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14 Aug 2018
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| GDP (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions) |
The Indian economy is expected to grow at 7.4 per cent in the current
fiscal, higher than the previous year, said a Ficci survey released today.
Rising oil prices however are putting pressure on the current account,
while global uncertainties around trade and financial markets carry serious
risks for the rupee, according to the economists who participated in the
Ficci's Economic Outlook Survey.
Also, trade tensions between major economies is disturbing the global
recovery, it said.
The survey forecasts an annual median GDP growth at 7.4 per cent for
2018-19, with a minimum and maximum range of 7.1 per cent and 7.5 per cent,
respectively.
"The projection is in line with the estimates put out by the
Reserve Bank earlier this month," it said.
The expansion in the GDP was 6.7 per cent (provisional) in 2017-18.
On the growth in the first quarter of the current fiscal, the survey
said the expansion in the economic activity would be 7.1 per cent.
The Central Statistics Office (CSO) is scheduled to release the first
quarter GDP number on August 31.
On rupee, the industry chamber said the economists universally believe
that the Indian currency will remain under strain.
"Majority of economists believed that the fair value of Indian
Rupee vis-à-vis the US Dollar would be in the range of 65 to 66," the
survey said.
The study further said the median growth forecast for agriculture and
allied activities has been put at 3 per cent for 2018-19.
Although there has been some slippage in the monsoons during June and July,
updated forecast for August and September indicate a pick-up in rainfall.
Further, industry and services sector are expected to grow by 6.9 per
cent and 8.3 per cent, respectively in 2018-19.
Ficci said the outlook of the economists on inflation seems benign. The
Consumer Price Index or retail inflation has been forecast at 4.8 per cent for
the year as whole. PTI NKD CS SA SAThe
Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
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