Thursday, 29 June 2017

No dialogue till India withdraws troops: China -The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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29 June 2017

China on Thursday said the withdrawal of Indian troops from what it said was its territory was a "precondition" for a "meaningful dialogue" over the border stand-off.

This means the pilgrimage to Kailash Mansarovar, put off by China in the wake of the stand-off between Indian and Chinese troops, won't resume till both sides sort out their row in the area Donglong which Beijing calls its own. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

"We urge the Indian side to withdraw troops back to the Indian side of the boundary," Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lu Kang said. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

"This is the precondition for the settlement of the incident and also the basis for us to conduct a meaningful dialogue. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

"I think diplomatic channel of communication remains unimpeded," he added.

China also brushed aside Bhutan's protest against Beijing building a road towards a Bhutanese Army camp in Zomplri area of Doklam or Donglong, calling the "construction "just and lawful in Chinese territory". The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Donglong and Doklam is a disputed territory between China and Bhutan where troops from the People's Liberation Army and the India Army had scuffled. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

"Donglong has been Chinese territory since ancient time. This is an indisputable territory and we have adequate legal basis concerning this," Lu said. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


"And this is just a sovereign action by China to conduct the road construction in its territory. This is totally justifiable and lawful."The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

France's 2017 Deficit Could Be Above EU Limit For 10th Year-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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29 June 2017
France's (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

France's national audit office says the country's budget deficit could stand above the EU limit of 3 percent for the 10th consecutive year in 2017. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
In a report published Thursday, the Court of Auditors points to "insincerity" in the budget prepared last year by the previous government of Socialist president Francois Hollande.
It said that "the forecast of revenues appear overestimated and the expenses clearly underestimated."
The audit office estimates the deficit could reach 3.2 percent this year, instead of the forecast of 2.8 percent. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
The government of newly-elected president Emmanuel Macron is expected to announce budget cuts to correct the situation. Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire ruled out any tax rise earlier this week.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Tuesday, 27 June 2017

Nifty, Sensex May Try to Rally a Bit – Tuesday closing report-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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27 June 2017


I had mentioned in Friday’s closing report that Nifty, Sensex may correct a bit. On Monday the stock exchanges were closed on account of id. The major indices of the Indian stock markets suffered a correction on Tuesday and closed around 0.60% lower than Friday’s close. The trends of the major indices in the course of Tuesday’s trading are given in the table below: The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
Major Indices (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

The Indian equity markets traded in the red during the post-afternoon session on Tuesday, as caution ahead of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) launch and selling pressure in banking, capital goods and automobile stocks subdued investors' sentiments. Equity benchmarks started off on a positive note. However, gains were ceded on the back of profit booking and caution over GST implementation, pointed out market analysts.  Except for FMCG (fast moving consumer goods) and consumer durables, all other sectors traded in the red with oil and gas, auto and metals bearing most of the brunt. On the NSE there were 302 advances, 1,179 declines and 35 unchanged. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

However, with political stability in India, foreign institutional investors are likely to bring investments to the Indian stock markets. The true recognition of political stability came in the hug that President Donald Trump gave Prime Minister Modi in Washington D.C. The dialogue between the two countries in Washington D.C. was meaningful. The long term trend for the Indian stock markets is clearly bullish. Drug maker Lupin's founder and Chairman Desh Bandhu Gupta passed away here on Monday. He was 79. Lupin shares closed at Rs1,064.00, up 0.30% in the BSE. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Lenders might need to raise provisioning to deal with large stressed assets, credit ratings agency Crisil said. "Based on Crisil's assessment of embedded value in the top 50 NPA (non-performing asset) cases, we estimate a 60% haircut would be needed on these loan assets," said Krishnan Sitaraman, Senior Director, Crisil Ratings. "That would mean banks will have to increase provisioning by another 25 per cent this fiscal, compared with nine per cent in the last." Recently, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) referred 12 large NPAs (non-performing assets) in the banking system for resolution under the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code, 2016 (IBC).  "A time-bound resolution of these cases will indeed be a big positive for bank balance sheets," the ratings agency said in a statement. As per Crisil's study banks had already provisioned 40 per cent for these 12 large NPAs worth Rs2 lakh crore before the RBI's move.  The S & P BSE Bankex closed at 26,234.14, down 1.45% on the BSE. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The top gainers and top losers of the major indices are given in the table below:
 
Top Gainer (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

The closing values of the major Asian indices are given in the table below: The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
Asian Indices (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

Banking Ombudsman to look into complaints of mis-selling by banks-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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27 June 2017

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said, its Banking Ombudsman Scheme would now include, deficiencies arising out of sale of insurance, mutual fund or other third party investment products by banks as well as complaints regarding mobile banking and electronic banking service in the country. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

In a notification, RBI says, "The pecuniary jurisdiction of the Banking Ombudsman to pass an Award has been increased to Rs20 lakh from existing Rs10 lakh. Compensation not exceeding rupees hundred thousand can also be awarded by the Banking Ombudsman to the complainant for loss of time, expenses incurred as also, harassment and mental anguish suffered by the complainant." The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


RBI has also revised procedure for complaints settled by agreement under the BO Scheme. Another important change is a customer can now file an appeal for complaints closed under Clause 13 (c) of the existing Scheme relating to rejection, which was not available earlier.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

RIL to seek shareholders' approval to raise Rs 25,000 cr-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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27 June 2017

Reliance Industries on Monday said that it will seek shareholder's approval to issue redeemable non-convertible debentures on private placement basis to raise Rs 25,000 crore.

The company told the BSE that it will hold its fortieth annual general meeting (AGM) on Friday, July 21, 2017 in Mumbai. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

According to the agenda of the AGM, the company seeks shareholders approval to offer or invite subscriptions for secured, unsecured redeemable non-convertible debentures, in one or more series, tranches, of an aggregate nominal value up to Rs 25,000 crore, on private placement.

Further, the company will seek shareholders approval to declare a dividend at the rate of Rs 11 per equity share of Rs 10 each fully paid-up of the company for the financial year ended March 31, 2017. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


Other important agenda items include re-appointment of Nita M. Ambani as a Director of the company. She retires by rotation at the upcoming AGM meet.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Loan Waiver: Rural borrowers distinguish between bank and MFI Loans-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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27 June 2017
 
Farmer (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)
News flow on farm loan waivers may not have a material negative impact—at least as far as Maharashtra is concerned -- and borrowers appear to understand that the waivers being announced are for agri loans from banks while loans (availed) from micro-finance institutions (MFIs) are different, says a research note. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

In the report, Credit Suisse says, "The borrowers we spoke to generally understood the distinction between farm loans that are being waived by the state government and microfinance loans. The chatter specifically about loan waiver for MFI loans peaked during the local election phase, and is now absent. Fear of bad bureau scores, and reinforcing behaviour by MFIs, like fresh loans only to customers with full payment track-record, has helped. Also, the fact that government machinery had only recently worked to clarify the status of MFI loans post demonetisation (i.e., as loans from legal private companies, who are regulated by Reserve Bank of India and who report all loan details to credit bureaus) helped stem any voices out to cause confusion." The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

The report is by Credit Suisse after field visits at the offices of Bharat Financial Inclusion Ltd (BHAFIN) in Vidarbha region of Maharashtra, one of the most affected regions post demonetisation. This area accounts for 5% of the nationwide portfolio of BHAFIN, the country's largest MFI. It says, “The company has not been adding any new borrowers since demonetisation. Fresh loans are disbursed only to fully current borrower groups. This seems to have helped reinforce better behaviour. Borrowers we spoke to were aware of the credit bureaus.” The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Credit Suisse says during February-March, or at the peak of elections, collections for BHAFIN bottomed at about 55% in Vidarbha region. "Since then, collections have recovered swiftly—currently running at 85-90%.  The company has added more resources, including senior management who had experience handling Andhra Pradesh issue in 2010, to focus on the area. New client acquisition has not yet started, unlike elsewhere in the country, and loans are given only to borrowers or groups without any overdue, which is the norm in any case. The time freed up in afternoons (since no new customers are being acquired) is being used (by BHAFIN) to visit affected villages and convince borrowers to come forward and pay."

"There was also some regrouping done like clubbing fully current borrowers into the same group so that they can be treated as normal groups for disbursement purposes, which also had a signalling effect. We also believe that the weekly model followed by the company helped contain losses (smaller ticket size of instalments, frequent borrower interaction). Other than Grameen Koota (recently acquired by IDFC bank), no other MFI follows weekly collections here," the report says. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

According to Credit Suisse, the Vidarbha region saw significant political interference in the aftermath of demonetisation—with local politicians eyeing a series of local elections. 


"Our discussions made us conclude how easy it is to spread rumours in villages. For instance, after demonetisation, there were rumours that BHAFIN company has closed down and all loans are being waived. The company officials had to make frequent trips to the village and also rope in local administration to quell the rumours. Another well-known micro-finance company is now suffering a similar rumour! Another rumour sometime back was that Rs10 coins have been demonetised, that resulted in borrowers walking in to pay their instalments in bags of coins," it added.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

European Stocks Dented By Surge In The Euro-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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27 June 2017
European stock (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)

 European stock markets fell sharply Tuesday as the euro surged on comments from European Central Bank President Mario Draghi. Shares in Alphabet Inc., Google's parent company will be in focus later after the EU slapped its biggest-ever fine on the internet giant for breaching antitrust rules with its online shopping service. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
KEEPING SCORE: In Europe, Germany's DAX was down 0.5 percent at 12,704 while the CAC 40 in France fell 0.7 percent to 5,261. The FTSE 100 of leading British shares was 0.2 percent lower at 7,435. Wall Street looked poised for a soft open with Dow futures and the broader S&P futures down 0.1 percent. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
DRAGHI SPEECH: The ECB president gave the euro a big lift after displaying optimism over the future of the economy of the 19-country eurozone. A raft of economic indicators has shown the single currency bloc to be gaining momentum. While not going so far as to say the ECB was ready to rein back its stimulus measures, Draghi did alter his language slightly to the extent that traders think that a change of policy could be coming in the next few months. Though saying the eurozone required "considerable" stimulus that was perceived as a modest change in tone to the previous form of words of "very substantial." The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
ANALYST TAKE: "While Draghi is among the more dovish policy makers at the central bank, there has been persistent speculation that the ECB will announce further reductions in asset purchases later this year and a more positive assessment of the economy from the President may suggest he's willing to back it," said Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at OANDA.
EURO SPIKES: That's certainly the conclusion in the currency markets, where the euro surged 0.9 percent to $1.1277. The higher currency hurt stocks as traders fretted over its impact on exports and on the prospect of looser monetary policy in the future.
YELLEN'S TURN: How the euro ends the day could hinge on comments later from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, who is due to address an audience in London on a host of international matters. The Fed has been gradually raising its key interest rate from record lows and hints about the pace of more hikes will be of interest to investors. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
GOOGLE FINE: Aside from the central bankers, the focus in the markets has been on the whopping 2.42 billion-euro ($2.72 billion) fine the EU has slapped on Google. The European Commission, which polices EU competition rules, alleges Google elevates its shopping service even when other options might have better deals and said the company "gave prominent placement in its search results only to its own comparison shopping service, whilst demoting rival services." Google has been given 90 days to stop or face further fines of up to 5 percent of the average daily worldwide revenue of parent company Alphabet. Google says it is considering an appeal. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
ASIA'S DAY: Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 0.4 percent to 20,225.09 while South Korea's Kospi added 0.1 percent to 2,391.95. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index edged 0.1 percent lower to 25,839.99. China's Shanghai Composite Index added 0.2 percent to 3,191.20. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 slipped 0.1 percent to 5,714.20. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

OIL: Benchmark U.S. crude rose 56 cents to $43.95 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent, the international standard, gained 69 cents to $46.52 per barrel in London.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Saturday, 24 June 2017

Friday, 23 June 2017

Nifty, Sensex May Correct a Bit – Weekly closing report-The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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23 June 2017

I had mentioned in last Friday’s weekly closing report that Nifty, Sensex were to move sideways. The major indices of the Indian stock markets have been range-bound over the week’s trading and closed on Friday with little change over last Friday’s close. Nifty, in particular, closed with a minor loss for the week. The trends of the major indices in the course of the week’s trading are given in the table below: The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions
 
Weekly Indices (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)
Cheered by positive global cues and buying in banking, metal and capital goods stocks, the Indian equity markets surged on Monday, the 30-scrip Sensitive index (Sensex) of the BSE closing at another fresh high. Shares of major banks rose and added to the gains on reports that Prime Minister Narendra Modi will review the measures taken by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to resolve the non-performing assets (NPA) issue of the Indian state-run banks. The Bank Nifty index scaled a record high of 23,806.65 points. The wider Nifty of the National Stock Exchange (NSE) rose by 69.50 points or 0.72% to close at 9,657.55 points. Besides, investors' sentiments were buoyant after the GST Council on Sunday unanimously agreed on the July 1 rollout of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) regime.  However, the BSE market breadth was bearish -- with 1,467 declines and 1,218 advances.

Prolonged outflow of foreign funds and selling pressure on banking and FMCG stocks wiped off the morning gains and led the Indian equity markets to close on a flat-to-negative note on Tuesday. However, positive European markets and healthy buying in consumer durables, IT, and oil and gas stocks limited the downslide. The wider Nifty of the National Stock Exchange (NSE) inched lower by 4.05 points, or 0.04%, to close at 9,653.50 points. The 30-scrip Sensex of the BSE, which opened at 31,392.53 points, closed at 31,297.53 points, down 14.04 points, or 0.04%, from its previous close at 31,311.57 points. The Sensex touched a high of 31,392.53 and a low of 31,261.49 points during intra-day trade. The BSE market breadth was bearish with 1,428 declines and 1,229 advances. In terms of the broader markets, the BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices outperformed the Sensex. The S&P BSE mid-cap index was up 0.19% and the small-cap index by 0.19%. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

On Tuesday, Tata Motors was the top gainer on the Sensex as its parent was said to be considering an initial public offering in luxury car-maker unit Jaguar Land Rover. Shares of Lupin fell by 1.9% after Credit Suisse said the price erosion risk faced by the company is highest as 75% of USA profit is from low-competition products. Shares of the logistics companies rallied anywhere between 2% and 9% as the country geared up for the launch of unified tax regime, GST. European stocks rose, heading for their best three-day rise since April, boosted by gains in media shares and optimism about the US economy.

Engineering and construction major L&T rose on high volumes on reports the Government of India offloaded a part of its stake in the company via block deals on Wednesday. According to reports, the Government of India sold 2.5% stake in the company via block deals on the stock exchanges on Wednesday, 21 June 2017. On the BSE, 2.39 crore shares were traded on the counter as against the average daily volumes of 1.97 lakh shares in the past one quarter. Most PSU bank stocks rose. Private bank stocks saw mixed trend. Most metal and mining stocks fell. 

Meanwhile, on Wednesday, media reports suggested that ABB India is in discussions with L&T to acquire the latter's electrical and automation division. According to reports, ABB has offered over Rs14000 crore for the deal and discussions are yet to arrive at a final figure. In a separate development, NHPC announced after market hours on Tuesday, 20 June 2017 that it awarded EPC contract for the development of 50 megawatts (MW) Solar Power project in Tamil Nadu to L&T for an amount of Rs287.48 crore. The project is slated to complete in 9 months.

Taking cue from global markets the key Indian equity market indices on Thursday opened higher. The Sensitive Index (Sensex) of the BSE, which had closed at 31,283.64 points on Wednesday, opened higher at 31,351.53 points. It touched a new high of 31,522.87 points during intra-day trade.  On the NSE, there were 621 advances, 1,045 declines and 81 unchanged.

After two days of corrections, the Indian equity markets closed on a flat note during Thursday's trade session. With speculation on further interest rates hikes from the US government, stock markets in India were being hesitant about new market rallies even in the middle of a reasonable South-West monsoon and good domestic economy trends. Medium term investors could expect to book profits by Diwali. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

On Thursday, buying in stocks of banking majors such as State Bank of India, Axis Bank and HDFC Bank lifted the market sentiment. Bank Nifty closed at 23,736.10, up 0.12% on the NSE.


The Indian equity markets traded in the red throughout Friday as broadly negative global cues, coupled with caution ahead of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) implementation and selling pressure in automobile, capital goods, oil and gas and banking stocks, subdued investor sentiments. At the close of trading on Friday, the major indices closed with losses over Thursday’s close.The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Home Loan: Affordable housing finance share to increase to 37% by FY2022 -The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

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23 June 2017
 
Home Loan (The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions)
Accelerated urbanisation due to faster economic growth over the last decade and a half has created a massive need for affordable housing as well as home loans in the ticket size of up to Rs15 lakh, says a research note. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

In its report, India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) says, "Affordable housing finance, largely for loan ticket size up to Rs15 lakh will become a large segment for housing finance companies (HFCs) in the next five years, with the estimated share to increase to around 37% in FY2022, compared with 26% in FY2017." The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Ind-Ra says it anticipates a demand for 2.5 crore homes, which is four times of the entire current housing finance stock, over next five years, in the medium income group (MIG) and lower income group (LIG) categories. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

"A combination of factors like government financial and policy thrust, regulatory support, rising urbanisation, increasing nuclearisation of families, and increasing affordability is converting latent demand into a commercially lucrative business opportunity," the ratings agency added.

Ind-Ra expects the sector to attract over Rs20,000 crore of equity inflows over FY2017-FY2022, which would support growth. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

Ind-Ra's analysis reveals that on operating cost metrics, the new entrants with their pan-India ambitions would need to build scale quickly to compete with the incumbents, whose regional-focussed models have helped maintain tight operational expenses (opex) ratios, in addition to their funding cost advantage. 

This, Ind-Ra says, entails building up the book at a rapid pace and hence will lead to high proportion of unseasoned portfolio at any point in time. To offset this, it would necessitate having the right people “with adequate skill-set”, who have seen various cycles and scale and the right 'processes', building a scalable credit funnel and robust underwriting platform while getting the pricing, including risk and opex adjusted spreads, right. These would be the key differentiators for the new age housing finance companies (HFCs). The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions

According to the ratings agency, informal credit assessment remains the crux for the segment, and therefore reasonable assessment of instalment-paying ability, while keeping sufficient margin for income volatility over lifecycle, would be of prime importance.

Talking about key risks and possible mitigants, Ind-Ra says, aggressive expansion without ensuring appropriate credit assessment could be a risk for the segment, especially in view of limited financial data available and possibly a less financial savvy customer segment. 

"In addition, the segment requires high customer connect, therefore, attracting and retaining people with on ground connect would be of prime importance," the ratings agency says, adding, "HFCs would need to build a sense of ownership, as well as develop a right incentive structure to manage this risk. Operationally, managing liquidity, mainly in view of long tenure nature of assets, would be key consideration." The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions


Ind-Ra says it expects a prudent asset liability tenure management by HFCs. "Informal credit assessment remains the crux for the segment, and hence reasonable assessment of instalment paying ability while keeping sufficient margin for income volatility over lifecycle would be of prime importance," it concluded. The Total Investment & Insurance Solutions