Thursday, 8 September 2016

Opposition wants railway fare hike rolled back -The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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8 September 2016

Opposition parties -- the Congress, the AAP and CPI-M -- on Thursday slammed the surge pricing in railway fares on premium trains and demanded its rollback. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The Congress termed the government decision as "Tughlaqi farmaan" and the Communist Party of India-Marxist said it showed the government's "pro-rich bias". The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal also denounced the hike in railway fares on Durunto, Shatabdi and Rajdhani trains. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The government on Wednesday announced what it termed as "flexi fares", under which the base fares of the Durunto, Shatabdi and Rajdhani trains will go up by 10 per cent with every 10 per cent of berths sold, subject to a prescribed ceiling limit. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

"Battling rising price of essential commodities and runaway food inflation, the decision by the Modi government to impose 'surge pricing' through 'flexi fare system' in Rajdhani, Duranto and Shatabdi trains is a rude shock for the ordinary people," Congress leader Randeep Surjewala said. 

He said the surge pricing was "an underhand tool to collect Rs 1,000 crore annually by burning pockets of honest middle class families" who still see the railways as the only cost effective option of long distance travel. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Surjewala said the decision to implement surge pricing from September 9, ahead of the festival season of Dussehra, Diwali, Chhat Puja, Onam and Eid-ul-Azha, proves the "anti-people mindset" of the Modi government. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The CPI-M pointed out that the scheme excludes the highest class of travel, that is, AC I and Executive Chair, "reflecting the pro-rich bias of the government".

"This demand-driven scheme is a mask to cover a sharp hike in fares for 90 per cent of the passengers," the Left party said, as it "cautioned" that this could be a prelude to similar hike in other trains as well.

Kejriwal, who travelled by Shatabdi Express train to Ludhiana on Thursday, tweeted: "I am in Shatabdi right now. Spoke to several people. Everyone is against the Modi government's surge pricing.


"AAP strongly opposes surge pricing in railways and demands that it should be rolled back," he added. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Passenger car sales up 10% in August: SIAM -The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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8 September 2016

Passenger cars sales increased by 9.53% in August to 177,829 units from 162,360 units sold during the corresponding month of last year, industry data showed on Thursday.

The utility vehicles' (UVs) off-take zoomed in the month under review by 47.38 per cent to 65,745 units, while van sales were up 2.52% to 15,148 units. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

According to Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM), the total passenger vehicle sales, which includes cars, utility vehicles and vans, accelerated by 16.68% to 258,722 units last month.

Industry data for August revealed that sales of overall commercial vehicles inched up by 1.53%. The segment is a key indicator of economic activity. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The commercial vehicles segment's off-take for August 2016 stood at 52,996 units.

Three-wheelers sales, logged a healthy growth of 9.01% to 50,193 units last month.

Overall, sales of two-wheelers, which include scooters, motorcycles and mopeds, grew exponentially. The segment's sales rose by 26.32 per cent to 1,648,883 units.

Product-wise, scooter sales in the month under review grew by 32.92% to 567,782 units, whereas the motorcycle sub-segment sales, logged a growth of 22.19% to 1,005,666 units.

Besides, mopeds' off-take zoomed by 36.83% to 75,435 units.

However, overall exports across categories declined by 14.52% to 309,215 units which were shipped out during last month. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Total automobile sales in August were higher by 23.72% to 2,010,794 units.

According to Abdul Majeed, Partner-Price Waterhouse and an auto expert, OEMs (original equipment manufacturers) sales to dealers increased significantly to cater to consumer demand for passenger vehicles and two wheelers in the upcoming festival seasons over the next three months. 


"This is backed by many positive factors such as good monsoon, overall positive customer sentiment, better cash flows in the hand of the consumers and some new launches at attractive prices by few OEMs," Majeed said.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Why inflation is headed below 4%-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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8 September 2016
S.B.I (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions) 

The inflation based on Consumer Price Index (CPI) would fall below 4% in December 2016 and at least four-five readings in FY2017 would be sub 4.5%, says a report.

In the Ecowrap research note, State Bank of India (SBI), says, there are several reasons for the decline in inflation trajectory. "First, pulse prices are on a declining trajectory, and from historical data it can be inferred that there is a clear downside of at least 60 basis points to headline CPI numbers over the medium term as pulse prices start to mean revert. This alone will pull down CPI to sub-4.5%. Second, the distribution of core CPI over the last 20 months indicates a nicely shaped Bell curve, with mean CPI at 4.5%," it added. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
 
CPI Inflation (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions) 

Another point is steps announced in the Budget to increase agricultural productivity through better irrigation, insurance and other mechanisms. The Ecowrap feels that this could drive down food prices structurally over the long run. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

"In this context," the report says, "we recently did a study to understand the dynamics of behaviour of inter-sectoral prices in case of India. Our results showed that agricultural prices and manufacturing prices are now being determined by separate forces, while the first is guided by minimum support prices the second is primarily driven by changes in productivity and wage structure in India. For example, our research showed that labour productivity, estimated as the per capita manufacturing real GDP at constant prices, is exhibiting upward trend and sharp changes has taken place in labour productivity since late 1990’s."

Because of this productivity increase, manufacturing WPI had declined from a high of 12.3% in FY1995 to as low as 2.4% in FY2006. In fact, manufacturing prices consistently used to be lower in 2000 and the average manufacturing was less than 4% in those years, just before the crisis. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Lastly, the projection of ‘above-normal’ monsoon for the current year will boost agricultural production in the country, which will subsequently impact the food inflation in downward direction, SBI Ecowrap says. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions 
According to the report, one interesting fact that will also emerge in the coming months is that the wholesale price index (WPI) will be greater than CPI. This has happened previously during entire 2011, except in September that year, when WPI was greater than CPI by average 60 bps.  However, it says, this time the difference will be not so significant and though WPI will be greater than CPI, both will possibly move in tandem, sans any global volatility. This is eminently good news given the fact that India recently adopted an inflation targeting framework, the report says. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

"Simultaneously, history will repeat with India forecast to post a high current account surplus 0.6% of GDP in first quarter of FY17, the first time after 2004. The only thing that now needs to happen is a pickup in investment! Hopefully this may happen in second quarter of FY17," the SBI Ecowrap concluded.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Nifty, Sensex still in a short-term uptrend – Thursday closing report-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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8 September 2016
I had mentioned in Wednesday’s closing report that Nifty, Sensex were still bullish. The major indices of the Indian stock markets made a minor rally on Thursday and closed with small gains of a little less than 0.50% over Wednesday’s close. The trends of the major indices in the course of Thursday’s gains are given in the table below: The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
 
Major Indices (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

Healthy quarterly results, consistent buying by foreign funds and a rise in global crude oil prices buoyed the Indian equity markets on Thursday. The key indices closed the day's trade in the green as healthy buying was witnessed in stocks of healthcare, automobile and consumer durables. However, gains were capped due to profit booking at higher levels and caution ahead of a key global financial event. The BSE market breadth was tilted in favour of the bulls -- with 1,608 advances and 1,151 declines. On the NSE, on Thursday, there were 905 advances, 552 declines and 68 unchanged. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

ICICI Bank on Thursday became the first bank in India to deploy ‘software robots that emulate human action, in its over 200 business processes thereby reducing the response time to customers by up to 60%. "The bank is the first in the country and among few, globally, to deploy ‘software robotics' that emulates human actions to automate and perform repetitive, high volume and time consuming business tasks cutting across multiple applications," ICICI Bank said. "We have re-engineered over 200 business processes which are powered by software robots across various functions of the bank. We plan to more than double the software robots to over 500 by end of this fiscal," Chanda Kochhar, MD and CEO, ICICI Bank, said. This initiative marks a milestone in the banking innovation in the Indian banking industry as it joins a select group of overseas organisations which have deployed this unique state-of-the-art robotic technology in such a large way, Kochhar said. The innovation is likely to increase the lead of hi-tech private banks over public sector banks. The Bank Nifty rose 0.05% in Thursday’s trading.

US stocks closed mixed with the Nasdaq Composite Index refreshing previous day's closing record, as Wall Street digested the Federal Reserve's Beige Book. The Dow Jones Industrial Average on Wednesday fell 11.98 points, or 0.06%, to 18,526.14. The S&P 500 edged down 0.33 point, or 0.02%, to 2,186.15. The Nasdaq increased 8.02 points, or 0.15%, to 5,283.93. According to the Beige Book released in the afternoon, reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts suggest that national economic activity continued to expand at a modest pace on balance during the reporting period of July through late August. "Labour market conditions remained tight in most districts, with moderate payroll growth noted in general. Price increases remained slight overall," said the Beige Book. The Fed has been in focus recently, with investors pondering over when the US central bank will decide to raise interest rates. The Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed's monetary policy arm, is set to meet on September 20-21. On the economic front, the number of job openings increased to 5.9 million on the last business day of July, the US Labour Department reported on Wednesday.

State-run gas utility GAIL India (GAIL) on Wednesday posted 244 per cent jump in its net profit for the first quarter which ended in June at Rs 1,335 crore on the back of a turnaround in its petrochemical business and the stake sale in Mahanagar Gas. The company's net profit in the April-June quarter of 2015 was at Rs 388 crore, it said in a statement.  "GAIL's PAT excluding gain from stake sale in Mahanagar Gas Ltd is Rs 846 crore, signifying an increase by 118%," it said. Moreover, during the quarter, production and sales of GAIL's petrochemical business jumped 149% and 121% respectively, resulting in a revenue increase of 95% to Rs 1,133 crore. The profit in this segment stood at Rs 9 crore as against a loss of Rs 397 crore in the corresponding period of last year. Gail India shares closed at Rs388.90, down 1.92% on the BSE.

State-run explorer Oil and Natural Gas Corp (ONGC) on Wednesday posted a 21.14 per cent fall in net profit for the first quarter ended June at Rs 4,232 crore, as compared to Rs 5,386 crore in the same quarter a year ago caused by lower crude prices. The company's gross revenue for the quarter in consideration also fell by a similar 21.4% to Rs 17,784 crore, as compared to Rs 22,628 crore in the first quarter of the last fiscal. Operating income or EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) during the quarter in question also fell, coming in at Rs 8,484 crore, as against Rs 10,636 crore in the same quarter last year. The shares of the company closed at Rs246.25, up 0.47% on the BSE. Among the index stocks, TCS fell sharply after it announced that business outlook of some of its major customers was muted. There was all-round buying of pharma stocks. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The top gainers and top losers of the major indices are given in the table below:

Top Gainer (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)
The closing values of the major Asian indices are given in the table below:The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
Asian Indices (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

Wednesday, 7 September 2016

Nifty, Sensex still bullish – Wednesday closing report-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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7Th September 2016

I had mentioned in Tuesday’s closing report that Nifty, Sensex were in a strong upward momentum. The major indices of the Indian stock markets were range-bound on Wednesday and closed with small losses over Tuesday’s close. The trends of the major indices in the course of Wednesday’s trading are given in the table below: The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


Profit booking subdued the Indian equity markets on Wednesday, as the key indices closed the day's trade on a flat note. Selling pressure was witnessed in consumer durables, oil and gas, and finance stocks. The BSE market breadth was tilted in favour of the bulls -- with 1,404 advances and 1,356 declines. On the NSE, there were 801 advances, 807 declines and 68 unchanged.
State-run power equipment manufacturer Bharat Heavy Electricals (BHEL) on Wednesday reported a rise of 54.21% in its standalone net profit for the first quarter of 2016-17. The company's Q1 net profit stood at Rs77.77 crore from Rs50.43 crore reported in the corresponding quarter of 2015-16. The company posted a net profit after three consecutive quarters of losses. BHEL’s total income from operations for the quarter under review increased by 28.72% to Rs5,622.46 crore from Rs4,367.70 crore for the corresponding period of last fiscal. Its net sales edged up by 29.03% to Rs5,522.76 crore from Rs4,280.02 crore during the first quarter of 2015-16. According to the company, it has an outstanding order book position of Rs108,000 crore at the end of Q1 2016-17. The company’s shares closed at Rs159.80, up 15.50% on the BSE. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Global software major Wipro Ltd on Wednesday announced bagging a three-year IT contract from Norway's largest transportation firm NSB Group. "As part of the deal, we will implement NSB's boundary-less data centre and Live workspace solutions and utilise its next-generation delivery framework ServiceNXT to deliver services, which will help variablise their IT operations," said the city-based IT outsourcing major in a statement. The Oslo-based NSB operates rail and bus services and carries freight by rail and maintains trains. "As the proposed state reforms in the Norwegian railway are expected to provide a fillip to its efficiency, our backbone of IT infrastructure services will enable NSB to achieve greater flexibility, scalability, cost efficiency and offer an enhanced end-user experience," asserted the statement. The reforms will also help NSB become future-ready and competitive, in keeping with the spirit of the reforms. "Our partnership and engagement with NSB will have a positive impact on the Nordic transportation sector and the customer experience of its passengers," said Srini Pallia, Wipro's consumer business president. Wipro shares closed at Rs482.15, down 0.13% on the BSE.

The State Bank of India (SBI) may relocate some branches after the merger of its associate banks into its fold, but none of them will be shut down, Chairperson Arundhati Bhattacharya has said in a bid to put rumours to rest and assuage the staff. "I don't believe we will be closing down any branches. This is one area that is getting a lot of adverse publicity. We will be working with the synergies," Bhattacharya told IANS, referring to the plans to merge five associates and Bharatiya Mahila Bank. "Obviously, if the same building has branches of three associate banks, it doesn't make sense to keep them open. If that branch is moved away 60 km, it will have a better reach. We will be relocating a few of them," the Chairperson told IANS over the phone. The merged entity, which will have a network of more than 24,000 branches, will continue to have the same number of branches. The idea is to leverage the synergies, she added. "Not only the productivity can improve, with the same number of people, we can also ensure better footprints. We can move apart branches, send out sales teams. The customer will also have access to a lot of cutting-edge products," she said. The country's largest lender is looking to add $120 billion (Rs8 lakh crore) in assets after the merger of State Bank of Bikaner and Jaipur, State bank of Travancore, State Bank of Patiala, State Bank of Hyderabad and State Bank of Maharashtra, besides the Bharatiya Mahila Bank. SBI’s shares closed at Rs266.55, up 2.74% on the BSE.

The top gainers and top losers of the major indices are given in the table below:




The closing values of the major Asian indices are given in the table below:The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Why the new RBI guidelines for sale of stressed assets are unrealistic -The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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7Th September 2016
RBI (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions) 

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on 1 September 2016 issued Guidelines on Sale of Stressed Assets by banks. The Guidelines are an attempt to improve the framework for sale of stressed accounts by banks. The essence of the Guidelines is urging banks to create mechanism for timely identification of stressed accounts and take appropriate actions to ensure there is low vintage and better price realisation for banks.

The guidelines view the world with rose-tinted glasses. Currently the non-performing asset (NPA) levels in the financial system are extremely high and are causing sleepless nights to the Boards of banks and financial institutions. In such times where there is a dire need for quick resolution, the Guidelines are optimistic about finding takers for bad assets and creating dynamic market for the same outside of ARCs as well. While this is the core area for ARCs and special situation funds (which the guidelines do not make a mention of at all), there may be very little or no motivation for other non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) or banks to acquire bad loans.

The Guidelines also seem to suggest that the sale of junk should be undertaken by an open auction process, which will result in price discovery. The existing Framework for Revitalising Distressed Assets in the Economy as applicable to banks and issued on 26 February 2014 mentioned that there were practically challenges in sale of assets through auction process. The bidding process is quite costly and the due diligence takes long. The framework urged for creating transparency in the auction process and required prescription of sufficient disclosures for seamless auction process. Unfortunately, none of these issues from the 2014 Framework are addressed in the new Guidelines. We highlight the prescriptions of the recently issued Guidelines in this article. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Process of identification of stressed assets 

The Guidelines mandate the banks to do the following:

1. Early identify stressed assets and special mention accounts and make them available for sale.
 
2. Identify and list internally, once a year (preferably at the beginning of the year), specific financial assets available for sale to other institutions.
 
3. Doubtful assets above a threshold should be identified and reviewed by the board or its committee to make them available for sale.
 
4. The sale should be undertaken through e-auction process, so as to attract wide variety of buyers and enable larger participation from prospective buyers.
 
5. At the time of sale, specifications should be provided for acceptance of internal or external valuations. In case of exposure beyond Rs50 crores, take 2 external valuation reports.
 
6. Banks should provide adequate time for due diligence with a floor of 2 weeks’ time.
 
7. Cost of valuation to be borne by banks

Eligible buyers of banks’ junk

Banks can sell the stressed assets to:

a. Asset reconstruction companies; 
b. Other banks; 
c. Non-banking financial companies; 
d. Financial institutions.

Preference will be given to asset reconstruction companies as buyers. 

Swiss Challenge Method

This is the prime focus of the Guidelines. As in case of government tenders and bidding, Swiss Challenge Method is envisaged to be introduced for sale of stressed assets as well. The mechanism is as follows:

1. Prospective buyer gives a bid to the bank for acquisition of assets;

2. Where a prospective buyer offers more than the minimum percentage specified in the bank’s policy in the form of cash, the bank shall be required to publicly call for counter bids from other prospective buyers, on comparable terms; 

3. Once bids are received, the bank shall first invite the securitisation companies (SCs) and reconstruction companies (RCs), if any, which has already acquired highest significant stake to match the highest bid. Asset Reconstruction Companies (ARCs) acquiring majority stake and bidding highest will be given a right of first refusal for acquiring the assets 

4. The order of preference to sell the asset shall be as follows:
 
a. The SC or RC, which has already acquired highest significant stake;
b. The original bidder and 
c. The highest bidder during the counter bidding process.
 
5. In any event, preference will be given to asset reconstruction companies to acquire the assets
 
6. Bank may sell to the winning bidder otherwise make provision which would be higher of the two:
 
a. The discount on the book value quoted by the highest bidder; and
b. The provisioning required as per extant asset classification and provisioning norms

Investment in security receipts (SRs)

Banks typically sell the stressed assets to the ARCs and then hold them in the form of security receipts. This is a way of creating a façade whereby the banks continuing to hold the bad assets as investment. The guidelines state that where banks continue to hold 50% or more of security receipts with the underlying of the assets it sold to the ARCs, then higher of the below mentioned provisioning norms shall apply
 
a. Provisioning rate required in terms of net asset value declared by ARCs
b. Provisioning rates as applicable to banks

The above provisions will become applicable from 1 April 2017. The threshold of 50% investment in SRs will be reduced to 10% from 1 April 2018. 

In addition, banks will be required to do disclosure of SRs acquired and the disclosure goes 8 years backward. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Buy-back of refurbished junk

The Guidelines state that the Banks should have a board approved policy to buy-back financial assets from asset reconstruction companies once the asset has become standard after successful implementation of the restructuring program by the ARCs and after satisfactory performance of the asset during the specified period. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

However, banks cannot buy-back the assets they sold to the ARCs. This means banks can buy someone else’s refurbished junk but cannot buy-back its own. 

Banks to formulate policies 

In light of the Guidelines issued, banks will be required make changes in their policies dealing with stressed assets. The following are the changes or policies required:

1. Banks to lay down board approved policies and guidelines for sale of stressed assets, which would include
 
a. Types of financial assets to be sold
b. Norms and procedures for sale 
c. Valuation procedure to be adopted and policy for valuation either to be taken internally or externally.
d. Delegation of powers for undertaking the sale of financial assets 
e. Discount rates used for valuations will be provided for in the policy
f. Minimum percentage/ floor of cash expected in case of sale
 
2. Banks will require a board approved policy for buy-back of financial assets. The policy should provide for facets such as type of assets that may be taken over, due diligence requirements, viability criteria, performance requirement of asset, etc. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
 
3. The existing NPA policies should be reviewed and revised in lines with the Guidelines. 


Selling of bad loans is not a thriving business where price discovery is the primary agenda, neither is broadbasing investors in junk the agenda. However, the Guidelines do focus on sensitising the banks by saying a stitch in time will save nine.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions