Tuesday, 16 January 2018

Modi in Davos: First participation by an Indian PM in WEF in over 2 decades-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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16 January  2018
Prime Minister Narendra Modi (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is all set to travel to Switzerland to participate in the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos. The PM will leave for Davos on January 22 for a two-day visit. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
At the WEF summit Modi will deliver the keynote address at the plenary session on January 23. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
This will be the first participation by an Indian prime minister in the WEF in over two decades. In 1997, the then prime minister H D Deve Gowda had attended the Davos Summit. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
To be attended by over 3,000 global leaders, including CEOs, heads of state and government, artists and civil society members, the Davos Annual Meeting of WEF will conclude on January 26. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
This is the first time India will host the welcome reception at the summit.
The Indian presence is set to be the largest-ever with as many as six Union ministers, two chief ministers, several top government officials and over 100 CEOs, figuring among the registered participants.
PM Modi is expected to showcase the government's latest reform push that includes the historic roll out of Goods and Services Tax (GST), Make in India, Skill India, Invest india to attract investors.
The WEF, which describes itself as an international organisation for public-private cooperation and was established in 1971 as a not-for-profit foundation, hosts its annual meeting in Davos every year in January.
Presidents of 60 countries and over 350 international leaders will participate in the forum. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
The registered participants from India, include Finance Minister Arun Jaitley, Railways Minister Piyush Goyal, Commerce Minister Suresh Prabhu, Oil Minister Dharmendra Pradhan, Minister of State for External Affairs M J Akbar and Minister of State (Independent Charge) for Development of North Eastern Region of India Jitendra Singh. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
Modi is also expected to meet Swiss President Alain Berset and hold extensive talks on bilateral, regional and international issues. Both are also expected to discuss ways to deepen bilateral cooperation.

The Indian counterpart is expected to hold bilateral talks with representatives of  11 countries while the Modi cabinet is likely to address 25 sessions at the session.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Ramdev's Patanjali makes big online push, ties up with Flipkart, Amazon & others-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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16 January  2018
Patanjali Ayurved (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

Baba Ramdev-led Patanjali Ayurved on Tuesday announced partnership with several leading e-tailers and aggregators to give a big push to online sales of its swadeshi range of FMCG products. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
Patanjali Ayurved has announced tie-up with online websites including- PayTM Mall, Big Basket, Flipkart, Grofers, Amazon, netmeds, 1mg and Shopclues through which its range of products will be available on various online platforms.
At a function in New Delhi, founder Ramdev said that Patanjali's online venture is capable of catering up to 10 lakh crore products daily. These partnerships with e-tailers will be in addition to its own portal patanjaliayurved.net, where the company is selling its products online.
Ramdev further added that the company has a target production capacity of Rs 1 lakh crore by next year. Around Rs 50,000 crore production capacity will be started this year, he said. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
"Online mechanism aims to provide convenient and efficient option along with extension of traditional retail market," Ramdev said while announcing the partnerships. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
Some of Patanajali's products are already available on several online platforms through various other sellers but this would allow the Haridwar-based firm to systematically place its range of products.
Recently, Patanjali had forayed into kids and adult diapers and affordable sanitary napkins segments. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Last month, it had also announced to venturing into solar equipment manufacturing. Besides FMCG (fast-moving consumer goods) segment, Patanjali Ayurved is present in other sectors such as education and healthcare. In 2016-17, it had crossed a turnover of Rs 10,500 crore and aims a two-fold growth this fiscal.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

UK Inflation Dips For First Time Since June-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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16 January  2018
The inflation rate(The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

The inflation rate in Britain dipped in December for the first time in six months, partly due to a fall in the price of games and toys in the run-up to Christmas, official figures showed Tuesday. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The Office for National Statistics said the annual rate of consumer price inflation fell to 3 percent in December from 3.1 percent the previous month. Another factor behind the decline was that airfares rose by less than they had in the same period the year before. Inflation would have fallen by more had it not been for higher tobacco prices, partly linked to tax increases.

Inflation in Britain spiked sharply higher after the country voted to leave the European Union in June 2016, a decision that saw the pound tank. That stoked inflation by raising the cost of imported goods such as food and oil. Inflation rose so much that the Bank of England decided in November to raise its main interest rate for the first time in a decade even though uncertainties around Brexit have slowed the wider economy. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

"Inflation has been running at roughly the same rate since last spring following significant increases, partly due to the weaker pound after the European referendum," said James Tucker, the statistics agency's senior statistician. "It remains too early to say whether today's slight fall is the start of any longer-term reduction in the rate of inflation." The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

However, with the impact of the pound's drop falling out of the annual data, many economists expect a steady decline in inflation this year toward the Bank of England's target of 2 percent. Also likely to weigh on inflation is the quarter-point interest rate hike to 0.5 percent, which should slightly raise the cost of borrowing to consumers, as well as tepid economic growth. From being the fastest-growing economy among the Group of Seven industrial nations, Britain is now one of the slowest, with much of the growth reliant on a booming European economy.
"Given the continued headwind posed by Brexit uncertainty, I don't see why the Bank of England would rush to raise rates again this year," said Ben Brettell, senior economist at stockbrokers Hargreaves Lansdown.


Britain is due to leave the EU in March 2019 and the government is hoping to wrap up a wide-ranging post-Brexit trade deal with the EU by the fall to allow parliaments across the region to be able to give their backing. The British government hopes it will be able to agree on a transition period with the EU by the end of the first quarter this year, which will give businesses the ability to plan ahead.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Global Stocks Advance As Investors Look Ahead To US Earnings-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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16 January  2018
china financial markets (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

Global stocks were mostly higher Tuesday following a holiday for U.S. markets as investors looked ahead to American corporate earnings.

KEEPING SCORE: Germany's DAX gained 0.9 percent to 13,323 and France's CAC 40 added 0.2 percent to 5,521. London's FTSE 100, however, shed 0.2 percent to 7,756. On Wall Street, futures for the Dow Jones industrial average and Standard & Poor's 500 index were up 0.8 percent and 0.4 percent, respectively.

EARNINGS OUTLOOK: Investors are watching for the impact of Washington's latest tax changes on U.S. companies as earnings season for the final quarter of 2017 gets into full swing. Many multinational corporations are taking a one-off charge for bringing home money held abroad. But investors expect them to benefit in the long run from the decision to cut the standard tax rate from 35 percent to 21 percent and are bidding up their share prices.

ANALYST'S TAKE: "Market focus will soon shift to the corporate earnings season, which serves as a quarterly test to a market full of complacency sentiment," Margaret Yang of CMC Markets said in a commentary. "Major markets including the U.S., EU, Japan and China have seen four to five consecutive quarter of earnings improvement, and this is likely to continue as global cyclical upswing is gaining momentum." The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

ASIA'S DAY: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.8 percent to 3,436.59 and Tokyo's Nikkei 225 added 1 percent to 23,951.81. Hong Kong's Hang Seng jumped 1.8 percent to 31,904.75 and Seoul's Kospi advanced 0.7 percent to 2,521.74. India's Sensex was unchanged at 34,945.17 while markets in New Zealand, Taiwan and Southeast Asia gained. Sydney's S&P-ASX 200 shed 0.5 percent to 6,048.60.

ENERGY: Benchmark U.S. crude slipped 29 cents to $64.01 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract advanced 50 cents on Monday. Brent crude, used to price international oils, shed 76 cents to $69.50 in London, having gained 39 cents the previous session.


CURRENCY: The dollar edged up after days of heavy losses. It was up to 110.72 yen from 110.51 yen the day before. The euro slipped to $1.2233 from $1.2266.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Monday, 15 January 2018

Nifty, Sensex on a Strong Uptrend – Monday closing report -The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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15 January  2018

I had mentioned in Friday’s closing report that Nifty, Sensex were trending higher. The major indices of the Indian stock markets rallied on Monday and closed with gains over Friday’s close. On the NSE, there were 857 advances, 863 declines and 259 unchanged. The trends of the major indices in the course of Monday’s trading are given in the table below:
 
Major Indices (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)
Aided by good positive macro-economic data and encouraging corporate earnings, the key Indian equity indices on Monday afternoon were trading higher, after touching record highs in the early morning session. Benchmark indices hit another life time highs, following Asian shares that hit historic highs on Monday after Wall Street extended its record-breaking run, while the US dollar retreat continued, as investors priced in the risk of tighter policies elsewhere in the developed world, also good positive macro-economic data and encouraging corporate earnings, pointed out market analysts. India's annual rate of inflation based on wholesale prices eased to 3.58% in December, official data showed on Monday. 

IDFC Bank on Saturday announced its merger with non-banking financial company Capital First. "The Board of Directors of IDFC Bank Ltd... have considered and approved a composite scheme of amalgamation of Capital First Ltd, Capital First Home Finance Ltd and Capital First Securities Ltd..." IDFC Bank informed the BSE in a regulatory filing. The regulatory filing said the board has appointed Bipin Gemani as the interim Chief Financial Officer and key Managerial Personnel of the bank with effect from January 13. IDFC Bank shares closed at Rs64.25, down 5.03% on the BSE.

India's job market grew 10% in December 2017 compared to the corresponding month in 2016, a report by Naukri.com said here on Monday. "The job market continues to sustain the momentum gained in November. The (Naukri.com) JobSpeak Index has witnessed a 10% y-o-y (year-on-year) growth in December. Non-IT (information technology) sectors like industrial products, construction, engineering, auto and BFSI (banking, financial services and insurance) have led the growth for the past few months," said V. Suresh, Chief Sales Officer, Naukri.com.  He, however, added: "We could expect the job market to be volatile for the next few more months before it heads north again." Jobs in construction and engineering sector saw a growth of 31% and insurance sector witnessed a growth of 21%. Jobs in banking and financial services grew by 4% in December. In the same period jobs in BPO went up by 8% while that in the IT and software services recorded a y-o-y growth of 2%. Key industries like, production and maintenance, auto saw a growth of 42% and 31% respectively in December 2017 when compared with December 2017, the report said. These developments are likely to lead to a long term bullish trend in the Indian stock markets.

The World Economic Forum (WEF) on Sunday ranked India at the 30th position on a global manufacturing index, five places below China, but higher than the other BRICS members Brazil, Russia and South Africa. Releasing its Global Manufacturing Index here on Sunday, WEF said Japan topped the rankings in its "Readiness for the future of production report" on the basis of developing the best structure of production. Regarding India, which had a total manufacturing value of over $420 billion in 2016, the report said that its manufacturing sector has grown by over 7% per annum on average in the past three decades and accounts for 16%-20% of India's GDP. "Home to the second-largest population in the world and one of the fastest growing economies, the demand for Indian manufactured products is rising. India has room for improvement across the drivers of production, except for demand environment where it ranks in the top 5," the WEF said. This is also likely to lead to a long term bullish trend in the Indian stock markets.

BSE's India International Exchange (India Inx) said it has listed Indian Railways Finance Corporation's (IRFC) first green bond on its global securities market. According to India Inx, the 10 year $500 million worth bonds issued by IRFC "are one of the highest credit rated bonds issued by an Indian corporate".  "India INX listed the first bond on its global securities market with Minister of Railways and Coal Piyush Goyal ringing the gong," the international stock exchange said in a statement. "Our IRFC green bond is a commitment to sustainable development and we look forward to serving the financial needs of India's rail transport infrastructure and would be in a position to raise more funds as and when required," said S.K. Pattanayak, Managing Director, IRFC. BSE's India Inx, which was inaugurated on January 9, 2017, is the country's first capital raising platform for international investors in any currency.

The top gainers and top losers of the major indices are given in the table below:
 
Top Gainer (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

The closing values of the major Asian indices are given in the table below: The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
Asian Indices (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

India's wholesale price inflation eases to 3.58% in December-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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15 January  2018
 
WPI (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)
India's annual rate of inflation based on wholesale prices eased to 3.58 per cent in December, official data showed on Monday.

According to data from the Ministry of Commerce and Industry, the wholesale price index (WPI), with the revised base year of 2011-12, was 3.93 per cent in November.

However, the WPI-based inflation rate was higher than 2.10 per cent reported for the corresponding month of the previous year.

"Build up inflation rate in the financial year so far was 2.21 per cent compared to a build up rate of 3.71 per cent in the corresponding period of the previous year," the ministry said in a statement.

On a sequential basis, the expenses on primary articles, which constitute 22.62 per cent of the WPI's total weightage, edged higher by 3.86 per cent, from an increase of 5.28 per cent in November.

The prices of food articles rose by 4.72 per cent from an acceleration of 6.06 per cent in the previous corresponding month.

On a year-on-year (YoY) basis, food prices in December rose by 4.72 per cent from a rise of only 0.07 per cent.

In terms of individual items, onion prices soared higher by 197.05 per cent, whereas for potatoes it plunged by (-)8.40 per cent.

In contrast, the overall vegetable prices in November rose by 56.46 per cent, against a fall of (-)26.88 per cent in the same month a year ago.

As per data, wheat became cheaper by (-) 8.47 per cent on YoY basis and the prices of pulses came down by (-) 34.60 per cent, but paddy became dearer by 3.19 per cent.

On the other hand, protein-based food items such as eggs, meat and fish became expensive by 1.67 per cent during the month.

Prices of the other major group under the WPI, manufactured products, which comprise nearly 64.23 per cent of the index, recorded a 2.61 per cent rise.

The sub-category of manufactured food products registered a decline of (-) 0.23 per cent.

Fuel and power prices accelerated by 9.16 per cent.


Product-wise, the price of high-speed diesel rose by 12.68 per cent during December while that of petrol climbed by 8.80 per cent and for LPG by 21.14 per cent.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Small ticket affordable housing loans at higher risk of turning bad: RBI-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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15 January  2018
 
Housing (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)
Government’s affordable housing push has led to a sharp rise in disbursement of home loans up to Rs2 lakh, but this segment has led to higher delinquencies, according to a RBI report on ‘Affordable Housing in India’.

 The report also states that the percentage of non-performing assets for housing loans up to Rs2 lakh, granted by public sector banks and housing finance companies, stood at 10.4% in 2016-17. A year ago, bad loans in this segment stood at 9.8%. Delinquencies in this segment are the highest among home  loan slabs and also well above the average for the home loan market. NPAs were the lowest in the housing loan slab of over Rs25 lakh, at 0.9%, as per the report.

This may deteriorate the asset quality of PSU banks, which has seen higher disbursement in affordable housing in last one year for lower ticket size loans. In addition, housing finance companies like LIC housing finance, GIC housing finance may also witness asset quality pressure, due to their focus on lower ticket size loans. Companies like HDFC and DHFL to have minimal impact on their asset quality due to their focus on follow up and recoveries and stringent risk management. In addition, HDFC’s exposure towards higher ticket size loans to insulate it from asset quality pressure in affordable housing.

Data in the RBI report notes that the number of units completed under the Pradhan Mantri Aawaas Yojana-Urban scheme have jumped from 92,000 in April 2017 to over 2.88 lakh in December 2017. This, in turn, has pushed growth in home loan disbursements. While demand for lower ticket housing loans has picked up, lenders may need to watch out for fresh delinquencies, cautioned the RBI.

With the sharp rise in loan disbursements and number of beneficiaries in the affordable housing segment, non-performing asset (NPA) ratios of PSBs and HFCs have increased moderately in 2016-17, the report said
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Back to back increase in EFC, coal price and railway freight rates to hit secondary steel producers: ICRA -The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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15 January  2018
Coal (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

Effective January 9, 2018, Coal India Limited (CIL) has increased the prices of thermal coal. This increase for domestic coal consumers comes on the back of an additional levy towards ‘Evacuation Facility Charges’ (EFC) of Rs50 per metric tonne (MT), which started from December 20, 2017. Moreover, the Indian Railways has increased effective freight rates for coal and coke by around 4% (for all distance slabs) with effect from January 15.

According to an ICRA report, the recent hike in coal price and railway freight rate hikes, following the earlier levy of EFC, is expected to increase the cost of steel production by Rs150-500/MT for a secondary steel producer using sponge iron and induction/electric arc furnaces for steelmaking, and defendant on domestic coal. The quantum of increase would however depend on the specific grades of coal used by the steelmaker.

Jayanta Roy, Senior Vice President and Group Head-Corporate Ratings, ICRA said, “The cumulative effect of this recent increase in raw material and freight costs would negatively impact the operating margins for secondary steel producers by 45-145 basis points at current price levels, unless such mills are able to pass-on this cost increase to consumers”.

As for impact of increase in coal prices, ICRA says the quantum of cost increase for a secondary steel producer would depend on the grade of coal used in the sponge iron kiln and captive power plant. This is due to the fact that the level of coal price increase implemented by CIL for the non-regulated sector is uneven across various grades. For the higher calorific value G7–G9 grades, which are typically used in the sponge iron kiln, the price increase (including duties and taxes) ranges from Rs58/MT for the G9 grade, to Rs468/MT for the G7 grade. For the lower calorific value G10–G12 grades, which are typically used in captive power generation, the price increase ranges from Rs58/MT for the G10 grade, to Rs210/MT for the G11 grade.

Further steel players are also expected to experience an increase in inward freight costs on account of the revision in freight rates by the Indian Railways for movement of coal and coke, the effective rate of increase has been around 4% over the prevailing rates across various distance slabs.

As per the ICRA report, the minimum cost increase following the coal price/freight rate hikes and levy of EFC comes to around Rs150/MT of crude steel (when using a combination of G9 grade in the sponge iron kiln and G10 grade in the captive power plant), and the maximum cost increase comes to around Rs500/MT (when using a combination of G7 grade in the sponge iron kiln and G11 grade in the captive power plant). Unless secondary players are able to pass-on this cost increase through steel price hikes, operating margins for such mills are expected to decline between 45-145 basis points at current price levels.

“Steel players having a fuel supply agreement or dependent on e-auction/linkage auction will get directly impacted by the recent coal price and freight rate hikes. However, for players sourcing higher grade imported coal for sponge iron kiln, and using domestic coal for captive power plant, the impact would be lower at around Rs50-80/MT of crude steel production (margin impact of 15-25 basis points at current price levels), Mr. Roy added”.
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Dollar Fall Weighs On Global Stocks; US Shut For Holiday-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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15 January  2018
Japan financial markets (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

Global stock markets were mostly lower on Monday as the dollar weakened across the board, pinching the outlook for export-driven regions like Europe. The U.S. was due to remain closed for a holiday.

KEEPING SCORE: Britain's FTSE 100 shed 0.1 percent to 7,771 while Germany's DAX fell 0.3 percent to 13,201. France's CAC 40 dropped 0.1 percent to 5,510. U.S. markets were due to remain closed for a holiday.

DOLLAR: The dollar fell in value against most currencies, extending losses this year. Some economists attribute it to optimism about economic growth in regions like Europe and Japan, where central banks are getting closer to easing off their bond-buying stimulus programs, which have weighed on their currencies in the past. A stronger euro and yen, in turn, tends to weigh on many stocks in Europe and Japan, which are export-focused economies.

The dollar slipped to 110.65 Japanese yen from 111.04 yen the previous trading day. The euro strengthened to $1.2271 from $1.2199.

ASIA'S DAY: Asian markets except China mostly finished with modest gains. Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 0.3 percent to 23,714.88 and South Korea's Kospi added 0.3 percent to 2,503.73. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index dipped 0.2 percent to to 31,338.87 and China's Shanghai Composite Index slipped 0.5 percent to 3,410.49. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 inched up 0.1 percent to 6,077.10. Stocks in Taiwan and Southeast Asia were moderately higher.

CHINA RISK: Shares slipped in Shanghai and Shenzhen after the China Banking Regulatory Commission issued a notice over the weekend calling for stricter oversight over financial risks. The notice took aim at preventing banks from shifting funds into stocks, property investments, local government financing vehicles and industries that violate national policies on pollution or excess capacity, among other areas of concern.


OIL: Benchmark U.S. crude lost 5 cents to $64.25 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract rose 50 cents the previous session. Brent crude, the international standard, fell 17 cents to $69.70 per barrel.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions