Tuesday, 21 June 2016

Nifty, Sensex are still on course to head higher – Tuesday closing report 21St June 2016

Nifty, Sensex are still on course to head higher – Tuesday closing report 21St June 2016
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I had mentioned in Monday’s closing report that Nifty, Sensex were headed higher. The major indices of the Indian stock markets were range-bound on Tuesday and closed with small losses over Monday’s close. The trends of the major indices in the course of Tuesday’s trading are given in the table below:
 Profit booking, combined with negative global cues and a weak rupee, subdued the Indian equity markets on Tuesday resulting in the key indices trading marginally in the red during the mid-afternoon session with heavy selling pressure witnessed in banking, consumer durables and capital goods stocks. The key Indian indices ended in the green on Monday, following economic reforms and higher global equity markets. Initially on Tuesday, the equity markets opened on a flat-to-positive note, in-sync with their Asian peers. The Asian markets gained on the back of increased chances of Britain staying on in the Eurozone. The island nation will go in for a referendum on this issue later this week. However, profit booking, consolidation and negative European markets dragged the key domestic indices lower. Further, investors were seen concerned about US Federal Reserve Chairperson Janet Yellen's testimony to the US Congress. The testimony can provide further cues towards the next phase of the key lending rate hikes. In its two-day policy meet last week, the US FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) decided to maintain its key lending rates. The US Fed signalled its intention to limit the times it might increase key lending rates due to weak domestic jobs market. A hike in the US interest rates can potentially lead FPIs (Foreign Portfolio Investors) away from emerging markets such as India. Besides, lower global crude oil prices and a weak rupee eroded investors' risk-taking appetite.

With two more days to go for the crucial referendum on Britain's continuance in the European Union, speculation over its exit (Brexit) is making the global economy nervous and the unfolding situation is being closely watched, a top World Bank official has said. “It’s clear that the discussion around Brexit is one of several factors that is contributing to uncertainty in the global economy,” Ayhan Kose, director of the World Bank Group’s Development Prospects Group, told IANS in an e-mail interview. Kose, however, did not comment on queries over Brexit's possible impact on India. He said the event was being closely watched by the World Bank, though it does not want to speculate on the outcome. The referendum is slated for June 23. The United Kingdom represents more than 15% of European Union’s GDP (gross domestic product), 25% of its financial services activity, and 30% of its stock market capitalisation. The European Union, in turn, is a key export market and source of foreign direct investment for many emerging market and developing economies. Financial market volatility around a decision to leave the European Union could lead to heightened global risk aversion, hampering already weak capital flows to emerging market and developing economies, a report said.

With increasing concern over foreign institutional investors continuing to invest in emerging markets, US President Barack Obama said on Monday that investing in the US is the "best business decision" possible because this is a country of "making and tinkering, and entrepreneurship and risk-taking, and of innovation and invention". "Investing in the United States is the best business decision you can make," he told more than 2,000 business owners and executives meeting at the Washington Hilton for the SelectUSA Investment Summit. Obama noted that the US is responsible for one-quarter of global investment in research and development, and that no other country receives more direct foreign investment. Energy costs are among the lowest, and "no country has as many top universities, and no country invests more in research and development than we do," Obama said. He acknowledged, however, that advances in technology and the process of globalisation are legitimate concerns for some workers.

In anticipation of stable interest rates in the Indian economy, interest rates for various small savings schemes have been kept unchanged for the July-October quarter of current fiscal, the government announced on Monday. A finance ministry statement here said that the interest rate on one-year deposits for the July-October quarter of 2016-17 has been kept unchanged at 7.1%. Similarly, the interest rates on two-year, three-year and five-year time deposits have been retained at 7.2%, 7.4% and 7.9% respectively. Besides, the interest rates on Public Provident Fund (PPF), the Kisan Vikas Patra scheme and the Sukanya Samriddhi Account Scheme were kept at 8.1%, 7.8% and 8.6% respectively, the statement added. The government had announced in February that small savings rates will be set quarterly to align them with the market rate of government securities.

Selling pressure was there among bank stocks in Tuesday’s trading. Axis Bank closed at Rs517.45, down 1.37%; Bank of Baroda closed at Rs149.95, down 1.28%; and IndusInd Bank closed at Rs1,090.90, down 1.07% on the BSE. Other losers among banks were Federal Bank (-0.88%), State Bank of India (-0.88%), Kotak Bank (-0.81%), HDFC Bank (-0.59%), Yes Bank (-0.43%) and ICICI Bank (-0.02%) on the BSE.

The top gainers and top losers of the major indices are given in the table below:
 The closing values of the major Asian indices are given in the table below:

MARKET COMMENTS

MARKET COMMENTS
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September E-mini S&Ps (ESU16 +0.47%) this morning are up +10.00 points (+0.48%). Monday's closes: S&P 500 +0.58%, Dow Jones +0.73%, Nasdaq +0.59%. The S&P 500 on Monday rallied to a 1-week high and closed higher on carryover support from a sharp rally in European stocks as Brexit concerns eased after the latest polls showed that Britons will vote to remain in the European Union at Thursday's referendum. Stocks were also boosted by strength in mining stocks and energy producers after copper rallied +2.1% and the price of crude oil climbed 2.9% to a 1-week high.


Sep 10-year T-note prices (ZNU16 -0.12%) this morning are down -3 ticks. Monday's closes: TYU6 -1300, FVU6 -6.25. Sep T-notes gapped lower Monday to a 1-week low and closed lower on reduced safe-haven demand for T-notes as stocks rallied sharply as the latest polls showed Britons favored remaining in the EU. T-notes were also undercut by slack demand for the Treasury's $26 billion 2-year T-note auction that had a 2.72 bid-to-cover ratio, below the 12-auction average of 3.01.


The dollar index (DXY00 +0.02%) this morning is down -0.046 (-0.05%) at a 1-1/2 month low. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0001 (+0.01%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.70 (+0.67%). Monday's closes: Dollar Index -0.595 (-0.63%), EUR/USD +0.0037 (+0.33%), USD/JPY -0.22 (-0.21%). The dollar index on Monday fell to a 1-week low and closed lower on an easing of Brexit concerns, which lifted EUR/USD to a 1-week high and GBP/USD to a 2-1/2 week high. The dollar index was also undercut by cautiousness ahead of Tuesday's testimony by Fed Chair Yellen to the Senate Banking Committee on monetary policy.


July WTI crude oil (CLN16 -1.13%) this morning is down -54 cents (-1.09%). July gasoline (RBN16 -1.60%) is down -0.0227 (-1.43%). Monday's closes: CLN6 +1.39 (+2.90%), RBN6 +0.0774 (+5.14%). Jul crude oil and gasoline on Monday rallied to 1-week highs and closed higher. Crude oil prices were boosted by the fall in the dollar index to a 1-week low and a report by the Joint Organizations Data Initiative saying that Saudi Arabian Apr crude exports fell to a 6-month low of 7.44 million bpd.


OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
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Signature Bank/New York (SBNY +0.95%) was upgraded to 'Strong Buy' from 'Outperform' at Raymond James with a 12-month price target of $162.
Abbott Laboratories (ABT +0.96%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Edward Jones.
Imperva (IMPV +0.27%) rallied over 9% in after-hours trading after Elliott Associates disclosed a 9.8% stake in Imperva and said it began a dialogue with management and board regarding strategic and operational opportunities.
Knight Transportation (KNX +3.53%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at Bank of America/Merrill Lynch.
Prologis (PLD +0.06%) was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at Deutsche Bank.
Kirby Corp. (KEX +0.90%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Outperform' at Credit Suisse.
CNOOC Ltd. (CEO +2.55%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at UBS.
Paratek Pharmaceuticals (PRTK -2.59%) slid over 2% in after-hours trading after it proposed an offering of 3.75 million shares of common stock.
Sunrun (RUN +2.66%) gained over 1% in after-hours trading after it was rated a new 'Outperform' at Oppenheimer,
American Superconductor (AMSC +1.21%) was rated a new 'Outperform' at Oppenheimer with an 18-month price target of $12.
Opko Health (OPK +1.55%) rose nearly 4% in after-hours trading after a FDA approved-drugs website indicated approval for Opko's Rayaldee drug came on June 17.
Werner (WERN +1.36%) dropped over 9% in after-hours trading after it warned that Q2 EPS may be only 21 cents-35 cents, below consensus of 40 cents, due to "sluggish" freight market conditions, driver pay and contractor cost increases.
Scynexis (SCYX +6.85%) tumbled over 11% in after-hours trading after it announced it will launch a public offering of common stock and warrants.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
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Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Fed Chair Janet Yellen testifies on monetary policy to the Senate Banking Committee, and (2) the Treasury's auction of $34 billion of 5-year T-notes.
There are 5 of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: FedEx (consensus $3.28), Lennar (0.87), CarMax (0.92), Adobe (0.68), Carnival (0.39).
U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: Selecta Biosciences (SELB), Tactile Systems Technology (TCMD)
Equity conferences this week include: Questex Sensors Expo & Conference on Tue, Real Estate Investment World Asia 2016 on Tue, Wells Fargo Convergence & Connectivity Symposium on Tue, Jefferies Consumer Conference on Tue-Wed, Wells Fargo West Coast Energy Conference on Tue-Wed, Panagora Pharma - Mobile Pharma Summit on Tue-Wed, Bernstein Global Future of Media & Telecommunications Summit on Wed, Oppenheimer Global Consumer Conference on Wed, Citigroup Insurance Conference on Thu.

Overnight Markets & News

Overnight Markets & News

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Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU16 +0.47%) are up +0.48% and European stocks are up +0.83% at a 1-week high ahead of this morning's testimony to the Senate Banking Committee by Fed Chair Yellen and by a speech to the European Parliament by ECB President Draghi. European stocks also received a boost from an unexpected jump in the German Jun ZEW survey expectations of economic growth to a 10-month high. The British pound climbed to a 5-1/2 month high against the dollar as polls show the UK campaign to remain in the European Union are gaining ground before Thursday's referendum. Asian stocks settled mixed: Japan +1.28%, Hong Kong +0.77%, China -0.35%, Taiwan +0.68%, Australia +0.33%, Singapore -0.41%, South Korea +0.07%, India -0.20%. Japan's Nikkei Stock Index moved up to a 1-week high as exporters rallied after USD/JPY strengthened.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.02%) is down -0.05% at a 1-1/2 month low. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.01%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.67%.
Sep T-note prices (ZNU16 -0.12%) are down -3 ticks.
The German Jun ZEW survey expectations of economic growth unexpectedly rose +12.8 to 19.2, stronger than expectations of -1.6 to 4.8 and the highest in 10 months.

Monday, 20 June 2016

RBI: Policies are more important than personalities
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Dr Raghuram Rajan, governor of Reserve Bank of India (RBI) ended months of speculation and suspense and told his colleagues that he was not keen on second term as chief of central bank. While Nomura says this news (Dr Rajan's decision not to continue) is negative in near terms, according to ratings agency Fitch, from a policy perspective, policies are more important than personalities.

In a release, Thomas Rookmaaker, Director in Fitch's Asia-Pacific Sovereigns Group, says, "In the past years, significant policy changes have been set in motion in India, not in the least by governor Rajan. The problems associated with both high inflation and weak bank balance sheets have been recognised, and policy makers are doing something about it, including through the set-up of new policy frameworks. Such institutionalization implies support for these policies beyond the governor, also among government officials and broader within the RBI."

"Dr Rajan added credibility to the RBI and there is no obvious successor of a similar stature," Nomura says, adding, "There is also a risk of some delay in unfinished reforms such as formation of a monetary policy committee, bank restructuring and allowing repo transactions in the corporate bond markets."

The government will announce his successor shortly. As per media reports, the potential candidates for the top post at RBI include Arvind Subramanian, Shaktikanta Das, Arvind Panagariya, Urjit Patel, Arundhati Bhattacharya and  RBI's former deputy governors Rajesh Mohan, Subir Gokarn and former secretaries Ashok Chawla and Vijay Kelkar.   

Commenting on RBI Governor's letter to RBI staff, Arundhati Bhattacharya, chairman of State Bank of India (SBI) and also one of the contenders to the Governor's post, as per media reports, said, "Dr Rajan is a person of very high calibre, who has built ably on the reputation of our Central Bank and given it a very large measure of credibility."

In his letter to staff, Dr Rajan has listed what the central bank has managed to achieve in the past three years and what remains to be done, although that process has also been initiated. Stating that he will be returning to the US University, from where he is on a sabbatical, Dr Rajan listed his unfinished agenda as seeing a monetary policy panel in place to broadly guide the central bank, and a clean-up of banks' balance sheets.

Listing the achievements, since the time India's growth was high and inflation also high when he took over, the RBI governor said price control, improving foreign exchange reserves, currency stability, an eventual lowering of interest rates and extending a helping hand for reforms stood out. 

Much speculation had gone into a possible second term for Dr Rajan, hailed by many as the best governor the central bank could have possibly had on its board during the difficult times India was going through, but also with some share of critics.

In fact, a petition that was floated online pushing for a second term for this IIT alumnus, had tens of thousands of netizens rooting for him, even as some critics like Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leader Dr Subramanian Swamy were particularly harsh towards Dr Rajan, asking Prime Minister Narendra Modi to let him go.

Infosys co-founder NR Narayana Murthy, who has been batting, in fact, for not one but two more terms for Rajan, said: "Have no doubts he will continue to add value to the country. He deserves more dignity than what he was treated with."

Dr Swamy remained unrelenting. "Raghuram Rajan was an employee of the Government of India. We do not select employees on the basis of popular vote -- and, too, of industrialists," he had said.

"...on due reflection, and after consultation with the government, I want to share with you that I will be returning to academia when my term as governor ends on 4 September 2016," Dr Rajan had said in his letter.

Nomura says, "Although the news is negative in the near term, we do not expect a lasting medium-term impact. The flexible inflation targeting framework is intact and with the move to committee-based decision making underway, we do not believe policymakers can turn a blind eye to inflation, irrespective of who fills the governor’s chair."

Fitch too feels that policies are more important than personalities, especially from a rating perspective and institutionalisation implies support for these policies beyond the governor. "The next governor seems to inherit a solid basis in this regard, providing him (or her) a good opportunity to continue to pursue relatively low consumer price inflation and strengthened bank balance sheets," the ratings agency added.


Nifty, Sensex headed higher – Monday closing report
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I had mentioned in Friday’s closing report that Nifty, Sensex were trendless. The major indices of the Indian stock markets rallied on Monday and closed nearly 1% higher than Friday’s close. The trends of the major indices in the course of Monday’s trading are given in the table below:


Higher global markets and a healthy rise in global crude oil prices, and the strong trend in US premarket futures lifted the key equity indices on Monday. The markets opened low prompted by news of Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Raghurram Rajan formally declining a second term. However, healthy buying in automobile, IT (information technology) and capital goods stocks helped pare initial losses.  There are major upcoming global event risks such as referendum in Britain on whether or not to stay as a part of the European Union (EU). Further, investors have been concerned about the US Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen's testimony to the US Congress. Value buying after the initial downslide lifted prices. Besides, higher Asian and European markets buoyed domestic key indices. 

In addition, an appreciation in rupee's value after it fell to a low of 67.70 restored investors' risk taking appetite. The Indian rupee opened on a weak note as investors reacted to the news on Rajan's exit. It touched a low of 67.70 against a US dollar, but sales by exporters and sovereign intervention pushed it back below 67.40 levels on spot.

IT and pharma sector stocks traded firm on continuous buying support, while banking stocks also traded with sideways to firm sentiments.

India, on Monday, announced major reforms in its foreign equity norms, notably in aviation, pharmaceuticals and food processing sectors, further opening the doors for the inflow of enhanced overseas capital. The announcement was made in a statement issued by the Prime Minister's Office with an eye on creating more jobs, improving infrastructure and making the investment climate in the country more conducive for attracting foreign investment and technology. These decisions were taken at a high-level meeting here on Monday, chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Healthcare providers in India are expected to spend $1.2 billion on information technology (IT) products and services this year -- an increase of 3.4% over 2015 -- a report said on Monday.
“Healthcare spending is expected to reach $339 million in 2016, growing 5.2% over 2015,” said Moutusi Sau, principal research analyst at a global market research firm Gartner.  IT services, which includes consulting, software support, implementation, hardware, IT outsourcing (ITO) and business process outsourcing (BPO), will continue to be the largest overall spending category within the healthcare providers sector. “The BPO sub-segment will record the fastest growth rate of 15.4% over 2015. ITO will be the largest sub-segment in IT services recording a 7.5% increase in 2016 to reach $107 million in 2016,” Sau added. The S & P BSE Information Technology Index on the BSE closed at 11,549.64, up 2.00%.

The global credit rating and research arm of the Fitch Group does not see much of an impact on India's larger policy profile following the exit of Reserve Bank of Governor Raghurram Rajan from September and said the successor, though, will inherit a "solid" base. "From a rating perspective, policies are more important than personalities. In the past years, significant policy changes have been set in motion in India not in the least by governor Rajan," said Thomas Rookmaaker, Director in Fitch's Asia-Pacific Sovereigns Group. "Problems associated with both high inflation and weak bank balance sheets have been recognised, and policy makers are doing something about it -- including through the set-up of new policy frameworks," Rookmaaker said in a statement. This, he said, implied support for such policies beyond the governor in RBI and government. "The next governor seems to inherit a solid basis in this regard, providing him or her with good opportunity to continue to pursue relatively low consumer price inflation and strengthened bank balance sheets." The software market will grow 6% in 2016 to reach $106 million, up from $100 million in 2015. Infrastructure will grow 4.5% in 2016 to reach $43 million.
 The top gainers and top losers of the major indices are given in the table below:












The closing values of the major Asian indices are given in the table below:




India eases foreign equity norms for defence, aviation, retail
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Putting its economic liberalisation agenda on the fast track, India on Monday relaxed its foreign equity norms further, notably in defence, aviation, pharmaceuticals and retailing, with automatic approval rather than a case-based route as the preferred model.

In aviation, extant policy allowed up to 49% foreign equity in scheduled airlines under the automatic route. Now, while the cap has been raised to 100%, up to 49% would be under automatic and beyond that will be under the government approval routes, officials said.

Then in pharmaceuticals, both greenfield and brownfield projects could get 100% foreign capital, but with an automatic route for the former and government route for the latter. Now, brownfield projects, too, will come under automatic route for up to 74%.

In defence manufacturing, the 49% norm under automatic approval will continue. But while looking at the proposals that call for investment beyond 49%, a condition that they will bring with them access to "state-of-the-art" technology has been done away with.

"The Union Government has radically liberalized the foreign direct investment regime today, with the objective of providing major impetus to employment and job creation," an official statement said.

"The decision was taken at a high-level meeting chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. This is the second major reform after the last radical changes announced in November 2015. Now most of the sectors would be under automatic approval route, except a small negative list," it said.

"With these changes, India is now the most open economy in the world for foreign investment."

Commerce and Industry Minister Nirmala Sitharaman told reporters later that the steps taken on Monday were in line with the idea of making India a preferred destination for industry with a focus on employment. She said investments shall be encouraged so that more jobs can be created.

"We've made sure foreign equity inflows are given a clear direction with the objective of 'Make in India'. Our focus clearly is on creating jobs and ensuring that India becomes a manufacturing hub," the minister added.

Other Highlights:

- Foreign equity of 100% under government approval for trading in processed foods, including via e-commerce, in respect of products manufactured in India.

- Foreign equity of 100% under automatic route in broadcast service industry, including direct-to-home, mobile TV, head-end in the sky and cable networks.

- Equity cap on private security agencies tweaked to permit up to 49% under automatic route, as opposed to government nod, and up to 74% under government route, which was not permitted at all earlier.

- The requirement of local sourcing relaxed for three years and some sops in this regard for five years for foreign equity in single-brand retailing, for products having state-of-art and cutting edge technologies.

The decision on single brand retailing should particularly help US-based Apple which has its own stores globally but sells through other retail chains in India due to sourcing restrictions.

"Today’s amendments to the foreign direct investment policy are meant to liberalise and simplify the policy so as to provide ease of doing business in the country leading to larger inflows, contributing to growth of investment, incomes and employment," the statement said.

In the past two years the Narendra Modi Government has made major policy reforms in the area of foreign direct investment in areas such as defence, construction, insurance, pension, single-brand retailing, plantations and aviation.

As a result, official data suggests, India attracted $55.46 billion worth of foreign investment in 2015-16, against $36.04 billion during the financial year 2013-14. "This is the highest ever foreign direct investment inflow for any particular financial year," the statement said.

"However, it is felt the country has potential to attract far more foreign investment, which can be achieved by further liberalising and simplifying the foreign investment regime. India today has been rated as Number One FDI investment destination by several international agencies."


Disclaimer: Information, facts or opinions expressed in this news article are presented as sourced from IANS and do not reflect views of ML and hence ML is not responsible or liable for the same. As a source and news provider, IANS is responsible for accuracy, completeness, suitability and validity of any information in this article.
Regulations on a new tax regime, foreign portfolio investors and new bankruptcy code will transform India’s finance market
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Global credit rating agency Moody's Investors Service on Monday said the three recent regulatory changes made by India will have transformative implications for its structured finance market.

"The changes will improve returns to investors, promote foreign investment, and improve the resolution process in the event of default, thereby strengthening creditor rights," Vincent Tordo, an analyst with Moody's, was quoted as saying in a statement.

"Specifically, the measureas are a new tax regime that will lift post-tax investment returns from securitisation trusts; changes in regard to foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) that will encourage foreign investment and changes to deal structures; and a new bankruptcy code that will reinforce creditors' rights," Tordo said.

Moody's conclusions were contained in a just-released report on India's securitisation market, "New Regulations Pave Way for Market's Transformation; Improved Creditor Rights".

"Together, these three changes will help -- as indicated -- further develop India's structured finance market, and allow securitisation to play a bigger role as a source of funding in the economy, an objective promoted by the government," said Tordo.

According to Moody's, the new tax rule will increase post-tax returns from investments in pass through certificates (PTCs). The issue volume of PTCs have fallen due to lower demand from bank investors put off by current lower returns.

The participation of foreign investors through the new FPI rules will help the Indian market evolve so that it becomes more in line with global practices; for example, encouraging it to evolve away from structures with single tranches and single investors into those with multiple tranches and multiple investors.

The bankruptcy code, once implemented, will over time strengthen the legal framework of India's credit markets by significantly increasing the bargaining power of creditors against debtors in the resolution of distressed assets, Moody's said.

The code will also provide greater clarity on the insolvency process, a key aspect of the risk analysis of securitisation transactions, Moody's said.


Disclaimer: Information, facts or opinions expressed in this news article are presented as sourced from IANS and do not reflect views of ML and hence ML is not responsible or liable for the same. As a source and news provider, IANS is responsible for accuracy, completeness, suitability and validity of any information in this article.
What Brexit could mean for India
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Markets bracing for the Monday of the week of "Brexit", when Britain possibly exits from the European Union, will now, following the BSE Sensex fall of 400 points last week provoked by this possibility, now have to contend with the shock news of RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan's Saturday decision to step down when his term ends in September.

Rajan's bombshell, coming just ahead of the Brexit vote on June 23, could trigger volatility in the stock bond and currency markets.

In the letter to his colleagues on Saturday announcing that he was not seeking a second term and will return to academia when his tenure ends in September, Rajan made reference to the upcoming referendum in Britain.

"Colleagues, we have worked with the government over the last three years to create a platform of macroeconomic and institutional stability. I am sure the work we have done will enable us to ride out imminent sources of market volatility like the threat of Brexit," he said.

But the biggest risk to the key equity indices stems from Britain's possible exit from the EU. There might be far-reaching effects on global stock markets, as well as the international currencies, if Brexit materialises.

Besides, domestic investors will be concerned about the direct negative impact that some of the India-based companies and sectors that have investments and exposure to Britain will suffer.

The possible British exit will also lead to greater investments into less risky assets like gold and increase the overall outflows from the domestic equity markets.

"It is expected that the market would remain a little volatile due to the global events. Brexit is expected to heighten global volatility, thereby impacting capital flows at home," D.K. Aggarwal, Chairman and Managing Director, SMC Investments and Advisors, told IANS.

Minister of State for Finance Jayant Sinha has said the government is assessing the possible fallouts of Brexit.

Both Brexit and Rajan's decision not to seek a second term might flare up volatility in the Indian equity markets in the upcoming week.

Investors will also be concerned over an initial deficit in monsoon rains, fluctuations in rupee value and food prices.

According to market observers, come Monday, June 20, a dour mood is expected to engulf investors.

"The RBI Governor's exit news could prompt investors to recheck their bullish convictions," Anand James, Chief Market Strategist at Geojit BNP Paribas Financial Services, told IANS.

But the biggest risk to the key equity indices stems from the possible exit of Britain from the EU, with the decision subject to a referendum which will be conducted on June 23.

"India invests more in the UK than in the rest of Europe combined, emerging as the UK's third largest FDI investor. Access to European markets is therefore a key driver for Indian companies coming to the UK," said Chandrajit Banerjee, director general of Confederation of Indian Industry (CII).

"Anything that lessens this attractiveness may have a bearing on future investment decisions. It is important also to ensure continued border-free access to the rest of Europe for the many hundreds of existing Indian firms that have base in the UK," he added.

Britain ranks 12th in terms of India's bilateral trade with individual countries. It is also among just seven in 25 top countries with which India enjoys a trade surplus.

As per data with the Commerce and Industry Ministry, India's bilateral trade with Britain was worth $14.02 billion in 2015-16, out of which $8.83 billion was in exports and $5.19 was in imports. The trade balance thus was a positive $3,64 billion.

This apart, the country brief of India's Ministry of External Affairs says Britain is also the third largest investor in India after Mauritius and Singapore, with a cumulative inward flow of $22.56 billion between April 2000 and September 2015.

Likewise, India is also the third largest investor in Britain. Last year alone the value was estimated at 1.9 billion pounds (around $2.75 billion). "UK attracts more Indian investments than the rest of the EU altogether," says the brief.

A. Didar Singh, secretary general, of industry chamber Ficci has said: "We firmly believe that leaving the EU would create considerable uncertainty for Indian businesses engaged with UK and would possibly have an adverse impact on investment and movement of professionals to the UK."

Also, if Britain does leave the EU, it could lead to volatility in the pound, which would increase the risks for Indian businesses.


Disclaimer: Information, facts or opinions expressed in this news article are presented as sourced from IANS and do not reflect views of ML and hence ML is not responsible or liable for the same. As a source and news provider, IANS is responsible for accuracy, completeness, suitability and validity of any information in this article.

Saturday, 18 June 2016

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