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11
May 2017
India
may receive ahigher rainfall this year than previously predicted, a top IMD
official said on Wednesday citing the weakening of the El Nino phenomenon.
India
would see normal monsoon with 96 per cent of rainfall still maintained as the
current forecast, and an update could only be known by the first week of June,
K.J. Ramesh, Director General of India Meteorological Department, told IANS.
"From
the current trend where for now the strong El Nino is weakening, the monsoon
may increase," he said. The Total
Investment & Insurance Solutions
"We
will still have to wait and watch though," Ramesh said.
According
to the IMD official, the actual status of the overall rainfall in India depends
on the future status of El Nino and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) activities.
The
pattern suggests that a moderate or strong El Nino and a positive IOD results
in good rainfall. The Total Investment
& Insurance Solutions
El
Nino is a climatic phenomenon which is the warm phase of the cycle in the
Pacific Ocean and IOD is a climate event occurring over the equatorial Indian
Ocean. Both impact the monsoon.
The
India Meteorological Department (IMD) earlier in April predicted a 96 per cent
monsoon for 2017 season average, with a moderate error estimated at 'plus-minus
five per cent' of the Long Period Average (LPA). The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
On
Tuesday, some reports claimed IMD predicting that the monsoon could be above
normal and bring 100 per cent rainfall instead of 96 per cent predicted
earlier.
The
IMD assessment also suggested 38 per cent of probability for "near normal
monsoon rainfall", depending on the situation of El Nino and IOD.
A
figure between 96 and 104 per cent of rainfall indicates a normal monsoon and
between 105 and 110 per cent above normal.
"There
are two constraints; first is being near normal which is about 96 per cent. The
second prediction is based on a weakening trend of the El Nino, which may lead
towards the positive trend of a near normal rainfall (based on the 38 per cent
probability). But we will still have to wait for the actual range," Ramesh
said.
He
further added that the present trends which may lead to a moderate El Nino
could increase the rainfall based on the 36 per cent probability and a positive
trend on the error estimation of plus-minus five per cent of the Long Period
Average (LPA).
"But
we will have to see when does that happens," Ramesh said.
Indian
monsoon period is from June 1 to September 30, which is the second stage long
range forecast of monsoon rainfall.
"We
have not issued any update of the monsoon, that would be in the first week of
June. For now the prediction is still 96 per cent with error estimate of
plus-minus five," M. Mohapatra, IMD scientist, said. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
According
to private weather forecaster Skymet, if we predict the Long Period Average
from the current pattern, the monsoon would be not more than 98 per cent or in
normal conditions around 97 per cent.
"However,
there are no chances of a 100 per cent rainfall," Mahesh Palawat, director
Skymet, told . The Total Investment & Insurance
Solutions
He
added that the season would be good for the farmers anyway.
"There
are no heavy pre-monsoon rains to destroy the wheat during harvest season, and
by June, the time of planting the paddy, rainfall would range from good to
moderate," Palawat said.
He
added that while East and Central India would see normal monsoon, the pattern
in northwest region including Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and parts of Western
Uttar Pradesh, where monsoon had been below normal for past two years, will see
a comparative weaker monsoon.
"These
areas have irrigation facilities, which would balance the water consumption
with the rainfall," Palawat added. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
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