Nifty, Sensex volumes dry up as market heads higher – Wednesday closing report-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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7 June 2017

I had mentioned in Tuesday’s closing report that Nifty, Sensex were still on an uptrend. The major indices of the Indian stock markets were range-bound on Wednesday and closed with small gains over Tuesday’s close. The trends of the major indices in the course of Wednesday’s trading are given in the table below: The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Major Indices (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

The Indian equity markets traded on a flat note during the mid-afternoon session on Wednesday as investors were cautious ahead of the outcome of the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meet due later in the day. However, a better-than-expected monsoon forecast by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), coupled with healthy buying in healthcare, consumer durables and automobile sectors, kept market sentiments buoyed. Auto, FMCG (fast moving consumer goods) and healthcare stocks shone, whereas IT (information technology) sector traded in negative after Tuesday's positive movement, pointed out market analysts. On the NSE, there were 868 advances, 608 declines and 76 unchanged. On the BSE, there were 1,465 advances, 1,191 declines and 147 unchanged.

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) in its second review for FY2017-18 on Wednesday kept all key policy rates unchanged while seeking to achieve consumer price index (CPI) inflation of 4%. The repo rate under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) will remain at 6.25%, while reverse repo rate will be at 6%. The marginal standing facility (MSF) rate and the bank rate will be steady at to 6.50%. The major indices closed quietly at the end of trading on Wednesday with small gains. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Rebranding itself, air compressor major Elgi Equipments Ltd is looking at acquiring distributors overseas to increase its market share at a fast pace and also set up assembly lines abroad, a top company official said on Wednesday. Targeting to become number two in the global compressor market by 2027, the company hopes to touch a revenue of $1 billion in five years’ time from the current revenue of around $230 million. "Our acquisitions will be in developed markets like the US and Europe. We are looking at acquiring existing distributors in those markets," Managing Director Jay Varadaraj told reporters. Agreeing that the target was certainly a "Hanuman" jump from the current position, Varadaraj said he was confident of achieving the target owing to the product's technology. He claimed that Elgi's air compressors were more power-efficient than competing products in the overseas markets. The company’s shares closed at Rs205.10, down 1.47% on the BSE. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Reliance Communications (RCOM) on Wednesday disagreed with rating actions by credit rating agencies Moody's and Fitch. "In May 2015, RCOM issued 6.5% coupon bearing USD bonds, maturing in November 2020, for an aggregate amount of USD 300 million. These bonds constitute 4% of the total debt of the company.  "The bonds have always been serviced regularly on the due dates and are fully current in servicing, as on date. The company had stated, vide its notice to Stock Exchanges dated 24 May 2017, that the company will continue to pay interest on the respective due dates, and the bonds will be repaid on the due date of November 6, 2020," an official statement by the company said. "The ratings by Moody's and Fitch apply only to these USD bonds. We respectfully disagree with the recent rating actions by both these agencies, and believe that these rating actions do not reflect the servicing track record of the company," it added. The statement said the rating agencies have not given due credit to the advanced stage of the corporate transactions (Aircel merger and Tower sale) which are expected to deleverage the company's balance sheet by around $4 billion, that is, by 60% within the next few months. "It appears that the recent positive development of the standstill period agreed by our lenders has been viewed negatively by the Rating Agencies on certain technical grounds, while in actual fact the same directly addresses their key concerns about the short term liquidity situation," the company said. The company’s shares closed at Rs19.35, down 3.73% on the BSE.

Thanks to the Jio launch that attracted 100 million subscribers in its first six months, India has reached 15th spot in the 4G availability globally, a survey by London-based wireless coverage mapping company OpenSignal revealed on Wednesday. According to OpenSignal's "State of LTE" report, India had 71.6% 4G availability in the third quarter of 2016 which jumped to 81.6% in the first quarter of 2017. However, when it comes to 4G download speed, India lagged. The 4G download speeds averaged 5.1 Mbps in the country, dropping more than a megabit per second in just six months.  "These 4G download speeds are only marginally faster than the average global 3G download speed which is at 4.4 Mbps," the findings showed. Availability levels of other operators than Jio in the Indian market still hovered around 60%. Reliance Industries shares closed at Rs1,339.20, up 1.96% on the BSE.

The top gainers and top losers of the major indices are given in the table below:

 

Top Gainer (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

The closing values of the major Asian indices are given in the table below: The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Asian Indices (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

RBI keeps repo rate unchanged at 6.25%-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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7 June 2017

 

R.B.I (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions) 

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) in its second review for FY2017-18 on Wednesday kept all key policy rates unchanged while seeking to achieve consumer price index (CPI) inflation of 4%. The repo rate under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) will remain at 6.25%, while reverse repo rate will be at 6%. The marginal standing facility (MSF) rate and the bank rate will be steady at to 6.50%. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

In a statement, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) says, "The current state of the economy underscores the need to revive private investment, restore banking sector health and remove infrastructural bottlenecks. Monetary policy can play a more effective role only when these factors are in place. Premature action at this stage risks disruptive policy reversals later and the loss of credibility. Accordingly, the MPC decided to keep the policy rate unchanged with a neutral stance and remain watchful of incoming data."

The Reserve Bank says it will continue to work in partnership with the government to address the stress in banks’ balance sheets. Better alignment of administered interest rates on small savings with market rates and stepped-up recapitalisation of banks to facilitate adequate flow of credit to productive sectors are important steps to follow through.

"The MPC noted that incoming data suggest that the transitory effects of demonetisation have lingered on in price formations relating to salient food items, entangled with excess supply conditions with respect to fruits and vegetables, pulses and cereals. At the same time, however, the latest release from the Central Statistics Office (CSO) on national income accounts and industrial production attest to the effects of demonetisation on the broader economy being sector specific and transient, as well as to the noteworthy resilience of private consumption. At this stage, it is difficult to isolate these factors or to judge the strength of their persistence. As the year progresses, underlying inflation pressures, especially input costs, wages and imported inflation, will have to be closely and continuously monitored," the central bank added.

On 31 May 2017, the CSO released quarterly estimates of national income accounts for Q4 of 2016-17, provisional estimates for 2016-17 and revisions for the preceding five years. The growth of real gross value added (GVA) for 2016-17 has been pegged at 6.6%, 0.1 percentage point lower than the second advance estimates released in February 2017. 

 

R.B.I Chart(The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions) 

RBI says, "Underlying the revision is a downward adjustment in services sector growth in Q4 for the constituents of construction, financial and professional services, and real estate. Estimates of agriculture and allied activities have been upgraded to incorporate the all-time high production of foodgrains and horticulture in the year. GVA in industry has also been placed higher in the provisional estimates relative to the earlier reading to reflect the impact of new indices of industrial production (IIP) and wholesale prices (WPI) rebased to 2011-12. The new data reveal that a slowdown in activity in both industry and services set in as early as Q1 of 2016-17 and became pronounced in Q4. Moreover, the deceleration of activity coursing through the year has had underlying drivers that have been in operation since Q2. Components of aggregate demand reflect a contraction in gross fixed investment in Q4, reversing the turnaround evident in the second half of the year in the advance estimates. This is also reflected in the contraction  in  the  production  of  capital  goods  in  the  new  IIP.  However, private final consumption expenditure recorded robust year-on-year growth." The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

RBI says, five members of the Committee were in favour of the monetary policy decision, while Dr Ravindra H Dholakia was not in favour. The minutes of the MPC’s meeting will be published by 21 June 2017. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Here are the latest policy rates following MPC review… 

Repo Rate......................6.25%

Reverse Repo Rate.........6%

Bank Rate......................6.50%

IPOs, bonus issue, share gifts exempted from capital gains tax-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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7 June 2017

India on Tuesday amended its income lax law to exempt genuine equity investments through initial public offerings (IPOs), bonus or rights issues by a listed company from long-term capital gains tax even if no securities transaction tax (STT) was paid.

The amendment provides that "the condition of chargeability to STT shall not apply to all transactions of acquisitions of equity shares entered into on or after the first day of October 2004," a Union Finance Ministry release said here, notifying three types of transactions where the provision shall apply. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The three transactions attracting the provision are "acquisition of listed shares in preferential issues of a company whose shares are not frequently traded in a recognised stock exchange, acquisition of existing listed equity shares in a company not through a recognised stock exchange of India and acquisition of shares of a company during the period of its delisting," it said.

For these three categories, payment of STT will be mandatory to avail benefit of capital gain exemptions. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The amendment has been introduced after the Income Tax Department detected that shell companies were being created by entering into fake transactions, and unaccounted income was being routed into these firms to avail long-term capital gains benefit. It has been designed to spare genuine transactions. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

"In order to curb the practice of declaring unaccounted income as exempt long-term capital gain by entering into sham transactions, the Finance Act, 2017 amended the provisions of Section 10 (38) of the Act to provide that exemption under this section for income arising on transfer of equity share acquired or on after 1st day of October, 2004 shall be available only if the acquisition of share is chargeable to STT," the ministry said.

"However, to protect the exemption for genuine cases where the STT could not have been paid, it was also provided that the central government shall notify the acquisition for which the condition of chargeability to STT shall not apply," it added. 

The amendment also exempts holding-subsidiary transactions, or those involving mergers and demergers, equity investments made by a non-resident Indian under foreign direct investment (FDI) regulations and employee stock options or gifts in the form of shares from long-term capital gains tax. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

It provides that capital gains exemption will be available in case of share acquisition (without STT) made by non-residents and venture capital funds under the specified situations, for share acquisition made under employee stock ownership plan (ESOP) or approved M&A schemes and the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) guidelines.

It also extends relief to share acquisition, which has been approved by the Supreme Court, high court, National Company Law Tribunal, Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) or Reserve Bank of India (RBI). The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Commenting on the development, Abhishek Goenka, Partner and Leader Direct Tax, PwC said: "The notification comes as a breather for foreign investors and venture capital houses as well as shareholders, who have acquired shares upon corporate restructuring undertaken vide court approved schemes on which no STT was paid."

"The government has now provided a final list of transactions on which long-term capital gains tax shall be exempt in spite of STT not having been paid at the time of acquisition. Effectively, the notification covers 'all transactions' barring three specified transactions," Goenka said in a statement here. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The government has now carved out exceptions with respect to court-approved schemes, FDIs and investments made by a venture capital company. "The notification clearly intends to allow genuine transactions on the benefit arising from Section 10(38) without making any exceptions," he added. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

A crucial aspect of the notification is granting of exemptions to tax-payers, who have received shares in the course of employment (ESOP). The government has specifically excluded ESOPs from being taxed, even though no STT may have been paid at the time of acquisition.

"Framing laws that tackle abuse is always very difficult to balance with ease of doing business. This government's and the Department of Revenue's approach of open, rational and balanced dialogue with Industry has been evident from its start," Indian Private Equity and Venture Capital Association (IVCA) Chairman Gopal Srinivasan said.

"This is a wonderful example of ease of doing business, as it is in an area where tough laws and ease of investing are now in harmony in this remarkable new anti-abuse taxation rule, for lightly-traded listed company shares," he added. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Reliance Life planning IPO-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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7 June 2017

The board of Reliance Nippon Life Asset Management Ltd (RNAM) has given its approval to list the company's equity shares on the bourses, the company said on Wednesday.

In a statement issued here, RNAM said its board of directors have given their nod to list the company's equity shares on the stock exchanges subject to necessary regulatory and corporate approvals. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

RNAM is the asset manager to Reliance Mutual Fund and will be the first among the top three players in the asset management sector to list its shares on exchanges.

"The proposed listing of RNAM would facilitate sharing of value with the retail investors applying for its IPO (initial public offering)," the statement said.

Discussions with merchant bankers, lawyers and auditors for IPO process would be initiated soon, it said, adding that the percentage of dilution, which shall be subject to regulatory norms, is yet to be decided. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

"As a part of financial inclusion we have been creating wealth for mutual fund unit holders. Now we also believe it's an opportunity for retail investors to participate as equity shareholders in the asset management company. Along with further consolidations happening in economy we would like to be ready to take advantage of suitable acquisitions," RNAM Executive Director and CEO Sundeep Sikka was quoted as saying in the statement.

During the year ended March 31, 2017, the company announced increase of 25 per cent on its assets under management (AUM) to Rs 3,58,059 crore ($55.1 billion) over last year; an increase of nine per cent in its total income to Rs 1,436 crore ($221 million) over last year and a 16 per cent increase in its profit before tax to Rs 581 crore ($90 million).

RNAM is a subsidiary of Reliance Capital Limited (RCL), with Nippon Life Insurance Company as its strategic partner. RCL holds 51 per cent of the total issued and paid-up equity share capital of RNAM.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Global Stocks Mixed After Wall Street Decline-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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7 June 2017

Global Stocks (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

Global stocks were mixed Wednesday following Wall Street's decline as traders looked ahead to British elections. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

KEEPING SCORE: France's CAC 40 gained 0.3 percent to 5,284.92 and London's FTSE 100 added 0.1 percent to 7,536.38 in early trading. Germany's DAX was unchanged at 12,685.47. On Tuesday, the DAX lost 1 percent and the CAC 40 was off 0.7 percent while the FTSE 100 was flat.

ASIA'S DAY: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.2 percent to 3,140.32 and Tokyo's Nikkei 225 was unchanged at 19,984.62. Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 0.2 percent to 25,941.89 and Seoul's Kospi shed 0.4 percent to 2,360.14. Sydney's S&P-ASX 200 was unchanged at 5,667.20 and India's Sensex was flat at 31,186.97. Benchmarks in Taiwan and Southeast Asia gained while New Zealand fell.

WALL STREET: U.S. stocks declined for a second day after bad news for retailers and banks. Macy's sank more than 8 percent after warning profit margins might be weaker. Banks fell as the yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped, which would mean lower rates on loans and smaller profits. The Standard & Poor's 500 index fell 0.3 percent to 2,429.33. The Dow Jones industrial average slid 0.2 percent to 21,136.23. The Nasdaq composite index lost 0.3 percent to 6,275.06.

ANALYST'S TAKE: "The U.K. election result will give direction to sterling and the future Brexit talks," Margaret Yang of CMC Markets said in a report. "'Risk-off' sentiment is likely to prevail as any surprises from the U.K. election, the ECB's policy outlook or changes in the White House could significantly impact the market. This has led to a hunt for safety, with gold, silver and the Japanese yen advancing to their highest levels in a month." The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

BRITISH ELECTION: Prime Minister Theresa May called a snap vote in hopes of increasing her Conservatives' majority ahead of Brexit talks. But after two deadly attacks, the focus shifted to security, raising questions about May's record as a former minister in charge of security services. Opinion polls show various results from a Conservative lead to a dead heat with the opposition Labour party.

TRUMP TROUBLES: The White House and its allies are scrambling to offset potential damage from fired FBI Director James Comey's congressional testimony about his discussions with President Donald Trump about the investigation into Russia's possible election meddling. Comey's testimony Thursday will be his first public comments since he was abruptly ousted by Trump on May 9. The former director's associates say Trump asked Comey if he could back off an investigation into Michael Flynn, who was fired as national security adviser because he misled the White House about his ties to Russia. To undermine Comey's credibility, White House officials and an outside group plan to hammer him for misstatements he made about Democrat Hillary Clinton's emails during his last appearance on Capitol Hill.

ECB WATCH: Investors looked ahead to Thursday's policy meeting of the European Central Bank. Following a recent decline in inflation, the bank is not expected to signal it is ready to ease up on monetary stimulus, even though growth across the region has picked up momentum.

QATAR TENSIONS: Kuwait tried to mediate an end to a diplomatic rift between Qatar and its neighbors that has roiled energy markets. Saudi Arabia and other Arab powers cut land, sea and air routes into the peninsula nation on Monday over accusations it supports extremist groups and Iran. Qatar is one of the largest suppliers of natural gas and is a base for some 10,000 American troops. Qatar denies funding extremists. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

ENERGY: Benchmark U.S. crude retreated 32 cents to $47.87 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract jumped 79 cents on Tuesday to close at $48.19. Brent crude, used to price international oils, shed 42 cents to $49.70 in London. It rose 65 cents in the previous session to $50.12. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

CURRENCY: The dollar declined to 109.28 yen from Tuesday's 109.39 yen. The euro retreated to $1.1262 from $1.1278.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Nifty, Sensex still on an uptrend – Tuesday closing report-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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6 June 2017

I had mentioned in Monday’s closing report that Nifty and Sensex were on an uptrend.

The major indices of the Indian stock exchanges closed with minor losses over Monday’s close. The trends of the major indices in the course of Tuesday’s trading are given in the table below:

 

Major Indices (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

Indian stocks declined the most in over a week as investors held back their bets ahead of the central bank’s policy decision due Wednesday.

The S&P BSE Sensex fell nearly 0.4% to 31,190 while the NSE Nifty 50 index too dropped 0.4% to 9,637. Earlier, the 50-share benchmark managed to open above the 9,700-mark for the first time ever. The market breadth turned in favour of the bears by the end of trade. About 5 stocks declined to every 1 that gained on the NSE. BSE Mid-cap Index closed down 0.6% at 14732 whereas, BSE Small-cap Index closed down by 0.6% at 15310. There were 527 advances, 1107 declines and 320 unchanged stocks on NSE, reflecting fairly bearish undertone floating in the market. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Caution reigned across markets in a week loaded with risk events, from former FBI chief James Comey’s congressional testimony to the ECB’s policy meeting and Britain’s increasingly uncertain election.  Gold headed for a seven-month high and the yen rose to the strongest since April, while 10-year Treasury yields fell to the lowest since November. The dollar traded at an eight-month low and U.S. stock futures slipped. Europe’s benchmark share index fell the most in a week led by Swiss pharmaceutical company Roche Holding AG after one of its drug studies disappointed. South Africa’s rand slumped after the country fell into a recession for the first time since 2009. Gold climbed 0.9% to $1,291.24 an ounce, advancing for a third day to the highest since November on a closing basis. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Nifty edged down on Tuesday after earlier surpassing the 9,700-point level for the first time, as markets took a breather from a record-hitting spree a day before the central bank's policy meeting. The Reserve Bank of India is likely to keep interest rates unchanged at 6.25% at its review on Wednesday, but likely to sound less hawkish than the last monetary policy committee meeting. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Sentiment was also subdued after Asian shares fell amid a slew of risk factors, including escalating tensions in the Middle East, the coming testimony of the former FBI director, British elections and a European Central Bank meeting.

Indian shares end lower after shedding early gains. The benchmark BSE index also followed suit, opening at an all-time high of 31,420.85. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

ITC Ltd's shares fell as much as 2.6% in their biggest intraday percentage drop in over a month and were among the top percentage losers on the NSE index. India Grid Trust fell as much as 6.3%in its debut due to a lack of investor familiarity with infrastructure investment fund. Among gainers, State Bank of India rose as much as 2% to its highest in two weeks after a share sale to institutional investors to raise as much as $2.33 billion was fully covered within hours of the launch on Monday. Adani Enterprises Ltd surged as much as 6.90% to its highest in one week, after the company gave final investment nod for the Carmichael coal mine and railway in Australia. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

IT stocks were on a roll on Dalal Street, mainly led by gains of heavyweights like TCS, Infosys and HCL Tech. These stocks jointly contributed to the BSE IT gains and pushed it up by 2.6%. India Grid InvIT listed on the bourses at Rs99.02 per share at a discount of 1.6%. The IPO of India Grid InvIT to raise Rs2,250 crore was subscribed 65% on the last day of the offer. Tata Motors declined nearly 4% intraday basis after reporting subdued UK sales growth by Jaguar Land Rover (JLR), closing at Rs461 lower by 3.4%. Tata Elxsi surged 5.11% extending its Monday's gains after the company announced that its driverless car platform is selected by leading original equipment manufacturer. The stock closed at Rs1540 higher 3.2%.

The top gainers and top losers of the major indices are given in the table below:

 

Top Gainer (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

The closing values of the major Asian indices are given in the table below: The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Asian Indices (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

India to receive 98% monsoon, forecasts IMD -The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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6 June 2017

India will receive 98 per cent rainfall during this monsoon between June to September with an error estimate of four per cent, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Tuesday.

Earlier on April 18, based on then available weather patterns the IMD had forecast a normal monsoon with average rainfall of around 96 per cent on the whole, with an error estimation of plus-minus five per cent. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

"The final forecast based on different models suggests that the season's rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be 98 per cent of the long period average (LPA)," M. Mahapatrta, IMD scientist, told. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The IMD in its forecast said that the long period average rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1951-2000 was 89 cm. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Individual prediction based over broad geographical areas suggest that central India, that includes Odisha, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Maharashtra and Chhattisgarh, will get 100 per cent of the LPA. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

"The season rainfall is likely to be 96 per cent of LPA over northwest India, 100 per cent of LPA over central India, 99 per cent of LPA over south peninsula, and 96 per cent of LPA over northeast India, all with a model error of plus-minus eight per cent," the IMD said.

Under northwest India fall Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Haryana, Delhi, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir and Rajashtan. 

Under south peninsula fall Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Kerala, the Lakshadweep, and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.

Under northeast India come Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland and Arunachal Pradesh. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

"Monthly rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 96 per cent of its LPA during July and 99 per cent during August both with a model error of plus-minus nine per cent," the IMD said. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

However, the experimental forecast based on one of the models -- Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecasting System (MMCFS)-- suggests that the monsoon rainfall during 2017 would average 100 per cent over the country as a whole and was likely to be with an error estimation of plus-minus five per cent. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

According to the weatherman, below 90 per cent rainfall is considered deficient and at 95 per cent, it is considered below normal. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

A figure between 96 and 104 per cent of rainfall indicates a normal monsoon and between 105 and 110 per cent above normal. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions