Friday, 23 June 2017

Home Loan: Affordable housing finance share to increase to 37% by FY2022 -The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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23 June 2017
 
Home Loan (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)
Accelerated urbanisation due to faster economic growth over the last decade and a half has created a massive need for affordable housing as well as home loans in the ticket size of up to Rs15 lakh, says a research note. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

In its report, India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) says, "Affordable housing finance, largely for loan ticket size up to Rs15 lakh will become a large segment for housing finance companies (HFCs) in the next five years, with the estimated share to increase to around 37% in FY2022, compared with 26% in FY2017." The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Ind-Ra says it anticipates a demand for 2.5 crore homes, which is four times of the entire current housing finance stock, over next five years, in the medium income group (MIG) and lower income group (LIG) categories. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

"A combination of factors like government financial and policy thrust, regulatory support, rising urbanisation, increasing nuclearisation of families, and increasing affordability is converting latent demand into a commercially lucrative business opportunity," the ratings agency added.

Ind-Ra expects the sector to attract over Rs20,000 crore of equity inflows over FY2017-FY2022, which would support growth. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Ind-Ra's analysis reveals that on operating cost metrics, the new entrants with their pan-India ambitions would need to build scale quickly to compete with the incumbents, whose regional-focussed models have helped maintain tight operational expenses (opex) ratios, in addition to their funding cost advantage. 

This, Ind-Ra says, entails building up the book at a rapid pace and hence will lead to high proportion of unseasoned portfolio at any point in time. To offset this, it would necessitate having the right people “with adequate skill-set”, who have seen various cycles and scale and the right 'processes', building a scalable credit funnel and robust underwriting platform while getting the pricing, including risk and opex adjusted spreads, right. These would be the key differentiators for the new age housing finance companies (HFCs). The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

According to the ratings agency, informal credit assessment remains the crux for the segment, and therefore reasonable assessment of instalment-paying ability, while keeping sufficient margin for income volatility over lifecycle, would be of prime importance.

Talking about key risks and possible mitigants, Ind-Ra says, aggressive expansion without ensuring appropriate credit assessment could be a risk for the segment, especially in view of limited financial data available and possibly a less financial savvy customer segment. 

"In addition, the segment requires high customer connect, therefore, attracting and retaining people with on ground connect would be of prime importance," the ratings agency says, adding, "HFCs would need to build a sense of ownership, as well as develop a right incentive structure to manage this risk. Operationally, managing liquidity, mainly in view of long tenure nature of assets, would be key consideration." The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


Ind-Ra says it expects a prudent asset liability tenure management by HFCs. "Informal credit assessment remains the crux for the segment, and hence reasonable assessment of instalment paying ability while keeping sufficient margin for income volatility over lifecycle would be of prime importance," it concluded. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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