and beta versus EM," Desai and Rathi said. 

"Earnings have been in their deepest and longest earnings recession in history having lasted in excess of seven years and resulting in a 20 per cent drawdown from the top. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

"If we are right and the earnings cycle has troughed it may also mean that India has likely become a counter cyclical market," they added. 

In a report published on Wednesday, Morgan Stanley said that Asia's emerging market stock rally in late January may be dying down and earnings expectations were overly bullish. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) Emerging Market Asia Index has lost nearly 10 per cent since reaching its record high on January 29.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


India's gold demand dropped 12% in January-March quarter: World Gold Council -The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


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3 May 2018
 
Jewellery demand in India (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)


Demand for gold in India for January-March quarter (first quarter) of 2018 was down by 12 per cent at 115.6 tonne compared to overall Q1 demand for 2017 due to rising gold prices, exaggerated by a weakening rupee, a World Gold Council statement said here on Thursday. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Total Jewellery demand in India for Q1 2018 was down by 12 per cent at 87.7 tonne as compared to Q1 2017 (99.2 tonne).

"Local gold price rises led to the second weakest quarter for jewellery demand in almost 10 years. After the strongest Q4 on record in 2017, Indian jewellery demand saw a sharp downturn in Q1 2018, falling 12 per cent year-on-year to 87.7 tonnes," said Somasundaram PR, Managing Director, India, World Gold Council.

"A substantial drop in the number of auspicious wedding days during the period compared with Q1 2017, could be a factor for muted demand as consumers made less wedding-related purchases. Imports were also down 50 per cent year-on-year, in anticipation of an import duty cut in the Union Budget that did not materialise," he added. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

India's Q1 2018 gold demand value was Rs 31,800 crore, a fall of 8 per cent in comparison with Q1 2017 (Rs 34,440 crore).

Total Investment demand for Q1 2018 was down by 13 per cent at 27.9 tonne in comparison with Q1 2017 (32 tonne). Total gold recycled in India in Q1 2018 was 14.1 tonne, a drop of 3 per cent compared to 14.5 tonne in Q1 2017.

However, Somasundaram said: "The positive sentiment following the announcement in the Union Budget about an impending gold policy to make gold an asset class will boost the industry momentum to get more organised and transparent and build a strong case for a central gold body under the gold policy." The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

He said trade activity resumed positively during Akshaya Tritiya demonstrating the resilience of the industry. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

"Policy focus on doubling farm income and ease of business under GST augur well for the gold industry in 2018 and the medium term. New ways of buying gold through digital platforms are catching up quickly; this will not just promote ease of savings but bring about a mindset change, thereby enhancing acceptability of centrally vaulted gold - which underpins any attempt to mainstream gold including Gold Monetisation Scheme," he added.

According to World Gold Council, for year 2018, full year gold demand expectations for India is in the range of 700 - 800 tonne.

Globally, gold demand had a soft start to 2018, reaching 973 tonne, the lowest first quarter since 2008. This was largely caused by a fall in investment demand for gold bars and gold-backed exchange-traded funds, as a subdued gold price environment hampered demand, the statement said.

"Global jewellery demand was roughly flat at 488 tonne, down 1 per cent on Q1 2017. Demand in China was buoyed by holiday demand, and US demand continued to improve in response to the supportive economic backdrop. In contrast, Indian consumers were discouraged by rising gold prices, exaggerated by a weakening rupee, with demand down 12 per cent compared with 2017," it added.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Cabinet approves extension of scheme on doubling farm income -The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


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3 May 2018
 
Agri (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)
Keen to woo farmers ahead of the crucial electoral battles this year and the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP-led government on Wednesday approved an extension by two more years of a scheme that aims to double farmers' income by 2022. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs, chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, approved the continuation of the "Green Revolution - Krishonnati Scheme" beyond the 12th Plan till 2019-20 with a central share of Rs 33,269.976 crore. 

It aims to bring under one umbrella 11 agricultural schemes, besides their effective monitoring. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

There has been widespread concern about unremunerative prices to farmers for farm produce and inadequate access to loans and insurance. 

Farmers have agitated in different parts of the country, including Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and Tamil Nadu, on the issues in the past. 

The Bharatiya Janata Party's performance in the rural areas of Gujarat compared with urban centres in the Assembly polls last year was less than expected and the party has been seeking to increase its rural outreach. 

Apart from Karnataka's May 12 elections, Assembly elections remain to be held in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh during the year. 

The scheme, launched last year, will get a central share of Rs 33,279 crore for three fiscals -- 2017-18, 2018-19 and 2019-20.

"In order to fulfil the promise of doubling farmers' income, our government has taken the decision to club 11 schemes into one umbrella scheme. It is a historic decision," Union Minister Ravi Shankar Prasad told the media here.

These schemes aim to develop the agriculture and allied sectors in a holistic and scientific manner to increase the income of farmers by enhancing production, productivity and better returns on produce, according to an official release. 

These schemes are the Mission for Integrated Development of Horticulture, National Food Security Mission, National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture, Sub-Mission on Agricultural Mechanisation and Integrated Scheme on Agricultural Marketing. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The other schemes are Sub mission on Agriculture Extension, Sub Mission on Seeds and Planting Material, Sub Mission on Plant Protection and Plant Quarantine, Integrated Scheme on Agriculture Census, Economics and Statistics, Integrated Scheme on Agricultural Cooperation, and National e-Governance Plan. 

The schemes are aimed at creating and strengthening infrastructure for production, reducing production cost, as well as marketing of agricultural and allied products.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

World Shares Drift As Markets Mull Fed, China Trade Talks-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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3 May 2018
Hong kong financial markets (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)


Global stock markets were generally lower Thursday as investors analyzed the Fed's decision to keep interest rates unchanged and kept an eye out for developments from China-U.S. trade talks in Beijing.
KEEPING SCORE: In Europe, France's CAC 40 was down 0.3 percent at 5,155 while Germany's DAX fell 0.2 percent to 12,772. Britain's FTSE 100 dipped 0.1 percent to 7,539. Wall Street was set for a flat opening with Dow futures and the broader S&P 500 futures broadly unchanged.
FED STANDS PAT: In leaving rates unchanged, as investors and analysts had expected, the Fed said it expects to continue gradually raising them. The U.S. central bank also said inflation is approaching its 2 percent target after years of remaining undesirably low, though policymakers didn't suggest they're overly concerned that inflation will overshoot that.
TRADE TRIP: A U.S. delegation led by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin arrived in Beijing on Thursday for two days of talks with senior Chinese leaders in an effort to calm worsening friction over the trade imbalance between the world's two biggest economies. Prospects for a breakthrough looked uncertain given the intensifying rivalry over technology that underlies the dispute.
ANALYST TAKE: "European markets were on the back foot in early trade as investors digest the aftermath of the Fed's no-surprise rate hold and U.S.-China trade talks weigh," said Neil Wilson, chief market analyst at Markets.com. "The Fed left rates on hold as expected and signaled that it's unlikely to respond too aggressively if we get some hot summer inflation readings this year."
ASIAN SCORECARD: Hong Kong's benchmark Hang Seng index dropped 1.2 percent to close at 30,313.37 and South Korea's Kospi dipped 0.7 percent to end at 2,487.25. The Shanghai Composite index rose 0.6 percent to 3,100.86 and Australia's S&P/ASX 200 advanced 0.8 percent to 6,098.30.
ENERGY: Oil futures drifted lower. Benchmark U.S. crude fell 6 cents to $67.87 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange while Brent crude, the international standard, was down 39 cents to $72.97 per barrel in London. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
CURRENCIES: The euro was up 0.3 percent at $1.1986 while the dollar fell 0.6 percent to 109.21 yen.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Wednesday, 2 May 2018

Nifty, Sensex On an Uptrend – Tuesday closing report-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


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2 May 2018

I had mentioned in Monday’s closing report that Nifty, Sensex were headed for more gains. On Tuesday, the Indian stock markets were closed for trading. The major indices of the Indian stock markets were range-bound on Wednesday and ended with minor losses over Monday’s close. On the NSE, there were 402 advances, 1,126 declines and 47 unchanged. The trends of the major indices in the course of Wednesday’s trading are given in the table below: The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
 
Healthy quarterly earnings and robust automobile sales pushed the key Indian equity indices to trade higher during Wednesday's mid-afternoon session. According to market observers, buying was witnessed in the banking, automobile and FMCG (fast moving consumer goods stocks). But the gains were not sustained till the end of trading at 3:30 pm and the markets ended on a flat-to-negative note. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Asian equities eased on Wednesday, while the dollar traded near a four-month high as investors await the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy statement for clues on the future pace of U.S. monetary tightening, according to Reuters.

Software major HCL Technologies on Wednesday reported Rs2,227 crore consolidated net profit for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2017-18, posting 4.3% annual decline from Rs2,325 crore in the same period year ago (2016-17) but up 1.5% sequentially from Rs2,194 crore quarter ago. Net profit, however, grew 3.8% year-on-year (YoY) to Rs8,780 crore for the fiscal under review (FY 2018) from Rs8,457 crore in FY 2017. In a regulatory filing to the BSE, the Noida-based IT firm said consolidated revenue grew 9.3% YoY to Rs13,179 crore for the quarter under review (Q4) from Rs12,053 crore in the like period year ago and 2.9% sequentially from Rs12,808 crore quarter ago. Revenue for FY 2018 grew 8.2% YoY to Rs50,570 crore from Rs46,723 crore in FY 2017. Under the International Financial Reporting Standard (IFRS), net profit for the quarter slipped 1.7% YoY to $344 million from $350 million year ago but grew 1.1% sequentially from $340 million quarter ago. Net profit, however, grew 7.7% YoY to $1,360 million for the fiscal from $1,262 million year ago while revenue grew 12.4% YoY to $7,838 million from $6,975 million year ago. Revenue for the fiscal (FY 2018) grew 12.2% YoY to $ 7,838 million from $6,975 million in FY 2017. The company’s shares closed at Rs1,000.50, down 4.50% on the NSE.

Budget passenger carrier SpiceJet launched daily direct flight services between Delhi and Punjab's Adampur. According to the company, SpiceJet was awarded Adampur under the first round of the regional connectivity scheme UDAN and the city is the fifth destination for the airline under this scheme. In addition to Adampur, SpiceJet also launched daily services between Leh and Delhi from Tuesday. On Wednesday, the company’s shares closed at Rs131.90, up 1.70% on the BSE. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Lower extraction of crude oil and production of refinery products slowed the pace of India's eight major industries' output in March, official data showed on Tuesday. The Index of Eight Core Industries (ECI), which represent the output of major sectors like coal, steel, cement and electricity rose by 4.1% in March 2018 compared to an increase of 5.4% in February. Even on a year-on-year basis, the 'Index of Eight Core Industries' (ECI), which represent the output of major sectors like coal, steel, cement and electricity showed a downtrend. The index had registered a rise of 5.2% during the corresponding month of 2017. "The combined Index of Eight Core Industries stands at 138 in March, 2018, which was 4.1% higher as compared to the index of March, 2017," the Commerce & Industry Ministry said in a statement. "Its cumulative growth during April to March, 2017-18 was 4.2%." The ECI index carries 40.27% weightage of the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) which is the macro-gauge for India's factory output.

State-run Punjab National Bank (PNB) said that it will recover from the impact of the recent fraud in six months' time and is actively working to improve its internal systems by incorporating analytics and artificial intelligence (AI), as Niti Aayog CEO Amitabh Kant ruled out privatisation of banks. PNB shares closed at Rs92.80, down 2.67% on the NSE.

Dabur India reported a rise of 18.9% in consolidated net profit for the January-March 2018 quarter. According to the company, the consolidated net profit stood at Rs396.20 crore and consolidated revenue was Rs2,032.91 crore. For the financial year 2017-18, the fast moving consumer goods major reported a consolidated net profit of Rs1,354.39 crore, up 6.1%. "The board of directors recommended a dividend of 625%, including a final dividend of 125% and a one-time special dividend of 500%. This brings the total dividend for the year to 750%," said Anand C. Burman, Chairman, Dabur India.  He added: "To mark the 25th year of Dabur's listing on the stock exchanges, the board has proposed a special dividend of Rs5 per share in addition to the final dividend of Rs1.25 per share, aggregating to Rs1,327.25 crore, including dividend tax." The company’s shares closed at Rs371.80, up 0.30% on the NSE.

The top gainers and top losers of the major indices are given in the table below:


The closing values of the major Asian indices are given in the table below:
The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
 
Major Indices (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)