Nifty, Sensex Inching Up - Wednesday closing report-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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13 June 2018

I mentioned yesterday that the markets were trendng up. The major indices closed with gains. On the NSE, there were 852 advances, 936 declines and 81 unchanged. The trends of the major indices in the course of Wednesday’s trading are given in the table below: The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Broadly negative global markets ahead of US Federal Reserve's rate setting meet led the key domestic equity indices to provisionally close on a flat-to-positive note on Wednesday. According to market analysts, domestic indices had risen during the afternoon trade session on the back of higher April industrial production but soon ceded their gains. Besides, the day's trade saw healthy buying in IT, consumer durables and banking counters, whereas heavy selling prevailed in capital goods, metal and FMCG stocks. Sensex touched a high of 35,877.41 points and a low of 35,715.96 points during the intra-day trade. The BSE market breadth was slightly tilted towards the bears with 1,381 declines against 1,296 advances. The top gainers on the Sensex were Dr Reddy's Lab, Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), State Bank of India (SBI), Power Grid and Infosys whereas Tata Steel, Adani Ports, Hindustan Unilever, Bharti Airtel and ONGC were the major losers. On the NSE, Dr Reddy's Lab, Cipla and TCS were the highest gainers while Tata Steel, Zee Entertainment and Bajaj Finance lost the most. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

State-run lender Allahabad Bank on Tuesday said the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) has enhanced supervisory arrangements on its Hong Kong branch while "assessing implications of the capital positions" of the lender. "..we have to inform you that the Hong Kong Monitory Authority while assessing the implications of capital position of our bank as on march 31, 2018, has enhanced the supervisory arrangements on our Hong Kong branch," it said in a regulatory filing. In fact, the bank's capital to risk-weighted assets ratio (CRAR) had declined to 8.69 per cent at the end of March quarter from 11.27 per cent at the end of December quarter of 2017-18. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The Union Cabinet on Wednesday approved a Rs 24,000 crore foreign direct investment (FDI) as additional share capital into private sector HDFC Bank, Finance Minister Piyush Goyal announced. Indian telecom revenues (adjusted gross revenues, AGR) fell another 7% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) and are down 25% from the fourth quarter of 2015-16 levels, revealed a report by Jefferies. It said the telecom industry revenues are now back to 2012-13 levels. "The fall was precipitated by price cuts at end-January by Jio and incumbents. Industry ARPUs (average revenue per users) fell another 11% QoQ and now stand at Rs 70/sub/month. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The top gainers and top losers of the major indices are given in the table below:

The closing values of the major Asian indices are given in the table below:

The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

 

Major Indices (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

Fitch ups India growth forecast to 7.4% for FY'19-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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13 June 2018

 

Growth(The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

Fitch Ratings today raised India growth forecast for 2018-19 to 7.4 per cent from 7.3 per cent, but cited higher financing costs and rising oil prices as risks to growth. For 2019-20, it estimated the country to grow at 7.5 per cent.

We have revised up our forecast for 2018-19 growth to 7.4 per cent from 7.3 per cent in March. However, higher financing costs (stemming from monetary tightening and higher market premiums) and rising oil prices should limit the upside to growth, Fitch said in its Global Economic Outlook.

The economy grew at 6.7 per cent in 2017-18 and 7.7 per cent in January-March quarter. Fitch said the Indian rupee has been one of the worst performing currencies in Asia this year, although the depreciation was more muted than during the 2013 taper-tantrum episode.

India has better macroeconomic fundamentals than in 2013 and very low foreign ownership rates in the domestic government bond market, but the current account deficit has been widening as a result of rising oil prices, reviving domestic demand and poor manufacturing export performance, it said.

Last month, US-based Moody’s cut India’s growth forecast for 2018-19 to 7.3 per cent from 7.5 per cent citing rising oil prices. Fitch also said the near-term global growth prospects remain robust despite rising trade tensions and political risks.

Global trade tensions have risen significantly this year, but at this stage the scale of tariffs imposed remains too small to materially affect the global growth outlook. “A major escalation that entailed blanket across-the-board geographical tariffs on all trade flows between several major countries would be much more damaging,” says Brian Coulton, Fitch’s Chief Economist.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

CAD widens to 1.9% of GDP in Q4FY18-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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13 June 2018

 

CAD (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

The January-March quarter recorded a current account deficit of $13 billion or 1.9 per cent of GDP compared to 0.4 per cent in the same quarter of last year. 

The rise in current account deficit - which is the excess of country's imports of goods and services over its exports- can be attributed to a spike in the crude oil prices which forms a major portion of India's imports. 

Goldman Sachs had, in its report, flagged higher crude oil prices as a risk to the CAD. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

"Our commodities team expects oil prices to continue to rise over the course of this summer, before moderating slightly at the end of the year. We recently increased our 2018-19 current account deficit (CAD)forecast to 2.4 per cent of GDP (from 2.1 per cent of GDP earlier)," Goldman Sachs said in a research note. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

India, US agree to hold comprehensive talks to address trade issues-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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13 June 2018

US INDIA (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

India and the US have agreed to hold official-level comprehensive talks to address trade and economic issues, days after President Donald Trump accused New Delhi of charging 100% on some of the US’s goods.

The decision was taken during a series of meetings visiting commerce and industry minister Suresh Prabhu had with US commerce secretary Wilbur Ross and US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer.

“We will now work together to expand (bilateral) trade,” Prabhu told a group of Indian reporters on Wednesday in New Delhi, at the conclusion of his two-day trip to the US. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

India will send an official team to work out the details and initiate a comprehensive negotiation on all issues concerning trade and economic relationship between the two countries. “The team will come within the next few days,” Prabhu said. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Acknowledging that both sides have trade and tariff issues with each other, the minister said officials would hold talks on all of them.

President Trump, in a press conference in Canada’s Quebec City where he attended the G7 summit, took a swipe at India along with the world’s other top economies and accused New Delhi of charging 100% tariff on some of the US’s goods, as he threatened to cut trade ties with countries who are robbing America.

Indian Ambassador to the US Navtej Singh Sarna said New Delhi has written to the US on steel and aluminum tariffs. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

A full-fledged case has been made by India for waiver of steel and aluminum tariffs, he added. “It has been a very positive engagement.”

In addition to Ross and Lighthizer, Prabhu held talks with Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue. He also met two powerful Senators John Cornyn and Mark Warner - the two co-chairs of the Senate India caucus.

“The meetings were held in a friendly and cordial atmosphere, with appreciation for each other’s points of view. Discussions centered around bilateral trade and commercial relations between the two countries and focused on finding the way forward to address concerns of both sides,” the Indian Embassy said in a readout of the meetings. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

“In this context, it was agreed that Indian and US officials would meet at a senior level at an early date to discuss various issues of interest to both sides and carry forward the discussions in a positive, constructive and result oriented manner,” it said. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

During his two-day visit to Washington DC, Prabhu addressed business and industry leaders in meetings organised by US-India Business Council (USIBC) and US-India Strategic Partnership Forum (USISPF) and held meetings with other stakeholders. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

“It’s a great time to join hands with each other. And that’s the realisation within the (Trump) administration as well. Therefore, we have really decided to move on. As you know, we always hear the trade disputes between US and India, but when I had meeting with the USTR, with the Commerce Secretary, with Agriculture Secretary, with Senators, it is very clear that we must move on, keep the issues behind,” Prabhu told industry leaders at a reception hosted by USIBC in association with the FICCI and Manhattan Chamber of Commerce.

In his interaction with industry leaders at an event organised by the USISPF, Prabhu spoke about the improvements that have been made in the trade relationship, including trade deficit reduction.

“Every great partnership has areas of agreement and disagreement. I’m hopeful that the US investment corridor is only going to grow, and I’m confident that we will be able to bridge our gaps,” Prabhu noted.

The industry interaction included senior officials from leading US companies such as: Boston Scientific, FedEx, Walmart, Abbott, UTC, Honeywell, PhRMA, MoneyGram International, Lockheed Martin, Koch Industries, Amway, Uber, 21st Century Fox, and Medtronic. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Noting that India and the US have an important strategic relationship and shared goals, USIBC president Nisha Desai Biswal said the council is a constructive partner in achieving the full potential of the US-India commercial opportunity.

The USIBC roundtable organised in association with the CII comprised of US and Indian industry giants from the energy, aerospace, ICT, life sciences and defence sectors who reiterated India’s position as a critical market while also raising issues facing their companies such as data localization and price controls, as well as public procurement and operational hurdles.

In engaging with critical stakeholders, Prabhu highlighted the ongoing policy reforms being pursued by India to improve its business climate and remove bureaucratic hurdles. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Prabhu noted that India will soon release its new Industrial Policy, aimed at transforming India into a modern, flourishing, economic powerhouse.

During the interaction, he emphasized the importance of a dispute redressal mechanism, and resolving such issues together in a way that does not derail but rather strengthens bilateral ties.

Under Trump, trade dispute between India and the US has increased, with his administration asking New Delhi to lower its trade barriers and open up its market. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Trump has repeatedly raked up the issue of India imposing high import duty on the iconic Harley-Davidson motorcycles and threatened to increase the import tariff on “thousands and thousands” of Indian motorcycles to the US.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Stock Markets Rise Ahead Of Fed Rate Decision-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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13 June 2018

Japan financial markets (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

Global stocks rose Wednesday as investors awaited an expected interest rate increase from the Federal Reserve and looked for hints of further hikes this year.

KEEPING SCORE: France's CAC 40 was up 0.3 percent at 5,468 and Germany's DAX rose 0.2 percent to 12,868. Britain's FTSE 100 gained 0.5 percent to 7,741. U.S. shares were set to edge higher, with Dow futures up 0.1 percent and S&P 500 futures 0.2 percent higher. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

CENTRAL BANKS: The U.S. Federal Reserve was to resume a two-day meeting on interest rates later Wednesday. Investors expect the central bank to raise its benchmark rate by a quarter of a percentage point to a range of 1.75-2 percent. Attention will focus more on how many additional rate hikes Fed officials may do this year. On Thursday, the European Central Bank will meet and could outline an end to its stimulus program, while on Friday the Bank of Japan is due to give its latest policy update. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

TRUMP-KIM SUMMIT: U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un concluded their summit Tuesday by committing to working "toward complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula" and to "build a lasting and stable peace regime" there. Trump surprised both the Pentagon and the South Korean military by promising to end U.S. military exercises with South Korea. Details were left vague, but progress there has the chance of lowering geopolitical tensions in a region that includes three of the world's largest economies: Japan, China and South Korea.

ASIA'S DAY: Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 was up 0.4 percent at 22,966.38. South Korea's Kospi fell less than 0.1 percent to 2,468.83. Hong Kong's Hang Seng dropped 1.2 percent to 30,725.15, while the Shanghai Composite index dropped 1.0 percent to 3,049.80. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 dropped 0.5 percent to 6,023.50. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

ENERGY: Benchmark U.S. crude lost 34 cents to $66.02 a barrel. Brent crude, used to price international oils, fell 22 cents to $75.66 per barrel in London.

CURRENCY: The dollar rose to 110.54 yen from 110.30 late Tuesday. The euro fell slightly to $1.1763 from $1.1800.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Nifty, Sensex Trending Up - Tuesday closing report-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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12 June 2018

The major indices of the Indian stock markets gained on Tuesday on the backdrop of the Kim-Trump meeting in Singapore. On the NSE, there were 1,033 advances, 749 declines and 86 unchanged. The trends of the major indices in the course of Tuesday’s trading are given in the table below:

The Sensex touched a high of 35,743.08 points and a low of 35,479.07 points during the intra-day trade. The BSE market breadth was bullish with 1,440 advances and 1,224 declines. The top gainers on the Sensex were Dr Reddy's Lab, State Bank of India (SBI), IndusInd Bank, Hindustan Unilever and Hero MotoCorp and whereas Bharti Airtel, Tata Steel, Coal India, ONGC and Yes Bank were the major losers. On the NSE, Lupin, Dr Reddy's Lab and SBI were the highest gainers while Bharti Airtel, Hindalco Industries and Tata Steel lost the most. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

India's industrial output rose by 4.9% in April 2018 from a rise of 4.57% in March, official data showed on Tuesday. According to the data furnished by the Central Statistics Office (CSO), the corresponding growth during April 2017 stood at 3.2%."The General Index for the month of April 2018 stands at 123, which is 4.9% higher as compared to the level in the month of April 2017," CSO said in the "Quick estimates of index of Industrial Production. The cumulative growth for the period April-March 2017-18 over the corresponding period of the previous year stands at 4.3%." The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The combined push of food and fuel prices continued to drive up retail inflation in India in May towards the 5% mark, official data showed on Tuesday. As per numbers furnished by the Central Statistics Office, the consumer price index (CPI) inflation in May stood at 4.87%, recording more than double the growth over the 2.18% recorded in May last year, and up from the 4.58% in April 2018.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un agreed with US President Donald Trump to completely denuclearize the Korean Peninsula in exchange for security guarantees, according to an agreement signed between them here on Tuesday. In the pact that came after an over four-hour historic summit between Trump and Kim earlier in the day, the two countries also committed to work towards the development of fresh relations and promote "peace, prosperity and security" in the region.  The meeting was held at the Capella Hotel on Singapore's resort island of Sentosa. "President Trump committed to provide security guarantees to North Korea and Chairman Kim Jong-Un reaffirmed his firm and unwavering commitment to complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula," the agreement said. It also said that US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo will meet a senior North Korean official "at the earliest possible date" to continue with the negotiations. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The construction sector's share in India's overall gross value added (GVA) declined to 7.4% in the financial year 2017-18 (FY18) from 9.6% in FY12 owing to poor demand in the real estate sector and lower capital expenditure, said a report on Tuesday. The joint report by Assocham and ICRA, titled "EPC Contracting - Efficiency in Infrastructure Creation", said over the last five to seven years, growth in construction GVA has been lower than the growth in overall GVA. The construction sector with a GVA worth Rs 10.6 trillion (FY17) is of significant importance to Indian economy as it plays a major role in economic growth, provides major employment and occupies a pivotal position in country's development plans, as per the report. 

The top gainers and top losers of the major indices are given in the table below:

The closing values of the major Asian indices are given in the table below: The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Major Indices (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

April IIP at 4.9%, CPI inflation in May rises to 4.87%-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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12 June 2018

IIP (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

Factory output measured in terms of Index of Industrial Production (IIP) grew by 4.9 percent in April, while retail inflation inched up in May to 4.87 percent, government data showed on Tuesday.

Consumer price inflation, which the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) targets in setting interest rates, accelerated to a four-month high of 4.87 percent in May, government data showed on Tuesday, driven by higher fuel prices and a depreciating rupee. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

In terms of industries, sixteen out of the twenty three industry groups in the manufacturing sector have shown positive growth during the month of April 2018 as compared to the corresponding month of the previous year, government data showed. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Manufacturing sector, which constitutes over 77 percent of the index, grew at 5.2 percent in April as compared to 4.5 percent in the same month a year ago.

The output of mining sector acelerated to  5.1 percent during the month as compared to  2.3 percent in March 2017. Power generation decelerated to 2.1 percent as against  5.4 percent in March 2017.

In March Industrial output grew by 4.4 percent the slowest in five months, due to a fall in capital goods production and deceleration in mining activity, according to the official data. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) last week raised its benchmark interest rate for the first time since 2014, by 25 basis points to 6.25 percent, citing inflation concerns. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The RBI revised up its inflation forecast to 4.7 percent for the second half of the fiscal year ending in March 2019, from the 4.4 percent it projected earlier.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Cotton Association of India has increased 2017-18 cotton production estimate by 5 lakh bales-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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12 June 2018

 

Cotton(The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

The Cotton Association of India (CAI) today increased its May estimate of the cotton crop production for the 2017-18 season (October to September) by five lakh bales to 365 lakh bales. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The April estimate of cotton crop was at 360 lakh bales of 170 kgs each.

The upward revision in the May estimates is mainly due to higher yield estimated in Gujarat, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Tamil Nadu, CAI said in a release. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The total cotton supply up to May 31 this year has been projected at 378.50 lakh bales, which consists of the opening stock of 30 lakh bales at the beginning of the season on October 1, 2017, the arrival of 340 lakh bales up to May 31, and imports which is estimated at 8.50 lakh bales up to May end.

Further, CAI said, it has estimated cotton consumption for eight months, October 2017 to May 2018, at 216 lakh bales at an average of 27 lakh bales per month, while the export shipment till May 31 has been estimated at 62 lakh bales.

The total stocks at the end of May is estimated at 100.50 lakh bales, including 58 lakh bales with textile mills, while the remaining 42.50 lakh bales are expected to be held with the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) and others (traders, ginners, among others). The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

CAI has estimated total cotton supply till end of the season, that is up to September 30, at 410 lakh bales.

The domestic consumption for the season was estimated at 324 lakh bales, while the exports for the season was projected to be at 70 lakh bales.

The carry-over stock at the end of the 2017-18 crop year is estimated at 16 lakh bales. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Around 93 per cent of the total crop for the season has already arrived in the market up to May 31 this year, CAI added.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions