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8 September 2017
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| Inflation (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions) |
Consumer
price index-based inflation is likely to record a rise to 3.2 percent in
August, driven by increases in food and oil prices, global brokerage Morgan
Stanley said in a report. The Total
Investment & Insurance Solutions
CPI inflation stood at 2.4 percent in July.
At the same time, stronger food and oil
prices are also expected to accelerate wholesale price index (WPI) index to 2.9
percent in August from 1.9 percent in July, the global brokerage said in the
report.
"As base effects waned, we estimate food
inflation of 1.7 percent year-on-year in August as compared to (-) 0.3 percent
year-on-year in July, which would mark the first positive year-on-year growth
print after 3 months of deflation in food prices," Morgan Stanley said. The Total Investment & Insurance
Solutions
"Inflation excluding food and fuel
should likely remained sticky at 4.1 percent year-on-year as the impact of the
rent house allowance continued to feed through," it added. The Total Investment & Insurance
Solutions
Further, the report estimates that the
country's current account deficit would widen to USD 11.2 billion (1.9 percent
of GDP) for April-June quarter 2017 from USD 3.5 billion (0.6 percent of GDP)
in the preceding quarter.
However, it noted that CAD would still remain
within the central bank's comfort zone.
The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
Going by Morgan Stanley estimates, the trade
deficit is expected to narrow to about USD 10.3 billion in August from USD 11.5
billion in July, driven by seasonal factors. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
"With higher oil prices and unfavourable
base effects, we expect a moderation in both export and import growth on
year-on-year basis," the report said.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
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