Thursday, 28 June 2018

Rupee touches all time low, crosses 69 per dollar mark-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


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28 June 2018
 
Dollar to Rupee (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)


The Indian rupee touched an all-time low and breached the 69 per dollar mark on Thursday due to high crude oil prices and weak macro-economic fundamentals.

At 2.44 p.m., rupee was at 68.92 against the previous closing level of 68.61 per greenback. The rupee's last record low was 68.87 per dollar, hit on November 24, 2016. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

According to analysts, demand for dollar is firm due to recent rise in crude oil prices. Also expectation of a wider current account deficit in the ongoing financial year (2018-19) further weakened the rupee, they said.

"The Indian rupee fell to a lifetime low today due to serval factors like rising dollar and crude aided by a wider current account deficit and continuous outflow from FIIs (Foreign Institutional Investors) pushed the currency lower," said Rahul Sharma, senior research analyst at Equity99, adding that FIIs have sold over Rs 40,000 crore in debt and equity so far this year. 

If 69.5 level is taken out, then there might be a sharp depreciation in the rupee in coming days and it may move towards 72 per dollar mark in short term, Sharma told .The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


Global Stocks Mixed As US, China Move To Sooth Tensions-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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28 June 2018
Hong kong financial markets (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)


Global stocks were mixed on Thursday as investors let the latest assurances from the U.S. and China on trade simmer, after a roller coaster of exchanges between the two powers brought widespread uncertainty.

KEEPING SCORE: European shares were lower in early trading. Germany's DAX dropped 0.6 percent to 12,274.60 and France's CAC 40 shed 0.3 percent to 5,309.06. Britain's FTSE 100 lost 0.2 percent to 7,608.10. Wall Street was poised to open higher. Dow futures added 0.1 percent to 24,160.00. The broader S&P 500 futures were up 0.2 percent to 2,710.20. The S&P 500 index had dropped 0.9 percent to 2,699.63 on Wednesday, its lowest closing level in nearly a month.

ASIA'S DAY: Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 index remained almost flat at 22,270.39 and South Korea's Kospi lost 1.2 percent to 2,314.24. Hong Kong's Hang Seng added 0.5 percent to 28,497.32 while the Shanghai Composite in mainland China extended its losses by 0.9 percent to 2,786.90. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 added 0.3 percent to 6,215.40. Taiwan's benchmark fell and Southeast Asian indexes were mixed. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

CHINA DEFENDS TRADE: China's government defended its trade record on Thursday to defuse U.S. and European pressure over market access and technology policy. A Cabinet report said that China has fulfilled its responsibility as a "major country" and contributed to "global peace and development." The report repeated promises to cut some tariffs and ease controls on foreign investment. But it didn't address complaints that Beijing is hampering access to promising industries and that plans for the state-led development of electric cars and other products violates China's free trade commitments.

MIXED U.S. MESSAGES: U.S. stocks inched higher on Wednesday after President Donald Trump dropped plans to impose strict limits on Chinese investment in U.S. technology companies. He urged Congress to strengthen existing laws that apply to all foreign countries instead. But the gains evaporated after Larry Kudlow, Trump's top economic adviser, said in an interview with Fox Business that it should not necessarily be viewed as a softer stance. The U.S. is set to impose a 25 percent tariff on billions of dollars of Chinese products starting July 6. In response, China will raise import duties on $34 billion worth of American goods. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

ANALYST'S TAKE: "Trump's slightly softer tone seems to have been undermined by a reiteration of the previous harsh tone on trade and investment by his adviser. Dollar strength, a generalized concern about global growth, higher oil prices, none of this is helping," said Robert Carnell, head of research and chief economist at ING Bank. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

ENERGY: Oil futures eased after rallying on a report that showed U.S oil inventories dropping more sharply last week. Benchmark U.S. crude fell 14 cents to $72.62 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract gained $2.23 to settle at $72.76 per barrel on Wednesday. Brent crude, used to price international oils, fell 4 cents to $77.42 in London.

CURRENCIES: The dollar rose to 110.31 yen from 110.20 Japanese yen in late trading Wednesday. The euro ticked up to $1.1559 from $1.1557.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Wednesday, 27 June 2018

Nifty, Sensex Headed Lower? – Wednesday closing report-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


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27 June 2018

I had mentioned in Tuesday’s closing report that Nifty, Sensex were low on volatility. Would it last? The major indices of the Indian stock markets suffered a correction on Wednesday and closed with losses over Tuesday’s close. On the NSE, there were 273 advances, 1,490 declines and 300 unchanged. The trends of the major indices in the course of Wednesday’s trading are given in the table below:

Negative global cues, including rise in crude oil prices and escalating trade war concerns, pulled the key Indian equity indices deep into the red on Wednesday. Major global indices traded in the negative territory during the day. In the domestic market, analysts said, oil and gas, capital goods, auto and banking stocks witnessed selling pressure.

Airline major Jet Airways on Wednesday announced discounts up to 25% on select domestic routes and up to 30% on its international flights. The offer is available on tickets booked during June 26-30 and would be applicable for travel from July 11, the airline said in a statement. "Jet Airways is offering guests discounts up to 30 per cent on their international travel using the airline's vast network, with immediate effect," it said. It added: "Guests travelling to Abu Dhabi, Bahrain, Bangkok, Dammam, Dhaka, Doha, Dubai, Hong Kong, Jeddah, Kathmandu, Kuwait, London, Manchester, Muscat, Riyadh, Sharjah and Singapore can enjoy substantial discounts on their premiere and Economy class bookings." In the case of travel to Manchester, however, the offer would be valid from November 5, 2018, the statement said. Further, "on select domestic routes, the airline will also offer 'Economy' guests discount of up to 25% applicable on tickets booked within the sale period until June 30, 2018," it said. The five-day fare sale would be applicable for guests booking "both one-way and/or return journeys". Jet Airways share closed at Rs351.90, down 6.25% on the NSE.

State-run lender Allahabad Bank is looking at a recovery of around Rs5,500 crore in the current fiscal, an official said on Wednesday. The bank has submitted a roadmap to the Centre and if everything goes "well and smooth" as per its projections, it was likely to come out of prompt corrective action (PCA), imposed by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), by March 2020, the official said. "We are expecting Rs3,000 crore recovery through resolution in NCLT (National Company Law Tribunal) in the entire financial year, another Rs2,000 crore through normal recovery process and Rs400-500 crore through asset sales," Allahabad Bank Executive Director N.K. Sahoo said. "We have recently recovered around Rs1,300 crore from the resolution of Bhushan Steel and Electrosteel Steels," he added. The bank has an outstanding exposure of Rs4,000 crore in several accounts referred to NCLT including Uttam Galva, Alok Industries, Essar Steel, he said, adding that it was hopeful of recovering from these accounts in the current fiscal. The bank may have to take a hair-cut upto 50%-60% in these accounts, he added. Allahabad Bank shares closed at Rs41.25, down 0.72% on the NSE.

HCL Technologies on Wednesday announced the acquisition of Germany-based IT (information technology) and engineering services provider H&D International Group for an undisclosed sum. H&D International Group is one of the largest IT service providers in the German automotive industry and operates in over 20 locations globally. The acquisition will help HCL gain significant front office and delivery capabilities in Germany and further enhance the company's domain expertise in the global automotive sector. "Germany is a critical market for HCL as we continue to expand our business in Europe. We feel the German market is at an inflection point and it is the right time for HCL to expand and make significant investments here," Ashish Gupta, Corporate Vice President at HCL Technologies, said in a statement. Wolfsburg-based H&D specialises in IT infrastructure, application services particularly in R&D IT, shop-floor IT and industry 4.0 solutions and has extensive expertise in SAP, computer-aided technologies (CAx), engineering services and customer-specific product development. “By combining H'D's delivery capabilities with those of HCL, we have an unprecedented opportunity to add tremendous value to the services we provide to support our clients' IT transformation ambitions," said Bernhard Honigsberg, CEO of the H&D International Group. H&D's existing delivery centre in Gifhorn will become part of HCL's global delivery footprint and will focus on IT and engineering services both in Germany and globally. HCL Technologies shares closed at Rs922.00, up 1.27% on the NSE.

Cigarette-to-FMCG (fast moving consumer goods) major ITC Ltd said it would seek shareholders' approval to re-appoint its non-executive chairman YC Deveshwar for another two years from 2020 to 2022, given the increasing size and complexity of the diversified conglomerate. "...given the increasing size and complexity of the organisation, the Committee and the Board are of the view that it would be in the best interest of the Company for Y.C. Deveshwar to continue in his capacity as Chairman for some more time," said notice for its 107th Annual General Meeting to be held here next month. ITC shares closed at Rs263.00, down 0.68% on the NSE.

The top gainers and top losers of the major indices are given in the table below:


The closing values of the major Asian indices are given in the table below:
 
Major Indices (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

Trade events in Africa, S. America to explore new export domains: Commerce Ministry-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


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27 June 2018
 
Commerce Ministry (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)


The Commerce Ministry has decided to formulate a comprehensive action plan to boost India’s trade with Africa which is “relatively” small at present, Union Minister Suresh Prabhu said.
A series of engagements have been lined up in different parts of Africa to discuss ways to promote trade and investments between the two regions, he said.
“As part of our strategy to explore new markets, we are constantly engaging with Africa where there is huge scope for exports...We have decided to prepare an action plan to boost exports and imports from Africa,” the minister told PTI.
To strengthen the dialogue on trade and investments, “we have divided them in five parts - east, west, north, south and central”, Prabhu said.
Deliberations have been completed in the eastern part and soon similar engagements would be organised in places including Algeria and Nigeria, he added.
“The idea is to discover new markets. We are meeting them regularly... Trade is relatively very small with Africa,” Prabhu said.
With India’s exports growing at a relatively slower rate, Africa holds huge potential to boost exports.
According to experts, India needs to take more steps to increase cooperation with the continent in various areas including services.
“India has lot of prospects in Africa. We need to increase our engagement with the continent. We have not yet exploited that fully as compared to China, which has huge presence,” said Biswajit Dhar, a professor of economics at Jawaharlal Nehru University.
Prabhu has earlier pitched for a free trade agreement with Africa to boost economic ties between the two regions.
The commerce between India and the African countries is about USD 52 billion currently.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Banks' NPAs status to worsen to over 12% by fiscal-end:RBI-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


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27 June 2018
 
RBI (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)


The gross non-performing assets (GNPAs), or bad loans, ratio in the Indian banking system is likely to rise from 11.6 per cent in March 2018 to 12.2 per cent by the end of March next year, the Reserve Bank of India said on Tuesday.

Referring to the 11 state-owned banks under prompt corrective action framework (PCA) on account of NPAs, the RBI, in its Financial Stability Report (FSR), also said these may see a worsening of their GNPA ratio from 21 per cent in March 2018 to 22.3 per cent by the end of the ongoing 2018-19 fiscal.

"Macro-stress tests indicate that under the baseline scenario of current macroeconomic outlook, SCBs' (scheduled commercial banks) GNPA ratio may rise from 11.6 per cent in March 2018 to 12.2 per cent by March 2019," it said.

Of the 11 banks, six are likely to experience capital shortfall relative to the required minimum risk-weighted assets ratio (CRAR) of 9 per cent, the central bank said. 

The 11 banks under PCA framework on account of their high bad loans are IDBI Bank, UCO Bank, Central Bank of India, Bank of India, Indian Overseas Bank, Dena Bank, Oriental Bank of Commerce, Bank of Maharashtra, United Bank of India, Corporation Bank and Allahabad Bank.

Though the overall system level CRAR may come down from 13.5 per cent to 12.8 per cent during the period in review, the FSR said profitability of all commercial banks had declined partly reflecting increased provisioning on account of bad loans.

"The stress in the banking sector continues as GNPA ratio rises further," the report said

"Spillover risk from advanced financial markets to emerging markets has increased," it added. 

On the domestic situation, the RBI said economic growth is firming up. 

"However, conditions that buttressed fiscal consolidation, moderation in inflation and a benign current account deficit over the last few years, are changing, thereby warranting caution," the report said. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Ahead of 2+2, Trump says India charges 100 pc tariff-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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27 June 2018




India, US (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)


Ahead of next weeks maiden 2+2 dialogue with India, US President Donald Trump today accused New Delhi of charging as high as 100 per cent tariff on import of American products. We have countries where, as an example, India, they charge up as much as 100 per cent tariff. We want the tariffs removed, Trump said.
He was responding to a question in his recent decisions to impose tariffs on import of foreign products. Trump has defended it by arguing that this is in retaliation to the imbalance of trade that the US has with major trading partners including China, the European Union and India.

India and the US will hold their first 2+2 dialogue next week. External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj and Defence Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will be in the US for talks with their American counterparts Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Defence Secretary James Mattis.

What I would like to do and what I offered at the G7, you remember, I said let's drop all tariffs and all barriers, he said.

Is everybody OK with that? And nobody said yes. I said wait a minute folks, you're complaining. No tariffs and no barriers, you're on your own, let's do it. And it was like they couldn't leave the room fast enough, he said recollecting his conversation with G-7 leaders in Canada recently. Other countries are negotiating (with US). Without tariffs, you could never do that. If they don't want to negotiate, then we'll do the tariffs, Trump told reporters at the White House. Just remember, we're the bank. We're the bank that everybody wants to steal from and plunder and can't be that way anymore. We lost USD 500 billion last year with China. We lost USD 151 billion with the European Union, which puts up great barriers so that our farmers can't trade, he said. We can't send farm products in for the most part. It's very hard to send cars in, he said. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Global Markets Subdued As Trade Concerns Linger-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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27 June 2018


South korea financial markets (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)


Global markets were subdued on Wednesday as jitters over trade conflicts between the world's largest economies lingered. Oil prices extended their gains as the U.S. pushed other countries to cut oil imports from Iran.

KEEPING SCORE: Britain's FTSE 100 was up 0.3 percent at 7,559 while Germany's DAX edged up 0.1 percent to 12,250. France's CAC 40 was 0.2 percent higher at 5,291. Futures augured losses on Wall Street. S&P futures dropped 0.4 percent and Dow futures declined 0.5 percent.

ASIA'S DAY: Chinese stocks were the biggest losers, with the Shanghai Composite Index sinking 1.1 percent to 2,813.18. The index is the worst performer among major markets this year, losing 14 percent since the start of this year. Hong Kong's Hang Seng tumbled 1.8 percent to 28,356.26. Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 0.3 percent to 22,271.77 and South Korea's Kospi dropped 0.4 percent to 2,342.03. Australia's S&P-ASX 200 edged down less than 0.1 percent to 6,195.90. Stocks in Taiwan, Singapore and other Southeast Asian markets were mostly lower.

CHINESE BEARS: China's market benchmark has tumbled into bear territory as trade tensions with Washington spook investors. The Shanghai Composite Index's closing Tuesday was just over 20 percent below its Jan. 24 peak. The South China Morning Post newspaper in Hong Kong noted that has wiped out $1.6 trillion in stock value — bigger than Canada's annual economic output. The biggest decliners have included telecoms and tech companies that might be hurt by U.S. President Donald Trump's proposed restrictions on access to U.S. markets and technology. Analysts said a combination of factors such as jitters over trade conflicts, Beijing's move to tighten liquidity and signs of growth momentum losing steam also contributed to the sell-off.

ANALYST'S TAKE: "To a large extent, the Chinese market is one driven by speculation," said Jingyi Pan, a market strategist at IG in Singapore. "With sentiment rolling over itself of late, particularly over the escalating trade tensions that seem to have no end, it should be of little surprise to find the market crumbling."

CHINA-US TRADE: China announced a tariff cut for imported soybeans and some other grains from Asian countries in a possible measure to replace U.S. supplies in the event Beijing's trade dispute with Washington escalates. Beijing has announced plans to hike tariffs on U.S. soybeans, for which China is the biggest export market, in response to Trump's threat of import duty increases on Chinese goods. The tariff on soybeans will be cut by half to 1.5 percent effective July 1 and those on some other crops such as rapeseed will fall from as much as 9 percent to as low as zero.

THE QUOTE: Wendy Liu, Nomura's head of China equity research, said some agreement on U.S.-China trade before the U.S. mid-term election was anticipated and the Chinese stock market was forecast to calm down during the summer earnings season. But for the moment, "with lack of visibility on the U.S.-China trade conflict and some renewed concerns over growth outlook, few are willing to step in and step up right away."

OIL: Benchmark U.S. crude gained 52 cents to $71.05 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude, used to price international oils, added 62 cents to $76.93 per barrel in London. Trump, who withdrew the U.S. from an Iran nuclear deal in May, is reportedly pushing foreign nations to cut their oil imports from the country to zero by November, when sanctions on Iran's energy sector will kick in again.

Currencies: The dollar fell to 109.93 yen from 110.03 yen. The euro weakened to $1.1623 from $1.1646.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Tuesday, 26 June 2018

Nifty, Sensex Low on Volatility. Will it Last? – Tuesday closing report-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


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26 June 2018

I had mentioned in Monday’s closing report that Nifty, Sensex were trendless. The key Indian equity indices traded in the green on Tuesday as they pared the losses made in the early morning trade. The indices had opened on a flat-to-negative note due to decline in the global markets and the ongoing trade war concerns. FMCG (fast moving consumer goods) and IT (information technology) stocks witnessed buying activity. At the close of trading, the major indices failed to sustain their gains and closed on a flat-to-positive note. The indices were tracking mixed global markets. On the NSE, there were 517 advances, 1,196 and 349 unchanged. The trends of the major indices in the course of Tuesday’s trading are given in the table below:

Even as most global rating agencies have kept India's growth forecast between 7.3% and 7.4%, NITI Aayog Vice Chairman Rajiv Kumar has said the economy would grow at least 7.5% in the current fiscal and may even go as high as 7.8%. This is good news for the long term bullish trend in the Indian stock markets.

Fitch Ratings on Tuesday affirmed India-based Bharti Airtel's Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) and senior unsecured rating at 'BBB-' with the outlook on the IDR as stable. "The stable outlook reflects our belief that revenue from Bharti's Indian mobile segment may recover on higher data volume and its African and enterprise business segments will continue to expand. We believe India's tariff levels are unsustainable in the medium- to long-term in light of the low return on investment for telcos. In addition, Bharti is committed to an investment-grade rating and may explore stake sales in non-core assets to support its balance sheet," Fitch said. Bharti Airtel shares closed at Rs379.10, up 1.32% on the NSE.

Fugitive tycoon Vijay Mallya has sought the Karnataka High Court's permission to let him and his holding firm UBHL sell their assets under judicial supervision and repay creditors, including state-run banks. "UBHL (United Breweries Holding Ltd) and myself have filed an application before the Karnataka High Court on June 22, setting out available assets of about Rs13,900 crore," said Mallya in a letter released here on Tuesday. State Bank of India, which has been a major lender to Kingfisher Airlines closed at Rs267.05, down 0.52% on the NSE.

Battery maker Exide Industries said it has entered into an agreement with Tudor India, part of US-based Exide Technologies, for acquiring its Gujarat facility. "The company has entered into an 'Asset Purchase Agreement' with Tudor India towards acquisition of its immovable assets and movable assets of its factory situated at Sabarkantha district in Gujarat," it said in a regulatory filing. Tudor India is a manufacturer and provider of lead acid batteries for automotive, two-wheeler and home-UPS applications. The asset purchase transaction is expected to complete within a month, it said without disclosing the financial details of the deal. In fact, Exide Industries had entered into a "settlement agreement" with Exide Technologies in May last year in relation to the usage of 'Exide' mark in India. The battery major was in discussion with the US firm for an out of the court settlement to "amicably resolve the long pending dispute" over ownership of the trademark.  Exide Industries shares closed at Rs251.40, up 0.24% on the NSE.

US stocks traded on a downbeat note on Monday as investors were concerned about intensifying trade tensions between the US and its major trade partners. The US dollar index decreased against most other major currencies as investors were concerned about intensifying trade tensions.

The top gainers and top losers of the major indices are given in the table below:


The closing values of the major Asian indices are given in the table below:The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Major Indices (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)