Thursday, 16 August 2018

Indian economy to grow at 7.2 per cent in 2018-19, says India Ratings and Research-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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16 Aug 2018


India Ratings and Research (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)


Indian economy is projected to grow at 7.2 per cent in 2018-19, India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) today said. The rating agency earlier forecasted India’s economic growth at 7.4 per in current fiscal. The key reason for this, Ind-Ra said, is the upward revision in the estimation of inflation for 2018-19 due to increasing crude oil prices and the government’s decision to fix the minimum support prices of all kharif crops at 1.5 times the production cost (A2+FL). The rating agency in a report titled ‘Mid-year FY19 Outlook’ said it believes the other headwinds lurking on the horizon are rising trade protectionism, depreciating rupee and, no visible signs of the abatement of the non-performing assets of the banking sector.

“Furthermore, it is taking a tad longer than expected to resolve cases under the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code. “This simply means ‘bringing the stuck capital back into the production process to enhance the productivity of capital’ will be a long drawn-out affair,” Ind-Ra said. Ind-Ra said it expects private final consumption expenditure to grow 7.6 per cent in 2018-19 compared to 6.6 per cent in 2017-18. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The rating agency pointed out that government capex alone will be insufficient to revive the capex cycle, as its share in the total capex of the economy was only 11.1 per cent during 2012-17. “On the other hand, the share of private corporations was 40.9 per cent. As private corporations in combination with the household sector command 77.5 per cent of the total investment in the economy, their capex revival is a must for a broad-based recovery in the investment cycle,” it observed. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Noting that India will face continued headwinds on the exports front, the rating agency said although it expects the annual value of exports to touch USD 345 billion in the current fiscal, crossing the peak of USD 318 billion attained in 2013-14. Ind-Ra said it expects average retail and wholesale inflation in 2018-19 to come in at 4.6 per cent and 4.1 per cent, respectively, as against 4.3 per cent and 3.4 per cent forecasted earlier. “Ind-Ra expects CAD to widen to USD 71.1 billion in 2018-19 from USD 48.7 billion in 2017-18,” it said.

On rupee, the rating agnecy said that in 2018, rupee has already depreciated 7.7 per cent till July in response to elevated global turbulence, worsening of current account, rising inflation and concerns related to fiscal deficit. Ind-Ra said it has maintained a stable outlook on the finances of Indian states for 2018-19. “Ind-Ra expects the aggregate fiscal deficit of the states to moderate to 2.8 per cent of GDP,” Ind-Ra said.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Japan, South Korea steel exports to India surge on tariffs, high-end demand-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions



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16 Aug 2018
 
Steel (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)


India is being hit by a wave of steel from producers in Japan and South Korea, a government document showed, as mills there redirect supply after U.S. President Donald Trump slapped an import duty on the alloy earlier this year.

During the first quarter of the fiscal year starting in April, India’s steel imports from South Korea rose 31 percent from a year earlier, while those from Japan climbed 30 percent, according to an internal document from the Ministry of Steel that was reviewed by Reuters.
The flood of imports is so big that the government in New Delhi is considering measures to control imports, Minister Chaudhary Birender Singh told Reuters. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
    “The concern is there, of course, and if we are to take some measures, we will not hesitate on that account,” Singh said in an interview. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
Between April and June, India became a net importer of steel, with foreign supplies reaching 2.1 million tonnes, 15 percent higher than a year earlier, according to the note.
With the increase, the South Asian nation has now passed the United States as South Korea’s third-largest market for steel, according to data from the Korea Iron & Steel Association.
New Delhi could look at imposing safeguards, said a senior government official, who did not wish to be identified in line with government policy. Under World Trade Organization rules, safeguards are temporary restrictions on imports of a product to protect a domestic industry. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
However, renewed government measures would take place despite India’s domestic steel industry being unable to meet the country’s demand for high-end steel products needed for railroads and structural steel used in construction projects.
India’s imports of steel products used by railways rose to more than 18,000 tonnes during the April to June period compared with 500 tonnes a year earlier, the Steel Ministry note said.
Imports of steel products used in construction more than doubled to nearly 22,000 tonnes during the same period, the note said.
The United States imposed tariffs of 25 percent on steel and 10 percent on aluminium imports in March. South Korea was the fourth-biggest steel exporter to the United States and Japan the 10th largest, the Steel Ministry said in a report in April.
Indian steel manufacturers are also impacted by the tariffs and the country will retaliate with duties on U.S. products that will take effect next month.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Rate hike to keep inflation below 4%: RBI MPC-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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16 Aug 2018

RBI (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)
RBI Governor Urjit Patel voted for a rate hike at its policy meet earlier this month as a step towards keeping inflation below the mandated 4 per cent mark on a "durable basis", according to the minutes of the meeting released today.
Five of the six members of the all-powerful Monetary Policy Committee headed by Patel had voted for a 25 basis points hike in the benchmark lending rate (repo) on August 1. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
It was RBI's second consecutive hike in the repo rate, which has risen to 6.5 per cent. The central bank had hiked the rate at its June policy meet as well.
"As inflation risks have continued to be elevated, I vote for an increase in the policy repo rate by 25 basis points; this action is a necessary step towards securing the mandated 4 per cent inflation target on a durable basis," Patel opined. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
 However, in view of several uncertainties that are present, "I maintain the neutral stance of monetary policy", the RBI Governor added.
RBI Deputy Governor Viral Acharya too voted for a hike in the policy rate as a step towards fulfilling inflation targeting mandate while paying attention to growth. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
"...there is an important interim uncertainty in the form of tariff wars which can rock global growth, financial markets and inflation in abrupt and unexpected ways, I vote to retain the neutral stance of monetary policy," Acharya said.
The minutes further said RBI Executive Director Michael Debabrata Patra said the economy was poised for an acceleration of growth in 2018-19 relative to 2017-18, but the drivers of growth are amorphous at this juncture.
He said softer inflation prints expected in the second quarter of the fiscal could likely lull inflation expectations, but abundant precaution and decisiveness in quelling risks to the target is warranted if the hard-earned gains in terms of macroeconomic stability and credibility have to be preserved.
IIM Ahmedabad Professor Ravindra H Dholakia was the only MPC member who did not favour a rate hike. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
"This is certainly not the time and environment to hike the policy rate. Nor is it the time to tinker with the policy stance. Prudence lies in maintaining status quo on both," he said. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The fourth bi-monthly MPC meeting of the current fiscal is scheduled from October 3-5 here. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Global Markets Sink On Growth Concerns, Turkey Jitters-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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16 Aug 2018
Hong kong financial markets (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)
Stock markets turned lower Wednesday amid concerns about economic growth and continued tensions over Turkey, which announced it was increasing tariffs on imports of some U.S. products. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions



KEEPING SCORE: Germany's DAX fell 1.1 percent to 12,220 and in France, the CAC 40 dropped 1.2 percent to 5,339. Britain's FTSE 100 was down 1.1 percent at 7,525. The futures contracts for the S&P 500 index and the Dow Jones industrial average were both down 0.6 percent.

ASIA'S DAY: Japan's Nikkei 225 index fell 0.7 percent to 22,204.22 and in Hong Kong, the Hang Seng dropped 1.6 percent to 27,323.59. The Shanghai Composite index sank 2.1 percent to 2,723.26, while the S&P ASX 200 in Australia added 0.5 percent to 6,329.00. Shares fell in Taiwan, Singapore and Thailand but gained in Indonesia and Malaysia. South Korea's markets were closed for a holiday.

COMMODITIES: Shares in mining companies were down as the price of commodities fell, with investors appearing to lower their expectations for global economic growth. Shares in Glencore were down almost 4 percent while Rio Tinto was off 3 percent. Oil companies were also under pressure as the benchmark U.S. crude fell 60 cents to $66.44 in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude, used to price international oils gave up 49 cents to $71.97 per barrel. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

TURKEY TURMOIL: Turkey's currency stabilized, rising 4 percent, after authorities sought to ease liquidity problems in the banking system. But tensions continued with the U.S., which had aggravated the crisis, with Turkey imposing new tariffs on U.S. goods. And there is no sign that the president will let the central bank raise interest rates, which economists say it should do urgently to support the currency. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

CURRENCIES: The dollar fell to 111.01 yen from 111.14 yen. The euro slipped to $1.1323 from $1.1348.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Tuesday, 14 August 2018

Nifty, Sensex May Head Higher – Tuesday closing report -The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


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14 Aug 2018

I had mentioned in Monday’s closing report that Nifty, Sensex were under mild pressure. The major indices of the Indian stock markets were range-bound on Tuesday and closed with gains over Monday’s close. On the NSE, there were 848 advances, 877 declines and 349 unchanged. The trends of the major indices in the course of Tuesday’s trading are given in the table below:


Easing wholesale inflation lifted the key Indian equity indices on Tuesday with the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex rising over 200 points. According to market observers, buying activity was witnessed in banking, auto and IT (information technology) stocks. India's annual rate of inflation based on wholesale prices eased to 5.09% in July from a rise of 5.77% in June, official data showed here on Tuesday. However, weakness in the Indian rupee limited the gains on the indices. The rupee on Tuesday touched an all-time low of 70.08 per dollar.

Tata Chemicals reported a 14% increase in its consolidated net profit from operations to Rs270 crore in the quarter ended June 30, 2018 as compared to Rs236.52 crore in the year-ago period. Its income from operations on consolidated basis was at Rs2,769 crore, up by 10% from Rs2,527 crore in the corresponding period last year. The company reported that its income from operations for basic chemistry products at Rs63 crore was up 3%, consumer products segment at Rs108 crore, up 33%, and specialty products at Rs116 crore, up 25%. Company's Managing Director R. Mukundan said: "Our India's Basic Chemistry products business registered a robust performance on the back of improved operational efficiencies, a better sales mix and better realisations.” On the global front, performance of the North American operations reflects planned shut down and Kenyan operations were impaired by heavy rains." He also said the consumer business reported a robust growth on the back of higher volumes from Tata Salt. Tata Chemicals shares closed at Rs673.20, down 0.24% on the BSE.
Tata Steel reported more than double consolidated net profit at Rs1,934 crore in the quarter ended June 30, as compared to Rs921 crore in the year-ago period. Its consolidated revenue from operations during the quarter was at Rs37,833 crore, up 22% from Rs30,973 crore in the corresponding period last year. Speaking on the company's performance, its Executive Director and CFO Koushik Chatterjee said: "The performance in this quarter has been very strong and the India operation delivered a stand-out performance of 31% EBIDTA margin on the back of strong underlying business performance and improved market conditions." "Our quarterly consolidated EBIDTA grew 33% year-on-year and increased to Rs6,559 crore, with an EBITDA margin of 17%," he said. "We are working on seeking all relevant approvals for our 50:50 JV with thyssenkrupp for our European business. We expect underlying steel demand to be strong, particularly in India. However, the rising trade tensions and the impact on the global economic momentum is a cause of concern," its CEO and Managing Director T.V. Narendran said. During the quarter, the steel maker closed the acquisition process of Bhushan Steel under the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code process, it said in a statement. "The funding for the acquisition was designed with a prudent capital structure with significant equity component to ensure future value creation. The integration of the company is underway and is expected to deliver synergies over the next 24 months," Chatterjee added. Its board approved issue of debt securities of up to Rs12,000 crore in the form of Non-Convertible Debentures (NCDs) on private placement basis in one or more tranches. The funds will be primarily deployed towards capex, repayment of debt and general corporate purposes, it said in a regulatory filing. Tata Steel shares closed at Rs578.90, up 1.70% on the BSE.

Energy exploration and production major Oil India reported an exponential increase of 56.19% in its standalone net profit for the first quarter of 2018-19. According to the company, its net profit during the quarter under review rose to Rs703.22 crore from Rs450.24 crore reported for the corresponding period of 2017-18. "Crude Oil price realisation increased by $23.59 per BBl to $72 per BBl in Q1 FY 2018-19 as compared to $48.41 per BBl during Q1 FY2017-18," the company said in a statement. "Average natural gas price realisation during Q1 FY 2018-19 is $3.06 per MMBTU as compared to $2.48 per MMBTU in Q1 FY2017-18." Oil India shares closed at Rs207.90, down 1.73% on the BSE.

Budget passenger carrier SpiceJet has become the first Indian low cost airline to launch a complimentary in-flight entertainment system. According to the company, "SpicEngage", a complimentary in-flight entertainment system allows flyers to access a range of entertainment content at no extra charge. "Unlike traditional in-flight entertainment systems, flyers can easily access SpicEngage on their hand-held devices by following a few easy steps," "The system is currently available aboard all SpiceJet's domestic and international flights." SpiceJet shares closed at Rs88.70, down 0.78% on the BSE.

Two-wheeler major Hero MotoCorp will commence sale of premium motorcycle -- Xtreme 200R, priced at Rs89,900 (ex-showroom Delhi) -- from next week. "Marking the company's re-entry into the premium motorcycle segment, Xtreme 200R is the first among the new range of Hero's premium motorcycles that are slated for launch this year," the company said in a statement on Monday. According to the company, the new motorcycle will be sold at Hero MotoCorp dealerships in a phased manner. "While providing the thrill of riding this bike, the Xtreme 200R keeps the focus on safety with Anti-Lock Brake System (ABS), thereby becoming the first motorcycle in its category to offer ABS as a standard safety feature," the statement said. As per the statement, the new Xtreme 200R is powered by a BS-IV compliant 200cc engine. Hero MotoCorp shares closed at Rs3,266.40, down 1.26% on the NSE.

The top gainers and top losers of the major indices are given in the table below:


The closing values of the major Asian indices are given in the table below:

Major Indices (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)




GDP likely to expand by 7.4% in FY'19: Ficci survey-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


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14 Aug 2018
 
GDP (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)
The Indian economy is expected to grow at 7.4 per cent in the current fiscal, higher than the previous year, said a Ficci survey released today.

Rising oil prices however are putting pressure on the current account, while global uncertainties around trade and financial markets carry serious risks for the rupee, according to the economists who participated in the Ficci's Economic Outlook Survey.

Also, trade tensions between major economies is disturbing the global recovery, it said.

The survey forecasts an annual median GDP growth at 7.4 per cent for 2018-19, with a minimum and maximum range of 7.1 per cent and 7.5 per cent, respectively.

"The projection is in line with the estimates put out by the Reserve Bank earlier this month," it said.

The expansion in the GDP was 6.7 per cent (provisional) in 2017-18.
On the growth in the first quarter of the current fiscal, the survey said the expansion in the economic activity would be 7.1 per cent.

The Central Statistics Office (CSO) is scheduled to release the first quarter GDP number on August 31.

On rupee, the industry chamber said the economists universally believe that the Indian currency will remain under strain.

"Majority of economists believed that the fair value of Indian Rupee vis-à-vis the US Dollar would be in the range of 65 to 66," the survey said.

The study further said the median growth forecast for agriculture and allied activities has been put at 3 per cent for 2018-19.

Although there has been some slippage in the monsoons during June and July, updated forecast for August and September indicate a pick-up in rainfall.
Further, industry and services sector are expected to grow by 6.9 per cent and 8.3 per cent, respectively in 2018-19.

Ficci said the outlook of the economists on inflation seems benign. The Consumer Price Index or retail inflation has been forecast at 4.8 per cent for the year as whole. PTI NKD CS SA SAThe Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


Lower food prices ease India's WPI to 5.09% in July -The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


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14 Aug 2018
 
WPI (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)


Lower prices of food items and primary goods decelerated the rise in India's annual rate of inflation based on wholesale prices to 5.09 per cent in July from 5.77 per cent in June, official data showed on Tuesday.

The data on Wholesale Price Index (WPI) furnished by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry showed that the rate of inflation had increased to 1.88 per cent during the corresponding month in 2017.

"Build up inflation rate in the financial year so far was 2.92 per cent compared to a build up rate of 0.62 per cent in the corresponding period of the previous year," the Ministry said in its review statement.

On a sequential basis, the expenses on primary articles, which constitute 22.62 per cent of the WPI's total weightage, inched up by 1.73 per cent, from an increase of 5.30 per cent in June 2018.

Similarly, the prices of food articles dipped. The category has a weightage of 15.26 per cent in the WPI index. It deflated by (-) 2.16 per cent from a rise of 1.80 per cent.

However, the cost of fuel and power category, which commands a 13.15 per cent weightage in the index, increased at a faster pace of 18.10 per cent from a growth of 16.18 per cent.

In addition, expenses on manufactured products registered a rise of 4.26 per cent from 4.17 per cent.

On a year-on-year (YoY) basis, onion prices soared higher by 38.82 per cent and for potatoes by 74.28 per cent.

In contrast, the overall vegetable prices in July declined by 14.07 per cent, against a rise of 22.01 per cent in the same month a year ago.

Further, the data revealed that wheat became dearer by 6.31 per cent on a YoY basis and the prices of pulses came down by 17.03 per cent, but paddy became expensive by 3.96 per cent.

The prices of protein-based food items such as eggs, meat and fish became marginally higher by 0.87 per cent during the month.

The sub-category of manufactured food products registered a rise of 1.74 per cent.

Fuel-wise, the price of high-speed diesel rose by 22.84 per cent on a YoY basis while that of petrol climbed by 20.75 per cent and LPG by 31.68 per cent.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

July trade deficit widens to $18.02 billion-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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14 Aug 2018
Trade Deficit (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)


India’s trade deficit widened to a more than five year high of $18.02 billion in July, the trade ministry said on Tuesday, driven largely by a surge in oil imports.
Though merchandise exports rose 14.32 percent year-on-year in July, the trade deficit widened as oil imports surged 57.41 percent to $12.35 billion.
In June, the trade deficit stood at $16.6 billion.
Merchandise exports last month rose to $25.77 billion from a year ago, while imports rose 28.81 percent to $43.79 billion, the Ministry of Commerce and Industry said in a statement.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Global Markets Stabilize As Turkey Jitters Ease-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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14 Aug 2018
Malaysia  financial markets (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)


Most global stock markets steadied Tuesday as worries subsided over Turkey's currency crisis and its potential impact on other countries.

KEEPING SCORE: Germany's DAX rose 0.2 percent to 12,376 and France's CAC 40 was up less than 0.1 percent to 5,414 after economic growth figures for the eurozone were revised up. London's FTSE 100 shed 0.2 percent to 7,628. On Wall Street, futures for the Standard & Poor's 500 index and Dow Jones industrial average were up 0.3 percent.

ASIA'S DAY: The Shanghai Composite Index lost 0.2 percent to 2,780.96 while Tokyo's Nikkei 225 added 2.3 percent to 22,356.08. Hong Kong's Hang Seng declined 0.7 percent to 27,752.93 and Seoul's Kospi advanced 0.5 percent to 2,258.91. Sydney's S&P-ASX 200 advanced 0.8 percent to 6,299.60 and India's Sensex added 0.6 percent to 33,751.22. Benchmarks in Taiwan, New Zealand and Southeast Asia also advanced.

TURKISH TURMOIL: Turkey's lira stabilized near record lows amid hopes that Turkey is in talks with the U.S. to ease tensions between the sides. Turkey's central bank also earlier announced measures to help its banks, but economists say that what's needed is an interest rate increase of several percentage points. The lira is down over 40 percent this year as investors question whether President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's government can cope with problems including a diplomatic spat with Washington that has resulted in higher U.S. tariffs. Erdogan has ruled out an interest rate hike, which can slow economic growth, but analysts say one is urgently needed to stabilize the currency.

CONTAGION FEARS: Emerging markets had fallen Monday on concern that Turkey's turmoil could highlight similar problems in their economies. The Argentine peso and India's rupee hit a record low against the dollar. But those jitters eased somewhat later Tuesday.

ANALYST'S TAKE: Asian markets were "relatively more resilient" to Turkey jitters than South Africa and Latin America were, said Philip Wee and Radikha Rao of DBS Group in a report. But they said the U.S. tariff hike on Turkish steel at a time of "considerable stress" tells emerging economies not to expect Washington's help to calm their markets. "Expect more stress if the Fed continues to look past the emerging market turmoil (like it did in May) and keeps to gradual rate hike path," they said.

CHINA COOLING: Growth in factory output, consumer spending and retail sales in July were weaker than expected, adding to signs of an economic slowdown. Factory output rose 6 percent over a year earlier, in line with the previous month but below forecasts. Retail sales gained 8.8 percent, down from June's 9 percent. Investment in factories and other fixed assets grew 5.5 percent in the first seven months of the year, down from 5.7 percent in the year to June. Forecasters have expected economic growth to decline since regulators tightened lending controls last year to rein in surging debt.

ENERGY: Benchmark U.S. crude gained 89 cents to $68.09 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude, used to price international oils, added $1.03 to $73.64 per barrel in London.
CURRENCY: The dollar gained to 110.81 yen from Monday's 110.73 yen. The euro declined to $1.1406 from $1.1411.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions