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26 November
2018
 |
| GDP
(The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions) |
India’s
GDP is showing a marginal declining trend, and may grow 7.50%-7.60% in the
July-September quarter, says the latest SBI report.
The
SBI Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) developed by the bank detects early
signals of turning points in economic activity by taking the basket of 21
leading indicators. The Total Investment & Insurance
Solutions
The
report stated that the headline Q2 Gross Value Addition (GVA) growth could be
7.3%-7.4%, due to the slowing of rural demand. Of particular concern, is that
non-food credit, bank deposits and sale of passenger and commercial vehicles
have slowed down as compared to previous month. Also with a slowdown in
government spending in the second half of FY19, the fiscal impulses to growth
would now be clearly missing.
However,
double-digit growth was maintained during July 2018 to Sep 2018 in commercial
vehicle sales, domestic air passenger traffic and cement production. All these
indicators pushed up GVA in the Q2 of FY19.
“We
also believe that the growth numbers in Q2 will be helped by a weak base in
Q2FY18. We estimate that the base impact on Q2 GVA growth is around 30 bps.
Based on tax collections, we subsequently expect Q2 GDP growth at 7.5%-7.6% (Q1
at 8.2%).” says the report. The Total Investment & Insurance
Solutions
On
the Corporate front, Corporate GVA which decelerated since Q1 FY18 rebounded in
Q1 FY19 and exhibited positive growth of 8% and Q2 results suggest that
corporate GVA has improved further to 13.82%. Manufacturing sector that grew by
5.7% in FY18 could now accelerate in FY19 with possible support from both crude
oil prices and subsequent strengthening of the rupee.
Official
quarterly GDP estimates given by Central Statistics Office (CSO) are scheduled
to release on 30 November 2018.The Total
Investment & Insurance Solutions
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