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STOCK INDEX FUTURES
Stock index futures fell yesterday as traders
started to question the rate of progress of President Trump’s pro-growth strategies.
Mortgage applications in the week
ended March 17 fell 2.7%, which compares to the 3.1% increase in the previous
week.
The 9:00 central time February
existing home sales report is expected to show a .4% increase to 5.55 million. The Total Investment & Insurance
Solutions
Our computer models suggest the
bull market for stock index futures will continue in spite of the current
political uncertainties and higher interest rates from the Federal Reserve.
CURRENCY FUTURES
The U.S. dollar fell yesterday and
is only a little higher today. The greenback appears to be underperforming,
while other markets such as Treasuries and the Japanese yen, are being
supported by the flight to quality influence.
Also, the U.S. dollar continues to
be undermined by the statement from last week’s Federal Open Market Committee
meeting, which indicated a measured pace of rate hikes rather than the
aggressive schedule of increases that some analysts had predicted.
The U.S. dollar has lost its
interest rate differential expectations advantage that propelled the greenback
to 14 year highs last year. The
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The euro currency is little better
even though a report showed the euro zone current account surplus narrowed in
January from the previous month.
The British pound made a four week
high in the overnight trade. However, recent profit taking took the pound a
little lower. The Total
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Strength in the pound yesterday was
linked to news that U.K. inflation exceeded estimates, rising above the Bank of
England’s inflation target for the first time in over three years.
Financial futures markets are now
predicting the Bank of England will increase its key lending rate by 25 basis
points in August of 2018.
INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES
Futures advanced yesterday and
today due to flight to quality buying, as traders began questioning the rate of
progress of President Trump’s pro-growth strategies.
There are no Federal Reserve
speakers today. However, Fed Chair Yellen will speak tomorrow, giving the
opening keynote at the Federal Reserve System Community Development Research
Conference in Washington.
The probability of a rate hike at
the Fed’s May 3 policy meeting is 6%, which is unchanged from Monday and the
probability of a rate increase at the June 14 meeting is 54%, which compares to
58% yesterday.
While flight to quality buying has
recently, and likely only temporarily supported the thirty year Treasury bond
futures, the dominant bearish influence will put pressure on futures in the
longer term. The Total
Investment & Insurance Solutions
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
June 17 S&P 500
Support 2329.00 Resistance 2347.00
June 17 U.S. Dollar
Index
Support 99.420 Resistance 99.830
June 17 Euro Currency
Support 1.08110 Resistance 1.08780
June 17 Japanese Yen
Support .89710 Resistance .90500
June 17 Canadian
Dollar
Support .74540 Resistance .75130
June 17 Australian
Dollar
Support .7621 Resistance .7686
June 17 Thirty Year
Treasury Bonds
Support 150^2 Resistance 150^30
April 17 Gold
Support 1239.0Resistance 1255.0
May 17 Copper
Support 2.5800 Resistance 2.6300
May 17 Crude Oil
Support 47.27 Resistance 48.55
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