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STOCK INDEX FUTURES
NASDAQ futures advanced to new historical highs
yesterday. However, stock index futures are lower today as industrial metals
prices declined, U.K. retail sales fell in January and European equity markets
are mostly weaker.
The 9:00 central time January leading index is
expected to be up .5%.
The main trend for stock index futures is higher. The Total Investment & Insurance
Solutions
CURRENCY FUTURES
After two days of lower prices the U.S. dollar
is higher today in spite of lowered prospects of tighter credit policies from
the Federal Open Market Committee.
Strength in the U.S. dollar is likely to be
limited due to the belief that a greenback that is too strong will prompt
verbal intervention from U.S. government officials.
The euro currency is lower as a result of political
uncertainties in France and dovish commentary from the European Central Bank.
Yesterday there were press reports that economic stimulus from the European
Central Bank will not be removed until inflation has risen in a sustainable way.
The British pound is lower after a report showed
retail sales in the U.K. fell for a third month, declining .3% in January. The
median estimate called for an increase of 1%.
Lower crude oil prices pressured the Canadian
dollar and the Australian dollar.
The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES
Thirty year
Treasury bond futures are higher as a result of lower stock index futures and
mostly weaker industrial commodities.
In addition, there was some support on news that
China snapped a six month streak of selling U.S. Treasuries in December, even
though its holdings for the year declined by the most on record. China's
holdings of U.S. Treasuries increased by $9.1 billion in December to $1.06
trillion. This was the first monthly increase since May.
There was also support due to lessened prospects
of tighter credit policies from the FOMC.
The probability that the Federal Open Market
Committee will increase its fed funds rate at its March 15 policy meeting is
18%, when 22%was predicted yesterday. The probability of a rate hike at its May
3 meeting is 44%, which compares to 49% yesterday and the probability of a rate
increase at the June 14 meeting is 70%, when 75% was expected on Thursday.
Longer term, the dominant inflation influence,
both commodity and wage inflation, will push futures lower, especially the 30
year Treasury bonds. The Total
Investment & Insurance Solutions
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
March
17 S&P 500
Support 2333.00 Resistance 2354.00
March
17 U.S. Dollar Index
Support 100.310 Resistance 100.880
March
17 Euro Currency
Support 1.06320 Resistance 1.06960
March
17 Japanese Yen
Support .88000 Resistance .88920
March
17 Canadian Dollar
Support .76270 Resistance .76670
March
17 Australian Dollar
Support .7644 Resistance .7731
March
17 Thirty Year Treasury Bonds
Support 150^12 Resistance 152^2
April
17 Gold
Support 1233.0Resistance 1249.0
March
17 Copper
Support 2.6800 Resistance 2.7450
April
17 Crude Oil
Support 53.03 Resistance 54.35
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