Thursday, 17 January 2019

China Says Economy Czar To Visit Washington For Trade Talks-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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17 January 2019
 China(The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


The top U.S. and Chinese trade envoys will hold talks in Washington this month in a possible sign of progress toward ending a costly tariff battle over Beijing's technology ambitions.
The Ministry of Commerce announcement of the Jan. 30-31 event was the first sign of a next step by the two sides following negotiations in Beijing earlier this month between lower-level officials.
China's economy czar, Vice Premier Liu He, was invited by U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, the ministry said.
Economists and business groups said earlier that a decision by Liu and Lighthizer to take part in person would indicate technical discussions made enough progress to require high-level political decisions.
The two sides have imposed tariff hikes of up to 25 percent on tens of billions of dollars of each other's goods in the fight over U.S. complaints Beijing steals or pressures companies to hand over technology. Washington also is pressing China to roll back plans for state-led industry development that its trading partners say violate its market-opening obligations.
The Washington talks are aimed at carrying out the Dec. 1 agreement by Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping to suspend further tariff increases for 90 days while they negotiate, said Ministry of Commerce spokesman Gao Feng.
They are likely to take up more complex U.S. complaints about Chinese policy on which lower-level officials "couldn't give a clear response," said Yu Chunhai, a trade expert at Renmin University in Beijing.
Chinese officials have suggested Beijing might adjust its industry plans. But they reject pressure to abandon what they consider a path to prosperity and global influence.
Liu probably will tell U.S. officials "what China can and can't do," said Yu.
For their part, Chinese leaders object to U.S. export controls on "dual use" technology with possible military uses. They say Chinese companies are treated unfairly in national security reviews of proposed corporate acquisitions, though almost all deals are approved unchanged.
"Such communication must be made between officials at a higher level," said Yu.
Neither side has shown any sign of changing its basic position. Economists say the 90-day window is too short to resolve conflicts that have strained their relations for nearly two decades.
Chinese exports to the United States held up through much of 2018 despite Trump's tariff hikes but contracted by 3.5 percent in December compared with a year earlier as the penalties began to depress demand.
Liu held talks in June in Beijing with U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross as trade tensions mounted. They failed to produce a settlement and Trump went ahead the next month with his first tariff hikes.
Liu made a surprise appearance at this month's talks in Beijing. Financial markets took that as a positive sign. Global stock markets rose but then fell back after the meeting produced no agreements.
U.S.-Chinese relations are increasingly strained over technology, trade and cyber-spying.
This month's talks in Beijing went ahead despite the arrest of an executive of Chinese technology giant Huawei in Canada on Dec. 1. The United States wants her extradited on charges that she lied to a bank about dealings with Iran.
On Thursday, The Wall Street Journal reported U.S. prosecutors are investigating whether Huawei stole trade secrets from U.S. companies.
The investigation was prompted in part by a lawsuit brought by T-Mobile U.S. Inc. that accused two Huawei employees of stealing technology for a robotic arm used to test mobile phones, the Journal said, citing unidentified sources. The two companies settled their dispute in 2017.
"We doubt the intentions behind this," said a foreign ministry spokeswoman, Hua Chunying. She said it would be "inconsistent with the rules of free and fair competition" if U.S. authorities "arbitrarily used the state apparatus to suppress Chinese enterprises."
Beijing has tried to defuse pressure for more sweeping changes by emphasizing its growing importance as an import market and promising more access to its auto and some other industries.
Trump has complained repeatedly about the U.S. trade deficit with China. China reported Monday its 2018 trade surplus with the United States swelled to a record $323.3 billion.
Beijing also faces complaints from the European Union. The 28-nation trade bloc has filed a challenge in the World Trade Organization against Chinese licensing rules it says hinder foreign companies from protecting and profiting from their own technologies.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Renewed Worries Over U.S.-China Trade Spat Stalk Markets-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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17 January 2019
Financial Markets (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

Renewed worries over the U.S.-China trade spat weighed on global stock markets on Thursday.


KEEPING SCORE: In Europe, Germany's DAX fell 0.5 percent at 10,880 and France's CAC 40 retreated 0.5 percent to 4,787. Britain's FTSE 100 declined 0.7 percent to 6,818. Wall Street was set to fall at the open with Dow futures and the broader S&P 500 futures down 0.4 percent.
US-CHINA TENSIONS: A Wall Street Journal report, citing people familiar with the matter, said federal prosecutors were investigating China's Huawei Technologies Ltd. for allegedly stealing trade secrets from American companies including T-Mobile. The report said the investigation resulted from several civil lawsuits against Huawei and an indictment could be issued soon. This revived worries over relations between the two countries as officials struggle to find a compromise ahead of the Mar. 1 end of a moratorium on raising tariffs against each other's exports. Negotiators from both countries recently held trade talks in Beijing and more high level negotiations are in the works.
ANALYST TAKE: "investors are worried by a U.S. probe into Huawei and what that will mean for the trade talks between America and China," said Connor Campbell, an analyst at Spreadex.
BREXIT: Traders in U.K. assets are also trying to work out what's going on with regard to the country's upcoming exit from the European Union. Though Prime Minister Theresa May saw her Brexit deal with the EU overwhelmingly defeated by lawmakers, her government won a no-confidence vote on Wednesday. Now she's holding meetings with others in parliament to see if there is a Plan B. However, there are few signs that she's willing to drop her red lines for any Brexit solution, suggesting that the discussions are unlikely to make much headway. Still, the pound was up another 0.2 percent at $1.2909 as traders think the prospect of a 'no-deal' Brexit have diminished.
ASIA'S DAY: Hong Kong's Hang Seng dropped 0.5 percent to 26,755.63 and the Shanghai Composite index lost 0.4 percent to 2,559.64. Japan's Nikkei 225 index edged 0.2 percent lower to 20,402.27 while Australia's S&P ASX 200 rose 0.3 percent to 5,850.10. South Korea's Kospi added 0.1 percent to 2,107.06. Shares rose in Taiwan, Thailand and Indonesia but fell in Singapore.
ENERGY: Benchmark U.S. crude oil fell $1.05 to $51.24 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, while Brent crude, the international standard, declined $1.03 to $60.29.
CURRENCIES: The euro was up 0.1 percent at $1.1402 while the dollar fell 0.3 percent to 108.74 yen.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Wednesday, 16 January 2019

Nifty, Sensex Pauses for Breath- Wednesday closing report-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


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16 January 2019

The major indices of the Indian stock markets opened higher on Wednesday and closed flat. On the NSE, there were 828 advances, 861 declines and 374 unchanged. 


Broadly negative global cues, especially owing to the political uncertainty in the UK, subdued the Indian equity market on Wednesday. Globally, investors reacted with caution after the incumbent British government lost the Brexit vote triggering a no-confidence motion. However, positive macro-trade data kept the benchmark Sensex and Nifty in the green for most part of the day's session. 

The trade deficit in December narrowed due to fall in imports -- $41.01 billion or 2.44 per cent down from $42.03 billion in the same month in 2017. Interest-sensitive banking stocks led the gains on both BSE and NSE as investors expect the central bank to cut policy rates in the Monitory Policy Committee (MPC) meet scheduled for February 7. Recent data has indicated a cooling inflation providing room for the RBI to go for the rate cut, analysts said.

Etihad offered to invest in Jet Airways at 50% discount of Jet’s 15 January closing price. Jet Airways has now gone through three consecutive quarters of over Rs 1,000 crore in losses. Earlier reports suggested the airline's lessors and MRO (maintenance, repair, overhaul) partners are losing patience over non-payment of dues. And its lenders are now wary of a Kingfisher-like situation after Jet Airways defaulted on loan repayments in December. Jet Airways owes over Rs 8,000 crore to SBI-led consortium and its account. As a part of restructuring, Etihad, which holds a 24% stake in the Naresh Goyal-led company, said it would invest in Jet only at a price of Rs150 apiece, which is nearly half of Tuesday's closing price of Rs 294.40.  

SBI plans to sell over Rs 15,000 crore worth bad loans belonging to Essar Steel to recover its dues from the debt-laden steel maker. The lender has put the reserve price for the recovery of bad loans from Essar Steel India at Rs 9,587.64 crore. SBI said the resolution plan for the recovery of non-performing asset (NPA) has been approved and filed in NCLT Ahmedabad, according to which the minimum recovery to the bank is Rs 11,313.42 crore.

The top gainers and top losers of the major indices are given in the table below:


The closing values of the major Asian indices are given in the table below:


Major Indices (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)


BJP wants expansionary economic policy ahead of 2019 election -The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


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16 January 2019
 
Prime Minister's party (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)


Prime Minister Narendra Modi's party is in favour of an expansionary economic policy and does not consider the government's plan to keep the fiscal deficit to 3.3 percent of GDP as "sacrosanct", a party spokesman told Reuters. 

Ahead of a general election that must be held by May and after a string of losses in recent state polls, the government run by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has announced several stimulus measures for the countryside where millions of farmers are grappling with low crop prices. Other fiscal moves have been aimed at helping small businesses.

The measures are likely to be a drain on finances in Asia’s third-biggest economy, though the Modi administration is expected to get the Reserve Bank of India to agree to transfer an interim dividend of 300-400 billion rupees ($4.32 billion-$5.8 billion) to the government by March, Reuters reported last week quoting sources.

Weak consumer spending and the fragile farm sector have already been a drag on economic growth, creating a headache for Modi as he struggles to meet ambitious job creation targets.

India lost 11 million jobs last year, with around 83 percent in rural areas, according to independent think-tank the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy, as operational costs surged for small businesses. Those costs were boosted by the launch of a national sales tax in 2017 and the economic impact of an earlier ban on high value currency notes.

 “There’s a demand, there’s a debate - all my colleagues are saying what’s the need of keeping the fiscal deficit in check when there is a distress in a particular sector,” said Gopal Krishna Agarwal, the economic affairs spokesman for the Hindu nationalist BJP, referring to the farm sector.

“Even think-tanks associated with us are talking in this sense. Very few people domestically are talking about fiscal prudence. Only foreign think-tanks are talking fiscal prudence, fiscal prudence. I strongly believe an expansionary policy can benefit the party,” he said in an interview on Tuesday night.

India’s 10-year benchmark bond yield rose 4 basis points to 7.53 percent after the news, its highest since January 8 on worries about the fiscal deficit. The rupee also weakened to 71.23 to the dollar from its previous close of 71.03.

Agarwal, a chartered accountant who is a director at state-run Bank of Baroda and a member of a government committee on small and medium-sized businesses, said Modi was aware of his party colleagues’ thinking but that no final decision had been taken.

D.S. Malik, a spokesman for the Ministry of Finance, did not respond to calls and emails seeking comment. Finance Minister Arun Jaitley, who is in the United States for a medical check-up, said in a Facebook post on Tuesday that India’s “fiscal discipline during the past five years has been amongst the best as compared to any preceding period”. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

India's e-commerce curbs could hit online sales by $46 billion by 2022 - PwC draft analysis-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


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16 January 2019
 
E-commerce sector(The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)


India’s new foreign investment restrictions for its e-commerce sector, which includes giants such as Amazon.com Inc and Walmart-owned Flipkart, could reduce online sales by $46 billion by 2022, according to a draft analysis from global consultants PwC seen by Reuters. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Under the changes, e-commerce firms in India will from Feb. 1 not be able to sell products via companies in which they have an equity interest or push sellers to sell exclusively on their platforms.

Announced in December, just months before a general election due by May this year, the rules were seen as an attempt by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government to appease millions of small traders and shopkeepers, who form a key voter base and say their businesses have been threatened by global online retailers.

Industry sources told Reuters the policy would delay or derail some investment plans and push companies such as Amazon and Flipkart to create new, more complex business structures.

In a private analysis PwC conducted based on estimates provided by the industry and using publicly available information, it forecast that online retail sales growth, tax collections and job creation would be severely hit if companies changed their business models to comply with the new policy.The draft analysis has not been made public. PwC India, in response to Reuters’ questions, said it “does not endorse any of these assumptions or conclusions, nor have we conducted any independent study on this”.

“As a matter of policy, we do not comment on company specific issues,” PwC said.
The analysis produced by PwC showed that the gross-merchandise value of goods sold online could reduce by $800 million from expectations in the current fiscal year that ends in March, a document seen by Reuters showed. Then, the sales would dip drastically below previous forecasts, lopping off $45.2 billion in the next three years, the data showed.

To be sure, sales would still be growing, but at a less robust rate than envisaged before the policy change.

Online retailers often use gross merchandise value, or GMV, based on monthly online sales as a measurement of performance, as they typically make revenue from the commissions they get from sellers.

The analysis also said that by March 2022 the Indian policy could lead to the creation of 1.1 million fewer jobs than may have been previously expected and lead to a reduction in taxes collected of $6 billion.

Amazon and Flipkart have both sought an extension of the Feb. 1 deadline, but a source at India’s commerce ministry told Reuters the government was unlikely to agree.

Amazon said in a statement it remains “committed to be compliant to all local laws” but has asked the government for a an extension of four months.
Flipkart has sought a six-month extension, a source said. Though the company did not respond to Reuters questions, it told India’s Economic Times newspaper that it believed “an extension is appropriate” to ensure that all elements of the policy were clarified.

RBI Governor to meet associations of industry,commerce -The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


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16 January 2019
 
RBI (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)


Continuing his series of consultations with various stakeholders of the economy, Reserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das on Wednesday said he would meet the representatives from the industry and commerce on Thursday.

"Will meet the apex chambers/associations of industry and commerce tomorrow (17th January)," Das said in a tweet. This is his fifth tweet since he assumed charge as Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor on December 11 last year.


The meeting becomes significant as the industry expects monetary policy easing by the central bank as the inflation is down and within control. The RBI will have its sixth bimonthly monetary policy meeting on February 7 and the industry is expecting a cut in policy rates. 

Das, who replaced Urjit Patel after he suddenly resigned on December 10 following a tussle with the Central government over liquidity concerns, has been holding meetings with various groups to review the situation, unlike his predecessor.

Since joining office, Das has already held meetings with public and private sector banks, cooperative banks, MSME (micro, small and medium enterprises) associations and representatives of non-banking financial companies (NBFCs).

He had recently said the central bank will continuously monitor the liquidity situation and will take need-based steps to deal with the liquidity deficit. Liquidity became a concern after infrastructure financing company IL&FS defaulted on its dues.

While liquidity crunch hit the NBFC sector last September after payment defaults by IL&FS and its subsidiaries, small and medium industries were yet to recover from the fallout of 2016 demonetisation of high denomination currency notes and the GST rollout in July 2017.

A day after joining RBI, on December 12, Das had said that the health of public sector banks, liquidity issue and maintenance of growth trajectory of Indian economy are some of the important issues for which he would interact with stakeholders and get an internal feedback before forming a view.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

World Stocks Rise But Britain Slips On Brexit Limbo-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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16 January 2019
Financial Markets (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)


World stock markets mostly rose on Wednesday, but fell in Britain, as investors reacted to the parliamentary defeat of British Prime Minister Theresa May's plan for leaving the European Union.

KEEPING SCORE: In Europe, Germany's DAX rose less than 0.1 percent to 10,892 and France's CAC 40 added 0.3 percent to 4,797. Britain's FTSE 100 sank 0.5 percent to 6,861. Wall Street was positioned for gains, with Dow and S&P 500 futures both gaining 0.1 percent.

BREXIT VOTE: British Prime Minister Theresa May suffered a major setback Tuesday when lawmakers rejected a Brexit deal by 432 votes to 202. She was expected to lose despite last-minute campaigning for the widely unpopular deal she had brokered with the EU. Britain is set to leave the bloc on March 29. World markets were largely unaffected and the British pound tumbled before the vote but bounced back afterward. May faces a no-confidence vote later Wednesday that could trigger a general election but she is expected to survive it.

ANALYSIS: Some experts say the rejection of May's deal means there is actually a lower chance that Britain will leave the EU without a deal, though it could require a delay to the Brexit date. Many lawmakers are against leaving the EU without a deal — which would hurt the economy severely — but are divided on what to do next. The options include leaving with closer ties to the EU or even a second vote on Brexit, though it is unclear how they would come to any agreement. "The size of the defeat appears to reduce the chances of the U.K. leaving the EU without a deal on 29th March," says Paul Dales, chief U.K. economist at Capital Economics in London.

JAPAN ECONOMY: On Wednesday, Japan said its core machinery orders were flat in November at 863.1 billion yen, compared with October's 7.6 percent rise. This was also lower than analysts' expectations of a 3 percent increase. There was a sharp drop in orders from the manufacturing sector, although overseas orders climbed. The data suggests Japanese companies may be less confident in making big-ticket purchases in the face of global risks.

ASIA'S DAY: Japan's Nikkei 225 index, weighed down by weak machinery orders in December, slipped 0.6 percent to 20,442.75. South Korea's Kospi added 0.4 percent to 2,106.10 and Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 0.3 percent to 26,902.10. Australia's S&P ASX 200 added 0.4 percent to 5,835.20 while Shanghai's Composite index was flat at 2,570.42. Shares fell in Taiwan and Indonesia but rose in Malaysia and Singapore.

ENERGY: Benchmark U.S. crude oil fell 42 cents to $51.69 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract added $1.60 to settle at $52.11 per barrel on Tuesday. Brent crude, the international standard, dropped 27 cents to $60.37. It gained $1.65 to $60.64 a barrel in London.

CURRENCIES: The dollar rose to 108.78 yen from 108.69 late Tuesday. The euro edged down to $1.1385 from $1.1413, while the British pound withdrew to $1.2844 from $1.2859.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Tuesday, 15 January 2019

Nifty, Sensex Rally on Hopes of Rate Cuts – Tuesday closing report -The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


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15 January 2019

I had mentioned in Monday’s closing report that Nifty, Sensex were under pressure. The major indices of the Indian stock markets rallied on Tuesday and closed with gains over Monday’s close. On the NSE, there were 1,081 advances, 611 declines and 369 unchanged. The trends of the major indices of the Indian stock markets are given in the table below:


Sensex surged on Tuesday as lower inflation figures gave way to expectations of an ease in the monetary policy by the central bank. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is set to meet in February to decide on the policy rate. Lower fuel prices eased India's retail inflation in December to 2.19%, a 18-month low, from the annual rate of 2.33% in November, data showed after the markets closed on Monday. Except for the telecom counters on BSE, all the other sectors gained, led by IT (information technology), energy and oil and gas stocks.

Lower fuel prices further eased India's retail inflation in December to 2.19% from the annual rate of 2.33% in November, even as food prices appreciated somewhat over the previous month although continuing to remain in the negative zone, official data showed on Monday. Meanwhile, Commerce Ministry data earlier on Monday showed that lower fuel and manufactured products prices eased India's annual rate of inflation based on wholesale prices (WPI) to 3.80% in December 2018 from 4.64% in November, official data showed here on Monday. According to the Central Statistics Office, the fall in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), or retail inflation, last month was much sharper as compared to the CPI at 5.21% in December 2017. The Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI) deflation reversed marginally to (-)2.51% in December, from (-)2.61% in the previous month. Product-wise, prices of milk-based products, meat and fish rose during the month under review on a year-on-year (YoY) basis. In contrast, deflation in the cost of eggs, vegetables, pulses and sugar capped the overall food prices. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


Troubled Jet Airways' scrip shot up by more than 16% amidst reports that a rescue deal has been sealed between the cash-strapped airline and its partner, Etihad Airways. At present, UAE's Etihad Airways has a 24% stake in the beleaguered Jet Airways. Accordingly, the scrip rose as investors eyed a rescue deal being finalised between Jet and Etihad. It is speculated that the deal will allow Etihad to increase its stake in the airline from the current 24% to 49%. On the flip side, Jet's founder Chairman Naresh Goyal's stake will come down. Currently, the airline faces financial troubles due to high jet fuel prices, a weak rupee and low fares. Jet Airways shares closed Rs292.50, down 0.66% on the NSE.

Transport fuel rates were hiked for the fifth time this month and saw their steepest rise on Sunday, amid global crude oil rates continuing to climb handsomely following the implementation of output cuts by oil producers from January 1. State-run oil marketing companies increased petrol rates by 49-60 paise per litre on Sunday, while diesel prices were raised by 59-75 paise across the four major metros. As per data from Indian Oil Corp, petrol price in the Delhi was increased to Rs69.75 per litre on Sunday, while in Kolkata, Mumbai and Chennai, the fuel cost Rs71.87, Rs 75.39 and Rs72.40 per litre, respectively. Similarly, the price of diesel went up on Sunday in the national capital to Rs63.69 per litre. In Kolkata, Mumbai and Chennai, diesel sold at Rs65.46, Rs66.66 and Rs67.26 a litre, respectively.

The top gainers and top losers of the major indices are given in the table below:


The closing values of the major Asian indices are given in the table below: The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
 
Major Indices (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)