U.S. Dollar Higher, But Looking Toppy-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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17 February 2017

STOCK INDEX FUTURES

NASDAQ futures advanced to new historical highs yesterday. However, stock index futures are lower today as industrial metals prices declined, U.K. retail sales fell in January and European equity markets are mostly weaker.

The 9:00 central time January leading index is expected to be up .5%.

The main trend for stock index futures is higher. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

CURRENCY FUTURES

After two days of lower prices the U.S. dollar is higher today in spite of lowered prospects of tighter credit policies from the Federal Open Market Committee.

Strength in the U.S. dollar is likely to be limited due to the belief that a greenback that is too strong will prompt verbal intervention from U.S. government officials.

The euro currency is lower as a result of political uncertainties in France and dovish commentary from the European Central Bank. Yesterday there were press reports that economic stimulus from the European Central Bank will not be removed until inflation has risen in a sustainable way.

The British pound is lower after a report showed retail sales in the U.K. fell for a third month, declining .3% in January. The median estimate called for an increase of 1%.

Lower crude oil prices pressured the Canadian dollar and the Australian dollar. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES

Thirty year Treasury bond futures are higher as a result of lower stock index futures and mostly weaker industrial commodities.

In addition, there was some support on news that China snapped a six month streak of selling U.S. Treasuries in December, even though its holdings for the year declined by the most on record. China's holdings of U.S. Treasuries increased by $9.1 billion in December to $1.06 trillion. This was the first monthly increase since May.

There was also support due to lessened prospects of tighter credit policies from the FOMC.

The probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will increase its fed funds rate at its March 15 policy meeting is 18%, when 22%was predicted yesterday. The probability of a rate hike at its May 3 meeting is 44%, which compares to 49% yesterday and the probability of a rate increase at the June 14 meeting is 70%, when 75% was expected on Thursday.

Longer term, the dominant inflation influence, both commodity and wage inflation, will push futures lower, especially the 30 year Treasury bonds. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

March 17 S&P 500

Support 2333.00 Resistance 2354.00

March 17 U.S. Dollar Index

Support 100.310 Resistance 100.880

March 17 Euro Currency

Support 1.06320 Resistance 1.06960

March 17 Japanese Yen

Support .88000 Resistance .88920

March 17 Canadian Dollar

Support .76270 Resistance .76670

March 17 Australian Dollar

Support .7644 Resistance .7731

March 17 Thirty Year Treasury Bonds

Support 150^12 Resistance 152^2

April 17 Gold

Support 1233.0Resistance 1249.0

March 17 Copper

Support 2.6800 Resistance 2.7450

April 17 Crude Oil

Support 53.03 Resistance 54.35