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17
November 2016
OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ16
+0.14%) are up +0.09% and European stocks are down -0.02%, both little changed
ahead of Fed Chair Yellen's testimony this morning before the Joint Economic
Committee of Congress. Dec WTI crude oil (CLZ16+1.54%) is up +1.12% and is
nudging energy producing stocks higher as OPEC and Russia prepare to meet in
Doha for more talks on coordinating oil production cuts. Asian stocks settled
mixed: Japan unch, Hong Kong -0.08%, China +0.11%, Taiwan +0.37%, Australia
+0.20%, Singapore +0.70%, South Korea +0.06%, India -0.27%. Global government
bond markets received a bid after the BOJ announced its first offer to buy an
unlimited amount of Japanese government bonds in its attempt to control the
yield curve. Global government bond yields have risen sharply over the past
week and the BOJ's action spurred short-covering in global bond markets.
The dollar index (DXY00
-0.39%) is down -0.39%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.38% after ECB Executive
Board member Mersch warned against "excessive expectations" for ECB
monetary policy. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.06%.
Dec 10-year T-note prices
(ZNZ16 +0.06%) are up +4.5 ticks.
ECB Executive Board member
Mersch warned against "excessive expectations" for ECB monetary
policy and said the ECB's extraordinary stimulus measures are not intended to
be permanent and should be withdrawn as soon as possible.
Philadelphia Fed President Harker
said that he "has been supportive for a 25 bp rate hike in Sep, in Nov,
and definitely supports a 25 bp rate hike at the Dec FOMC meeting." He
added "we don't want to get behind the curve as when inflation stats to
rise, it tends to rise quickly." The Total Investment & Insurance
Solutions
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Key U.S. news today
includes: (1) Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s prepared speech released to the public
ahead of her testimony before the Joint Economic Committee of Congress, (2)
weekly initial unemployment claims (expected +3,000 to 257,000, previous
-11,000 to 254,000) and continuing claims (expected -11,000 to 2.030 million,
previous +18,000 to 2.041 million), (3) Oct housing starts (expected +10.7% to
1.159 million, Sep -9.0% to 1.047 million), (4) Oct CPI (expected +0.4% m/m and
+1.6% y/y, Sep +0.3% m/m and +1.5% y/y) and Oct CPI ex food & energy
(expected +0.2% m/m and +2.2% y/y, Sep +0.1% m/m and +2.2% y/y), (5) Nov
Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey (expected -2.1 to 7.6, Oct -3.1 to 9.7),
(6) New York Fed President William Dudley (voter) delivers welcoming remarks at
a conference on international macroeconomics and finance hosted by the New York
Fed, (7) Fed Chair Janet Yellen speaks on the economic outlook before the Joint
Economic Committee of Congress, (8) Treasury auctions $11 billion of 10-year
TIPS, and (9) USDA weekly Export Sales.
S&P 500 earnings
reports today include: Wal-Mart (consensus $0.96), Best Buy (0.47), Staples
(0.34), Applied Materials (0.65), Ross Stores (0.56), GAP (0.60), Intuit
(0.03), Salesforce.com (0.21), Helmerich & Payne (-0.43), JM Smucker
(1.93).
U.S. IPO's scheduled to
price today: none.
Equity conferences during
the remainder of this week include:
Morgan Stanley Global
Consumer & Retail Conference on Tue-Thu, Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Global Energy Conference on Wed-Thu, Jefferies London Health Care Conference on
Wed-Thu, Canaccord Genuity Medical Technology and Diagnostics Forum on Thu,
Vertical Research Partners Global Materials Conference on Thu, UBS Industrials
and Transportation Conference on Thum, Morgan Stanley European Technology,
Media & Telecom Conference on Fri. The Total Investment & Insurance
Solutions
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Microsoft (MSFT +1.32%) was
upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at Goldman Sachs with a price target of $68.
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG
+0.72%) was downgraded to 'Sell' from 'Neutral' at Guggenheim Securities.
Cisco (CSCO -0.41%) dropped
over 4% in pre-market trading after it said it sees Q2 adjusted EPS of 55
cents-57 cents, weaker than consensus of 59 cents.
NetApp (NTAP -0.40%) jumped
10% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 adjusted EPS of 60 cents,
better than consensus of 54 cents.
Shopify (SHOP +1.10%) was
rated a new 'Buy' at BTIG LLC with a 12-month target price of $55.
EQT Midstream Partners LP
(EQM -2.31%) was rated a new 'Buy' at Drexel Hamilton LLC with a 12-month price
target of $86.
Performance Food Group
(PFGC +1.69%) slid over 2% in after-hours trading after it announced a
secondary offering of 10 million shares of common stock.
Amgen (AMGN +0.12%) gained
almost 1% in after-hours trading after it said migraine suffers treated in a
second Phase 3 study of its erenumab drug significantly reduced their migraine
days compared with a placebo.
L Brands (LB -1.14%) fell
2% in after-hours trading after it said it sees Q4 EPS of $1.85-$2.00, below
consensus of $2.03.
First Solar (FSLR -1.11%)
sank over 10% in after-hours trading after it said it sees 2017 adjusted EPS of
break-even to 50 cents, well below consensus of $1.82.
Planet Fitness (PLNT
+0.12%) dropped nearly 4% in after-hours trading after it announced a secondary
offering of 15 million shares of common stock.
Aclaris Therapeutics (ACRS
-2.43%) tumbled 10% in after-hours trading after it announced a public offering
of $65 million of common stock. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
MARKET COMMENTS
Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ16
+0.14%) this morning are up +2.00 points (+0.09%). Wednesday's closes: S&P
500 -0.16%, Dow Jones -0.29%, Nasdaq +0.58%. The S&P 500 on Wednesday
closed lower on the U.S. Oct industrial production report of unchanged (weaker
than expectations of +0.2%) and on concern that the Fed is closer to raising
interest rates after St. Louis Fed President Bullard (voter) said that December
would be a "reasonable time" to raise interest rates. Stocks were
boosted by the lack of price pressures on the wholesale level after the U.S.
Oct core PPI report of -0.2% m/m and +1.2% y/y was weaker than expectations of
+0.2% m/m and +1.6% y/y.
Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ16
+0.06%) this morning are up +4.5 ticks. Wednesday's closes: TYZ6 +1.50, FVZ6
-0.50. Dec 10-year T-notes on Wednesday recovered from a 10-1/4 month low and
closed higher on the the weaker-than-expected U.S. Oct PPI report and the
weaker-than-expected U.S. Oct manufacturing and industrial production data. Dec
10-year T-notes posted a 10-1/4 month low early in the session on hawkish
comments from St. Louis Fed President Bullard who said that next month's FOMC
meeting would be a "reasonable time" to raise interest rates.
The dollar index (DXY00
-0.39%) this morning is down -0.390 (-0.39%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0041
(+0.38%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.06 (-0.06%). Wednesday's closes: Dollar
index +0.180 (+0.18%), EUR/USD -0.0031 (-0.29%), USD/JPY -0.12 (-0.11%). The
dollar index on Wednesday rose to a 13-1/2 year high and settled higher on
hawkish comments from St. Louis Fed President Bullard who said that December
would be a "reasonable time" to raise interest rates. In addition,
the Chinese yuan fell to a 7-3/4 year low against the dollar on concern over
President-elect Trump's trade policies with China. EUR/USD fell to an 11-1/2
month low as the Fed is expected to raise interest rates while the ECB
maintains or even expands its QE program.
Dec crude oil prices (CLZ16
+1.54%) are up +51 cents (+1.12%) and Dec gasoline (RBZ16 +1.61%) is up +0.0183
(+1.39%). Wednesday's closes: Dec crude -0.24 (-0.52%), Dec gasoline -0.0181
(-1.36%). Dec crude oil and gasoline on Wednesday closed lower as Dec crude
retreated from a 2-week high. Crude oil prices were undercut by the rally in
the dollar index to a 13-1/2 year high and by the EIA report, which showed a
+5.274 million bbl increase in weekly EIA crude inventories (vs expectations of
+1.5 million bbl) and an unexpected +746,000 bbl increase in EIA gasoline
inventories (vs expectations for a -700,000 bbl draw). Crude posted a 2-week
high early in the session on optimism OPEC will be able to agree on production
cuts after Russian Oil Minister Novak said he sees a "high chance" of
an OPEC accord on Nov 30.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
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