India, 6th largest economy, has long way to go as per capita income still low: Rajiv Kumar -The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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12 July 2018

 

Niti Aayog vice chairman Rajiv Kumar (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

Emergence of India as the sixth largest economy was very much expected but still there is a long way to go as the per capita income of the country is still low, Niti Aayog vice chairman Rajiv Kumar said today. 

The country, Kumar said, will have to develop capacity for intervening in the global stage in a meaningful manner as it is going to soon surpass the UK to become the fifth largest economy in the world. 

"Very much expected. And this is result of our higher rate of growth. Soon we will overtake UK, that will be even better news. 

"We will soon become the fifth largest economy in 2018 after the US, China, Japan and Germany. But our per capita income is still 20 times lower than France, so we cannot stop here," Kumar told . The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

 

He further said that since now India is the sixth largest economy, so more and more will be expected from India on the global stage. 

"So we will have make that necessary preparation and create those capacity where we can intervene in global stage in a meaningful way with a clear pursuit of our national interest. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

 

"There, we will have to create our own model of thinking, our own model of strategic interventions,"the Niti Aayog vice chairman noted. 

According to an analysis of data compiled by the World Bank, India emerged as the world's sixth largest economy in 2017 with a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of USD 2.59 trillion, surpassing France and likely to go past the UK. 

The GDP of France stood at USD 2.58 trillion in 2017. The UK, which is facing Brexit blues, had a GDP of USD 2.62 trillion -- about USD 25 billion more than that of India. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Indian economy grew at a seven-quarter high of 7.7 per cent in the three months ended March 2018, helped by higher government spending and investment. 

According to the IMF' World Economic Outlook released in April this year, the size of the Indian economy was pegged at USD 2.61 trillion, ahead of France with a GDP of USD 2.58 trillion. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Industrial output grows 3.2 per cent in May, retail inflation moves up to 5 per cent in June-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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12 July 2018

India's industrial output (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

India's industrial output grew 3.2 percent in May from a year earlier, driven by a pick up in capital goods manufacturing, government data showed on Thursday. Economists surveyed by Reuters had forecast 5.2 percent growth in output compared with a 4.9 percent year-over-year increase in April.

Manufacturing, which contributes 78 percent of industrial output, grew 2.8 percent in May, slower than a 5.2 percent rise in April, as domestic demand slowed. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Retail inflation has moved up to 5 per cent in June from 4.87 per cent in May.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Fiscal pressures emerging for several states: RBI -The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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12 July 2018 

RBI (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

Fiscal pressures are emerging for several states on the expenditure side, under committed heads, said a Reserve Bank of India (RBI) report, released here on Thursday. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Entitled "State Finances: A Study of Budgets of 2017-18 and 2018-19", the report is an annual publication that provides information, analysis and an assessment of the finances of state governments.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

"Visible fiscal pressures are emerging for several states on the expenditure side, particularly under the committed heads and other state-specific schemes like agricultural debt waivers," the RBI said.

According to the report, in 2018-19, states' revenue capacity is likely to be augmented with the stabilization of Goods and Services Tax (GST) and the consequent expansion of tax base and efficacy.

"With the implementation of the E-way bill for inter-state movement of goods from April 2018, states could also strive for generating more revenues by locking in efficiency in tax administration," the report said.

If the revenue receipts of the states end up again in shortfall relative to budgeted levels, then better fiscal marksmanship and efficiency of expenditure is needed for providing robustness to state finances, it added.

While states' consolidated gross fiscal deficit (GFD) overshot the budget estimates in 2017-18 due to shortfalls in own tax revenues and higher revenue expenditure, for 2018-19, states have budgeted for a correction, mainly emanating from a modest revenue surplus.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Global Stocks Rebound But Trade War Fears Remain-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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12 July 2018

Japan financial markets (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

Global stock markets recovered some of the previous day's losses Thursday as investors weighed up the latest developments on a possible global trade war.

KEEPING SCORE: In Europe, London's FTSE 100 rose 0.9 percent to 7,661 while Germany's DAX added 0.6 percent to 12,485. France's CAC 40 gained 0.8 percent to 5,389. On Wednesday, the CAC 40 and DAX both lost 1.5 percent while the FTSE 100 was off 1.3 percent. On Wall Street, futures for the Dow Jones industrial average and Standard & Poor's 500 index were up 0.4 percent.

TRADE FOCUS: China's government said it will take "firm and forceful measures" if the Trump administration goes ahead with its threat of tariff hikes on an additional $200 billion of Chinese goods. President Donald Trump has threatened to raise duties on almost everything Americans buy from China. Beijing is running out of American goods for retaliatory tariffs due to its lopsided trade balance, which means it might impose other measures.

ANALYST TAKE: "While markets have typically reacted negatively to any escalation on trade, the overall impact has been relatively modest under the circumstances which suggests investors are far from panic mode right now," said Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at OANDA. "Many agree that tariffs will ultimately be bad for the global economy and therefore markets but there still seems to be some hope that common sense will prevail and a full blown trade war will be averted." The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

ASIA'S DAY: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.2 percent to 2,837.66 and Tokyo's Nikkei 225 gained 1.2 percent to 22,187.96. India's Sensex climbed 1 percent to 36,615.08 and Sydney's S&P-ASX 200 advanced 0.9 percent to 6,268.30. Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 0.7 percent to 28,517.61 and Seoul's Kospi added 0.2 percent to 2,285.06. Benchmarks in Taiwan and Southeast Asia also advanced, while New Zealand declined.

ENERGY: Benchmark U.S. crude gained 54 cents to $70.92 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange while Brent crude, used to price international oils, gained 85 cents to $74.25 per barrel in London.

CURRENCY: The euro was up 0.1 percent at $1.1654 while the dollar rose 0.5 percent at 112.46 yen.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Nifty, Sensex Continue To Head Higher – Tuesday closing report-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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10 July 2018

I had mentioned in Monday’s closing report that Nifty, Sensex were on an uptrend. The major indices of the Indian stock markets rallied again on Tuesday and closed with gains over Monday’s close. On the NSE, there were 1,193 advances, 525 declines and 345 unchanged. The trends of the major indices in the course of Tuesday’s trading are given in the table below:

Taking stock of coal supply situation in the country, Union Coal Minister Piyush Goyal asked Coal India to focus on meeting coal demand, particularly that of power sector. During a review meeting held here with officials, he urged "better coordination between Coal India and Railways to ramp up supplies", sources said. Coal India was also asked to work out on planning for next fiscal's production and supply in an objective to better coordination with Railways, the sources added. In fact, Coal India had recently said an action plan was drawn to prioritise coal supplies to power stations lest they turn critical due to non-availability of coal. The miner despatched 122.84 million tonnes of coal to the power sector during the first quarter (April-June 2018) as compared to despatch of 106.46 million tonnes same period last year. Coal India shares closed at Rs278.95, up 2.88% on the NSE.

In corporate news, Steel Strips Wheels bagged the largest exports order for Truck & Trailer Aftermarket from USA for supply of 110,000 truck steel Wheels in five months. The wheels would be supplied from its Chennai plant from next month onwards. Steel Strips Wheels shares closed at Rs1,308.00, up 4.09% on the NSE.

Astral Poly Technik has approved acquisition of 51% equity share of Rex Polyextrusion Pvt. Ltd. for Rs75.22 crore. Balance 49% of Rex Polyextrusion is to merge with Astral in exchange of equity shares.  Astral to issue 15,453 shares for every 10 shares of Rex. The company’s shares closed at Rs1,035.00, up 3.30% on the NSE.

PNC Infratech has been declared as L-1 bidder for two packages (Package 5 & 6) of 6-laning of Purvanchal Expressway Project (Lucknow - Ghazipur section) in Uttar Pradesh on EPC basis for an aggregate quoted value of Rs2,520 crore. The company’s shares closed at Rs155.70, up 2.30% on the NSE.

Gayatri Projects has been declared as L-1 bidder for Development of Purvanchal Expressway Project (Package-I) value at Rs1,483.00 crore and Development of Purvanchal Expressway Project (Package-II) value at Rs1,276.00 crore. The company’s shares closed at Rs180.65, up 4.72% on the NSE.

Nila Infrastructures has received a work order for the construction of a building from Adani Group's Shantigram Estate Management Pvt. Ltd., worth Rs53.84 crore. The work has to be completed within 18 months. The company’s shares closed at Rs13.00, up 2.36% on the NSE.

PVR enters into a non-binding MoU (Memorandum of Understanding) with Al-Futtaim Group, Dubai to jointly develop cinema business in the Middle East and North Africa region subject to feasibility study, entering into a JV (joint venture) agreement. The company’s shares closed at Rs1,412.55, up 2.49% on the NSE.

IndusInd Bank Q1 FY19 results have been declared. Net Interest Income was at Rs2,122.43 crore (Rs1,774.06 crore in the same quarter of the previous year – 19.6% growth year-on-year), net profit was at Rs1,035.72 crore (Rs836.55 crore in the same quarter of the previous year – 23.8% growth year-on-year), provisions at Rs350.01 crore (Rs309.97 crore in the same quarter of the previous year), gross NPA (non-performing assets) were at 1.15% (1.09% in the same quarter of the previous year) of total assets, and net NPA (non-performing assets) were at 0.51% (0.44% in the same quarter of the previous year) of total assets. The bank’s shares closed at Rs1,936.00, down 1.14% on the NSE.

Prakash Industries - Q1 FY19 standalone results are as follows: Net revenue was at Rs985.42 crore (Rs650.47 crore in the same quarter of the previous year - 51.5% growth year-on-year), profit after tax was at Rs168.68 crore (Rs59.41 crore in the same quarter of the previous year – 183.9% growth year-on-year), EPS (earnings per share) were at Rs9.43 (Rs3.96 in the same quarter of the previous year). Prakash Industries shares closed at Rs159.90, up 0.41% on the NSE.

TCS Q1 FY19 Consolidated results are as follows: Income from operations were at Rs34,261 crore (Rs29,584 crore in the same quarter of the previous year -  15.8% growth year-on-year), Net profit  was at Rs7,340 crore (Rs5,945 crore in the same quarter of the previous year - 23.5% growth year-on-year), EPS (Earnings per share) were at Rs19.17 (Rs15.20 in the same quarter of the previous year). Interim Dividend declared was at Rs4.00 per share. TCS shares closed at Rs1,876.05, down 0.37% on the NSE.

The US dollar index increased against most other major currencies as investors continued to digest the country's nonfarm payrolls report for June. In late New York trading on Monday, the euro rose to $1.1748 from $1.1746 in the previous session, and the British pound was down to $1.3256 from $1.3283 in the previous session. The Australian dollar increased to $0.7466 from $0.7430, Xinhua reported. With no major economic data due on Monday, investors were still sifting through the June jobs report. US total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 213,000 in June, beating market consensus, the Labour Department said on Friday.  Job growth occurred in professional and business services, manufacturing, and health care, while retail trade lost jobs. Meanwhile, as more Americans entered the labour force but not all found jobs, US unemployment rate in June rose slightly to 4% from 3.8% in May, the lowest level since April 2000. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against six major peers, was up 0.13% at 94.087 in late trading.

US stocks traded on an upbeat note as financial shares rallied, bolstering the market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average on Monday jumped 279.38 points, or 1.14%, to 24,735.86. The S&P 500 was up 20.44 points, or 0.74%, to 2,780.26. The Nasdaq Composite Index climbed 40.59 points, or 0.53%, to 7,728.98. Many major bank stocks gained. Shares of Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Goldman Sachs all rose more than 2%. Trading mood was lifted by a slew of encouraging data released last week. This market optimism overshadowed the concerns over trade tensions between Washington and its key trading partners, experts noted.

The top gainers and top losers of the major indices are given in the table below:

The closing values of the major Asian indices are given in the table below:The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

 

Major Indices (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

India June inflation likely reached highest level in nearly 2 years-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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10 July 2018 

Retail (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

Retail inflation likely rose to a near two-year high in June, driven by surging oil and food prices, a Reuters poll showed, a development that would strengthen calls for more monetary policy tightening by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).

According to a July 4-9 Reuters poll of 37 economists, retail prices rose at an annual 5.30 per cent last month. That would be the fastest since July 2016, well above May's 4.87 per cent and keep inflation above the central bank's 4 per cent target for an eighth straight month.

Forecasts for the data, scheduled to be released on July 12 at 5.30 pm, ranged from 4.60 per cent to 6 per cent.

A high reading for June should cement expectations for the central bank to raise rates as early as August after its 25 basis points hike last month to try and control potential risks caused by higher inflation.

"Weekly data suggest that both food and fuel inflation picked up further in June," Shilan Shah, senior India economist at Capital Economics, said in a note to clients. "We are penciling in a further slight rise in headline CPI inflation last month."

Further ahead, Shah said he expects core inflation to "stay elevated".

Global oil prices, which have risen more than 20 per cent this year and nearly 13 per cent in June, was a major factor behind higher inflation in recent few months as it is India's costliest import.

A recent increase in government-mandated prices is currently predicted to add Rs 15,000 crore to the government's costs, raising concerns over inflation remaining elevated over the coming months.

Ahead of the 2019 general election, "there could be an increase in populist spending on schemes which could support farmers' incomes, albeit only temporarily," Tanvee Gupta Jain, an economist at UBS AG, said in a note.

Adding to worries, the wholesale price index was forecast to hit a 15-month high of 4.93 per cent in June, from 4.43 per cent in May.

That supports predictions for further policy tightening by the central bank as early as next month.

Jain predicts that the monetary policy committee (MPC) will hike policy rates by another 25 basis points in August "before going for a prolonged pause".

"However, the risk of a 100 basis points tightening cycle (including the 25 basis points hike already announced) is now very much alive to ensure financial stability," she said.

The Reuters poll forecast that industrial output increased in May at a three-month high of 5.2 per cent from a year earlier, up from April's 4.9 per cent, helped by a 3.6 per cent increase in annual infrastructure output.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Global device shipments facing flat growth in 2018: Gartner -The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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10 July 2018

 

Gartner (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

After suffering a decline of three percent in 2017, global shipments of devices including PCs, tablets and mobile phones are forecast to record a mere 0.9 per cent growth to reach 2.28 billion units in 2018, market research firm Gartner said on Tuesday.

Refining its earlier April forecast of growth for worldwide shipments of devices at over 1.3 percent in 2018, Gartner predicted that the PC and tablet market is estimated to decline 1.2 per cent in 2018 while the mobile phone market is on pace to record an increase of 1.4 per cent.

In April, Gartner said the traditional PC market will decline 3.9 per cent in units in 2018 and is expected to decline a further 3.6 per cent during 2019.

"The PC market is still hindered by the undersupply of the DRAM market due to the lack of new wafer capacity coming online. As a result, PC vendors will continue to increase their prices throughout 2018," said Ranjit Atwal, Research Director at Gartner.

The next major shift in the PC market will be marked by the end of support for Windows 7 in January 2020.

"It is becoming paramount for businesses to migrate to Windows 10 as soon as possible, and certainly by the end of 2019," Atwal added.

North America kicked off the first Windows 10 migration phase in 2015 and will complete around 2019.

Western Europe is increasing its adoption in 2018.

However, in China, Japan and other emerging regions, migration plans are shifting from 2018 to 2019 as they continue to prepare for inherent complications in changing process and procedures for Windows as a service, Gartner noted.

With nearly 1.9 billion units to be shipped in 2018, mobile phones are the main influencer of the global device market growth.

In China, mobile phone sales declined 8.7 per cent in 2017 to 428 million units, but are estimated to grow 3.3 per cent in 2018, representing 23 per cent of total mobile phone sales this year.

The traditional PC market in China is on pace to decline 1.7 per cent to 38.5 million shipments in 2018.

"The downward trend that China is experiencing is undoubtedly affecting the worldwide device market," said Atwal.

"The continued roll-out of a Chinese version of Windows 10 in the second half of 2018 as well as Apple iPhone's replacement cycle expected through 2019 will generate demand," he added.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

South Korea, India Plan To Double Bilateral Trade By 2030-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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10 July 2018

India south Korea (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

India and South Korea are expanding their business ties with an aim to increase bilateral trade to US $50 billion by 2030.

Visiting South Korean President Moon Jae-in and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in New Delhi on Tuesday asked their business communities to enhance investment and promote joint ventures.

The bilateral trade between the two Asian countries was $20 billion in 2017.

Moon is on a four day state-visit to India and will travel to Singapore on Wednesday.

The two leaders on Monday traveled in a metro train to Noida, in the outskirts of the India's capital, and inaugurated a new production facility of Samsung Electronics company.

The phone manufacturing unit is estimated to create more than 2000 jobs in India.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions